Big Blue Huddle

The short answer is quickly, or never. 

A few years ago, I ran a statistical analysis of every skilled position; my intent was to determine when you could expect a player, at a given position, to emerge.  My thesis was the notion it takes 3-to-5 years to judge a player is outdated and inaccurate.  During that effort, I realized WRs, more than any other skilled position, emerge quickly and have a fairly predictable output..  The data suggest Nabers will adapt quickly, or not at all.  Below is list of all the 1st rd WR(s) drafted between 2016 and 2021; as I'm sure you'll note, they produce quickly and remain statistically consistent, unless impacted by injuries and/or suspension. In lieu of a boring analysis, here are two general observations.

1.   The preponderance of 1st Round WRs show their abilities in their rookie seasons
2.   100% of 1st Round WRs showcase their abilities by year 2, or not at all.
a.   At this point, they're production is fairly steady 

Ja'Marr Chase (Pick 5):   
2021*   CIN   17   81   1455   18   13   AP ORoY-1, AP2, PB
2022*   CIN   12   87   1046   12   9   PB
2023*   CIN   16   100   1216   12.2   7   PB
                     
Jaylen Waddle (Pick 6):                     
2021   MIA   16   104   1015   9.8   6   
2022   MIA   17   75   1356   18.1   8   
2023   MIA   14   72   1014   14.1   4   
                     
DeVonta Smith (Pick 10):                  
2021   PHI   17   64   916   14.3   5   
2022   PHI   17   95   1196   12.6   7   
2023   PHI   16   81   1066   13.2   7   
                  
Kadarius Toney (Pick 20):            
2021   NYG   10   39   420   10.8   0   
2022   2TM   9   16   171   10.7   2   
   KAN   7   14   171   12.2   2   
   NYG   2   2   0   0   0   
2023   KAN   13   27   169   6.3   1   
                     
                     
Rashod Bateman  (Pick 27):                     
21   BAL   12   46   515   11.2   1   
2022   BAL   6   15   285   19   2   
2023   BAL   16   32   367   11.5   1   
                     
                     
Henry Ruggs (Pick 12):                  
20   LVR   13   26   452   17.4   2   
2021   LVR   7   24   469   19.5   2   
                     
Jerry Jeudy: (Pick 15)                     
20   DEN   16   52   856   16.5   3   
2021   DEN   10   38   467   12.3   0   
2022   DEN   15   67   972   14.5   6   
2023   DEN   16   54   758   14   2   
                     
CeeDee Lamb (Pick 17):                     
2020   DAL   16   74   935   12.6   5   
2021*   DAL   16   79   1102   13.9   6   PB
2022*   DAL   17   107   1359   12.7   9   AP2, PB
2023*+   DAL   17   135   1749   13   12   
                     
Jalen Reagor (Pick 21):               
2020   PHI   11   31   396   12.8   1   
2021   PHI   17   33   299   9.1   2   
2022   MIN   17   8   104   13   1   
2023   NWE   11   7   138   19.7   0   
                     
Justin Jefferson (Pick 22):               
2020*   MIN   16   88   1400   15.9   7   AP ORoY-2, AP2, PB
2021*   MIN   17   108   1616   15   10   AP2, PB
2022*+   MIN   17   128   1809   14.1   8   AP MVP-5, AP OPoY-1, AP1, PB
2023   MIN   10   68   1074   15.8   5   
                     
Brandon Aiyuk (Pick 25):                     
2020   SFO   12   60   748   12.5   5   
2021   SFO   17   56   826   14.8   5   
2022   SFO   17   78   1015   13   8   
2023   SFO   16   75   1342   17.9   7   
                     
Marquise Brown (Pick 25):      
2019   BAL   14   46   584   12.7   7   
2020   BAL   16   58   769   13.3   8   
2021   BAL   16   91   1008   11.1   6   
2022   ARI   12   67   709   10.6   3   
2023   ARI   14   51   574   11.3   4   
                     
N'Keal Harry (Pick 32):   
2019   NWE   7   12   105   8.8   2   
2020   NWE   14   33   309   9.4   2   
2021   NWE   12   12   184   15.3   0   
2022   CHI   7   7   116   16.6   1   
2023   MIN   9            0   
                     
D.J. Moore (Pick 24):
2018   CAR   16   55   788   14.3   2   
2019   CAR   15   87   1175   13.5   4   
2020   CAR   15   66   1193   18.1   4   
2021   CAR   17   93   1157   12.4   4   
2022   CAR   17   63   888   14.1   7   
2023   CHI   17   96   1364   14.2   8   
                     
Calvin Ridley (Pick 26):                  
2018   ATL   16   64   821   12.8   10   
2019   ATL   13   63   866   13.7   7   
2020   ATL   15   90   1374   15.3   9   AP2
2021   ATL   5   31   281   9.1   2   
2023   JAX   17   76   1016   13.4   8   
                     
Corey Davis (Pick 5):                  
2017   TEN   11   34   375   11   0   
2018   TEN   16   65   891   13.7   4   
2019   TEN   15   43   601   14   2   
2020   TEN   14   65   984   15.1   5   
2021   NYJ   9   34   492   14.5   4   
2022   NYJ   13   32   536   16.8   2   
                     
John Ross (Pick 9):                  
2017   CIN   3   0   0      0   
2018   CIN   13   21   210   10   7   
2019   CIN   8   28   506   18.1   3   
2020   CIN   3   2   17   8.5   0   
2021   NYG   10   11   224   20.4   1   
                     
Corey Coleman (Pick 15):                  
2016   CLE   10   33   413   12.5   3   
2017   CLE   9   23   305   13.3   2   
2018   NYG   8   5   71   14.2   0   
                     
Will Fuller (Pick 21):                  
2016   HOU   14   47   635   13.5   2   
2017   HOU   10   28   423   15.1   7   
2018   HOU   7   32   503   15.7   4   
2019   HOU   11   49   670   13.7   3   
2020   HOU   11   53   879   16.6   8   
2021   MIA   2   4   26   6.5   0   
                     
Josh Doctson (Pick 22):                  
2016   WAS   2   2   66   33   0   
2017   WAS   16   35   502   14.3   6   
2018   WAS   15   44   532   12.1   2   
2019   MIN   1            0   
                     
Laquon Treadwell (Pick 23):                  
2016   MIN   9   1   15   15   0   
2017   MIN   16   20   200   10   0   
2018   MIN   15   35   302   8.6   1   
2019   MIN   13   9   184   20.4   1   
2020   ATL   5   6   49   8.2   2   
2021   JAX   12   33   434   13.2   1   
2022   SEA   6   6   42   7   0   
2023   BAL   5   1   16   16   0

Quote from: Bob In PA on Today at 08:01:04 AMTonka: Completely agree, but this year IMO they have the answer. Both Robinson and Nabers can contribute in the run-game, and Singletary is a proven NFL-caliber RB. Gray will no longer be a rookie and maybe he's ready to contribute. I think to address your point directly, this year the pass-attack will open it up for the run-game. Daboll/Kafka are not traditional coaches... they prefer the "newfangled" pass-first offenses, and whether we like it or not there will be very little (if any) "Giants' football" on offense and a lot more open attack. Bob

I think you'll see a team that is capable of generating more big plays but struggles mightily to convert short yardage and to run out the clock.

I liked other OTs rather than JC Latham.  Harbaugh was brilliant to select Alt.  Titans should have looked elsewhere.  Not a fan of that pick.

Atlanta selecting Penix was ridiculous after securing Cousins.  Complete waste of a pick.

I think Dallas trading back did nothing for them.  Yeah they got Guyton, but they needed help at CB also and going back put them in a less advantageous position.

KC landing Xavier Worthy was brilliant.

Quote from: Philosophers on Today at 09:30:27 AMA breakaway, pass catching RB would be a nice piece to add to this offense which lost one nice piece in Barkley and needs a healthy replacement.  Eric Gray is not the answer.

I want a guy that can get tough yards between the tackles.

Maybe a bit, but I don't think that's the point. DJ is here for one more year, the new WR is a long term piece of the puzzle.

This move was not some endorsement of Jones, it was making the best of the situation. I doubt Jones is starting at the end of the year

Quote from: MightyGiants on Today at 09:15:49 AMTim,

Did you expect Jones to be somewhere other than at the bottom of the list for deep throws when he had historically bad protection and poor receivers?   That is why I answered a question with a question.  The subtext of your question is that Jones should be held responsible for the historically bad support he received last season.

That's what you're reading into it, Rich.

What is Jones responsible for? Aren't his stats attributable to him and not his offensive line?

Quote from: TDToomer on Today at 09:26:54 AMI definitely want to see a RB drafted today. If not no lower than the 4th round.

A breakaway, pass catching RB would be a nice piece to add to this offense which lost one nice piece in Barkley and needs a healthy replacement.  Eric Gray is not the answer.

I see a lot of frustration in this post.  Waking up this morning, I realize that BPA is a great approach as a team needs both top end talent and a lot of depth.  Giants addressed the former in spades with Nabers.  Now, let's hope they continue to stockpile more top end talent.

I definitely want to see a RB drafted today. If not no lower than the 4th round.

I am definitely excited. personally i think odunze was the better pick (dude's work ethic and charachter is absolutely top tier). something about nabers rubs me the wrong way a little, but i'm sure we will all grow to love him.

Although yes we need to address the qb situation, i am very happy we did not sell the house to get one. History shows at least half of those 6 first round qb's will fail.

For the way it went down, its a solid A pick for me.