Kurt Warner

[ajcnj56]

I am quite surprised at Kurt Warner's statement.  Especially coming from someone whose own HOF consideration is arguably under discussion.  He will make the Hall, because of his story which is exceptional.  But without the story would he be HOF material on 1st ballot?

I compared the 8 year numbers of Eli, Peyton and Warner.  Frankly not a big difference between Eli and Kurt.  Peyton was exceptional but not exceedingly so.  Obviously, Peyton is first ballot material.  But after only 8 years, Eli is only behind Kurt's career numbers by just over 5000 yards.  If you compare all three after their first 8 years this is what you get:

    Pass Comp       Pass Att    Yards    Avg Per Att   Comp %   TD   Int   Rating   TO's   TO/atempt

Eli      2291         3921           27579       7.03            58.4%     185   129    82.1          160       4.1%
                              
Peyt     2769         4333           33189       7.66            63.9%   244   130   94.2          145        3.3%
                              
Warner 1645         2508           20591        8.21            65.6%   125   83   84.2          110        4.4%


Speaking of inconsistent, during his first 8 years, Kurt had very up and down years due to injury and being impacted by Bulger.  Peyton was exceptional during the same period, through 2005.  Eli has some difficult years in his first 5, and last year was a year to forget for Eli.  Eli and Warner have similar numbers in rating, but I also think Warner was benefitted by consistent receivers.

I also created a Turnover per attempt %.  This includes Interceptions and Fumbles Lost added together, as a percentage of total attempts.  I am not an expert here but i wanted to do a comparison to underscore the fact that Kurt really cannot make that call at this point in Eli's career.  If you look purely at SB championships and MVP's, and 4th quarter performance Eli is a HOF'er.  He is only one behind Peyton in total playoff wins in their career's, with a better winning percentage.

One other point to consider, and have not done the research here, but one must also look at the WR's Eli has played with.  He has had two different sets of WR's in each of his Super Bowl winning attempts:

2007 - Plaxico, Steve Smith, Toomer and Boss

2011 - Nicks, Cruz, Manningham and Ballard/Pascoe

Pre-2007, he had a mixture of wideouts that he could not consistently develop a relationship with, in the same way he has done so this year.

To quote Antrel Rolle, "at the end of the day"......Eli will be a Hall of Famer.

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[ViewFromSection129]

  I think that is the key - "at the end of the day".  His non-playoff seasons to date are kind of like that of Don Mattingly - a few great years, but not enough to be Hall-worthy.  However, his 2 SB MVP awards and playoff performances in those years push his status up greatly.  As long as he has another 5-6 good to very good years, he will be in the Hall for sure, whether he delivers another SB or not.

  Therefore, I think I do agree with Warner's premise, but I must say I was a little taken aback by the tone of his comments.  Sounded a little bitter to me, although I could be parsing words and not being fair either.

[Stugots]

Look if Eli did retire today, I don't think he would be in because he hasn't played long enough. Looking at the list of HOF quarterbacks, the vast majority played between 13-16 seasons on average. The only guys who have played less than that are Jim Kelly (10) and Otto Graham (9).

He IS on the right track though.

[Sect122Mike]

  I think that is the key - "at the end of the day".  His non-playoff seasons to date are kind of like that of Don Mattingly - a few great years, but not enough to be Hall-worthy.  However, his 2 SB MVP awards and playoff performances in those years push his status up greatly.  As long as he has another 5-6 good to very good years, he will be in the Hall for sure, whether he delivers another SB or not.

  Therefore, I think I do agree with Warner's premise, but I must say I was a little taken aback by the tone of his comments.  Sounded a little bitter to me, although I could be parsing words and not being fair either.

I agree with warner.  eli is not yet a HOF QB. People get excited too easily.  Eli has a long career ahead of him.  I think 8 years from now, he will be a first ballot HOFer, but if he retired right now, no way. 

I did not hear the context of it, so I will reserve judgment on his tone or demeanor, but from a factual standpoint, I agree. 
Also, I never base HOF on simple numbers, to me its about how a guy was compared to the guys he played with.  When eli is done I think that he will be one of the top 5 QBs overall during his career. That coupled with 2 (hopefully a few more) SBs, will get him in. 

[AYM]

Eli is not a HoFer yet. Kurt Warner is, for the reasons outlined, and also one other HUGE factor:

- He made two absolutely wretched teams into Superbowl contenders, both of whom returned to wretchedness immediately after he left.

[PSUBeirut]

And I will assert that this year's Giants team would have fit right into the wretched category without Eli. Three wins, tops...

[andrew_nyg]

And I will assert that this year's Giants team would have fit right into the wretched category without Eli. Three wins, tops...

Agreed 

In fact, one could easily make the argument (as you look through the schedule) that if not for Eli, the Giants would have been 2-12 heading into the Jets game...which (as we all would agree), was the TURNING POINT game of the season.

[Stugots]

Eli is not a HoFer yet. Kurt Warner is, for the reasons outlined, and also one other HUGE factor:

- He made two absolutely wretched teams into Superbowl contenders, both of whom returned to wretchedness immediately after he left.

He also had Torry Holt- #10 all time in receiving yards- and Isaac Bruce- #3 all time in receiving yards (future HOFer), and recently elected HOFer Marshall Faulk.

[babywhales]

Eli has accomplished feats that only other HOF have too - 2 Time Super Bowl MVP
Eli has accomplished feats that have gotten all but 1 other QB in the HOF - 2 Time Super Bowl champion
Eli has accomplished what no other QB has - 7 road playoff wins

His Inidividual numbers are more than impressive for the first 8 seasons of his career.  He has plenty of time though. 

After 8 seasons Warner was not even close to Eli at the same point in time.

Warner wants to start breaking down numbers and than you can look at the reality of his own.

I.E 6 years in a dome ( 4 years with 8 home games, and 2 away in a dome), he had 3 winning years in Stl??? only a team with a winning record in 5 of his 12 seasons,  only 6 seasons with more than 11 td's, 67-50 record as starter)

His career really had two different levels of play.  When looking at it he is probaly more on the fence after 12 than eli is after 8.

He was good but was massively in consistant in many ways other than completion percentage and yards per attempt.  He was an accurate qb who had 5 maybe 6 good season.

[BlueMoshik]

Kurt Warner a Hall of Famer? Before Eli? To this all I have to say is:

 

[BlueMoshik]

With all respect to the great Kurt Warner, the original Tim Tebow if you will, we need to remember a few things:

He had two great seasons at the beginning of his career, and one terrific season toward the end of his career. In between, he was a mediocre, journeyman QB who took forever to get rid of the ball and was sacked, and fumbled, way way too often.

In St. Louis he was benched for Marc Bulger. Let me repeat that: MARC BULGER.

Let's also not forget that he came to NY where he was benched mid-season for a wet-behind-the-ears rookie named Eli Manning. If you think that didn't stick in the guy's craw, I have a bridge to sell you. Warner is not objective when it comes to Eli.

Warner went to three Super Bowls. He won the first and lost the second and third. That's really good. Hall of Fame? I don't think so. In fact it would be an outrage if he made it in. The fact that he's also a smart guy who was stocking cans in a store shortly before hitting it big in the NFL is not a good enough reason to go to the Hall.

At the end of the day, Warner might be right that Eli is not a first-ballot Hall of Famer yet, but if anyone here thinks that after a few more years he will be less of a HOFer than Kurt Warner, you also probably think that the moon is made of cheese.

 

[Rambo89]

Look if Eli did retire today, I don't think he would be in because he hasn't played long enough. Looking at the list of HOF quarterbacks, the vast majority played between 13-16 seasons on average. The only guys who have played less than that are Jim Kelly (10) and Otto Graham (9).

He IS on the right track though.

This is how I look at it.

[UniHamachi]

I think Warner's point was that Eli isn't a HOFer now.  He doesn't have the consistency or the multiple years of playing at a high level to have HOF stats.  I wouldn't necessarily disagree with him.

But yeah, I'd expect Warner's opinions to be couched as, "he could be" instead of flatly dismissive.  It does sound like sour grapes.

[Zombo]

I like Kurt a lot...I think he's genuine

But I was kind of surprised by the tone....he  could have easily
gone down the 'not a large enough body of work' road but he was
more negative than that...

Maybe something happened in the transition that still bothers him...may
even be he was upset with Accorsi and vented here...whatever it was it
could have been said more smoothly and KW is usually better at that....

all that aside he did what the radio hosts would want...created noise about
their show....and it wasn't Tiki bad....

[spiderblue43]

The "exceptionally inconsistent" remark from Warner about Eli is a bit much. Before this year, Eli should have been considered much more a proven winner as a starter, a former Super Bowl MVP, highly productive (despite LY picks), and consistent in not any missing games, unlike Kurtie. Circumstances have changed, however. Winning championships the way Easy has done is unique-totally historic under the NYC media microscope. 

Now Eli is in the conversation, no question. Warner failed to mention that no two-time Super Bowl QB MVP has never not made it to the HOF. Easy has a heck of a shot now. The tone of Warner was a bit condescending.