Big Blue Huddle

General Category => NFL Draft, NY Giants style => Topic started by: MP21WAYS2PAY on March 15, 2017, 08:45:28 AM

Title: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: MP21WAYS2PAY on March 15, 2017, 08:45:28 AM
With the signing of TE Rhett Ellison & WR Brandon Marshall, is a 1st round TE off the table?   

If our standard package is going to be 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB, it is hard to find more than 40%of the snaps playing time for another TE. Between the number of targets to spread around, and spliting playing time with a blocking TE or WR3, and some promise shown by Jerrel Adams as a recieving TE, it is difficult to see the value. 

Personally I think Engram/Howard/Njoku would be great additions, but I have a hard time believing this front office sees that as a need now.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: MightyGiants on March 15, 2017, 09:07:59 AM
I wouldn't hesitate to draft Howard or Njoku with the first pick in the draft.  I would love the Giants trio of TEs to be Ellison Howard/Njoku and Adams (never was a Will Tye fan).    That would allow the Giants to start mixing it up and running some 12 personnel sets which should help the rushing attack.

I don't think that it would be worth drafting Engram as he is, in my opinion, a tier lower.


That said, if the a starting LT is still available to draft or a really good edge rusher, it would be a very difficult decision. 
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: UKGiantsFan on March 15, 2017, 09:14:20 AM
I think that first round may be off the table but it's far from off the table on the second day (rounds 2 & 3).

Here's why:

- Rhett Ellison gives us flexibility and blocking.
- He'll undoubtedly catch some balls but he isn't going to be on the field every down or even play every down at TE when he is on the field.
- He'll play FB plenty, perhaps even as much as he plays TE because it allows us to diversify the offense and get away from the proclivity of '11' personnel and signposting play calls.
- Ellison has only caught 51 career passes. We're not talking about a guy who suddenly became the answer to the issues at TE in the passing game just because he changed teams.
- The ONLY guy who should be on the field every down apart from Eli and the OL's is OBJ.
- Adding a down the field weapon in the seam  at TE creates mismatches and will give the WR's more room to operate on crossing routes underneath as well as hold the Safety that split second longer.
- That also means that opponents can't sit in cover two as they did last year knowing neither Tye or Donnell offered much deep.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on March 15, 2017, 09:15:34 AM
I would certainly think that a TE is still on the table in the 1st round (assuming the top studs were still there). Last year we had DRC and spent a fortune on Jackrabbit and had two very solid CBs. And then we drafted a top CB in round 1. That should be all you have to know about how the FO thinks. They are going to take the top player on their board period. If it happens to be a TE, they'll grab him. If they have a DT or DE or CB ranked highest - that's where they will go.

I have a gut feeling that the Giants are looking at a stud player in the first and it doesn't necessarily mean it's a TE (just my opinion), but they could be looking at picking up a Bucky Hodges or Jake Butt on day two. Time will tell of course. Regardless - I have to think the Giants will go with their own board rankings and take the guy at the top of their board.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: MightyGiants on March 15, 2017, 09:25:12 AM
I would also add that the team has an aging Brandon Marshall on only a 2 year contract.  So the Giants could use a nice tall receiving threat longer term, which drafting a good TE would bring.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Ed Vette on March 15, 2017, 09:26:28 AM
In my opinion, you have to look at what Jerry Reese and his Team believe after years of working the Draft feel is a position worthy of a first round Pick. Of course the Giants are not in second round territory but they are in the bottom third of the selection. They have shown that OL, Receiver, DL and DB are worthy of first round selection. QB may also be included because of Eli's age and fall from effectiveness off the previous season. Perhaps they will look at the grades of the players available at those positions and if they are weak look down and see that their second round choice may not be there because of a run on a position.

For a TE or RB to be picked in the first round I think the player would have to be very special.

Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on March 15, 2017, 09:33:20 AM
I think that the only time the Giants burn a first on a "need" position, is when there is a tie between a couple or more players on the top of their board and since it's a toss up, they go with the need pick. Otherwise, they'll stick to the numerical rating they have on players. Reese is damn good the first two days. Maybe he was a little off when he grabbed Bromely on day two, but other than that, he usually hits good players. And maybe Bromley starts to show he's starter material this year. Who knows what he's done during the off season.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Ed Vette on March 15, 2017, 09:41:12 AM
Does anyone here know for sure what is factored into the grade system the Giants use to grade a player?
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on March 15, 2017, 09:46:48 AM
Quote from: Vette on March 15, 2017, 09:41:12 AM
Does anyone here know for sure what is factored into the grade system the Giants use to grade a player?

I would imagine that's a top secret among the insiders. I'm sure there's a bunch of scouts and executives sitting around a conference table with multiple TV screens and I-Pads as they go over every detail of a player. How they rank them is anybody's guess. I think they had Collins rated very high when they traded up to get him. I suspect they had Flowers and Collins rated about the same and took Flowers because it was a big need. When Collins was still on the board the next day, they pulled the trigger and what a great move it was. I can't imagine them trading up unless they had a shot at a player who was ranked way higher than any player on the board and knew he'd never be there when their turn came back around.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Philosophers on March 15, 2017, 10:21:14 AM
I like Jake Butt a lot more as an option for the Giants now that they have Ellison to improve the blocking from a TE position.  He is a pass catching TE.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: MightyGiants on March 15, 2017, 10:29:41 AM
While the particulars may vary when it comes to valuing positions in the draft I would think team use to factors.   One is this, the salary cap number by position:

Quarterback: $21.395MM
Defensive end: $16.955MM
Wide receiver: $15.826MM
Running back: $12.377MM
Linebacker: $14.754MM
Offensive line: $14.444MM
Cornerback: $14.297MM
Defensive tackle: $13.468MM
Safety: $10.961MM
Tight end: $9.894MM
Punter/kicker: $4.863MM

Just note those are all offensive line positions.  No doubt if LT was factored out it would be the second highest salary position on the team.

I would think the higher the average salary the more value the player has in terms of drafting them in the first round. 

While that would suggest tight ends are not all that valuable, I would suggest that it might be a bit of an anomaly as tag numbers are calculated from the top 5 salaries at the position and frankly I don't see 5 elite TEs in the league (the draft has been weak at the TE position for quite some time now).   

In terms of offensive linemen I think the order in terms of salary is broken down:

LT > G > RT > C

The second factor would be how difficult is it to obtain a player at that position.    Teams almost never let a franchise QB or a quality LT hit the open market, so I think that pushes up the draft value of those two positions (along with their salaries).
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: todge on March 15, 2017, 12:32:51 PM
Quote from: Vette on March 15, 2017, 09:41:12 AM
Does anyone here know for sure what is factored into the grade system the Giants use to grade a player?

The late GM Jr. publication once included a typical scouting sheet used by most.  I tried but couldn't access it. Perhaps Rich has access to something?
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Shoelessjoe on March 15, 2017, 05:35:01 PM
Quote from: Philosophers on March 15, 2017, 10:21:14 AM
I like Jake Butt a lot more as an option for the Giants now that they have Ellison to improve the blocking from a TE position.  He is a pass catching TE.

Phil, do you know the status Jake Butt's injury?
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Jaime on March 15, 2017, 06:40:17 PM
As of this moment?
In order of best Player avail;
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Philosophers on March 15, 2017, 08:14:15 PM
Shoeless - Butt tore his ACL in the bowl game.  It was his second ACL tear and surgery but it was to the other leg.  He had surgery the first week of January and noted that it went really well and he was already doing rehab by 2nd week of January.  He previously tore his other ACL in February 2014, had surgery and was back on the field playing in October 2014 so it appears he really works hard to rehab and gets back pretty quickly.  All good news.

I like the kid a lot.  He's big with great hands, very disciplined and works very hard.  What I don't love is that his blocking is average as he plays "high" and less in a low anchored position and he does not have explosive speed/athleticism, however he gets downfield all the time due to good route running and going up to snatch the ball in the air so he is not a liability running downfield routes. 
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Hadron on March 15, 2017, 09:49:31 PM
I think the Giants go D-Lineman in the first round. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab two d-linemen in the first three rounds.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: MightyGiants on March 16, 2017, 07:09:42 AM
Quote from: Hadron on March 15, 2017, 09:49:31 PM
I think the Giants go D-Lineman in the first round. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab two d-linemen in the first three rounds.

I am not seeing Hankins replacement falling to the Giants at 23.  In fact I have yet to see a DT that is at all exciting. 
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Philosophers on March 16, 2017, 09:58:23 AM
They better address O Linemen and not D Linemen in the first three rounds if they want to be a better team in 2017.  I don't care if it's via FA, the draft or trades, but that is the hole and it is pretty damn clear. 
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: MP21WAYS2PAY on March 16, 2017, 11:04:41 AM
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 16, 2017, 07:09:42 AM
I am not seeing Hankins replacement falling to the Giants at 23.  In fact I have yet to see a DT that is at all exciting.

Montravious Adams is interesting in Round 2.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Hadron on March 16, 2017, 03:32:01 PM
Quote from: MightyGiants on March 16, 2017, 07:09:42 AM
I am not seeing Hankins replacement falling to the Giants at 23.  In fact I have yet to see a DT that is at all exciting.

D lineman could be a DE as well in preparation of JPP being gone if a long term contract is unobtainable. I'm not saying I agree with the idea.

Keep in mind that this is the same organization that drafted Wilson/Randle when they had no olinemen left after the sb46 run.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: MightyGiants on March 16, 2017, 03:35:56 PM
Quote from: MP21WAYS2PAY on March 16, 2017, 11:04:41 AM
Montravious Adams is interesting in Round 2.

I see him more of a round 3 or 4 type pick
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: jerseyguy on March 16, 2017, 04:14:40 PM
Quote from: Philosophers on March 16, 2017, 09:58:23 AM
They better address O Linemen and not D Linemen in the first three rounds if they want to be a better team in 2017.  I don't care if it's via FA, the draft or trades, but that is the hole and it is pretty damn clear.
I don't know how anyone could see it any other way.....
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on March 16, 2017, 05:09:13 PM
Quote from: jerseyguy on March 16, 2017, 04:14:40 PM
I don't know how anyone could see it any other way.....

One way it could be seen is if the Giants tire of the cat and mouse game and cut loose Hankins and JPP. Then the defensive line becomes vitally important to restock with players who can play soon. Even if we end up signing both, I wouldn't be a bit surprised we'd pick up a d-lineman at some point in the first 3 rounds.

I'm sure the Giants will address the O-line in the first three rounds, but I wouldn't get my hopes up that the player drafted will be playing a whole lot in the first year or two. At best, they get some playing time throughout the season to get a taste of the NFL. I don't think there are game changing linemen in this draft that will beat out Jerry or even Fluker. We definitely need to be grooming some players for depth and the future, but I don't think we are going to be able to upgrade the line to the top of the heap with this draft. Conklin and Tunsil were game changers and what I wouldn't do to find another Conklin in this year's draft. But the draft is a crap shoot and even more so with offensive linemen. Maybe we'll strike gold this year and hit big on a lineman who can automatically give the line a big bump in protecting Eli as well as blowing open holes for our ground game.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: jerseyguy on March 16, 2017, 05:16:59 PM
Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on March 16, 2017, 05:09:13 PM
One way it could be seen is if the Giants tire of the cat and mouse game and cut loose Hankins and JPP. Then the defensive line becomes vitally important to restock with players who can play soon. Even if we end up signing both, I wouldn't be a bit surprised we'd pick up a d-lineman at some point in the first 3 rounds.

I'm sure the Giants will address the O-line in the first three rounds, but I wouldn't get my hopes up that the player drafted will be playing a whole lot in the first year or two. At best, they get some playing time throughout the season to get a taste of the NFL. I don't think there are game changing linemen in this draft that will beat out Jerry or even Fluker. We definitely need to be grooming some players for depth and the future, but I don't think we are going to be able to upgrade the line to the top of the heap with this draft. Conklin and Tunsil were game changers and what I wouldn't do to find another Conklin in this year's draft. But the draft is a crap shoot and even more so with offensive linemen. Maybe we'll strike gold this year and hit big on a lineman who can automatically give the line a big bump in protecting Eli as well as blowing open holes for our ground game.

maybe all we need to do is to draft the people who draft for the Patriots  :)
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on March 16, 2017, 05:35:15 PM
Quote from: jerseyguy on March 16, 2017, 05:16:59 PM
maybe all we need to do is to draft the people who draft for the Patriots  :)

From all I can tell (for what it's worth), it's all about Belichick and his football mind developing strategies to beat other teams. He studies all the competition and designs plans that will give him the tools to exploit the "enemy". So instead of looking for chess pieces that are rated high according to analysts and fans, he looks for a specific kind of player for the coming season's grand plan. And every year it's different. He simply understands how to exploit other teams and build a team with specific kinds of players who fit his secret strategy buried deep in the back of his head. He's super competitive and it's like he's playing 3D chess while the rest of us are studying a 2D chess board wondering how to put the highest rated player in each spot. Or maybe a better analogy is we play checkers while he's playing chess.

Bottom line: I don't think it's possible to figure out BB's drafting strategy or any part of his strategy to win that next Super Bowl. It gave me great pleasure to see him refuse to show the class to shake hands with TC and sulk off the field in his hoodie the first time a Coughlin led team beat his ass  :P
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Painter on March 16, 2017, 09:45:02 PM
The addition of a big 6'4/ 230lb, topnotch "go across the middle", and red zone/ end zone receiver in Brandon Marshall and a very solid blocker and outlet receiving FB/HBack in Rhett Ellison strikes me as a predetermined plan which  diminishes the likelihood that the Giants will draft a TE in Round 1.

If he is there at 23, I don't see them passing on Ramczyk to play OLT. He won't be. He reminds me of Nate Solder, who was on the Giants radar back in 2011. But the Pats jumped up two slots ahead and grabbed him. He's been a fixture for them ever since. The Giants took the Prince at 19 and, of course, he's no longer with them. Indeed, none of the Giants picks in 2011 are still with the team. And yet, against all odds and with David Diehl at OLT, the Giants swept through the playoffs and beat The Pats and Solder for their second Lombardi in 4 years. There are a lot of reasons why I avoid predictions, and that's one of them.

If not a TE, and I think not, and if not  Ramczyk (or Bolles?), I wouldn't be surprised if they took a RB, Cook or Fournette if either was available. Probably won't be.  Otherwise, it would seem likely that they will go for the other side. They might shock us by drafting a MLB. Wowee! A LB in Round 1? If so, it would be Zach Cunningham, no doubt.

Still, it's hard to talk about surprises when no one gets this stuff right at anytime. When it comes to matching players to teams, no one in the world gets it more than 25% right. And as most of the correct guesses occur in the first 10 picks;  we aren't likely to do any better than we did last year with Eli Apple or with Flowers, the year before, or with OBJ in '14 or Pugh in'13. 

Whomever it is, and however it turns out overall, please let us not have a repeat of the 2011 Draft; that is unless it means we get  to beat the Pats in the Super Bowl again.

Cheers!
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on March 16, 2017, 09:58:49 PM
I have to brag about last year's prognostication. I picked Apple as the Giants' pick a couple of weeks before the draft. I was skewered on another board and ridiculed beyond belief. I believe I am the only person on any board that thought the Giants were going to take Apple.

What I can't brag about, is that is about the ONLY pick in round one that I got right. I wanted Jack Conklin, but surmised he would be off the board and I was right, so there's that.

This year I don't have a gut feel for where the Giants will go with their first pick. I will throw my guess out there in the weeks leading up to the draft.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: todge on March 16, 2017, 10:00:40 PM
Quote from: jerseyguy on March 16, 2017, 05:16:59 PM
maybe all we need to do is to draft the people who draft for the Patriots  :)

If you log onto Draft history.com - you will see that the Pats have been no better and perhaps arguably worse than the Giants when it comes to the Draft.


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Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on March 16, 2017, 10:02:09 PM
As an addendum to my previous post (boast)...one guess that I can throw out there is that I believe when the dust settles on day 2 of the draft, Jake Butt will be a Giant. Just a gut feeling. If right, we won't be taking a TE in the first round.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Jaime on March 16, 2017, 10:33:29 PM
G.B.G., congrats on Apple. I had him on my radar, but I just didn't pull the trigger.
As for Butt, his knee gives me reason to pause. :suspious:
How bout some Tex-Mex? I'll have a Taco thank you.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: MP21WAYS2PAY on March 17, 2017, 06:06:42 AM
Quote from: Jaime on March 16, 2017, 10:33:29 PM
G.B.G., congrats on Apple. I had him on my radar, but I just didn't pull the trigger.
As for Butt, his knee gives me reason to pause. :suspious:
How bout some Tex-Mex? I'll have a Taco thank you.

I think Jake Butt has torn ACLs in both knees.  Yikes!  Might need a fact check there.  Its definitely looking like defense is more likely, Im thinking Jordan Willis or Hasaan Reddick, or after the visit, Cunningham.  Taco seems to lack athleticism for a 4-3 DE.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: TONKA56 on March 17, 2017, 08:14:54 AM
No mention of Adam Shaheen in round 2 or 3?

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Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Ed Vette on March 17, 2017, 08:58:43 AM
Quote from: Painter on March 16, 2017, 09:45:02 PM
The addition of a big 6'4/ 230lb, topnotch "go across the middle", and red zone/ end zone receiver in Brandon Marshall and a very solid blocker and outlet receiving FB/HBack in Rhett Ellison strikes me as a predetermined plan which diminishes the likelihood that the Giants will draft a TE in Round 1.
Cheers!

That's how I see it too.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Jolly Blue Giant on March 17, 2017, 09:07:35 AM
Quote from: MP21WAYS2PAY on March 17, 2017, 06:06:42 AM
I think Jake Butt has torn ACLs in both knees.  Yikes!  Might need a fact check there.  Its definitely looking like defense is more likely, Im thinking Jordan Willis or Hasaan Reddick, or after the visit, Cunningham.  Taco seems to lack athleticism for a 4-3 DE.

Depending on who your read, his knees are or are not and issue. The Giants brought him in (as well as Bucky Hodges). I just have this gut feeling that the Giants will take him in the 3rd round. Doesn't mean anything, just this premonition that sticks in the back of my head and won't go away.

Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: MightyGiants on March 17, 2017, 09:28:56 AM
This is just me, but I would never draft a player with two torn ACLs.  You have to think his body is prone to that type of injury, plus you have to think that 2 such injuries has at least robbed him of some of the  athletasism that made him special.

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Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Philosophers on March 17, 2017, 10:34:12 AM
Keep in mind with Butt that he won the Mackey Award as the nation's best TE after one of those ACL injuries plus he was twice the Big 10 TE of the year.  His first ACL was in 2014.  His second was in the most recent bowl game which he chose to play in rather than sit out like Fournette did. 

I don't believe he is more susceptible to an ACL injury than another player.  You get hit a certain way and any player will tear it.  That said, I do agree with you that all things being equal, I prefer players who have not sustained major injuries.  Keep in mind that the rehab time for ACL injuries continues to get reduced as technology improves.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: todge on March 17, 2017, 12:15:10 PM
I am not so sure the Giants were ever in the mix for a first Round TE.  Unless of course, Howard somehow miraculously fell to them.  The Giants know full well that his Draft is loaded with TEs - so they could go into the 3rd Round and find an instant starter.   I don't think the signing of Marshall or Ellison has anything to do with them drafting a TE.  Tight End is a different position than Wide Receiver.  Ellison was signed to be a blocker.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Painter on March 17, 2017, 03:25:23 PM
It used to be a different position but it is becoming much less so.  A bigger receiver, sure, slot, split, flexed, but hardly tight anymore. Eli needed a big red zone/ end zone pass catcher whether from a WR or TE.  They got it for him when the signed Marshall as fast as they could.

Cheers!
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: MP21WAYS2PAY on March 17, 2017, 03:31:31 PM
Looks like DE is off the table....whats left?
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Ed Vette on March 17, 2017, 03:39:29 PM
Quote from: MP21WAYS2PAY on March 17, 2017, 03:31:31 PM
Looks like DE is off the table....whats left?

Best Player Available. There are no guarantees in life and in football. I can see them picking a OT, DB, WR...but DT would make the most sense if the player was a starting caliber 3T.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: ViewFromSection129 on March 17, 2017, 03:46:49 PM
Quote from: Vette on March 17, 2017, 03:39:29 PM
Best Player Available. There are no guarantees in life and in football. I can see them picking a OT, DB, WR...but DT would make the most sense if the player was a starting caliber 3T.

  Agreed.  Because there are no major holes in the roster now except for DT, I can see them going anywhere in Round 1.  That is why filling major holes in free agency is so important... it allows us to draft for value and not need.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: coggs on March 17, 2017, 04:09:58 PM
I don't think it is off the table.  They still need a TE who will be a real threat in the passing game.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: jerseyguy on March 17, 2017, 04:26:18 PM
I know the talent is not what we would like to see in round 1 but we cannot forget the need on the O line at OT, if we don't fix the poor blocking we are set to play at the same level as last season, disastrous..
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: Hadron on March 17, 2017, 05:55:09 PM
Reaching for need is not the best approach.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: AZGiantFan on March 17, 2017, 07:00:19 PM
Quote from: jerseyguy on March 17, 2017, 04:26:18 PM
I know the talent is not what we would like to see in round 1 but we cannot forget the need on the O line at OT, if we don't fix the poor blocking we are set to play at the same level as last season, disastrous..

I think I am with you if either of the top 2 OTs is there at 23.  If not, BPA without excluding any positions.
Title: Re: Is a 1st Round TE off the table?
Post by: todge on March 17, 2017, 11:29:19 PM
Quote from: Hadron on March 17, 2017, 05:55:09 PM
Reaching for need is not the best approach.

That may have been true years ago. But the new CBA changed all that. Teams can no longer stockpile talent at one position because they will be gone several years later.

So although you are right ... teams have to draft for need and that does lead to problems.


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