Goodbye Melky, hello (again) Javier

[Sam56]

"Around 8:00 AM EST this morning, Brian Cashman made a deal to bring back a starter most Yankees fans remember.

The Yankees re-acquired former All-Star Javier Vazquez. They also got left-handed reliever Boone Logan from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Aroyds Vizcaino.

This is a major and surprising move by the Yankees to add another starter to the rotation, especially since most felt Vazquez wasn't ever coming back to the Yankees.

Vazquez was the ace for the Yankees back in 2004, where he went 14-10 with a 4.91 ERA and 150 strikeouts in 198 innings.

He was an All-Star for his great first half, but Vazquez imploded in the second half and was even worse in the postseason with a 9.91 ERA.

The last image most Yankees fans had from 2004 of Vazquez was his surrendering of Johnny Damon's grand slam in Game Seven of the ALCS against the Red Sox.

In early 2005, Vazquez was a part of the mega-trade that sent him to the Diamondbacks for Randy Johnson in early 2005.

During the 2004 season, Vazquez was just 27 years old and was trying to carry an American League pitching staff when he was so young and inexperienced.

Now, entering the 2010 season, Vazquez will be 32, and he will not be expected to be the ace like he was in '04.

Vazquez joins a pitching staff with C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte, so Vazquez can just relax and go pitch like he always does, which might end up being a great thing.

In 2009 with the Braves, Vasquez went 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP with 238 strikeouts in 219.1 innings.

Since 2000, Vazquez has had nine seasons where he has pitched in 200 innings or more, missing the feat the one time in 2004 (by two innings), but the Yankees are getting back a guy who eats up innings and will be very durable going into the 2010 season.

With the Vazquez trade, it means that either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain will begin the 2010 season in the bullpen.

With the Yankees trading Melky Cabrera to the Braves, it means they are still looking for someone to play left field. There are still three options out on the market they can look at.

There is Matt Holliday, who seems to have only negotiated with the Cardinals.

There is Jason Bay, who has only negotiated with the Mets.

And of course, there is last year's left fielder Johnny Damon, who may need to take a lot less money and back off his contract demands if he wants to come back to the Yankees.

Many felt Melky could be the new left fielder, but with the trade, it is almost certain that the Yankees are going to continue adding to their team.

Overall, it is a very shocking trade to see happen, but the Yankees wanted to add a starter to the rotation and they got one with the trade for Vazquez. It could work out a lot better than it did in 2004, mostly because of the experience Vazquez has gained in the five seasons he was away from the Bronx.

It also still leaves a spot open in the lineup, something Cashman still needs to address and could be his next move.

His ERA is surprisingly low, especially when Vazquez used to average somewhere in the 4.00 area with the Diamondbacks and White Sox. Maybe, as he has gotten older, Vazquez has learned how to become a better pitcher to go along with his stuff."

To me this is also a very surprising move. But with the innings he's throwing now, last years 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP with 238 strikeouts in 219.1 innings record.  And all the pressure gone, plus the experience he gained, Cashman could have pulled off one of the steals of the off-season.

[Chris]

Well, there's the starting pitcher I was looking for...

I like this move. I always liked Vazquez although he clearly wasn't an ace. I like him alot as a #4 starter.

Damon returning seems likely.

Sam, thanks for these updates.

[Gmo11]

Vazquez put up great numbers pitching in AAAA baseball.  We've been down this road before with him and we're about to go down it again.  I wouldn't exactly say it worked out well the first time around did it.  Some people just can't handle the pressure and scrutiny of playing in NY or Boston I was pretty clear that he was one of them but apparently Cashman needs more convincing.  Besides that I always liked Melky.  He was a clutch hitter, fun around the clubhouse and always had a smile on his face.  He would never make an all star team but he was a solid solid player for the Yanks.  Then you factor in Dunn who was a very good lefty in the minors and that vizcaino guy who while only 19 has been clocked at 97mph.  This seems like an awful lot to give up for a guy who has already failed miserably with this team but hey thast just me.

[Chris]

Gmo, to be fair to Vazquez, he was a first half All-Star for us, got injured and wasn't as effective in the second half. He got thrust into a no-win situation in the ALCS after Kevin Brown spit the bit.

If he pitches 200+ innings this year and wins 12-15 games with an high-3/low-4 ERA (his basic stat line pitching for the White Sox) I'll be happy.

[Sam56]

"If he pitches 200+ innings this year and wins 12-15 games with an high-3/low-4 ERA (his basic stat line pitching for the White Sox) I'll be happy."

So will I.

If he becomes our steadfast #4 pitcher (just do what he did last year - 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP with 238 strikeouts in 219.1 innings), I'll
be thrilled and that will make this a great trade.

[Gmo11]

The stats are overwhelming when it comes to NL vs AL.  Look at Brad Penny and John Smoltz.  Those guys were cover your eyes awful for the Red Sox, they go to the NL and are all stars again.  Vazquez is going the opposite way.  His numbers will become worse than last year, possibly much worse.  When you factor in the added pressure of New York and his career numbers against the Red Sox being absolutely atrocious this has "bad ending" written all over it.  Plus as I said before, I really liked Melky and thought he was a very solid player.  Those two pitchers aren't terrible either.  If they had made that trade for a guy like Lackey I'd be much much more on board.  Instead they made that trade for a Yankee washout who salvaged his career pitching against inferior competition in the NL.  I'm not a fan.

[Chris]

He has decent experience in the AL - Penny and Smoltz had none. He won a championship with the White Sox (where he actually salvaged his career), averaging 13 victories a year for them with an ERA in the 4.00 range. He won 14 games and had a sub-4.00 ERA with us. His career W-L is better in the AL than the NL. His career starts vs. the Red Sox are respectable.

Bottom line, would you trade a # 4 outfielder and two prospects who may or may not pan out for a # 4 starter and bullpen pitcher? I would.

[Gmo11]

He played in Chicago for the other chicago team and while better than he was with the Yankees was hardly the stud he was in the NL.  Penny and Smoltz were almost dominant in the NL and were utter trash in the AL.  The difference is huge.  Melky may have been a #4 outfielder this year, though as things stood at the time of the trade he was the starting LF but Dunn has had nothing but success in the minors and the other kid throws 97 at age 19.  Those aren't exactly a couple of throw ins.  The free-agent pitcher from the A's Justin Duchererererer thats the guy I wanted.  He was fantastic two years ago and was hurt last year.  He would have come cheaper and most likely provided similiar production and maybe even better.  Plus they could have kept those 3 young players.

[Chris]

Once again, Vazquez was an All Star when he was with us; he won 14 games and had a sub-4.00 ERA with us. We're not talking about Ed Whitson here.

We're also not talking about two career National League pitchers coming over here. This guy has AL experience and has won and pitched well. I can also point to pitchers who've been quite successful making the switch: Josh Beckett; Pedro Martinez; Curt Schilling.

Vazquez doesn't have to be a stud or an ace. We're asking him to be a # 4 starter. Pitch 200+ innings, win 12-15 games, be competitive. I think he can do it and the fact we gave up last year's # 9 hitter and some prospects is not a huge price to pay. If those prospects amount to anything it might happen in a few year's time. Vazquez helps the team this year, something that Dunn and Vizcaino most definitely will not.

Duchscherer rejected the A's arbitration offer, despite missing all of last season due to injury. I don't think he's going to come cheaply to anyone.

[Gmo11]

The 3 guys you mention are hall of famers, Javy is hardly that.  Sure if you're a Hall of Famer you can go from the NL to the AL and have success but Vazquez is just a regular run of the mill guy.  Dominant in the NL, mediocre in the AL.  Remember, I'm the guy that gave you AJ Burnetts end of the season stats one week after the trade happened based on, as crazy as it may sound, his entire body of work prior to this season.  AJ will always be a just over .500 guy with a just over 4.00 ERA.  That's who he is and always will be.  Javy, but the way, posted a 4.91 ERA in his one season with the Yanks which is why they dumped him first chance they had.

Lets take a look at Vazquez recent seasons and predict where he might end up at the end of the year:

In 2006 he was 11-12 with an ERA of 4.84  for the White Sox
In 2007 he was 15-8 with an ERA of 3.74    for the White Sox
In 2008 he was 12-16 with an ERA of 4.67   for the White Sox
In 2009 he was 15-10 with an ERA of 2.87  for the Braves

He has been in the league 11 seasons total which is more than enough to establish a baseline of what he is or is not.  He has a career record of 142-139 and a career ERA of 4.19 though he has only had 4 seasons out of 11 under 3.91

So what does this tell me? To me what we can expect out of Javy playing for a pressure packed team he has already washed out from, in the toughest division in baseball, going from borderline minor league competition to the big leagues is the following:

11-15 with an ERA in the 4.7 to 5.0 range.  Now he does eat up innings and he does get a bunch of strikeouts, but is that enough to warrant this trade?  I say no.  He's getting paid too much money and the Yanks are giving up too much for what they will (projectedly) be getting back for him.  Like I said those kids were good by all estimations.  The Yanks have a very good team as it is, World Champs to be precise, and were finally in a position to NOT have to go nuts in "Win now at all costs" mode.  They finally had a chance to really hang on to some of these young talented kids.  If not Duchserer, there are other guys who could have given them close to Vazquez's production and cost the team only money which is not a problem.  To me, even Ben Sheets would have been a better move despite rolling the dice if the guy can stay healthy.  Plus, what happens if what I projected here actually happens and people (fans and the media) flip out and want his head on a stick.  Is he equipped to handle adversity?  Do the Yanks do another panic trade to get him out of town?  Or worse, what if he falls below my projected stats and is even worse.  He's had worse seasons than that before?  Now people will really lose their minds about this.  It just seems uneccesary to me.

Heres the bottom line: Are they a better team in 2010 after making this trade?  Yes, they probably are because now either Hughes or Joba can head to the bullpen and they added a kinda sorta good pitcher to the back of their rotation.  But what about the future?  The whole reason they turned this ship around was because they stopped trading away young talent and let them play.  I'm no scout, I don't pretend to be, but I do know I saw Dunn pitch and he has some talent.  Whether he can harness it is anybody's guess, but he does have talent.  And the other guy throws 97 at age 19.  I don't care if he has talent or not, you can't teach 97mph.  They can spend the next 5 years of his life working with him to get him to control that power but the power is clearly there.  I'm not saying the guy is good or not, just that he has a rare ability to throw a baseball that hard. 

[Chris]

Gmo, 11-15 games with a 3.75-4.75 ERA is, I think, all you can ask for a # 4 starter. I also believe Vazquez makes $11M this year and Melky makes $3M. $8M seems to be the going rate for a starting pitcher of any quality these days. Personally, I am not looking for a world-beater; I would not be surprised if he's not even in the postseason rotation. Bottom line, the rotation is now better than it was last season.

I would have liked them to take a shot with Sheets, too; I have always liked that guy.

The Yanks didn't win the WS last year because they let the kids in their farm system play; they went out and bought three of the top FA available to add to their already loaded roster. I wish I could point to all of our success being a result of our crack scouting and deep farm system. That's not this team; Steinbrenner never had patience and he's transferred that to his sons as well as the GM.. Bottom line is this is a year-to-year process, not a long-term one. The only long term development seems to be with pitching. I have made peace with this - I don't have to necessarily like it.

[Gmo11]

I agree they won it last year thanks largely to the play of CC and Tex, but almost the entire bullpen was brought up through the minors.  And those guys were the real difference between last year's team and the year before.  Mussina actually won more games than CC did (note: i'm not making the ridiculous claim that Mussina is better, just that he had more wins) and the offense was pretty similar just not as potent when it mattered.  THe biggest difference in my opinion was the bullpen.  Where would they have been withot Aceves, Robertson, Hughes, Coke, etc.  Marte and Bruney were the only guys out there to my recollection that were brought in from the outside and Bruney has since be pushed off the roster by the kids.  Robertson in particular looks like hes an absolute stud in waiting.

There is no telling what the guys they traded will turn out to be, just that they seem to have good potential.  There is no way to be sure what Javy will do with the Yankees, just what we can infer based on his previuos seasons.  I expect 4.7 to 5.0 as an ERA and a bunch of losses though I hope that I'm wrong.  They are better than they were without him I agree completely, but I don't think he was worth the price in salary and the price in prospects.  I feel like they should have been able to either get somebody better for that price, or just go the free-agent route and pick up one of the other guys out there.

[Chris]

Gmo, I hear what you're saying about the bullpen. It seems every year the team drafts a boatload of pitchers, almost exclusively. It would appear the longterm plan is develop pitchers in-house. I have to assume that Vizcaino and Dunn did not play into the long-term plans. At the very least, I'm glad they're at least trying to develop something in-house at this point.

How did you feel about acquiring Granderson? We gave up quite a bit of prospects in that deal.

[Gmo11]

Without being privy to that inner workings of the team none of us know what the team really thought of Dunn and Vizcaino.  You could be absolutely correct in that they didn't have plans for them in the future anyway.

I was more of a fan of the Granderson deal, but that was when Melky was still on the team of course.  I think that deal is going to be made or broken by who they get to play LF.  Granderson can't hit lefties.  This is no secret.  He is an upgrade defensively and with his power so over Melky he's a better overall player, but Melky has a better average and against lefties its not even close. 

They are going to need somebody that can spell Granderson against lefties every once in a while.  I think its obvious that when a lefty is on the mound he will be batting 8th or 9th anyway, but it would be nice to have something other than a guaranteed out sitting in the 9 hole.  This year Melky batted 9th most of the time and he was hardly a sure out.  If they could have had Melky as the LF and then the CF against a particularly tough lefty I think the Granderson move was great. 

Coke was a good pitcher, but he was a shell of himself by the end of the season and far passed by Marte.  Jackson was supposed to be a prized prospect but the kid only hit 4 homers in AAA with a ton of strikeouts to go with it.  It was becoming more and more obvious that he was not a blue chipper.  His ceiling is basically what Granderson is right now and Granderson has been doing it against big leaguers for a few seasons now.  Kennedy I did like and was a little sad to have given up.  He looks to me to be a very good player in the future.  I think the Yanks probably gave up a little more than they got back, because of Kennedy, but I understand why they made the move and its hard to be too upset about it.

[retrojint]

Javier is the answer to a trivia question.  I was listening to ESPN radio while in the car last week.  One of the announcers said that Vasquez is in company that includes Walter Johnson, Tom Seaver, Don Sutton, Jim Bunning and a couple of other HOFers, along with Mickey Lolich who is not in the HOF, as the only pitchers to win 10 games and strike out 150 batters for 10 consecutive seasons.  As noted above, he was pitching very effectively for the Yankees until he hurt his shoulder.  As far as the NL-AL ERA splits, it's been a long-established extension:  add .5 runs a game.  He would still be under 4.  He looked very good last season for Atlanta.  Total command of his pitchers.  Excellent spinner that he was throwing about 60 percent of the time for strikes (when he wanted to),which is an incredible percentage for a breaking ball. 

Cabrera is a marginal talent who looked better than he was because he saw fat pitches hitting in the 8 and 9 holes of a great lineup.  In fact, he probably won't start for the Braves.  I am concerned about giving up Dunn, who has extraordinary stuff, for a pedestrian, shopworn lefthander like Logan.  I guess the Braves insisted on that aspect to the deal.