Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: kingm56 on Today at 04:31:39 AMYes he would! He would be the same Patrick during SB against TB, when he was hitting WR/TE 30 yards downfield from a horizontal position, playing behind an atrocious oline.  Was there any doubt he was the best player on the field that evening?  You simply can't hide that type of talent! The same was true for Joe Burrow, playing behind an Oline that allowed an NFL high 19-sacks during their playoff run. You can throw-in Herberts record-breaking rookie season behind the NFL #32 ranked oline.  I could go on-and-on about QBs who still produced playing behind terrible lines in the modern era.  To be clear, I freely admit the W/L will be impacted; however, a QB can still produce and showcase unique abilities playing behind below-avg OLs.  To date, DJ has done neither... 

Hi King,

Again, thank you so much for your contributions to the thread. However, may I address your comments defending Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay?

I decided to look up his stats in that game, may I share them with you?

Here they are:

26/49 53% 270 Yards 0 TD 2 Int 42.2 QBR 52.3 RTG

And the Chiefs put up 9 points and lost 31-9.

So, I'm not sure I would use that argument that Mahomes would still be producing at a high level when his offensive line was getting manhandled by the Bucs in that game.

So, some more rhetorical questions for you, but if Mahomes was under this kind of pressure for a full 17 game season, would he still be producing the same numbers that he is now?

And

B) If he was under this kind of pressure over a 5 year period, could he possibly of gotten injured? and could this have affected his QB play? Or would this have no impact on his play whatsoever?

Just curious your thoughts? 

Quote from: londonblue on April 19, 2024, 10:09:46 AMWe will know soon. The Giants need better players. That definitely starts at QB but it applies to pretty much every area of the team. It is not a one year fix. The argument is really about the order things get addressed.

I am coming round to our likeliest option being a trade back to late round 1 (Buffalo and 49ers both reportedly keen to come up into WR range) to add a day 2 pick this year and a R1 2025 pick. It would let us tackle an extra need this year and give us ammunition to go for QB1 or 2 from next year's shallower pool.

This makes sense to me because I think we get outbid in trade up discussions to get QB 3 or 4 in this year's supposedly bumper crop but I do expect us to at least try.

Of course, Schoen will analyze all scenarios available to him, in addition to those requiring an investment for draft positioning.

In the end, build the team, fix the damn Offensive Line and, if the QB he covets is available, then go for ot; otherwise, get a blue chip player which makes the team better. In thr end, things won't get better without better players suiting up in the Big Blue.

Peace!

Quote from: kingm56 on Today at 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

Hi King,

Thank you so much for your contribution and your willingness to contribute to the thread.

I would like to add to Mighty and Philosophers fine comments regarding skill position attributes and sack rate.

You had mentioned Justin Herbert, which I think we both would agree is a very good QB.

However, in my original post, I had shared the data over a five-year period regarding DJ, and not just one.

Can we do the same with Herbert?

Chargers offensive lines over the last four years

- 2020 ranked 32nd -
- 2021 ranked 10th -
- 2022 ranked 12th -
- 2023 ranked 9th -

So, while it is true that Herbert produced with the 32nd ranked O line for one year back in 2020, since that time his O lines have been upgraded ranking 10th, 12th, and 9th respectively.

Rhetorical questions here, but

A) If Herberts O lines were ranked 30th, 32nd, 30th, and 31st over the past four years, would he have still consistently put up the same numbers?

B) If he was getting sacked and hit as much as DJ has been over the same four years, could he possibly have gotten injured?

C) Would that have affected his QB play? Or would he still be producing at a high rate and it would have no affect on him?

Just curious your thoughts?

Quote from: Philosophers on Today at 08:57:05 AMLet's use number of sacks as that is a better measurement.

2023 - Daniel Jones - played in 6 games, sacked 30 times, 160 pass attempts so was sacked once every 5.33 pass attempts.

2020 - Justin Herbert - played in 15 games, sacked only 32 times, 595 pass attempts so was sacked once every 18.6 pass attempts.

2021 - Tua - played in 13 games, sacked only 20 times, 388 pass attempts so was sacked once every 19.4 pass attempts.

2023 - Geno Smith - played in 15 games, sacked only 31 times, 499 pass attempts so sacked once every 16.1 pass attempts.

Kyler Murray - played in only 8 games, sacked only 18 times, 268 pass attempts so sacked once every 14.9 pass attempts.

These QBs you cite were not getting pressured at anything remotely close to what DJ endured.  Sacked every 5.33 attempts versus 14 - 19 attempts is statistically very meaningful and very different.  Your comparison is not remotely reasonable.  I am not saying DJ is a good QB or as good as the QBs you cite.   

QBs have zero culpability on plays that end in sacks?  Is it possible DJ is sacked a lot as a byproduct of his limited processing and/or awareness? 

Quote from: Philosophers on Today at 09:27:45 AMI read something amazing yesterday from one of the ex-NFL execs.  He said that for QB prospects, the teams have 60% more information than the public (ESPN and NFL Network draft pundits, fans, etc.) has.  Things like medical information, psychological testing, detailed private visits from prospects in which they sit down with video and a white board and get grilled by coaches about what they see, etc.  He noted that fans need to stop thinking they have enough info to form a judgment on a player when in fact they have very little.

That's along the same lines I heard from HOF GM Bill Polian.

Quote from: Ed Vette on Today at 07:56:05 AMStrands #48
"Walk this way"
🔵🔵🔵🟡
🔵🔵🔵🔵

 

I read something amazing yesterday from one of the ex-NFL execs.  He said that for QB prospects, the teams have 60% more information than the public (ESPN and NFL Network draft pundits, fans, etc.) has.  Things like medical information, psychological testing, detailed private visits from prospects in which they sit down with video and a white board and get grilled by coaches about what they see, etc.  He noted that fans need to stop thinking they have enough info to form a judgment on a player when in fact they have very little.

Quote from: kingm56 on Today at 04:31:39 AMYes he would! He would be the same Patrick during SB against TB, when he was hitting WR/TE 30 yards downfield from a horizontal position, playing behind an atrocious oline.  Was there any doubt he was the best player on the field that evening?  You simply can't hide that type of talent! The same was true for Joe Burrow, playing behind an Oline that allowed an NFL high 19-sacks during their playoff run. You can throw-in Herberts record-breaking rookie season behind the NFL #32 ranked oline.  I could go on-and-on about QBs who still produced playing behind terrible lines in the modern era.  To be clear, I freely admit the W/L will be impacted; however, a QB can still produce and showcase unique abilities playing behind below-avg OLs.  To date, DJ has done neither... 

You can't cite just one game and conclude a player would play at a high level under those conditions always.  That is simply not statistically reasonable to use a 1 game sample.

I agree he played well in that game.  However let's see him get sacked 60 times in a 17 game season and instead of getting sacked every 15 - 18 times he throws the ball, he gets sacked every 5-6 times he throws the ball.  What will happen? 

He will start to get very frustrated he is getting hit that much and that frustration will boil over to his teammates making him do things he would not normally do like throw and duck to avoid a more painful hit or look toward the pressure for a split second more and not at his WR making a break so he won't have as good a feel for the rhythm of the route.  Will he do better than Daniel Jones?  Yes.  Will he do as well as a typical Mahommes season of getting sacked under 30 times per season?  No way.

Quote from: kingm56 on Today at 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

Quote from: kingm56 on Today at 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

Quote from: kingm56 on Today at 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

Let's use number of sacks as that is a better measurement.

2023 - Daniel Jones - played in 6 games, sacked 30 times, 160 pass attempts so was sacked once every 5.33 pass attempts.

2020 - Justin Herbert - played in 15 games, sacked only 32 times, 595 pass attempts so was sacked once every 18.6 pass attempts.

2021 - Tua - played in 13 games, sacked only 20 times, 388 pass attempts so was sacked once every 19.4 pass attempts.

2023 - Geno Smith - played in 15 games, sacked only 31 times, 499 pass attempts so sacked once every 16.1 pass attempts.

Kyler Murray - played in only 8 games, sacked only 18 times, 268 pass attempts so sacked once every 14.9 pass attempts.

These QBs you cite were not getting pressured at anything remotely close to what DJ endured.  Sacked every 5.33 attempts versus 14 - 19 attempts is statistically very meaningful and very different.  Your comparison is not remotely reasonable.  I am not saying DJ is a good QB or as good as the QBs you cite.   

Quote from: MightyGiants on Today at 07:56:44 AMThis is what happens when you only look at part of the issue


Here are the full rankings (there is no OC/HC rankings so admittedly we are still looking at just 2 of the three pillars)

2020 Chargers  Pass-Blocking- 30th  Receiving 12th  QBR 13th

2021 Dolphins  Pass-Blocking- 32nd  Receiving 18th  QBR 18th NOTE- lack of protection injured QB 

2023 Seahawks  Pass-Blocking- 28th  Receiving 7th  QBR 14th

2023 Cards  Pass-Blocking- 17th  Receiving 27th  QBR 22nd


This is why you should always look at the whole picture rather than select pieces.  If you want an accurate picture you need to be systematic and complete in one's examination

The OP provided the aggregate ratings of the olines, I responded in kind.