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Messages - Gmo11

#1
What a wild 3rd period!  Don't often see a 2-1 game going into the 3rd end up at 6-5 but that's exactly what happened as each team traded haymakers for most of that period.  Not a ton of defense being played either way and a couple of flukey goals helped but the Rangers hung on to become the first team to clinch a playoff spot.
#2
This is a good idea and I'm glad the NFL is adopting it.  Currently a wide majority of kicks end up as touchbacks which are boring and just waste everybody's time.  Now we will see a lot more returns which means a lot more return TDs.  We will see what kind of effect that has on concussions if you don't have such a huge head start prior to contact.  In theory it should help in that area too.
#4
Man.  It's tough but I think I would.  Because I'm under the impression that this team isn't that far off from being pretty good if you add competent QB play.  But I wouldn't do it for Maye.  I would't think twice doing it for Daniels.  JJ would make me consider for a long time but I'd probably go for it.  Drake Maye means I pass.

But whatever package the Giants put together the Vikings are going to come over the top anyway.  If the Cardinals are willing to trade that pick I think it's going to the Vikings and only them.  They are a mostly complete team with a gaping hole at QB.  Unless they are somehow infatuated with Penix or Nix and plan to take one of them at 23...I think they will offer whatever it takes to get into the top 5 and jump the Giants for QB4. 
#5
Big Blue Huddle / Re: Rate the Brian Burns trade
March 22, 2024, 02:20:37 PM
Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 01:47:29 PMYou make some good points.

If Carolina was willing to trade with the Giants, then it seems like they were not going to tag him.  Yes maybe another team would have made an offer.  I really don't remember if another team made an offer for Williams (who by the way just signed another contract similar to the one he had with the Giants). 

If Burns ranks 12th in sacks over that period, how is he elite? This whole "sack win rate" and "pressures" is the exact stuff I heard when Olivier Vernon was signed.  Is he really worth the 2nd highest contract for an EDGE?  Guess we will find out.  Sure hope his presence helps Thibodeaux and him because neither has really set the world on fire. 

It could be a nightmare for opposing offenses if the run defense improves (not a strong point of Burns) AND the offense gets better.  Hoping to win with defense in today's NFL doesn't exactly inspire much confidence for me.  In order to do that you have to have some semblance of being able to move the ball consistently on offense to at least change field position.  It's just not a winning formula today. 

To me this move is similar in that DG really thought Williams would help the Giants the next year and thereafter compete with defense.  It was a desperation move on his part.  This move feels oddly similar for a HC that may be gone if he has another 6 win season. 

Like I said, I hope I am wrong and Burns is as good as advertised.  And they are able to win with defense.



I agree with the 2nd bolded part there.  Winning with defense isn't ideal anymore.  No argument.  However to win with offense you need a QB and the Giants don't have one.  So for this particular team, at least this particular season, they don't really have a choice.  The only other option would be to sign nobody at all, trade away everything of any value, and really make a run at the #1 pick in the draft next season.  And that's assuming they believe the #1 QB next year is a better prospect than JJ McCarthy or whoever ends up being the 4th QB this year and I'm not sure you'd get a consensus on that either way.

As to the first bolded part, yes the Vernon had a lot of similar rhetoric attached to him.  And to be fair I had high hopes for him too back then.  Clearly I was mistaken.  But I don't know if that's good enough reason to just not do stuff.  Once they made the Burns trade I watched a lot of video of him playing.  I'm not a coach or an expert by any means but I did like what I saw.  It gave me reason for optimism that when playing with Thibs/Dex one of those 3 guys should be able to consistently get to the QB on any given day.  You can't double all of them! 
#6
Big Blue Huddle / Re: Rate the Brian Burns trade
March 22, 2024, 01:15:26 PM
Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 12:21:06 PMWhy didn't they let Burns hit FA?  They could have paid him that big contract just like Williams.  The team went 6-11 this year, and started 2-8 rather than 1-7.  So because the Giants did it midseason rather than post-season that somehow makes the deal better?  Even though the team stunk both years?  Would the Burns trade have been worse if they made it when they were 2-8? Or the Williams trade better if it was just before he became a UFA?

What makes Burns "an elite pass rusher"  He was not even in the top 25 for sacks last year, he wasn't even close. He had 8 sacks last year, good to tie him for 40th best in the NFL.  The same amount as household names DJ Wonnum and Malcom Koonce.   

As for Williams being nothing special, I would very much make that argument for Burns who has averaged 9 sacks a season for 5 years and grades out as a below average run defender.  He has had over 10 sacks in a season once in 5 years.  Williams didn't have as many sacks, but his run defense was a lot better than that for the Jets.

Weren't two of the 3 games they won in that streak against Washington and NE?  Not exactly murderers row on the schedule there.

Sure hope you are right that this team is that close to competing.  I doubt it will be in 2024.  Even if they draft the next Patrick Mahomes I doubt the offense will be very good in that QBs rookie season.  You seem to have a lot of confidence in this team being good soon but I don't know where that comes from.  The current FO hasn't drafted anyone that jumped off the page as great in their first two years.  Maybe Banks will be that guy.  Thibodeaux did better last year, but hasn't lived up to where most had hope his level of play would be. The FA's that have been signed haven't been very good.

 The QB you seem to think that is going to lift the team needs to last to the 6th pick with at least 3 QB needy teams drafting in front of the Giants.  The current starter is coming off an ACL and his legs have been more a part of his game than his arm, the backup has been a turnover machine.  Further if they draft that QB at 6, they likely won't get a difference maker at a playmaking position in this draft. 

I would argue its likely:

1) The Giants won't make the playoffs next year and will pick in the top 10 again (only they won't have a high 2nd round pick this year)
2) They already signed Burns to a mega contract that he hasn't earned. (Williams deal made him the 7th highest paid DT, Burns makes him the 2nd highest paid EDGE and he is not the 2nd best EDGE in this league).
3) By the time the Giants are good again, one of these things will happen:  Burns will be a cap casualty, Dex will be a cap casualty or they will not sign Thibodeaux because they have already invested almost 60 million/year in the DL. 

I think any reasonable person could say those things are all very possible.

I wish I had your optimism.


Anything is possible.  But I would be a lot more surprised if those things all happened. And you're not really accounting for the big difference in a mid-season trade vs an off season one.  Yes, you let Williams hit free agency, it's 7 weeks away and by that point he was going to be a free agent no matter who traded for him.  Which they did.  Burns was highly unlikely to make it to free agency.  The Giants got him for so little that you can rest assured another team would have offered something similar and then signed him to this big deal.  Or at the very least franchise tagged him.  The jets made their intentions well known they were not going to franchise tag Williams and why would they?  He was a run stuffing DT with litle in the way of pass rushing skills at that time.

Burns is certainly an elite pass rusher.  He ranks 12th in Sacks and QB hits since his rookie season he was top 10 in pass rush win rate last season and all of that is without Dexter Lawrence next to him.  If the Rams were willing to give up 2 first round picks for this guy, in the midst of a playoff  run, what does that tell you?  If you're looking for him to be LT then...well...no he's not that.  But look around the league these days.  He's not in the TJ Watt category but he's not far away and he's been doing it on his own.  Now he's got Thibs and Dexy.  So yea you're projecting a bit but that's the nature of this business. Thibs/Dex/Burns should make it a nightmare for opposing offenses.

The QB play the Giants were afforded last year was some of the worst you'll ever see.  Yes, Washington and New England were two of the teams Devito beat (Along with the pretty good Packers by the way) but he shouldn't be good enough to beat any team.  He's, respectfully, atrocious.  That defense dragged him to 3 wins and they just added a very nice piece to it.  Yes they lost McKinney and Adoree Jackson (who was nothing special last year) but otherwise this defense is coming back mostly intact but with Burns added to it.

Giants are pretty clearing planning on winning with defense for at least this season and likely the next couple.  They've got a bunch of young talented players on that side of the ball and if the offense can give them just league average performance that's going to mean a huge lift in the wins column. 

Anything can happen, this is all a gamble and there's risk in every decision.  Could this whole thing blow up?  Sure it could.  But the Williams thing blowing up was more than predictable.  This would be surprising to me if it completely blew up. 
#7
Big Blue Huddle / Re: Rate the Brian Burns trade
March 22, 2024, 11:36:25 AM
Quote from: uconnjack8 on March 22, 2024, 10:47:34 AMWhen this trade first happened I couldn't help think of the Olivier Vernon signing because it was a lot of projection off of what people deemed to be his potential as a pass rusher.  The more I think about it, it seems eerily similar to the trading and signing of Leonard Williams.

Can someone tell me why this trade is much different from the Leonard Williams trade?

In principle they are similar in that they traded for a player at the end of a contract that they would need to sign to keep.  The trade capital is a 2nd rounder vs a 3rd and a 5th. 

Other than Williams being an IDL and Burns being a DE, I don't see much difference.  The team stunk in both of the seasons that trade was made, with the exception that Williams was mid-season and Burns post. 

Williams contract was signed for a 3 year deal that made him the 7th highest paid player at his position, Burns is a 5 year deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid player at his position. 

Why does this trade have most people on this forum cheering and the Williams trade had almost everyone booing?  What am I missing?

There are a couple of big differences.  The first being that Leonard Williams was a mid-season trade when he was about to hit free agency if the Giant were so enamored with him, they could have simply given him the same ridiculous contract the eventually gave him anyway, and saved the picks. 

The next is that the Giants were something like 1-7 at the time of the trade.  If they are entering the trade market at that point it SHOULD be to get rid of guys and collect draft picks, not the other way around.  The Burns trade was during the offseason when, presumably, the team at least has hope to be much better than what they were at the time of the Williams trade.  We knew that team stunk out loud, this 2024 team might not especially if they can draft a competent QB.

Another difference is that Williams to that point, had been nothing special.  A solid though not spectacular DT.  It didn't make any sort of sense to make that trade at that time for a player of that level.  Burns has been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL from the minute he walked in the door.  This is an elite level pass rusher.  The 2024 Giants are going to be a defense first team, that much is clear, and he's better than pretty much any free agent the Giants could have reasonably acquired on defense. 

The Giants went on a 3-game winning streak with Tommmy Freaking Devito at QB last season.  This is not a team like the Panthers or even the 1-7 Giants from a few years ago that has no real hope of competing any time soon. 

When they made that trade for Williams you knew, well everybody but Gettleman anyway, that the following things were going to happen: 

1) they will not make the playoffs that season and pick again in the top 10 (only now without a high 3rd round pick)
2) they will re-sign Williams to a mega-contract that he hasn't earned because they can't let him walk after making that trade and Williams and his team know they have absolutely all of the leverage
3) by the time the Giants are good again, Williams won't be on the roster.

Anybody could have reasonably predicted those 3 things happening immediately after the deal was announced and that's exactly what happened.  I don't know if the Giants are going to be awful next year or not.  It depends on the QB position because I think the defense is going to be pretty good.  But they have a real shot at being good in 2025 if they can find even average QB play by then.  So Burns absolutely figures into that.
#8
Big Blue Huddle / Re: Giants at JJ's Pro Day
March 22, 2024, 10:36:38 AM
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 22, 2024, 10:33:07 AMI like JJ at 6 (if the Giants like him).  I don't like trading up for JJ or any other QB.  This roster has too many holes to give up more draft picks.

I'm with you.  I would prefer not to trade up for any of these QBs.  But I just can't stand another season of Jones without at least the promise of hope.  Jones is just good enough to not get the Giants the #1 pick next year but not good enough to win a championship with and he's going to be starting next year so at least with a rookie on the roster we know it's only one more year of Jones torture.  If they don't draft one now...who knows who long this will go on for.
#9
There's not much reason to re-hash the worst GM in Giants history and perhaps in the sports' history...just rest assured that whatever he would have done the last couple of drafts would have been wrong.  Very Very wrong. 

He'd have been laughed at for doing it.  Mocked the people laughing at him.  And then ultimately be proven to be monumentally and catastrophically wrong. 
#10
Big Blue Huddle / Re: Giants at JJ's Pro Day
March 22, 2024, 10:23:43 AM
I think the Vikings are going to offer up the farm to get into either #4 or #5 to take whichever QB is left knowing that QB isn't getting past 6, and they have the ammo to do it.  If the Giants really love JJ and want to take him, they may have to trade up to prevent the Vikings from getting there first.  That Vikings team is solid from top to bottom except that they don't currently employ a QB of any substance.
#11
They played excellent defense that 3rd period and this despite missing two of their top 4 defensemen.  I wasn't thrilled with their parking the bus effort for most of the period but to their credit they got it done.  Quick stood tall but the defense in front of him to me was the big story.  There were not a ton of high quality chances late in the game despite the fact that they were sitting on a precious 1 goal lead most of that time. 

And oh what a season from Panarin! Another hatty! That's 3 on the season after having I believe 4 in his career coming into this year.
#12
That guy Hellebuyuck is a menace!  Against mere mortals the Rangers would have jumped ahead in that first period but against this freak...not so much.  Not a terrible performance, though the late penalty was a bit of a bummer, but they held their own and created plenty of chances just couldn't get it past that goalie.
#13
After the first two seasons this kid has had they shouldn't need to ask his permission to do anything.  If he can beat out the new guy for RT then that's terrific.  I'm not holding my breath.  And if he can't they should absolutely see if he can be remotely useful as a guard. It'd be tough for him to be worse there than he was at RT or worse than the recent guard play of the Giants in general.
#14
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on March 15, 2024, 01:06:32 PMIn the consensus mock draft of tens of thousands, they have Joe Alt going 5th, Nabors going 6th, Fashanu going 7th, Turner 8th, Odunze 9th, Fuaga 10th, McCarthy 11th https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2024/consensus-mock-draft-2024

If we know anything about previous drafts, pretty much everything we expect goes right out the window on draft day. Shockingly different from the carefully layed out plan suggested by the Gurus of NFLTV and other sources

Was that before or after the Chargers lost their top two WRs though? That's a rather glaring need for them all of a sudden.  Anything is certainly possible but without a trade I don't see how any of the top 5 picks don't end up as a QB or a WR
#15
Big Blue Huddle / Re: Minnesota acquired 23rd pick
March 15, 2024, 12:00:26 PM
Quote from: JT39 on March 15, 2024, 11:56:20 AMJones starting this year will be the worst decision this team has made since hiring Gettleman.

Not if they draft a QB at #6.  Run Jones out there and lose a lot.  Let the kid sit and learn.  Kid starts next season fresh with a year's worth of NFL playbook/practice under his belt and the Giants get ready to actually compete with another high draft pick.  They can't cut Jones so they might as well throw him out there.