re: NFL Draft - BPA Argument

[tomeee]

leaving us with the big decision, Spikes....OR........our second rated DT........... or our top rated safety.

Or as Billbob mentioned trade up and get who they feel is the BPA at a position of need. If the Giants rate McClain as having the talent they would be silly not to trade up. Sometimes quality is better than quantity, how many of those extra picks last year even made the roster.

[todge]

McClain will NEVER get past Parcells at 12.

Welcome aboard bigbluefaninfla - hope you have been staying warm!

Anyway - let's not forget that Miami runs a 3/4.  Everyone is looking for pass rushers .. especially rushbackers in that scheme.  McClain is not a pass rusher and is a better fit in the 4/3.  So I wouldn't say that McClain is a lock for Miami.  Furthermore, they have to intrigued by someone like Dez Bryant as they don't have any WRs on that roster.

[UncannyGfan]

Sometimes quality is better than quantity, how many of those extra picks last year even made the roster.

The Jets in 2007 getting Revis and Harris is good example of that.

[jerseyguy]

Also, as far as Sintim is concerned if you read Painter's comments I think we need to give the kid a chance this season and see what he brings to the table. Sintim is a physically talented player and hopefully, with good coaching and hard work, he will be an outstanding SLB.

I never stated worf that Sintim wouldn't make it.  What I did say is that he didn't show a lot this year to instill a lot of confidence that he will be a good Sam.  He MAY work out ... but then again, he may never be able to be a good coverage LB.  Bottom line is that we don't know.  Regardless, there is no depth behind him - so another Sam is a no-brainer as far as I am concerned.

I also support enhancing the Defensive Line.  However given the choice of a MLB or a DL, I just can't see the Giants passing on someone like McClain and taking someone like Price.  The defensive line needs enhancing but the linebacker position needs a transplant.

what you've just said here about Sintim and his coverage skills is something that has bothered me this year, since we haven't seen much of Sintim its hard to pass judgement on him too quick but if it does work out that he has no coverage ability then we're right back where we were before we drafted him and that is having a SLB who is a liability against the pass. I'm thinking this inability to stop the short pass has been going on for too many years now and players like Witten and Cooley have been eating our lunch there for a long time, we need a good coverage LBer and we need him now...

[state_property]

Fantasy Giants Off-Season Acquisition:

- Pry Demeco Ryans from Houston with 2010 1st & 3rd (likely minimum going-rate)
- Sign Dansby (only UFA LB in top-10) to long term deal
- Deal Osi to a team for 2010 1st & 4th picks (thats VERY generous, but 2nd/4th maybe)
- Draft McClain/Spikes with 1st pick & Jones/Allen with 2nd...or draft best available LB and Jones/Allen with both 2nd round picks.

That gives the Giants a Ryans, Dansby, Boley line-up with McClain/Spikes for depth.  Also, the backfield of Phillips & Jones/Allen gives us speed and coverage .

IMHO, this would give us the best opportunity to defend the run and pass equally well and a great shot to play in Dallas in February!

[andrew_nyg]

Fantasy Giants Off-Season Acquisition:

- Pry Demeco Ryans from Houston with 2010 1st & 3rd (likely minimum going-rate)
- Sign Dansby (only UFA LB in top-10) to long term deal
- Deal Osi to a team for 2010 1st & 4th picks (thats VERY generous, but 2nd/4th maybe)
- Draft McClain/Spikes with 1st pick & Jones/Allen with 2nd...or draft best available LB and Jones/Allen with both 2nd round picks.

That gives the Giants a Ryans, Dansby, Boley line-up with McClain/Spikes for depth.  Also, the backfield of Phillips & Jones/Allen gives us speed and coverage .

IMHO, this would give us the best opportunity to defend the run and pass equally well and a great shot to play in Dallas in February!

How do you draft McClain/Spikes when you dealt the 1st round pick (along with the 3rd) for Ryans?
No way you get anywhere near a 2nd and 4th for Osi...not to mention a 1st.

[state_property]

How do you draft McClain/Spikes when you dealt the 1st round pick (along with the 3rd) for Ryans?
No way you get anywhere near a 2nd and 4th for Osi...not to mention a 1st.
----------------------------
That would be if they got a 1st for Osi..which I said would be generous.  If Detroit can pull off the deal of the century with what Dallas gave up for an under-performing RW...why cant we assume we can get either a 1/4 or 2/4 for Osi.  That sounds like an Al Davis trade to me 

[Painter]

There seems to be no debate- nor should there be- about BPA (unqualified) versus Positions of Need (Best player available at position inferred). What we will be discussing from now to the draft are our views of the priorities in regard to positions of need, and which "available" players we feel can best meet those needs.

There does seem to be a general consensus that the middle of the defense needs attention and should be addressed in FA and/or the Draft. I'm talking about DT, MLB, Safety. And, I don't think we can ignore the Oline either.

To what extent one or more of those positions can or will be addressed in FA is unknown for the time being which leaves us talking about the Draft almost exclusively. And so far, it has been confined to pick 15 in Round 1. We fans and many among the media and  the draftniks tend to give inordinate attention to Round 1 and to impute some sort of absolute intrinsic value to a draft slot there. We then try to tag players accordingly. While it's true that the success rate in finding starters, impact players, etc is greater in Round 1, the decisions made there can and often do have big implications for the next two rounds. It can be more of a sums game than I think is recognized in our focus on Round 1.

In any case, we should be mindful of the fact that the so called, experts often differ significantly in how they rate players and in where they rank them. That probably reflects their biases in how they weight various skills and abilities both tangible and intangible assuming their opinions are indeed authentic. We often find those reports which offer a detailed analysis of a player's strengths and weaknesses to contain self-contradictions. And often enough, we find  their bottom line conclusions to be not what we would have expected.

Consider also that the prediction accuracy of mock drafts goes from about 80 percent in respect of players in the top 100 being taken in the top 100, to about 65 percent for those predicted to go in Round 1 who actually do, to just 10 percent on average when it comes to matching players to the teams which draft them. And that includes the fact that accuracy is generally fairly high with the guesses among the first 5 or 6 players taken. Of course, I'm talking about the final guesses of the experts, the draftniks, and Kiper-wannabes, not those they made and changed several times from their first through the Combine, Pro Days, Free Agency, and however they felt the wind might be blowing based on rumor or someone else's claim to inside information.
 
I would submit to you that right now teams haven't even begun to create a draft board, to think about who they might take where. They are concentrating almost exclusively on the personnel they already have, grading them individually and in the context of their role and contribution to the team as a whole. In that regard, the Giants will have to pay particular attention to progress made by the host of guys who had surgery during or following the season. Guys like Jacobs and Bradshaw may have good prognoses, whereas Pierce may not. Tuck, Nicks and Hedgecock also have had work done; probably no worries there. Same, I suspect for Alford. And then how about Kenny Phillips? I'm happy to read that he is ahead of schedule in his rehab. Finally, they have to think about who may be done because they lack the necessary talent or have lost it due to attrition: Robbins, Bernard, Moss, Blackburn, CC Brown, Dockery, Whimper. Wilkinson, DeOssie, and ?

Then, the staff also will have to start modeling the systems and schemes they expect to employ, especially on defense with a new DC and Dline coach. Certainly, when it comes to scouting players for the Draft, you'd better have a good idea as to his fit to your system.

Eventually, when they have done those things and built a list of prospects, they will start to stack their board. It's hard to know if they will have a "must get" player penciled in at 15. More likely, it will consist of several candidates, one of whom may have a lesser grade, but otherwise be considered a best fit for a need while giving them a similar opporunity for a "best fit" in the next round. We just don't know the permutations and combinations they have outlined to give them the most value over say the first three rounds, and we may never know until they call the names, and perhaps not then in respect of the luck of the draw.

Personally, I don't ever make predictions. I'm satisfied to think of possibilities in terms of who might help overcome previous weaknesses and, better yet, turn them into strengths. I content myself to scribble names next to the three or four positions which I hope to see improved in talent over three rounds. I'm just trying to see if I can find one combination from among the nine to maybe twelve possible combinations that I think could have most value. I don't know if teams do something like that in stacking their boards, but they certainly do a lot of shuffling before they cut and deal.

Cheers!  
  


        

[andrew_nyg]

Painter...great post! I agree with much of what you wrote, and enjoy your insights.

One of the players that you pointed out who could be done due to attrtion or lack of contribution, is one whom many here have concluded the same: Robbins

I tend to lean the other way on him. It's hard for me to imagine Fred completely falling off the shelf from '08 to '09.

I tend to believe that (in large part because of his size) that the turn around time on his microfracture procedure, together with all of the other problems along the DL, had much more to do with his lack of production, than any diminishing skils.

Especially with Alford (who I see as a REAL PLAYER over the long haul), a big question mark due to coming back from his own injury in '10....I would much rather see the Giants give Fred a shot to rebound, because  (based upon previous performance), I can see that happening in a BIG way.

[NYSPORTS]

One of the players that you pointed out who could be done due to attrtion or lack of contribution, is one whom many here have concluded the same: Robbins

I tend to lean the other way on him. It's hard for me to imagine Fred completely falling off the shelf from '08 to '09.

I tend to believe that (in large part because of his size) that the turn around time on his microfracture procedure, together with all of the other problems along the DL, had much more to do with his lack of production, than any diminishing skils.

Especially with Alford (who I see as a REAL PLAYER over the long haul), a big question mark due to coming back from his own injury in '10....I would much rather see the Giants give Fred a shot to rebound, because  (based upon previous performance), I can see that happening in a BIG way.

I agree with you post and hope Robbins returns to form.  We all recognize mircrofracture surgery takes some time to recover and I believe the healing process is only half the equation.  

My question to the second half of the equation;  how can these guys, especially linemen, do squats to keep their back and legs strong?  I believe these guys are taking the field with muscle atrophy b/c they simply can't work out.

We saw Robbins still make an impact with an injured knee, two broken wrists and a sprained shoulder in '08.  Now he makes practically zero impact in '09?  I can't help but think it's not the healing from microfracture surgery but the limits on the players ability to squat and workout to prosper during the regular season.

If Robbins can perform squats and workout this offseason, he might just return to being a Giants asset as opposed to a liability on that DL.

[Painter]

Don't get me wrong, guys. I am not suggesting that they release Fred Robbins. It may well be that he wasn't fully recovered from his knee surgery. He's a big guy who has to put a lot of weight on it to play his position. And quite obviously, with Alford hurt all year, Canty hurt much of the year, and no contribution from Bernard, he had to play many more snaps than maybe he should have been expected to do. I'll be happy to see him there next year, and so would his team mates among whom he's a favorite well-respected.

Cheers! 

[spiderblue43]

There does seem to be a general consensus that the middle of the defense needs attention and should be addressed in FA and/or the Draft. I'm talking about DT, MLB, Safety. And, I don't think we can ignore the Oline either.

        

Painter,

Holy mackeral! Yeah,  the middle of the defense need attention. I totally agree with that "consensus". We don't know have any idea about KP, really, which worries the heck out of me. The release of AP today shows a rather obvious awareness how vunerable they were last year (an 8-year old could figure that out) in the middle. I'm with you on Robbins. He's a really great guy, a team leader playing with two broken shoulders (try that at work, tough guys-I had two broken ribs suffered in December and it was agony for 5 weeks) the year before. You have to figure Canty's last year was an anomaly considering his past, or I least should hope so.

Bottom Line: Change is coming to the D, and that's a good thing based on their horrid performance last year. Absolutely awful. The awareness, obviously, that they stunk the joint out is a good first step with releasing AP after the obligatory firing of Sheridan.

[dasher]

Just to go on the record, I don't subscribe to the theory of always taking the best player available which seems to be our mantra based on Painter's post. The draft is all shades of grey, not black and white. You make your selection projected on whom may be available in following rounds, based on need and your value board which incorporates weighting of positions. You may not take your number one choice, but your number two or three if you see value in positions of need in forthcoming rounds. To say you always take the highest rated player on your board rings true in fantasy drafts, but not the NFL. The draft is a an art, not a science- this is indisputable.