Author Topic: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft  (Read 403 times)

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Jolly Blue Giant

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Article in Chatsports (http://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/7-prospects-most-likely-be-busts-2017-nfl-draft-33045)

Rather than copy the whole article, I'll just put out the names. If interested in reading the details, please click the link. The author doesn't guarantee they'll be busts, just that they have the kind of issues that lead to a better chance at being a bust than expected

1 - QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson
2 - QB Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
3 - WR John Ross, Washington
4 - TE David Njoku, Miami (FL)
5 - DT Malik McDowell, Michigan State
6 - CB Marlon Humphrey, Alabama
7 - S Jabrill Peppers, Michigan

One of the most interesting comments (to me anyway) was that Njoku only caught 64 career passes - 40% of them BEHIND THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE. Wow!

bamagiantfan

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Re: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2017, 05:23:58 PM »
He missed a couple. That's all I have to say.
Go Giants!

Bob In PA

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Re: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft
« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2017, 05:25:39 PM »
JBG:  Our group zeroed in on many of the guys on that list.  Bob

Jolly Blue Giant

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Re: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2017, 05:31:30 PM »
JBG:  Our group zeroed in on many of the guys on that list.  Bob

Yeah, I know. Thanks anyway. I just read the article and felt like sharing. There's a lot of concerns and it seems like Reuben Foster should be heading that list. Most surprising to me was the knocks on John Ross and Marlon Humphrey. Of course, I haven't spent a lot of time studying WRs and CBs expected to go in the first round.

I also chuckled when the author compared Deshaun Watson to Tim Tebow. "Just because you played great in college doesn't mean you're NFL material. If that was the case, Tebow would be a star in the NFL instead of giving baseball a shot" (not exact words, but the general gist - typing from memory).

UKGiantsFan

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Re: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2017, 05:37:05 PM »
One of the most interesting comments (to me anyway) was that Njoku only caught 64 career passes - 40% of them BEHIND THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE. Wow!

True but that fits a certain narrative. It's also a fact that 11 of those 64 receptions went for 30+yards  :yes:

Bob In PA

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Re: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft
« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2017, 05:40:38 PM »
Yeah, I know. Thanks anyway. I just read the article and felt like sharing. There's a lot of concerns and it seems like Reuben Foster should be heading that list. Most surprising to me was the knocks on John Ross and Marlon Humphrey. Of course, I haven't spent a lot of time studying WRs and CBs expected to go in the first round.

I also chuckled when the author compared Deshaun Watson to Tim Tebow. "Just because you played great in college doesn't mean you're NFL material. If that was the case, Tebow would be a star in the NFL instead of giving baseball a shot" (not exact words, but the general gist - typing from memory).

JBG: I wasn't complaining.  I was congratulating us.   :D  Bob

Painter

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Re: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft
« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2017, 06:20:50 PM »
That's nothing more than click bait. He knows that there always are players drafted in Round 1 who don't live up to expectation. He knows also that it won't be immediately obvious who it turns out to be and so no one is going to remember if he wrong, or either way for that matter. By any objective standard most of those wags would be considered busts.

Still, it does serve as something like a dart board for those seeking confirmation bias. As there are no OTs on the list, he is either hedging his bets or figures none are going in Round 1.

Too bad there aren't prizes for such predictions. Something like if the majority of them don't bust, you get to hang by your thumbs.

Cheers!

Jolly Blue Giant

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Re: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft
« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2017, 06:34:06 PM »
That's nothing more than click bait. He knows that there always are players drafted in Round 1 who don't live up to expectation. He knows also that it won't be immediately obvious who it turns out to be and so no one is going to remember if he wrong, or either way for that matter. By any objective standard most of those wags would be considered busts.

Still, it does serve as something like a dart board for those seeking confirmation bias. As there are no OTs on the list, he is either hedging his bets or figures none are going in Round 1.

Too bad there aren't prizes for such predictions. Something like if the majority of them don't bust, you get to hang by your thumbs.

Cheers!

He actually has 3 OTs on his first round list Ramczyk (21), Robinson (22), Lamp (28). Here's his prospect list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q-TSHWYBjSQFhJn_vcdYGq0Z0JdpvF3v1QKH-8sRHqY/edit#gid=0

BTW, that snippit "confirmation bias" is great. I might borrow that when arguing with my buddies at the watering hole
« Last Edit: April 20, 2017, 06:36:24 PM by Jolly Blue Giant »

Painter

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Re: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft
« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2017, 06:57:31 PM »
JBG, all these threads about who is ranked/ rated where and by whom are driven essentially by confirmation bias.
If reason is designed to generate sound judgments, then it’s hard to conceive of a more serious design flaw than confirmation bias.

That's quite remarkable when you think about it. Then again, thinking about it not likely to change anyone's reasoning because it seems that our capacity for reason may have more to do with winning arguments than with thinking straight.

Cheers!

Jolly Blue Giant

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Re: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft
« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2017, 07:11:19 PM »
We are (for the most part) sheep. When one news story breaks, suddenly it's being repeated across the nation almost verbatim. Reminds me of the college kid that used a new expression on the radio when he was reporting a sports play that broke the game open. He said, and then, "boom goes the dynamite". A week later, every sports talking head in America was saying "boom goes the dynamite". Everyone copies everyone else. Fake news or "confirmation bias" takes on a life of it's own. Analysts and writers trying to keep their jobs read or listen to what their competition is saying and then borrow from their insight (which was borrowed from someone else, who also borrowed from someone else, etc., etc.) until the story takes on a life of it's own even if it's totally bogus and pretty soon, an opinion becomes carved in stone as fact simply because everyone built their opinions on the backs of others' opinion - and when it started, they were talking out their a$$ and suddenly it's gospel.

I have to assume that the Giants' scouting team, front office, and coaches ignore everything on the fan sites and fan magazines. At least I hope so.

Painter

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Re: 7 First Round Prospects Most Likely To Be Busts In The 2017 NFL Draft
« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2017, 09:02:59 PM »
Never in my long lifetime have facts and objective truth been more under siege than they are today. Our genius for creative storytelling, combined with our inability to detect our own ignorance, can sometimes lead to situations that range from embarrassing to downright dangerous especially in a technologically advanced, complex society that occasionally invests mistaken popular beliefs with immense destructive power.

Getting back to the specifics of something a little less heavy like the NFL Draft with its so called experts and their putative sources, it is production value not accuracy which elevates the NFL Network types and ESPN's Melvin Jr. and Todd! Todd! Todd! McShay over myriad others. And here's a little secret- Those among them we like most are not those with whom we agree, they are those who agree with us. That is confirmation bias.

Cheers!
« Last Edit: April 21, 2017, 05:46:19 AM by Painter »