My March version of the Giants draft stategy

[MightyGiants]

Still early with over a month to the draft, but I wanted to share some of my thoughts on the Giants draft strategy.

First off Reese is going into this draft with two very pressing needs.  The ideal situation is to go into a draft with no major needs and allow the team maximum flexibility to go BPA.


In this case the Giants have an urgent need at MLB and OC/OG (so we are looking at centers who could play guard for this year before stepping in for OHara next year).

Looking at the MLB draft prospects:

You have McClain who is considered the best MLB.  He had a lack luster Pro Day and his Crohn's disease lead me to believe there is an excellent chance he will be there for the Giants at 15.  I see him as a younger and bigger version of Pierce, which is certainly not a bad thing.

You have Spikes who is very similar prospect (I tend to agree more with Painter's they are not far apart assessment rather than Ceri's that their is a significant difference assessment).   I see him going late 1st round or high second

At a second tier of MLB prospects I think you have Weatherspoon, Butler and Lee.  Weatherspoon will likely be a high 2nd rounder and Butler and Lee going some  where in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

At the Center position you have:

Maurkice Pouncey going 1-2, Matt Tennant going 2-3 and J.D. Walton going 3-4


So what do the Giants do?  Well I think the most likely scenario is that McClain is available to the Giants at 15

From there the Giants have a couple of options.  If they like McClain they can simply grab him in this round.  The team will then try to snag Tennant or Walton in the 2nd or 3rd round (which may mean trading to move up).

The second option would be to trade down.  It's possible the team will have McClain, Spikes and Pouncey all in the same bracket.  If that is the case it would make sense to trade down because it would be safe to count of one of the three still being left at the lower position.  At that point they would pull the trigger on a MLB (and then have an extra pick to ensure grabbing one of the other 2 centers) or they pull the trigger on Pouncey and then go for one of the three MLB that I have listed as tier two (as at least one, if not more, should be available with their second pick).  In this case they would be left with an extra pick to deal with one of the teams other needs and could even trade down in the 2nd if all three are there.

Now if McLain is drafted before the Giants

The team can either take Spikes straight up and then try to maneuver for one of the three centers.   They draft Pouncey straight up and draft a tier two MLB.     They could also make a lesser trade down at 15 and still likely pick up either Spikes or Pouncey.

Now I know that many of you are high on Weatherspoon, but I see him as someone with no MLB experience who was a bit of a work out warrior in terms of his late rise.   I think he is good value at 2 but I don't see him as a wise first pick.  In either event I think he would be the player that takes the longest to start.


Of course they could do something totally unexpected and draft someone like Spiller (or an OT or DT) but that would leave the team with unresolved weaknesses.


 

[UncannyGfan]

I don't trust McKenzie's back or Seuy's Shoulder as starters later in the season.  Beatty can fill in for Seubert (Diehl sliding over) but that still leaves us with a hole at RT.  Seubert can fill in as a back up center.

I think MLB is the biggest need but I would rank OT as the 2nd.

[Eli10]

I like the analysis...

My thoughts - we need a MIKE - I think they take McClain - but Spikes if he has a real good pro day could be equally as intriguing...I think we look to draft a starting MIKE - if we do not get Morrison / Ryans / Rudd - which we are not - then drafting MIKE is critical...

The issue is where do they have these guys ranked...If they think Lee can play MIKE or Spoon can play MIKE and they feel there is not much of a difference than they will go MIKE in RD 2 and BPA Round 1....

I like Tennant - very good player - I just wonder if he is strong enough - we need a push on the OL - but he is a very good player and will be a starter for years to come...If available in RD 2 or 3 - grab him - if we got our MIKE...

If they really think the 4 or 5 top LB's are that close and they go RD 2 - don't be shocked if they take Spiller if Price is not there....Maybe Kindle - but I would not be blown away if they take Spiller.....Does not mean I agree with it - but he is a legit home run threat...

There is only 1 HR threat on the offense - Mario....Nicks is a good player and can score but not a speed guy - BJ is not - AB is injured too often...Smith is not - You need a speed guy - Jackson / McCoy / Macklin prove that in Philly...

Spiller might be too good to pass at 15 - but I prefer we go defense...

[todge]

Well done MG.  Some thoughts about your post -

I just wonder what teams are going to do now with McClain's Crohn Disease.  If it progresses, it can be a career-ender.  So I just wonder how many Draft Boards Rolando has been scratched from.

Even if Sintim pans out, the Giants still need a Mike and a Sam (as a backup or competition to Clint).  I too have a hard time believing they will go into the Draft barren at both positions.

I don't what to make with Spikes.  My understanding is that many scouts have concerns about his footspeed manning the Mike spot and see him as a better fit inside of a 3/4. I agree with you on Weatherspoon.

[MightyGiants]

Guys you make a good point about other strong needs.  That is why I tend to see the Giants wanting to trade down in the first, so they can get another day one pick (defined as being in round 1-3) so they can pick up either a ORT or a SLB

Todge,

NFL radio talked about this.  Poppa and Cross made a good point that he has had the condition since the 9th grade so he has shown he can deal with it.  I think it would be a factor that goes in the negative column but I don't think it would be a red flag.

Uncanny,

I also see the possibility of Diehl or Beatty at ORT.

[TONKA56]

I find it very interesting that none of the three most popular MLB candidates discussed i.e. McClain, Spikes, and Weatherspoon are prototypical 4-3 Mike backers.  Do any of them even play in a 4-3 currently?  Weatherspoon projects to OLB I think.

[nosebleed_section]

i wonder if their Kenny Phillips experience has any bearing on McClain's Crohns disease? I've often wondered how there were no noise about a knee that turned out to be arthritic. The guy went from two INTs vs Dallas to out for the season in 4 days without being carted off the field.

Boy would I like to know what they think about Goff. I know he has a lot of detractors on this board - not without some justification - but I still feel that the sample size has been too small. I like the idea of trading down - depending on how the high picks unfold of course. There will probably be the usual run on tackles. Pouncey would look good in blue and (Pat Kirwan always talks about drafting to win your division) would be stout against the DLs in our division. (Beatty, Pouncey, O'Hara, Snee, Diehl)

As a number of people have said, it's hard to see JR drafting on day one without having the Mike covered. Every year he has made sure that they can work their board.

We like to think of the Giants as linebacker U - but it is a very long time since that was true. We haven't drafted them high or well since the 80's. The last really good draft pick at LB was Armstead and he was a gift in the 7th round. GY lost his touch in the 90's and then EA came along who obviously valued DL over LB. JR seems to have continued the tendency.

So, does the leopard change his spots?

[PSUBeirut]

I'd actually like to see two LB's and a DT selected in the first 3 rounds.  I think OL is a concern, but as compared to the D it's not even close where we need to improve.

[TONKA56]

I think OL is a concern, but as compared to the D it's not even close where we need to improve.

I'm leaning that way too.  I'd also prefer to obtain a more powerful, physical center and compromise a bit of athletic ability at that spot. 

[MightyGiants]

Tonka to answer your question:

Spikes played MLB in a pro style 4-3

McClain played ILB in Saban's aggressive 3-4

Spoon played WLB in what I assume was a 4-3


PSU and Tonka,

Now I thought interior O-Lineman was a big need last season.  Clearly Reese didn't agree with me or the team didn't get a chance to fill that need.  I think one of the main reason's for the Giants weak running game (which also hurt the D by decreasing TOP) was the fact that Suebert was injured but a one armed Suebert was still better than anyone the Giants could replace him with. 
Now Suebert and Ohara are another year older and the worse for wear.   So I consider an interior linemen even a bigger need this year. 
I can agree that the team could use a quality DT, but with Coefield, Canty, Alford, Benard and Tuck swinging inside I see it more of an upgrade opportunity than a strong need (at least compared to interior O-line).

[TONKA56]

Tonka to answer your question:

Spikes played MLB in a pro style 4-3

McClain played ILB in Saban's aggressive 3-4

Spoon played WLB in what I assume was a 4-3

Thanks!

[Cid in Dupont]

I would like them to draft Pouncey in the 1st, and then Lee in the 2nd.  I'm still holding out that they'll make an offer to Morrison and give up their 3rd to Oakland.  We still have pick (between 14-17) in all of the other rounds.  I think that we'll be able to pick up Walton in the 4th.
I think that OL is almost as big as a need as MLB, as I'm under the opinion that they're just an injury away to DD or CS from another very mediocre season.  I hope they pick Pouncey, who can step right in immediately & give us a some "thump" up front.  Also if we can get Morrison & Lee then we're set for a long time @ MLB.  Something about Lee makes me think he's going to be a great MLB in the NFL and if we have Morrison for a couple years it will give Lee time to learn and heal.  Btw, I'd have to think he'd be an animal on ST too
I think we'll be O.K. on the DLine, with Canty, Alford, Osi, Kiwi, Tuck, and hopefully Rocky.  If they can all stay fairly healthy then we'll compete with anyone on the LOS.
My other thought is if Spiller is there @ 15, I wouldn't be too surprised or unhappy with snagging him...not a position of need necessarily, but wow, he's like Percy Harvin...anytime he touches it he can take it to the house.
Cid

[jerseyguy]

I just don't see Reese gambling on not getting a solid MLB either in the draft or FA, right now he's got a pissed off owner saying he's not happy with anybody after last seasons mess and I don't think Reese is in a position to take any chances on not fixing an obvious need, so its definitely going to be a MLB from somewhere and he better be a good one...

[TONKA56]

That's a good point jerseyguy.  It's new territory for Reese...being "on the hot seat" I mean.  It's going to be interesting to see how he responds.

[Gmo11]

An interior lineman for the future is a concern, but the hole at MLB is a gaping black hole of death.  They simply cannot leave the first round without somebody to play MLB.  I like Pouncey, I think he's a good player with a bright future, but the Giants are no longer in a position where they can just draft him because he's got a bright future.  They need a starting MLB and the only legitimate place left to get him is going to be the 1st round unless Reese decides it's worth the risk to wait until round two and take whoever is left.  NOT a wise choice in my opinion.  It's looking more and more like McClain might be there.  Just like with Kenny Phillips dropped into the Giants laps as the offseason went along, if McClain lands at 15 they have to take him.  It would be a gift from the football Gods for that to happen.  Take him and never look back.