BBH Draft Preview 2011 -OFFENSE

[UKGiantsFan]

The talent available
I don’t see a ‘blue chip’ talent available this year but with the success of the double TE set in New England and elsewhere last year the profile of the position has been slightly elevated this time around.

Most of the TE’s in this draft have ‘knocks’ on them - speed, injury, inability to block, lack of experience or level of competition - but whilst there is some talent there is not a lot of depth at the position. I have only one player rated on the cusp of my top 32 but no others in my top 64 (and only one more ‘true’ TE appears in my top 100).

What do I think the Giants should do?
Kevin Boss will either be an unrestricted free agent and, if he’s retained, likely to only be signed to a short-term deal. Though productive throughout his career, the number of balls he dropped last year was in double figures and his health is fast becoming an issue - especially with concussion problems - as he continues to take too many big hits and get worn down as the season goes on.

I said at the time that Travis Beckum was a horrible fit for the Giants when we took in the 3rd round of the ’09 draft as he always looked like he would have trouble getting on the field - he clearly lacked the size and strength to block in-line, was best utilized split out wide and wasn’t so talented that he’d force a WR off the field to get him on it. Sadly, that evaluation turned out to be spot on. Forced to play more when Boss was out injured last year he proved such a liability in the run game the Giants took to inserting an extra lineman and playing without a TE altogether.

Having deviated from their usual ‘prototype’ for the position and failed miserably with Beckum I fully expect the Giants to revert to their usual M.O by drafting a pass catching TE who is at least 6‘4”, 245lb’s with great hands, enough speed to stretch the middle of the field and the frame to add weight and learn how to block. There are a half dozen prospects who fit that profile this year and the Giants are known to have shown interest in them at Pro Day’s so clearly they are looking to at the very least add a TE to back Boss up, maybe even replace him outright.

How will things play out on draft day?
Even after the impact made by rookie TE’s last year no more than one will be taken in the first round as they simply don’t warrant that high a selection. The ‘value’ is likely to be on day three of the draft.

Teams likely to look for help at TE this year include Buffalo, Denver, Arizona, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Oakland,  Atlanta & Pittsburgh.

The top prospects
Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame) has excellent size for the position at 6'6 1/8”, 259lb’s with 34” arms. Entered the NFL Draft as a junior but doesn’t lack experience - started all 3 years for the Irish. Is a very good receiver over the middle who can both move the chains and also offer a big target in the red zone. Has excellent hands and been very productive (90-1032 & 8TD’s in 29 career games). Doesn’t quite have stretch the field speed on the stopwatch - ran a a 4.78 at his recent Pro Day - but has shown the ability to get deep down the seam in games. Also offers well above average good blocking ability for his position so can help immediately in the running game too. The biggest worry teams may have with him is that he’s had a couple of injuries serious enough to require surgery - separated shoulder in ’09, tore his hamstring off the bone in ’10 - and was unable to work out until recently having been unable to perform at the Combine. Should have an immediate impact for whoever drafts him. Top 32 pick
 
Luke Stocker (Tennessee) is another with excellent size for the position at 6'4 3/4",   258lb’s with 33” arms.  One of the more experienced TE’s in the group - was a 3 year starter and voted a Team Captain as a Senior. Put up solid career numbers when starting (81-945 & 7 TD’s) whilst increasing his number of catches each year but he doesn’t stretch the field the way Rudolph does despite comparable speed (4.79). Runs smooth routes but doesn’t catch everything - I’ve seen a few balls come off his hands and end up with defenders (so he fits right in if we make him a Giant!!) Performed well at the Senior Bowl. Is the strongest TE of the top group - put up a position high 27 reps on the bench press at the Combine - but only offers decent blocking for the run game. Tough guy with a tendency to get banged up but keep playing. Solid but unspectacular.

The best of the rest
Rob Housler (Florida Atlantic) is 6'5 3/8”, 248lb’s with 34 1/2” arms and excellent speed (ran a 4.55 at the Combine). Was listed at 215lb’s during his collegiate career and looked more like a tall, skinny WR but turned heads when he turned up 30lb’s bigger than previously advertised at the Combine and still proved as athletic as anyone at the position during the workout and in drills. He even did well in the bench press to alleviate questions about whether he had the strength to block (22 reps). Has averaged 15.7 yards per catch on 78 career receptions and scored 8 TD’s so certainly shows the ability to stretch the seam and make big plays. I get the feeling he is very much a raw but under-rated prospect.

Jordan Cameron (USC) is a little bigger and slightly slower than Housler at 6'5 1/4”, 254lb’s with 33 1/2” arms and 4.59 speed. Former basketball player who played three years of football - two as a WR - but wasn’t ever an established starter and never made a catch until his Senior year. Has put up very modest receiving numbers (16-126 & 1 TD). Reportedly made a very good impression at the East-West Shrine Bowl practices and his ‘stock’ went even higher when acing the Combine finishing 1st or 2nd at his position in all field events and looking good in drills. Better known for the YouTube video he made dunking basketball’s than anything he ever did on the football field. Could go a lot higher than I have him rated.

Julius Thomas (Portland St) has solid size at 6'4 5/8”, 246lb’s with 33” arms and very good speed for the position (runs a 4.68). Very inexperienced - only played one year of football in High School then played four years of basketball before graduating and walking on with the football team last season. Made an immediate impact (29-453 and 2 TD’s) in his one year. Looked impressive in drills at the Combine and reportedly stood out at his Pro Day having come on in leaps and bounds under the recent tutelage of former NFL TE Billy Miller. Lack of strength to block is a major issue at this time (managed just 16 reps on the bench press at the Combine) but it appears he’s willing to work and is progressing quickly.

I consider each of DJ Williams (Arkansas), Lance Kendricks (Wisconsin) and Virgil Green (Nevada) to be nothing more than H-Back’s in the NFL and whilst I really like the versatility the Mackey Award winning Williams has to offer - he lined up at FB, H-Back, TE in the slot and even blocks acceptably well on the edge - I can’t see how we could make best use of his talents any more than we could Beckum’s. I’d therefore be disappointed if we repeat the mistake and selected any of them.

Far more attractive than any of the above trio from a Giant perspective are a pair of Smith’s who offer a lot as blockers but have serious limitations in the passing game.

Lee Smith (Marshall) is 6'5 3/4”, 266lb’s with 34 3/8” arms and lived up to the hype that preceded him at the Senior Bowl by proving himself to be an outstanding blocker. He can’t stretch the field at all (5.01 speed over 40 yards at the Combine) but as his 75 career receptions show he can certainly catch the ball well enough to make a niche for himself in the NFL.

Andre Smith (Virginia Tech) has similar size at 6’4 1/2”, 269lb’s but isn’t quite as natural a receiver (though he grabbed 5 TD’s last season). He too has excelled as a blocker helping out the running game. Can help out on Special Team’s player too - he blocked 2 kicks as a Senior! Having not been invited to the Combine I can’t find his arm length or workout numbers listed anywhere (but his arms look long when you watch him extend them to block in games) despite scouring the web for his Pro Day results but the 4.80 speed he’s listed on most draft sites as having is probably a bit of wishful thinking!

Summary
Whilst I have a real liking for Rudolph and consider him the top prospect at the position by some distance it will prove hard to select him at a time where he offers ‘value’. He’s not worth the 19th overall selection so unless we trade down he’d be a bit of a ‘reach’. Were he to make it through into the 2nd round I very much doubt he escapes the top 40 overall so we’d have to trade up a long way for him. Stocker is not nearly as exciting as a prospect but might be an option in the 3rd round.

More likely expect to see the Giants target one of Housler, Cameron or Thomas. I think we’d be happy with any of them and having definitely been at the respective Pro Day’s of Housler and Thomas it’s likely the Giants have an active interest in both! If we don’t manage to grab one of them and decide instead to add a blocker into the mix whilst crossing our fingers that Beckum finally comes through I’d be delighted with the late round selection of either of the Smith’s.

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[MightyGiants]

Good work as always Ceri.  When I did my needs evaluation (based on all free agents leaving) TE was a major area of need.  As you pointed out his injury history (especially his concussions make him a risk even if the team does resign him).

[DesG89]

I 2nd MG's compliments Ceri. Your position previews are always good reads & I look forward to as much as I do the draft itself. I patiently await the next installment. Particularly you evaluation of the OTs and OGs

[afan56]

Thanks Ceri...great job as usual.

[terrymeisner]

ceri.....once again, thanks for the time and effort you put into your draft primers......i love reading them and most of the time you are spot on....go Giants!!!!!

[MightyGiants]

I would like to see the Giants pick up Luke Stocker.  I think he could fit well into the Giants system and we have seen that the Giants like former team captains.

[bighitterdalama]

Ceri,

Spot on as always. The only qualifier I would add concerns Andre Smith's two blocked kicks as they might have been systemic in nature. Beamer puts a great emphasis on this aspect of the game (even running kick block drills with nerf-style footballs) so that VTech regularly leads the top D-I teams in blocked kicks.

Go QPR! Ten points clear with five to go!

Big Hitter

[UKGiantsFan]

BBH Draft Preview 2011 - Center's

The talent available
This is a position where I simply don’t see a ‘blue chip’ talent available in this draft - the best interior OL’s projected to play Center are either totally unproven at the position or else look better suited to Guard. Depth at the position is very thin with few players who even look like they might become starters a few years down the line. Of the ‘pure’ Centers I can’t see a single one being draft in the top 100 though there are three players classified as Guard/Center’s who rate in my top 100 (one ranking in my top 32, one more in my top 64 and another in my top 100)

What do I think the Giants should do?
The injury situation at the position is somewhat precarious - at best - with the top two on the depth chart Shaun O’Hara and Adam Koets tucked away on Injured Reserve long before the season ended. Then when Rich Seubert was injured during the final game the ‘last OL on the depth chart’, reserve G/T Kevin Boothe, ended up as the ‘last man standing’ at the position. Boothe is now scheduled to be a free agent and is likely to be allowed to move on.

Based on his play O’Hara appeared ‘done’ as a quality starter before he was injured and his performance when he returned (briefly) to the starting line-up was putrid. Koets finally managed to snap the ball to the QB without it hitting the turf repeatedly but I wasn't impressed with his play. Considering it was his first ever game action that may be a little harsh but I’ve seen enough to suggest he simply isn’t the long-term answer. Seubert was a revelation in the pivot but suffered the worst injury of all and has the least amount of time to recover from it.

How will things play out on draft day?
Center’s rarely go in the 1st round and this year will be no exception. At most there will be one.

Teams that may look for help at the position include San Francisco, Miami, Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia, Chicago and New England.

The prospects
Mike Pouncey (Florida) has good height for the position at 6'5” and at 303 lb’s with 32 1/4” arms he has some room to grow. Twin brother of the Steelers Maurkice but not as athletic or dominant a player. Started 4 games at DT as a freshman before moving to the OL in ’08 and started for 3 years on offense (first 2 years at RG, last year at C). Dominant run blocker when asked to pull and trap but falls off too many blocks in-line. Not as consistent making blocks at the second level but has shown he can get out on and bring down defenders in the open field on screen plays. Good pass blocker and picks up stunts well. Had major problems with accuracy in executing the shotgun snap throughout the year so I consider him more a ‘pure’ Guard than G/C prospect. The Giants have shown a lot of interest in him but is that to rule him out or in? Top 32 pick regardless and could go a lot higher than I have him rated.

Rodney Hudson (Florida St) is a little shorter and lighter than ideal at 6'2 3/8”, 299lb’s with 32 1/2” arms but played at an even lower weight in college. 4 year starter (mostly at LG) winning the Jacobs Trophy as the top blocker in the ACC the past two seasons. Very good technician with fast hands - has proved able to block players far bigger than him throughout his career. Continued to answer questions about his size when dominating during Senior Bowl practices and in the game. Excellent pass blocker. Better trapping and sealing than run blocking straight ahead. Despite his small stature he isn’t overly agile blocking in the open field. Has next to no experience in the pivot but simulated snaps in drills at the Combine and in Pro Day workouts. Very intelligent with admirable character. The Giants have shown a lot of interest in him too. Rates on the cusp of my top 50 players overall.

Stefan Wisniewski (Penn State) is a stockily built 6'3”, 313lb’s with 33” arms. Nephew of the Raiders former All-Pro G Steve and comes from a football family. 3 year starter (RG as a soph and senior, C as a junior). Generates some real movement in the running game blocking straight ahead but overextends and ends up on the ground too often when pushing DT’s laterally. Not consistent finding his target when pulling - the further he goes the less his chance of making a block. Consistently make blocks on the second level going straight through the line. Has some problems in pass protection with strong bull rushers but is very good helping out. Very intelligent with admirable character. Like Pouncey I feel he’s a better fit at RG than at C. Is a little over-rated based on his bloodlines. Borderline 2nd/3rd round pick.

Tim Barnes (Missouri) has solid size at 6’3 5/8”, 298lb’s. 3 year starter in an offense with wide splits in the line and snapped to his QB almost exclusively in the shotgun in games (though all snaps at the Pro Day were taken under center). Isn’t overly athletic but was asked to pull both in pass protection and to lead on running plays. Looks to give help when free to do so. Played well in most of the games I’ve seen of him this season but has static feet at times when he locks on in pass protection and becomes susceptible to a second move (see Nebraska game). Wasn’t invited to the Combine but I can’t find any reports from the Pro Day that give his arm length.  Good strength -  put up 26 reps on the bench press at his Pro Day. Has had surgery on both shoulders in the past. Unlikely to be selected before the draft’s third day but looks like the type who could step right in and start as a rookie.

Brandon Fusco (Slippery Rock, PA) has solid size at 6'4”, 306lb’s with 33 3/4” arms. Four year starter at a Division II school. Made a reasonably good impression at the Senior Bowl when he didn’t look out of his depth in practices or the game. Needs to learn to use his hands a lot better but is a good enough athlete to make it in the NFL as a starter. More of a ‘developmental’ prospect who will need a few years of pro coaching to reach his potential than a player who can step in and start immediately. Giants have shown some interest in him too. Might go earlier than Barnes due to his higher upside.

I don’t consider either Kristofer O'Dowd (USC) or John Moffitt (Wisconsin) to be attractive prospects. The former has always struggled with power, getting blown back into the QB far too often for my liking. The latter has very limited athleticism and is better at Guard.

Summary
Were he available and the Giants to select Pouncey with the 19th pick as a Center you could chalk it up almost entirely to desperation. With the number of shotgun snaps Eli takes each week he looks a very bad fit at C for us. If convinced that Hudson can handle the job I’d expect him to be in the debate when the Giants 2nd round pick rolls around - maybe Wisniewski too as he won’t last to our 3rd round pick and at least has proven he can play the position -  but there may be better players available at other positions. If we still have a need at C on the draft’s third day I’d be satisfied with Barnes or Fusco in the 4th round.

[MightyGiants]

After watching Koets botch snaps like he did and then perform nearly flawlessly when the time came to do it for real, I am not too distressed by Pouncey's shotgun problem. 

[MightyGiants]

Just heard Pat Kirwin on NFL radio.  Pat says he knows that Pouncey has fixed his snapping problems

[UKGiantsFan]

BBH Draft Preview 2011 - Guard's

The talent available
Some of the top Guard prospects have already been covered in the Center preview but there are also some appealing players who project inside in the NFL that played Tackle in college, including some with experience inside already. Whilst there may not be any ‘blue chip’ prospects or great depth at the position there is some quality talent available including one who ranks in my top 40, three more in my top 64 and another one in my top 100.

What do I think the Giants should do?
The alarm bells should be ringing loudly at LG just as they are at C. The unquestioned starter Rich Seubert is coming off surgery and if healthy would likely play C again. The assumption that the Giants will draft a Tackle and David Diehl will simply return to his old position may be incorrect - I’d suggest that GM Jerry Reese was right last year when he said that ‘Diehl is too big for Guard’... Pressed into action at LG he simply looked too slow to pull and lead anymore. Jack-of-all-trades Kevin Boothe outperformed Diehl in his stint at the position but is an unrestricted free agent and probably won’t be back. Mitch Petrus saw little action as a rookie but it’s doubtful whether he is ready to push for a starting spot.

How will things play out on draft day?
Guard’s rarely go in the 1st round and this year will be no exception. At most there will be two (and one of those is classified as a G/C).

Teams that will probably look for help at the position this year include Arizona, Dallas, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, Atlanta, New England, Pittsburgh & Green Bay

The prospects
Danny Watkins (Baylor) has solid Guard size at 6'3 3/8”, 310lb’s with 34 1/4” arms. Overaged prospect from Canada (will be a 27 year old rookie) who served as a part-time firefighter for four years before moving to the USA to attend college and become a full-time fire-fighter. Played LT for two years for a JUCO before transferring to Baylor and stepping in at the same position there. Tough and very physical. Needs to pick up stunts better but hard to beat one-on-one. Came to national prominence during the Senior bowl week when tried at G for the first time dominating all-comers in practices and continued to do so in the game itself. Ranks in my top 32 but might slip a little due to his age.

Ben Ijalana (Villanova) started for 4 years at LT but doesn’t have ideal size for that position at 6'3 5/8”, 317lb’s. However his 36” arms - 2nd longest of the top OL prospects this year - and superior athleticism give him a chance to remain there though most experts (and me!) are ‘playing safe’ and projecting him inside to Guard. Comes from a lower level of competition but dominated there both in pass protection and the running game in the lone game I’ve seen him play. Was invited to the Senior Bowl but missed his opportunity to showcase his skills there due to sports hernia surgery then was unable to workout at the Combine. The Giants have shown heavy interest in him. Ranks in my top 40 as a G but were he to be considered at LT would only cause a minor surprise were his name to be called in the back third of the 1st round.
 
Clint Boling (Georgia) has good size at 6'4 1/2”, 308lb’s with 33 1/2” arms. His biggest strength is his immense versatility - was a 4 year starter but never played a single season in the same spot due to injuries elsewhere along the line (19 starts at both LT & RG, 11 at RT). Team Captain as a senior. Not athletic enough or built ‘long’ enough to play T in the NFL - got by against top competition in the SEC with good use of angles, solid footwork, toughness and a relentless approach but is a good, solid football player and one of my favorites in this draft. Projects very well to LG due to his ability to pull and hit a moving target or trap his opponent. Needs to anchor better in pass protection though. Despite his vast experience he still has an upside due to the fact he’s never really been able to settle into one spot and work on his weaknesses. Ranks in my top 64

Orlando Franklin (Miami, FL) is another big, versatile lineman at 6'5 1/2”, 316lb’s with 35” arms. Was a 3 years starter (LG for 2 years, LT his senior year). Powerful run blocker from either position who serves up ‘pancake blocks’ despite playing too high. Can pull and hit a moving target very well. Tough as nails - has played through two injuries that required surgery after the season ended including playing his entire senior season with a torn meniscus in his left knee. Much better in pass protection on the inside than outside - needs a lot of work on his lateral movement to stay at T in the pro ranks. Born in Jamaica and hasn’t played football for that long having moved from Canada to Florida midway through high school. Has an upside. May project to RT with some development work but I think he’ll be a much better LG. Ranks in my top 64

Marcus Cannon (TCU) is a mountain of a man at 6'5”, 358lb’s with 34” arms and is as strong as he is large. 3 year starter - RT for the first two years, LT last year - in an offense that heavily favors the pass and did a good job in pass protection. Doesn’t have the athleticism to block the NFL’s speed rushers and remain at LT but was a dominant RT. Had a strong Combine showing despite being the biggest player in attendance at any position. Not the ‘masher’ you’d expect of someone his size in the running game, Won’t fit every system. Needs to keep a close eye on his weight (thought to have played his senior year at 375lb’s and that was after losing weight). Ranks in my top 64 but could go higher were teams to consider him the answer to their problems at Tackle.

Will Rackley (Lehigh) has good size at 6'3 1/4”, 309lb’s with 33 1/4” arms. 4 year starter at a lower level of competition (RG as a freshman, 3 years at LT). I haven’t seen him play but he doesn’t look nearly as dominant or as athletic as Ijalana on the snippets of his play available on the internet. Reportedly made a favorable impression at the East-West Shrine Bowl practices and game when moved back inside so it is unlikely he’ll be considered as a T in the NFL. Will probably need at least a year to make an mpression but has talent. Ranks in my top 100

I don’t consider Stephen Schilling (Michigan) or Justin Boren (Ohio State) to be good enough prospects to start in the NFL. Both are tough but neither is athletic enough to project as starters anywhere down the line.

Summary
Whilst the Giants won’t take a Guard in the 1st round - at least not one they envisage playing Guard - the 2nd round may be a place where they start looking intently at the position. Ijalana is the type of player that the Giants would take in the 1st round (very athletic with a high upside and LT skill-set) but I can’t see them doing so with the 19th overall selection. If they want him at a point he offers ‘value’ they will have to trade down in the 1st or up a long way in the 2nd to get him. Boling and Franklin both appeal for different reasons in the 2nd round and in truth I’d be happy with either, especially were one to slip down to us in the 3rd round. Rackley looks like more of a project but has some talent. He might be a consideration in the 3rd round

[vette]

Nice review. Why do you believe that the Giants won't re-sign Boothe? You mentioned that in both previews.

[UKGiantsFan]

Nice review. Why do you believe that the Giants won't re-sign Boothe? You mentioned that in both previews.

There comes a point in a players career where the minimum salary is simply too much for a back-up. For Petrus to progress up the depth chart Boothe has to go.

[Painter]

I think Ceri's reasoning is sound, Rich. And the fact that Boothe was offered only an original (6th round) tender rather than a "we want to keep him", 2nd Rounder also may be indicative.

Cheers!

[gregf]

I would love to see Boothe resigned, possibly to start at center. If not, we have a strong need to pick two lineman in first four rounds. Possibly a tackle and guard/center in first two rounds. Ohara and Suebert may both not be back due to age and injury. There's a lot of guessing as a fan with free agency still lingering. I hope we can keep Boothe, Bradshaw, Cofield, Boss.