re: NFL Draft - BPA Argument

[todge]

By virtue of the fact that the Giants don't know if Sintim can actually play the position is even more of a reason why the team needs to drarft another Sam.  Not to mention the fact that there is no depth behind Sintim.

[Painter]

Although the fact that the Giants invested a higher pick in a SLB, last year than has been their habit, I hope it wont close their minds in regard to any and all LB positions in the draft or whatever there is in FA.

In any case, whatever the Giants do, Sintim will be given every opportunity to prove his value and worth. But what lingers in my mind and, perhaps, in todge's as well, is whether the Giants decision to draft Sintim was for him to be their nearly every down Sam of the future, or as more as a situational pass rusher?

I have seen enough of Sintim to be confident that he can be a topnotch pass rusher; he has the quicks, the variety of moves, and the strength to be that even in a 4-3. That may well have been the principal factor in their decision.  Frankly, I think that Ernie Accorsi mantra that you can never have too many good pass rushers has been fully subscribed by both Reese and Coughlin in respect of Strongside LB. That's not to say that they regard run and pass defense as unimportant, but I don't know that it has been given equal or greater importance. Of course, they have been starting Danny Clark there whose only real merit is that he's a pretty decent run defender. He's certainly no pass rusher, and of course, he had only limited opportunity to play pass as he was subbed out in the Nickel.

Despite suggestions by some, although by no means everyone, that Sintim can be beat on runs to the outside, I have seen no evidence of that. He has good instincts, takes good angles, and is a sure tackler. In fact, he has looked quite speedy to me. And you certainly don't have to worry about his inside run defense where he excels.

His pass coverage is a different issue. Some say that he struggles covering in space while others have suggested that he was second only to Aaron Curry as a complete LB in last year's draft. My view is that it's hard to know given that he so rarely had a coverage role in UVa's 3-4 scheme.

That brings me back to where I started which is the question, what exactly are the Giants priorities in regard to their SLBs, and has it changed in any way?  For quite some time, it has emphasized pass rush and run defense almost exclusively.  Personally, I expect the Giants to give a priority to Linebacker in the Draft but to inside not outside unless it's an OLB who they think could fill the bill in the middle. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility that they might take a look at Sintim inside.

I have to admit that I am conflicted in trying to make a case for an impact Strongside LB. When I look around the league, I just don't find them. The vast majority of impact LBs play in the Middle or Inside, or on the Weak Side, whether in a 4-3 or 3-4. That's not say that there are no really good, even impact type Sams, but they are the exception that prove the rule.

Cheers!

 

[NYSPORTS]

Best player available vs Player of need varies

Player of need:

I believe you draft a position of need when your team is so deficient at one position the rest of the team can fail to function.  

Best player available Pros/Cons:

Pros:  It makes more sense in the long term having the superior player in your lineup

Cons: Detroit kept drafting receivers b/c they were the best available player.  This resulted in huge holes elsewhere and from a receiving standpoint the law of diminishing returns took place (or the players just weren’t that good anyway)

For the Giants draft, I’m a huge Iupati fan yet was surprised how poorly he was in pass protection.  Can Iupati be another Faneca for 10 years or will the Giants go with a position of need like safety?  Does the safety grade higher at #15?  Is a safety grade at #15, 16 picks better than a healthy Kenny Phillips?

[bamagiantfan]

It is my opinion that if the Giants can land a difference maker at DT and/or Alford can return from injury and be a passrushing force in the middle, that the Giants Defense will be noticably improved in all areas. Lack of a formidable pass ruch makes even all-pros look feeble at LB and DB. The Giants remain stacked with Defensive ends and tried to improve the DT position through Free Agency prior to last season. It didn't work and injuries to Tuck, Bernard, Canty, and Alford made it worse.

If the Giants can come out of this draft with one of the top 2 DTs (as they see it), this draft will be a success IMO. If those two are gone and they are forced to look elsewhere then the pressure will be on Canty and Alford (and Cofield and Robbins if they return) to improve dramatically from last season, and on Fewell to find some way to generate a consistent pass rush.

As well as the Offense played at times last season, the difference in making the playoffs or not making the playoffs comes down to the play of the Defense. If they could have generated one or two more stops a game, it is not hard to argue that the Giants would have finished with 2 or 3 more wins. That would have been enough to secure a playoff spot, or perhaps even the division.

[ViewFromSection129]

  Great thread all.  Really good reading.

  In the end, I agree with what was said earlier about all the positions of need on the Giants defense.  There will be little doubt that a stud DT, LB, or S will be there at 15.  It will be all about picking the right one.  All I care about is getting someone that is a player and has speed.  Our defense is woefully slow and vulnerable to TE's and RB's out of the backfield.  We need speed up the middle in the worst way.

[Painter]

There really isn't much pro and con involved unless a team is without obvious need. In that case, they would go the general upgrade route, or trade out and stockpile for the future. That's not our heroes, so it's essentially academic.

Except, perhaps, for Crazy Al, it seems fair to say that teams assemble their draft value boards to address their positions of need: areas of obvious weakness which must be strenghthened, on the one hand; and on the other, with a list of draft candidates who may satisfy those needs. What we don't know, but speculate about- along with the now more draft sites than there are players in the draft- are the grades each team may assign to a particular player. Indeed, we also don't know precisely the relative importance the team may place on a specific need. And it is the latter which may dispose a team to "reach" in our view based on opinions we form in one way or another to satisfy our own conceits. However, it probably is safe to say that teams lacking an above average QB, are those more disposed  to "reach" for one.

That's not to say that a team will not otherwise take a player with a lower draft grade to meet a position of greater need in a given slot. In essence what they are doing is calculating that they will be getting a much better player than anyone they currently have on the roster at the position, while the odds suggest to them that they may not be able to accomplish the same a round later.

It also is not to say that teams always will be in agreement on the grades they assign to a particular player. They may have more skill and experience, and far more information than we, but like all human beings they hold no lien on infallibilty.

As to whether the Giants decision to draft a Safety would depend on his having a higher draft grade than Kenny Phillips had last year- not that we are privy to it- I think not.  For the sake of discussion let's imagine that Earl Thomas and Taylor Mays are available to the Giants at 15. The decision to choose one or the other of them will be relative not to Kenny Phillips, who he will not be replacing, but to one of the other Safeties on the roster. The goal would be to pair one of them with Kenny Phillips and thus turn what was a glaring weakness, last year into an area of strength this year and beyond.

It seems to me that enaging in some sort of relativity analysis from one draft to another, from one set of circumstances to another, is inviting paralysis in a process that is served best by absolute conviction.

I'll give you another example in which relative comparsions could lead us to a paralysis of over-analysis. Let's imagine that the Giants consider MLB to be their most pressing need in the Draft. Would they demur in considering McClain or Spikes at 15 on the basis that Malaluga and Laurinainitis went in Round 2, last year? I rather doubt it.

Each year, needs and opportunities most often are different. Whereas we fans tend to focus on maximums, teams are more likely to focus on optimums in their effort to stengthen their areas of weakness. In that regard, they take account of an entire draft, undrafted players, and free agency in the effort. Success results less from any one individual part than from the cummulative sum. I'm not sure that have the attention span to enage in sums.

Cheers!

[NYSPORTS]

Those calculations must not have added up when drafting Kiwi then.

[Painter]

What calculations didn't hold? That Accorsi drafted a position that wasn't a high priority despite his exclaimation that, "You can never have too many good pass rushers"? Was he unsure as to how much longer Strahan would play- two years at it turned out. Or did they think they were getting their future Sam LB? Was Kiwi simply a reach at 32 in your view? Even though they got a 3rd and 4th Rounder in swapping 25 for 32?

Was it that the Kiwi pick might be seen as the exception which proves the rule? Or was it that the Giants had a poor draft overall in '06 and thus proved quite clearly that they hold no liens on infallibity? Not so hot with their additions or sums either- certainly not after the Kiwi pick, in any case.

Enlighten us, please.

Cheers!

[worf49]

I know we are in serious need of a MLB, however it seems to me our need at interior DT is greater.

If we have a player or players at the DT position that can disrupt plays consistently it makes everyone's job far far easier.

I would take Mike Price in a heartbeat even if Mc Clain were to somehow become available.

Hopefully, the player we draft at #15 will make a serious impact on our defense.

[todge]

I know we are in serious need of a MLB, however it seems to me our need at interior DT is greater.

That is certainly debatable worf.   This team has three starting level DTs in Alford, Canty and probably Cofield; however, they do not have any starting calibre MLBs on this roster at all.  I would be absolutely shocked if the Giants passed on a MLB like McClain and drafted another DT.  I just can't see that happening.

[jimmyz]

Best player available at a postion of need?  Or best player available at the position of need?  We have a few need positions so if McClain is not there dont just expect the Giants to draft Spikes. 

BTW, when the draft rolls around I fully expect Weatherspoon to place himself firmly in Rd1.  He is reportedly moving up after his Senior Bowl performance.

[NYSPORTS]

I know we are in serious need of a MLB, however it seems to me our need at interior DT is greater.

  This team has three starting level DTs in Alford, Canty and probably Cofield;

I'd be careful on that DL.  Alford, like Osi, might not come back at full strength.  Besides training camp, Alford hasn't really shown much so let's not bank on him.  Canty still hasn't really played DT which leaves the Giants will basically Cofield and Bernard.

[Philosophers]

Does anyone think maybe the Simtin experiment at SLB will end and he will get moved to DE so he doesn't have to get exposed for his weaknesses (coverage) and can focus on his strengths (forward speed to get to QBs)?  Got to think the experiement with him may end, especially if Osi fails to regain form and Perry wants to play him at DE along with MK and move Tuck inside on occasion.  Thoughts?

[todge]

Sintim has never played DE.  So if the Giants move him, once again he would be learning a new position - which might set him back another year.  He would also be on the "small" side for a DE as the Giants like their ends to be two-way, three-down players.  He might be able to fit as a DE in another system, but I don't see that happening with the Giants.

Philosophers - I never said that the Defensive Line is fine and okay as is.  What I did say is that if a MLB and a DL are available at #15 and have equal ratings - the Giants will certainly take the MLB.  Why?  Because they don't have anyone on this roster who is starting calibre - while they do have two to three starting calibre DLs.  MLB isn't a position of need - it is a position of desperation!

jimmyz - Weatherspoon is a solid 1st Round pick but at 15, that may be a little high.  Because some scouts are concerned about what many have termed "stiffness" in his play - the Combine will go a long way in dispelling or confirming that report.

[jerseyguy]

I would hate to see us move Sintim to DE because that will mean we made a mistake in drafting another project player instead of getting what we drafted him to be, a SLBer, I would hope that the Kiwi experiment should have taught us something there...