Big Blue Huddle

It's at the Athletic but here is where he ranks the Giants:

30. New York Giants
Two teams rank worse for 2024, but I think the Giants might be in the worst shape for the future. The Giants have paid a QB, who isn't the answer, a ton of money, and they don't have a pick to draft one of the top prospects in this year's draft. They could move up to get one, but if they don't, I suppose wide receiver makes the most sense.

Here is the bio for the guy doing the ranking:

QuoteAustin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports.

Here is how he came to these rankings:

I've used my NFL Projection Model to rank each roster ahead of next week's draft. The model takes into account an array of metrics and tries to put a "value" on every player. This value is essentially how many points above average a player brings to his team in a typical NFL game. Positional value weighs heavily when calculating that total. So the best running back or linebacker in the league will not be worth as much as the best wide receiver or edge rusher. After summing up all the values, each team was ranked 1-32. Here's how the rosters stack up entering the draft.

https://theathletic.com/5421480/2024/04/18/nfl-draft-2024-roster-rankings-projections/

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https://twitter.com/JordanRaanan/status/1781293806513471749


**Edit to add:

In reading the comments following this tweet, while it's clearly not a massive sample, I would say the poll posted in another thread showing the majority of Giants fans want to simply stay put at 6 and take an elite receiver is supported.

How exactly was that question presented and who did they poll? I don't know how you watch the same team we did last year and think WR is the most pressing need.

Can Nabers (or Odunze) also throw to himself? Or block for the quarterback before running his route? If so, then hell yeah I want that guy at #6. Otherwise, I'll pass.

I had a tough time getting this one off the ground today for whatever reason.

Strands #48
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Quote from: Philosophers on April 19, 2024, 06:40:08 PMWould Patrick be Patrick behind that OL?  No way.

Yes he would! He would be the same Patrick during SB against TB, when he was hitting WR/TE 30 yards downfield from a horizontal position, playing behind an atrocious oline.  Was there any doubt he was the best player on the field that evening?  You simply can't hide that type of talent! The same was true for Joe Burrow, playing behind an Oline that allowed an NFL high 19-sacks during their playoff run. You can throw-in Herberts record-breaking rookie season behind the NFL #32 ranked oline.  I could go on-and-on about QBs who still produced playing behind terrible lines in the modern era.  To be clear, I freely admit the W/L will be impacted; however, a QB can still produce and showcase unique abilities playing behind below-avg OLs.  To date, DJ has done neither... 

The implicit notion of this thread suggest a QB is powerless to produce tangible passing metrics without an average, to above average Oline.  To test this theory, let's review the olines worse than our Giants:

 - 2020 ranked 31st
  --LAC #32 Herbert 4336 YDs 31 TDs 10 INTs 67% 98.3 RTG *Won ROY *Mult Rookie passing records
- 2021 ranked 30th
  --MIA #32 Tua 3758 YDs 16 TDs 10 INTs 68% 90.1 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 12 games)
- 2023 ranked 30th
  --SEA #31 Smith 3624 YDs 20 TDs 9 INTs 65% 92.1 RTG (Only Played 15 games) *Selected to Pro Bowl
  --ARZ #32 Murray 3822 YDs 21 TDs 7 INTs 66% 89.4 RTG (Based on 17 game projection; only started 8 games) *came back from more than 10 month injury.

From this data, we can glean that successful QBs can still produce, regardless of inferior lines.  So, what does this tell us about DJ?  Nothing! We already know DJ does not possess the organic attributes of a superior passer; he never has, and never will.  Will his performance improve with a better OLine...absolutely! However, even when provided with average lines, with a superior RB, he still produced a bottom 5 passing offense. He clearly doesn't have the qualities to lead a top-tier passing offence, which is critical to winning SBs in the modern era.  We need to move on; I suspect the Giants feel the same. 

I think my preference would be to sit and pick.If its not for QB & Giants the 3 WR's close together we take one of the two left (Odunze please!).

In terms of a trade out, I would target a position with thin depth in the draft AND that rates highly in a cluster. Drop back into the teens and that's TE, CB & DT more so than WR. Brian would obviously
love if if we took Bowers    DT Johnny Newton is one of my "my guys" and fits the scheme perfectly. Not as big a fan of Byron Murphy II but could see an attraction. They're way above DT3 this year. Which CB fits us best?

OL is the deepest position in the draft so unless a grade is ridiculously high compared to the rest of the cluster we like, we pass on that.