Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Ed Vette on Today at 12:03:06 PMInterested why you don't see Dallas Turner as a first-rounder.

He will go first round because he has decent stats and went to Bama but when I watched him I just did not see a single exceptional trait I could hang my evaluation around.

He's a high day two guy for me who will be solid, maybe even a bit more if in a favourable situation with others drawing double teams but I did not see an alpha dog.

There have been a lot of Crimson Tide edges with good stats over-drafted down the years and that tipped me out rather than in.

Mighty, I back and forth with Ceri for months in the run up to the draft so I guess a bit of my brain seeps into his around the edges. At this point my Board is specific only to players I would take (so fit as well as grade) but by position and within position in order here are my first rounders:

QB: Williams*, Maye*, McCarthy, Daniels
RB: N/A
TE: Bowers
WR: Harrison Jr*, Odunze*, Nabers, Thomas Jr
OT: Alt, Fuaga, Latham, Fashanu, Fautanu
IOL: Barton
ED: Verse
DE/DT: Murphy
LB: N/A
S/NCB: N/A
CB: Mitchell, Arnold

19 in total

Of the above I only have 4 with potential gold-jacket/multiple all-pro grades as indicated by *

If I have any medical or character Qs I exclude them from * status but keep in R1 if I deem them 'minor'

4 bigger medical Qs not included above but grade high enough for me if cleared to have a R1 grade: Latu, Newton, DeJean, McKinstry

Just my view. My lack of love for the D guys shines through with some notable omissions.

I do not see NE trading back. They are in disarray with a spoilt fanbase increasingly listless. Kraft knows he needs a QB to generate some hype and create a reason for fans to spend.

The perceived hot QB market may be leading other teams to ask for potentially unrealistic packages to trade back (lots of rumours that it would take "historic" deals to shift AZ or LAC). Will they shift position on draft day? Is Minnesota or Denver desperate enough to massively overpay? Maybe.

Thankfully we will know soon!

Media chaos is preferable to QB hell. If you knew the QB you draft would be at least league average you'd take chaos every time. Sadly that is not guaranteed but if you have a conviction for a guy then it is better to get fired for the risks you did take rather than the ones you didn't. We are ready for chaos!

It is an interesting debate but I think they have overstated to get maximum attention/coverage and it is not necessarily reflective of current GM sentiment.

I have listened to pre-draft interviews with Wolf and Ossenfort in the last week or so (looking for clues with them at 3,4) as well as Schoen. All three indicated they had at least a "normal" (assume 20 or so) set of first round grades (Schoen actually leant towards deep in my interpretation of his words).

They all seemed to feel the draft was relatively deep day 2. They all noted NIL had thinned options out but Schoen spelt out that day 3 depth depended on position with some deep right until the end and others much thinner. How day 3 looks depends on what you need and your willingness to draft BPA rather than reaching for need.

In the last couple of days both the Colts (7 picks) and Packers (11) GMs have indicated they'd be open to trading back for "more bullets". Not something you would expect if quality was seen as desperately thin.

Without a doubt NIL is having an impact. FWIW I have more first round grades than I did last year driven by QB, OL and WR where I have a combined 14 vs 7 last year. The D is definitely thinner at the top. I had 5 CB rated as high or higher last year than my favourite guy this year (Mitchell) and my top Edge this year would have been ED4 last year. So for me it is not a D draft day one but D arguably offers better day 3 depth (with only RB having nice depth on O). Smart GMs will adjust accordingly.

The media has a tendency to be wise after the event. At the time they said lots of nice things and were high on him. There were caveats about size, low level of competition and takes too many risks but they were not given a lot of weight.

These were typical write-ups:

https://bleacherreport.com/zach-wilson-scouting-report

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Zach-Wilson-QB-BY

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/zach-wilson-nfl-draft-player-profile-byu-quarterback/

On a quick search I only found one significant naysayer rating him as a third round three year project. Most of the big name NFL Network & ESPN guys drank the kool-aid, downplaying any concerns. Brugler, Kiper, McShay all had him top ten rated and mainly QB2 or 3 and felt the Jets hit a home run taking him.

The lesson? QBs get talked up every year and drafted high. They do not always deserve it. Even if they have the talent a lot can still go wrong. Drafting a guy you "love" is no predictor of success.

A bit less than New England got for Jones and Chicago got for Fields. If you get it wrong at QB (particularly if you give up assets to trade up for one) then you pay a severe price.

Given that the hit rate in R1 is c. 50% on QB and certainly no better when trading up for one this is the nightmare scenario that we could face this year. Is the worst case outcome worse than more Jones? That is the opinion divider!

No matter what Schoen does/does not do we will need a lot of luck on our side for once to get a good outcome.

They might well think the FA pick up Dante Miller can be the third down/gadget guy.

Brightwell seems pigeon-holed as the ST/sometimes short yardage guy.

Gray did nothing well (run, block, catch) as a rookie but might yet emerge as a viable #2 guy in the rotation behind Motor.

My gut is they will think the big risk/need is a reliable option to be a higher workload RB2 who can carry the load as RB1 if Singletary gets hurt.

Somebody like Allen, Estime (Ceri's beloved choice!) or Isaiah Davis might fit that bill on day 3.

William Joseph shocked me as I was just starting in my draft interest and he was one of my "no way" guys. The least surprising was Saquon as Gettleman might as well have had his name tattooed on his forehead he made it so obvious what he was doing. I was a big fan of AT so I was delighted when we took him.

Tucked away in the medical section of Albert Breer's long Monday Morning SI column today is the nugget that both Nabers and Thomas Jr have shoulder injuries flagged from the combine process that might see one, other or both need surgery after a season or two. It is the only place I have seen this so I thought it was worth flagging here.

Neal or Eluemunor is playing RT this year. I am almost certain we are not taking a T in either R1 or 2. I could possibly see a developmental swing T mid rounds though I think there are bigger needs/better values elsewhere in R3 & 4.

Of course you do. Address a key need, with a great chance to address another with pick 12 then get a player who can help with an extra R3 shot and also stockpile the ammunition to draft or trade for a QB in 2025. No-brainer.

First time round Wellman introduced elements of yoga and the non-martial arts (tai-chi specifically). I suspect his return will see shifts towards more flexibility, bodyweight, resistance and high intensity work to complement traditional lifting more in line with developing trends in other sports. It will be worth watching.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 19, 2024, 12:06:09 PMIt's funny about Denver.  As an admittedly non-Denver fan, it would seem like the Broncos would be well served by sitting tight and drafting Bo Nix at 12.  He would seem to be the perfect QB for what Sean Payton likes to run.

I thought that as well but their beat guys (including Allbright who is wired in with them) all think Sean Payton is in deep man love with JJ McCarthy. Smoke season of course.

The top 3 were exactly as I expected them to be and precisely in line with my view. I am surprised some are surprised.