Big Blue Huddle

General Category => NFL Draft, NY Giants style => Topic started by: MightyGiants on February 25, 2017, 07:38:25 AM

Title: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: MightyGiants on February 25, 2017, 07:38:25 AM
From a former NFL scout

Daniel Jeremiah  @MoveTheSticks
9h
This draft is so deep. I have about 70 guys worthy of a top 50 spot. The 2nd/3rd round is going to produce a lot of future pro bowlers.
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: UKGiantsFan on February 25, 2017, 08:30:27 AM
The problem is every board I use on the simulator has the same result - the top 3 TE's are gone, I just miss out on a DE that fits either and either have to reach for a T or RB. Worrying as all the best players available are DB's or players at positions we need who don't fit our size/schematic needs.
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: MightyGiants on February 25, 2017, 09:16:55 AM
Quote from: UKGiantsFan on February 25, 2017, 08:30:27 AM
The problem is every board I use on the simulator has the same result - the top 3 TE's are gone, I just miss out on a DE that fits either and either have to reach for a T or RB. Worrying as all the best players available are DB's or players at positions we need who don't fit our size/schematic needs.

Ceri,

It's still early in the process.  I am sure the draft needs will change once free agency settles out and I also see the boards changing drastically with the Combine.   I suspect there will be more movement by those with connections in the league from rubbing elbows with all the league front office and scouting staffs than what we see in the Combine (not that there will not be Combine winners and losers who push their draft stock one way or the other).
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: sooners56 on February 25, 2017, 09:59:27 AM
Any chance the best player and value on the board is a CB who the Giants just have to select?


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Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: MightyGiants on February 25, 2017, 10:04:41 AM
Here were the choices when I ran the draft simulator (Draft Tek's board and fan voted team needs)

11 RB  DALVIN COOK - FLORIDA ST
17 WR  JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER - USC
18 OT  RYAN RAMCZYK - WISCONSIN
20 EDGE  TAKKARIST MCKINLEY - UCLA
21 CB  JOURDAN LEWIS - MICHIGAN
24 DL  MALIK MCDOWELL - MICHIGAN ST
26 LB  JARRAD DAVIS - FLORIDA
27 QB  BRAD KAAYA - MIAMI (FL)
28 OT  CAM ROBINSON - ALABAMA
29 CB  ADOREE' JACKSON - USC
30 EDGE  TIM WILLIAMS - ALABAMA
33 G  FORREST LAMP - W KENTUCKY
34 CB  SIDNEY JONES - WASHINGTON
35 CB  GAREON CONLEY - OHIO ST
36 EDGE  CHARLES HARRIS - MISSOURI
37 DL  CALEB BRANTLEY - FLORIDA
38 QB  PATRICK MAHOMES II - TEXAS TECH
40 S  JABRILL PEPPERS - MICHIGAN
41 G  DORIAN JOHNSON - PITTSBURGH
42 S  MARCUS WILLIAMS - UTAH
43 EDGE  CARL LAWSON - AUBURN
44 EDGE  DEMARCUS WALKER - FLORIDA ST
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: Bob In PA on February 25, 2017, 10:06:56 AM
Quote from: sooners56 on February 25, 2017, 09:59:27 AM
Any chance the best player and value on the board is a CB who the Giants just have to select?


sooner: There is a high likelihood that the best player will be a CB; it's possible they could hope to trade down if that happens.

Generally, it will be interesting to see whether they stick to best-player-available strategy throughout this draft, because it is so deep.

If it does turn out to be a cornerback, I think they will take him IF they think he can cover the slot.

Bob
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: todge on February 25, 2017, 11:21:02 AM
Quote from: Bob In PA on February 25, 2017, 10:06:56 AM
sooner: There is a high likelihood that the best player will be a CB; it's possible they could hope to trade down if that happens.

Generally, it will be interesting to see whether they stick to best-player-available strategy throughout this draft, because it is so deep.

If it does turn out to be a cornerback, I think they will take him IF they think he can cover the slot.

Bob

Sorry Bob but I disagree. Even though the Giants claim they use the BPA philosophy, history tells us that it is "best player at a position of need".  After drafting Apple last year, I would say it is very unlikely they would use another 1st Round pick on a nickel/dime CB.  That type of player might be selected in the latter Rounds. They have too many other needs to fill on this team right now than CB.


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Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: AZGiantFan on February 25, 2017, 11:59:29 AM
The mantra used to be that you never have too many pass rushers.  As the league evolves, and as the spread, well, spreads, and we see more and more 4 and 5 receiver sets, maybe the new mantra should be you never have too many pass coverage guys.
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: beaugestus on February 25, 2017, 02:06:50 PM
COGIANT, I think you make a good point. We have seen that many teams are making it a point for the QB to release the ball as quick as possible. With the no contact rules benefitting the WRs it places a premium on good cover DBs. We saw how the Gmen benefitted from having 3 good cover CBs and the maturing of Collins. Also to think that injury does not come into play during the season and playoffs is not realistic.
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: Bob In PA on February 25, 2017, 04:16:47 PM
Quote from: todge on February 25, 2017, 11:21:02 AM
Sorry Bob but I disagree. Even though the Giants claim they use the BPA philosophy, history tells us that it is "best player at a position of need".  After drafting Apple last year, I would say it is very unlikely they would use another 1st Round pick on a nickel/dime CB.  That type of player might be selected in the latter Rounds. They have too many other needs to fill on this team right now than CB.


Ted: I'm just playing the odds, because IMO the "strength" of free-agency does not match well with the Giants' needs; similarly, although this draft is deep in talent, the depth is also not a great match.

Top-notch free-agents (and 1st- and 2nd-round players) will be available to the Giants, but not at the positions of greatest need.

I believe they will (wisely IMO) flow with the strength of the draft and free-agency and not "force" anything; desperation usually produces bad results.

For these reasons, this off-season should be EXTRA interesting for us arm-chair GM's to watch.

Bob
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: Jaime on February 25, 2017, 04:50:48 PM
From what I've been able to glean thus far, the Draft is deep, really deep at Corner, Running Back & DT. The hype regarding DE and TE I believe, should be tempered with the availability of the specific skill-set u r seeking. Too many of the DE's are essentially 3-4 Rush Backers. Check out How many of the  TE's are oversized wide receivers?  Both positions have a lot of talent, but lack the size to give us a good fit for our respective Schemes. :-??

With the 23rd overall selection, if the best player there on the board is a Corner, we should take him and run! Can't have too many Corners, damn straight! Four WR sets aside, Think of it this way guys. A twisted knee and your Slot becomes a starter. Two Twisted knees, and your Dime becomes a starter. U can have a good front seven, but if your Corners can't cover, you got major problems in today's NFL :yes:

Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: MP21WAYS2PAY on February 26, 2017, 06:03:39 AM
Quote from: COGiantFan on February 25, 2017, 11:59:29 AM
The mantra used to be that you never have too many pass rushers.  As the league evolves, and as the spread, well, spreads, and we see more and more 4 and 5 receiver sets, maybe the new mantra should be you never have too many pass coverage guys.

If the worst case scenario is we come out of the 1st round with a elite/very good corner, I will sleep well.  I know there are some great TE options at the top of the draft, and I would be thrilled to get one of them, but the draft is also deep at TE, so if we can get a very good TE in round 2 or 3, I am ok with that.

Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: MP21WAYS2PAY on February 26, 2017, 06:44:43 AM
Quote from: UKGiantsFan on February 25, 2017, 08:30:27 AM
The problem is every board I use on the simulator has the same result - the top 3 TE's are gone, I just miss out on a DE that fits either and either have to reach for a T or RB. Worrying as all the best players available are DB's or players at positions we need who don't fit our size/schematic needs.

Ceri, I am looking forward to your review of the TEs, who is your #3 TE, Everett?
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: Bob In PA on February 26, 2017, 10:06:22 AM
Quote from: Jaime on February 25, 2017, 04:50:48 PM
From what I've been able to glean thus far, the Draft is deep, really deep at Corner, Running Back & DT. The hype regarding DE and TE I believe, should be tempered with the availability of the specific skill-set u r seeking. Too many of the DE's are essentially 3-4 Rush Backers. Check out How many of the  TE's are oversized wide receivers?  Both positions have a lot of talent, but lack the size to give us a good fit for our respective Schemes. :-??

With the 23rd overall selection, if the best player there on the board is a Corner, we should take him and run! Can't have too many Corners, damn straight! Four WR sets aside, Think of it this way guys. A twisted knee and your Slot becomes a starter. Two Twisted knees, and your Dime becomes a starter. U can have a good front seven, but if your Corners can't cover, you got major problems in today's NFL :yes:


Jaime: This is also my attitude toward the situation. Well said. Bob
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: President Rick on February 26, 2017, 10:35:21 AM
Ditto, Jaime and Bob.  Look at it this way...who is easier to replace late camp to mid season, a servicable DE or a CB who won't be giving up TD's every game?  We can get the OL, TE and DE in rds 2-4, as well as having FA to nab 1-2 of those guys.  I don't know of an affordable CB of the ability say of Eli Apple we can land [or if we do we cap out of FA then and there].  Excellent analysis.
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: Shoelessjoe on February 26, 2017, 11:35:43 AM
You have to let the draft come to you especially if you are picking at 23.
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: Philosophers on February 26, 2017, 12:11:41 PM
Shoeless - that is 100% correct.  All the "I want this player" means little when the draft moves away from you.  A team has to have a diverse strategy that encompasses various draft scenarios.  One thing we forget is that they are on the clock and when all of a sudden something that seems unfathomable happens such as the 1996 draft when they thought they thought with the 5th pick, they'd get either Simeon Rice or Jonathan Ogden as they thought for sure Lawrence Phillips would be drafted before their pick.  Well, that didn't happen and they had to adjust on the fly and took Cedric Jones.  They didn't have a plan.
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: Bob In PA on February 26, 2017, 12:40:52 PM
Quote from: Shoelessjoe on February 26, 2017, 11:35:43 AM
You have to let the draft come to you especially if you are picking at 23.
Quote from: Philosophers on February 26, 2017, 12:11:41 PM
Shoeless - that is 100% correct.  All the "I want this player" means little when the draft moves away from you.  A team has to have a diverse strategy that encompasses various draft scenarios.  One thing we forget is that they are on the clock and when all of a sudden something that seems unfathomable happens such as the 1996 draft when they thought they thought with the 5th pick, they'd get either Simeon Rice or Jonathan Ogden as they thought for sure Lawrence Phillips would be drafted before their pick.  Well, that didn't happen and they had to adjust on the fly and took Cedric Jones.  They didn't have a plan.

Phil and Joe:  I think you just line up the players on your paper and cross off the players picked, then when it's your turn you evaluate the POSITIONS that have been taken with an eye toward what is likely to be left on your NEXT pick, then you make your CURRENT pick.  This system allows you to adjust in two ways: first, if the top remaining player on your list plays a position that has already been "popular" in the picks before you, you can just take that player; second, if the position of the next player has so far been ignored, you also have the option of skipping over that guy if, for example, the next guy below him on your list plays a position where the draft is weak or where there's greater need.

I believe this is what the Giants already do.

IMO, the problem for us "observers" is not the systematic approach the Giants use, but rather that we often disagree with the order in which they've placed the players on their list.  Since they spend more time assembling their list than I do, I usually tend to give them the benefit of the doubt, figuring they know a whole lot more than I do.

Bob
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: beaugestus on February 26, 2017, 12:45:42 PM
I am very skeptical when teams draft a player who just so happens to fill a need with a high pick . IMO, a case in point was the drafting of Flowers at #9. It has been pointed out with some here at the time, he was lacking in his footwork and overall technique. Yet, JR and company select him and here we are going into his 3rd season wanting to replace him. While adding insult to injury, now there is the question, "where can he fit in the OL"?  Some say he's too tall to be a G and DTs will be able to get underneath his pads and at RT he will still have the same deficiencies at RT that he has for LT.

It really rubs me the wrong way when you have the opportunity to draft with a top 10 pick and looks like it might be a disaster still going forward. So here we are again and at #23 with the same problem in a draft with from what I read, a OT poor draft. I say if the best "player" available is a CB one of the strongest positions on the team, you grab him. And if you want to rationalize, DRC is not getting any younger, he always seems to get nicked up and he is a large CAP expense. We could use another RB, WR, LB, DE, DT. I'd rather select a player who will come in with most of the essential attributes of his position and  add to the overall quality of the team and not have to address it again in the near future.
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: Painter on February 26, 2017, 03:02:01 PM
You are supposed to be able to find a topnotch player in the second round no less than in the first round even if we consider that the media only gets about 80 percent of its top-100 rankings right. The Giants picks are 27 and 53.

Is there any reason to think of the Giants as any more or less able to get a topnotch player in Round 2 of this year's Draft as compared to say any of the last five: 2016 Sterling Shepard; 2015 Landon Collins; 2014 Weston Richburg; 2013 Jonathan Hankins; 2012 Rueben Randle.

No, Randle wasn't topnotch but that had little to do with his having been a second rounder in what was a singularly lousy Giants' Draft overall. Indeed, he might be faintly praised as the best of a sorry lot in 2012. I suppose we could view it as either encouraging or worrisome that only since 2012 has Reese & Co done materially better than in its years before.

As we can find as many as 10 Edge Rushers ranked in the Top-10, then should that becomes a position of need, waiting until Round 2 seems plausible.  The quantity/quality distribution among DBs also would admit patience. Of course, the depth in those areas also may make it more likely that others will choose to target those positions we think the Giants will or should be.

Still, whether it's a TE, an OLT, a RB they target in Round 1, they should be able to a topnotch player in Round 2.

Cheers!

Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: Shoelessjoe on February 26, 2017, 09:27:21 PM
Quote from: Bob In PA on February 26, 2017, 12:40:52 PM
Phil and Joe:  I think you just line up the players on your paper and cross off the players picked, then when it's your turn you evaluate the POSITIONS that have been taken with an eye toward what is likely to be left on your NEXT pick, then you make your CURRENT pick.  This system allows you to adjust in two ways: first, if the top remaining player on your list plays a position that has already been "popular" in the picks before you, you can just take that player; second, if the position of the next player has so far been ignored, you also have the option of skipping over that guy if, for example, the next guy below him on your list plays a position where the draft is weak or where there's greater need.

I believe this is what the Giants already do.

IMO, the problem for us "observers" is not the systematic approach the Giants use, but rather that we often disagree with the order in which they've placed the players on their list.  Since they spend more time assembling their list than I do, I usually tend to give them the benefit of the doubt, figuring they know a whole lot more than I do.

Bob

On Path to the Draft, they at times do an exercise called Cluster Busting.  This is where they have a group of say 5 players that are pretty close in their rating.  They try to break the players out in some kind of order.  This is done before the draft by teams so that when they get some idea as to which way to go.  It's easy to select a player that you have rated much higher then anyone else however, when you get players who are clustered closely you need to have an idea as to which way you need to go.  It's not as simple as just taking the next player off of the list.
Title: Re: Giants should be able to find top notch player in the second round
Post by: todge on February 26, 2017, 10:48:31 PM
Quote from: MP21WAYS2PAY on February 26, 2017, 06:03:39 AM
If the worst case scenario is we come out of the 1st round with a elite/very good corner, I will sleep well.  I know there are some great TE options at the top of the draft, and I would be thrilled to get one of them, but the draft is also deep at TE, so if we can get a very good TE in round 2 or 3, I am ok with that.

One added point - the Draft is not deep in OLs. So that increases the likelihood that an OT will be taken in the 1st or 2nd Rounds knowing full well that other needs can be filled with positions if greater depth.

Also - I would state that the odds of a nickel/dime CB being drafted again in Round One are 99-1.


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