Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Bob In PA on Today at 07:56:36 AMThat type of analysis fails to consider that it is a team sport. 

The ratings of each player failure to take into account the other players with whom they play.  They can't just be added together to get a final total.

A team is like a car motor. Every part must perform (and fit with the other parts) according to specifications or the engine (team) will not run efficiently.

Bob

Bob,

As you know, I like to play with analytics myself.  Still, no matter how good a system sounds (or perhaps sounds flawed), I tend to step back and look how accurate the results look after all is said and done.

Here are the top 7 talented rosters per this author and his measures:

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Buffalo Bills
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Detroit Lions
7. Dallas Cowboys

With the possible exceptions of the Bills this seems to be a pretty reasonable ranking of roster talent (at least in my assessment)

Quote from: kingm56 on Today at 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

This is what happens when you only look at part of the issue


Here are the full rankings (there is no OC/HC rankings so admittedly we are still looking at just 2 of the three pillars)

2020 Chargers  Pass-Blocking- 30th  Receiving 12th  QBR 13th

2021 Dolphins  Pass-Blocking- 32nd  Receiving 18th  QBR 18th NOTE- lack of protection injured QB 

2023 Seahawks  Pass-Blocking- 28th  Receiving 7th  QBR 14th

2023 Cards  Pass-Blocking- 17th  Receiving 27th  QBR 22nd


This is why you should always look at the whole picture rather than select pieces.  If you want an accurate picture you need to be systematic and complete in one's examination

That type of analysis fails to consider that it is a team sport. 

The ratings of each player failure to take into account the other players with whom they play.  They can't just be added together to get a final total.

A team is like a car motor. Every part must perform (and fit with the other parts) according to specifications or the engine (team) will not run efficiently.

Bob

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Quote from: MightyGiants on April 19, 2024, 02:27:25 PMThe other thing that struck me is that Jones has never had the opportunity to work with an offensive line that was in the top half (not top third, just half) of the league.  Talk about being in an unappealing position.

... or an elite NFL WR. Bob

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 19, 2024, 03:23:47 PMI would say that the competition that Tyrod and Devito played against was a bit easier than the buzzsaw that DJ ran into in the first five games of the season.

Also in 2022, the Giants faced far fewer top 10 defences.

Quote from: zephirus on April 19, 2024, 11:11:19 AMMost Giants fans (and fans in general) have such a fundamental lack of understanding of draft positioning and value I couldn't imagine why we would care what they think. Most fans seem to think the addition of a wide receiver is transformative, and it's typically not. The rest of the fans think Daniel Jones sucks, and he mostly does, but they're in such a rush to get his successor that they're not really concerned with who that is, or what the team might have to sacrifice to get there.  Trade up for JJ McCarthy?  It only takes one team, but I would imagine most draft boards have him nowhere near the top 10 in terms of value.

lee: I couldn't pass up a rare chance to slightly disagree with you. lol

In the case of the Giants, having a WR good enough to force the defense to put two men on him (A J Brown is an example from the recent past) can be transformative, by (1) giving the QB an outside "security blanket" and deep threat; and (2) by making it dangerious for defenses to blitz excessively and spy on running QBs. 

Although I agree adding a WR generally won't change as much as fans might believe, adding a true elite NFL WR seriously boosts an offense's ability to produce points, especially when the chips are down.

Bob

It's at the Athletic but here is where he ranks the Giants:

30. New York Giants
Two teams rank worse for 2024, but I think the Giants might be in the worst shape for the future. The Giants have paid a QB, who isn't the answer, a ton of money, and they don't have a pick to draft one of the top prospects in this year's draft. They could move up to get one, but if they don't, I suppose wide receiver makes the most sense.

Here is the bio for the guy doing the ranking:

QuoteAustin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports.

Here is how he came to these rankings:

I've used my NFL Projection Model to rank each roster ahead of next week's draft. The model takes into account an array of metrics and tries to put a "value" on every player. This value is essentially how many points above average a player brings to his team in a typical NFL game. Positional value weighs heavily when calculating that total. So the best running back or linebacker in the league will not be worth as much as the best wide receiver or edge rusher. After summing up all the values, each team was ranked 1-32. Here's how the rosters stack up entering the draft.

https://theathletic.com/5421480/2024/04/18/nfl-draft-2024-roster-rankings-projections/

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https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1781293806513471749


**Edit to add:

In reading the comments following this tweet, while it's clearly not a massive sample, I would say the poll posted in another thread showing the majority of Giants fans want to simply stay put at 6 and take an elite receiver is supported.