Big Blue Huddle

https://x.com/LRiddickESPN/status/1781486312266076218

https://x.com/LRiddickESPN/status/1781486923078373833

https://x.com/LRiddickESPN/status/1781488419316576678

Quote from: Bob In PA on Today at 07:56:36 AMThat type of analysis fails to consider that it is a team sport. 

The ratings of each player failure to take into account the other players with whom they play.  They can't just be added together to get a final total.

A team is like a car motor. Every part must perform (and fit with the other parts) according to specifications or the engine (team) will not run efficiently.

Bob

Bob,

As you know, I like to play with analytics myself.  Still, no matter how good a system sounds (or perhaps sounds flawed), I tend to step back and look how accurate the results look after all is said and done.

Here are the top 7 talented rosters per this author and his measures:

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Buffalo Bills
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Detroit Lions
7. Dallas Cowboys

With the possible exceptions of the Bills this seems to be a pretty reasonable ranking of roster talent (at least in my assessment)

Quote from: kingm56 on Today at 04:17:36 AMThe implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

This is what happens when you only look at part of the issue


Here are the full rankings (there is no OC/HC rankings so admittedly we are still looking at just 2 of the three pillars)

2020 Chargers  Pass-Blocking- 30th  Receiving 12th  QBR 13th

2021 Dolphins  Pass-Blocking- 32nd  Receiving 18th  QBR 18th NOTE- lack of protection injured QB 

2023 Seahawks  Pass-Blocking- 28th  Receiving 7th  QBR 14th

2023 Cards  Pass-Blocking- 17th  Receiving 27th  QBR 22nd


This is why you should always look at the whole picture rather than select pieces.  If you want an accurate picture you need to be systematic and complete in one's examination

It's at the Athletic but here is where he ranks the Giants:

30. New York Giants
Two teams rank worse for 2024, but I think the Giants might be in the worst shape for the future. The Giants have paid a QB, who isn't the answer, a ton of money, and they don't have a pick to draft one of the top prospects in this year's draft. They could move up to get one, but if they don't, I suppose wide receiver makes the most sense.

Here is the bio for the guy doing the ranking:

QuoteAustin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports.

Here is how he came to these rankings:

I've used my NFL Projection Model to rank each roster ahead of next week's draft. The model takes into account an array of metrics and tries to put a "value" on every player. This value is essentially how many points above average a player brings to his team in a typical NFL game. Positional value weighs heavily when calculating that total. So the best running back or linebacker in the league will not be worth as much as the best wide receiver or edge rusher. After summing up all the values, each team was ranked 1-32. Here's how the rosters stack up entering the draft.

https://theathletic.com/5421480/2024/04/18/nfl-draft-2024-roster-rankings-projections/

https://x.com/mysportsupdate/status/1781425082960687548?s=12

Quote from: AYM on April 19, 2024, 04:55:40 PMSo we should expect the Giants to take Penix?

I hadn't notice he was missing from the list

https://x.com/the33rdteamfb/status/1781419712603430985?s=46&t=1vcQIN8GqF5J2oLdxEVEJQ

Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 19, 2024, 02:42:54 PMI wonder what the corresponding grades for our receiving corps are.

Here are the two rankings per PFF

Pass Blocking

2019- 16
2020- 32
2021- 31
2022- 24
2023- 32

Receiving

2019- 17
2020- 25
2021- 31
2022- 27
2023- 32

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 19, 2024, 02:33:18 PMSo we were the 30th last year? Maybe I'm not remembering right, but I had thought the claim made by some here was that the line began to suddenly play much better once Jones went down, allowing the journeyman backup and undrafted rookie third string QB to perform better than Jones did.

If it was indeed the case that Tyrod and DeVito enjoyed better O line play than Jones, how did the line still ultimately only finish 3rd from the bottom of the league?

That was the O-line's overall grade.  The PFF's pass-blocking grade was dead last with a putrid 43.4.  Being dead last has degrees, so a line can improve and still be dead last.   Then again, for your claims to make sense, one would have to believe the return of Andrew Thomas (and the subbing out of Neal) didn't improve the O-line.

Still, if one is dead set on finding fault with Jones...

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 19, 2024, 02:28:31 PMEven though Minny can give a lot more than the Giants for the Pats, Vikes, or Chargers to move down, the one thing they can't give is the 6th pick in this year's draft. A team like the Cards may have their hearts set on getting one of the big three receivers. If they love two of them roughly equally, it makes sense to trade with the Giants. I'm not saying this will happen, but it's one way it could.

Jeff,

I haven't heard much about it lately, but there has been talk that the punishment for Atlanta tampering (having the medical people talk to him before it was allowed) Cousins could be swapping the Falcons' and the Vikings' first-round picks.  That would put the Vikings in an even better position should that happen.

The other thing that struck me is that Jones has never had the opportunity to work with an offensive line that was in the top half (not top third, just half) of the league.  Talk about being in an unappealing position.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on April 19, 2024, 02:14:04 PMIf we draft a Wr how is that wr going to transform our offense?

If Slayton and Hyatt got under utilized, why wouldn't this new Wr?

The weapons do not matter if you don't have someone to get them the ball. Whether that's Lock or Jones, any skill that comes in will be under served until the Qb changes.

Slayton caught 50 balls as a #1
Hyatt caught 23
Robinson caught 60

I just don't see any skill producing like people would want them to until someone is brought in to throw down the field.

Jess,

I suggest reading the thread on the 3 Ps of quarterback support.   Right now, the only pillar we know the Giants' quarterback has is average to maybe above-average coaching.   The O-line was historically bad last year, and among last year's pass catchers, there were none that were keeping DCs up at night.

In addition, when a team adds a true number one WR, they boost all three positions.  Defenses will put their best CB on the new number one WR and may even roll coverage that way.   That means guys like Hyatt and Robinson will be single-covered with less talented CBs.   So, adding one elite WR boosts the entire receiving corps.

Quote from: londonblue on April 19, 2024, 12:12:59 PMI thought that as well but their beat guys (including Allbright who is wired in with them) all think Sean Payton is in deep man love with JJ McCarthy. Smoke season of course.

I saw Eric from BBI make that claim.  Only when I went to the Youtube video he linked, the guy saying the Broncos are hot to move up is Tony Pauline.  When I listened to Albright, he seemed far less sure the Broncos are trying to move up.


According to NFL Insider Tony Pauline, the Denver Broncos are desperate to trade up for a QB and may trade a king's ransom including CB Patrick Surtain to the Arizona Cardinals for pick #4? Is Monti Ossenfort waging a bidding war for the draft's top QBs? Will the Cards still manage to select Marvin Harrison Jr.? Will Arizona sports fans be happy with Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers in a trade with the New York Giants or Minnesota Vikings?

Join Johnny Venerable and Bo Brack on Thursday's PHNX Cardinals podcast!

0:00 Intro
1:50 Sean Payton wants new QB
4:10 NFL Insider Benjamin Allbright joins the show!
13:20 Quarterback tiers
18:40 Allbright final mock draft
35:50 Monti Ossenfort speaks at pre-Draft presser
52:45 Trade calls expect to ramp up next week

https://x.com/art_stapleton/status/1781371793753727263