My takeaways from episode one of Hard Knocks

[MightyGiants]

One of the most talked about scenes was the one with Schoen and his top lieutenants sinking in the office discussing Barkley.   Tim McDonnell's comment about "what the offense's identity without Barkley" will be is being discussed, but not in the manner I perceive it.   I saw Mara's nephew's comment to show he is woefully out of touch with today's NFL and, frankly, his team.   Analytics and even most coaches/GMs will tell you that you can't build an offense around the running game or a RB.   This isn't the 1980s.  So, worrying about going away from an offensive style of analytics (and real-world results) that has proven to be ineffective was troubling for me.   Plus, did McDonnel consider his offense's "identity" in terms of yards per game and points per game?   Had he done so, he would have seen that Identity was one of a perennial loser who ranked near the bottom in both categories.  That is not an identity one should be worried about losing.

*** Sadly, McDonnell's nephew's views are reflected by his uncle-  "In a perfect world, I'd still like to have him back," Mara said. "Until we can prove we can have a decent offense without him."**

I found John Mara's conversation enlightening.   I have to give points to the "John Mara" meddles crowd.  It's a classic passive-aggressive move for an owner to be talking about "what he would do."  I am sure John sees that as just giving his opinions, but that sort of language really puts a burden on a GM if he opts for a direction different from the one the owner has said he would take.

I will say that the view on Daniel Jones and his future with the team is dramatically different inside 1925 Giants Way than it is here on this forum, on Giants social media, and among most beat writers and pundits.   They don't see the horrible line as "MAKING EXCUSES!!!"; they see it as a legitimate factor in why DJ regressed (or, as Schoen put it, "even Fing Mahomes couldn't win behind that line).  Clearly, the injury issues concern NYG, but they don't view Jones in the same negative light as so many outside the building.   

Edit to add:  While I am sure there were other reasons Daboll wanted Bowen, I thought it was odd that he was big on the defensive stats he put up at Tennessee.  I mean, that is obviously part of the evaluation, but those stats are also heavily influenced by the defensive talent, how well the offense plays, as well as how much input the defensive-minded HC had.  Daboll's value of the run defense was interesting, I am not sure how much run defense is a predictor of overall defensive and team success.

[T200]

One of the most talked about scenes was the one with Schoen and his top lieutenants sinking in the office discussing Barkley.   Tim McDonnell's comment about "what the offense's identity without Barkley" will be is being discussed, but not in the manner I perceive it.   I saw Mara's nephew's comment to show he is woefully out of touch with today's NFL and, frankly, his team.   Analytics and even most coaches/GMs will tell you that you can't build an offense around the running game or a RB.   This isn't the 1980s.  So, worrying about going away from an offensive style of analytics (and real-world results) that has proven to be ineffective was troubling for me.   Plus, did McDonnel consider his offense's "identity" in terms of yards per game and points per game?   Had he done so, he would have seen that Identity was one of a perennial loser who ranked near the bottom in both categories.  That is not an identity one should be worried about losing.

*** Sadly, McDonnell's nephew's views are reflected by his uncle-  "In a perfect world, I'd still like to have him back," Mara said. "Until we can prove we can have a decent offense without him."**

I found John Mara's conversation enlightening.   I have to give points to the "John Mara" meddles crowd.  It's a classic passive-aggressive move for an owner to be talking about "what he would do."  I am sure John sees that as just giving his opinions, but that sort of language really puts a burden on a GM if he opts for a direction different from the one the owner has said he would take.

I will say that the view on Daniel Jones and his future with the team is dramatically different inside 1925 Giants Way than it is here on this forum, on Giants social media, and among most beat writers and pundits.   They don't see the horrible line as "MAKING EXCUSES!!!"; they see it as a legitimate factor in why DJ regressed (or, as Schoen put it, "even Fing Mahomes couldn't win behind that line).  Clearly, the injury issues concern NYG, but they don't view Jones in the same negative light as so many outside the building.   

Edit to add:  While I am sure there were other reasons Daboll wanted Bowen, I thought it was odd that he was big on the defensive stats he put up at Tennessee.  I mean, that is obviously part of the evaluation, but those stats are also heavily influenced by the defensive talent, how well the offense plays, as well as how much input the defensive-minded HC had.  Daboll's value of the run defense was interesting, I am not sure how much run defense is a predictor of overall defensive and team success.

Regarding Mara, that's what I call indirect influence. He's a master at it. He vocalizes a *wish* or *concern* and wait for someone to act on it. Most do it because the owner mentioned it.

Jones and the offensive line are two separate issues. Yes, JS did make the statement about Mahomes. And it's true. No one here has ever denied that. Schoen also said of Jones, "Is he our guy for the next 10 years or do we need to pivot and find somebody else?"

Schoen isn't going to outright trash Jones but there is clearly a huge question mark at the QB position. Fans have the luxury of speaking their minds because there are no repercussions. If Schoen mentions to just ONE person that "We gotta get rid of this effin' guy," it would get out. Not directly in words, but in how they deal with and treat DJ.

[BluesCruz]

Per Rich

"I will say that the view on Daniel Jones and his future with the team is dramatically different inside 1925 Giants Way than it is here on this forum, on Giants social media, and among most beat writers and pundits.   They don't see the horrible line as "MAKING EXCUSES!!!"; they see it as a legitimate factor in why DJ regressed (or, as Schoen put it, "even Fing Mahomes couldn't win behind that line).  Clearly, the injury issues concern NYG, but they don't view Jones in the same negative light as so many outside the building."

Right Mahommes could never win behind that horrid line

BUT. Tommy D and Tyrod were somehow were able to win behind it. Am I right?  that was the big takeaway from last year- Tommy and Tyrod clearly outperformed Jones with the same base personnel

Im glad to see my suspicions Mara has been a puppeteer have been somewhat certified.  No wonder Mara never wanted to do hard knocks

John, relax, put your feet up and let the football people make the football decisions

Schoen has to work around Mara and chose his words carefully concerning Barkley and Jones.   

[MightyGiants]

Regarding Mara, that's what I call indirect influence. He's a master at it. He vocalizes a *wish* or *concern* and wait for someone to act on it. Most do it because the owner mentioned it.

Jones and the offensive line are two separate issues. Yes, JS did make the statement about Mahomes. And it's true. No one here has ever denied that. Schoen also said of Jones, "Is he our guy for the next 10 years or do we need to pivot and find somebody else?"

Schoen isn't going to outright trash Jones but there is clearly a huge question mark at the QB position. Fans have the luxury of speaking their minds because there are no repercussions. If Schoen mentions to just ONE person that "We gotta get rid of this effin' guy," it would get out. Not directly in words, but in how they deal with and treat DJ.

Tim,

There is more than just, "Joe doesn't want to bad mouth his starting QB.".   Listen to Joe getting angry talking about how they protected Jones last year.  Joe displays some passion and emotion when talking about the raw deal DJ had last season.


https://x.com/TalkinGiants/status/1808310129319895493

[T200]

Tim,

There is more than just, "Joe doesn't want to bad mouth his starting QB.".   Listen to Joe getting angry talking about how they protected Jones last year.  Joe displays some passion and emotion when talking about the raw deal DJ had last season.


https://x.com/TalkinGiants/status/1808310129319895493

Rich,

It's understandable from the perspective that Schoen signed off on the deal to keep Jones. Now his wagon is hitched to DJ and there's a significant investment that affects how successful the team is.

Given that, I'm 100% certain that he's *not* 100% on Jones. I'd give him 70/30 at most.

[MightyGiants]

Rich,

It's understandable from the perspective that Schoen signed off on the deal to keep Jones. Now his wagon is hitched to DJ and there's a significant investment that affects how successful the team is.

Given that, I'm 100% certain that he's *not* 100% on Jones. I'd give him 70/30 at most.

I think the difference between the Giants offices and the outsiders is in how they view last season.  Outsiders, many of whom were already predicting failure for Jones, saw last season as proof they were right.  Schoen and company seem to view last season as an impossible situation, with the added bonus of Jones suffering two serious injuries behind the historically bad offensive line.

So, I wouldn't disagree with your assertion that Schoen isn't all in on Jones.  Considering the two-year "escape hatch," it doesn't appear Schoen was 100% on Jones when he signed the contract.  While I don't believe Schoen saw last year as proof that Jones is bad, it clearly didn't help remove any doubts Schoen had and the injuries only added to the doubts.

[T200]

I think the difference between the Giants offices and the outsiders is in how they view last season.  Outsiders, many of whom were already predicting failure for Jones, saw last season as proof they were right.  Schoen and company seem to view last season as an impossible situation, with the added bonus of Jones suffering two serious injuries behind the historically bad offensive line.

So, I wouldn't disagree with your assertion that Schoen isn't all in on Jones.  Considering the two-year "escape hatch," it doesn't appear Schoen was 100% on Jones when he signed the contract.  While I don't believe Schoen saw last year as proof that Jones is bad, it clearly didn't help remove any doubts Schoen had and the injuries only added to the doubts.

I'm not concerned about the outsiders, be it media or the fans. We determine nothing. When/if the Giants win consistently with Jones, the majority will be back to support in full force. Some will be reluctant and that will simply be a case of too much pride and not enough humility to admit they were wrong.

I do believe that unless Jones finishes Top 5/Top 10 and has at least 2 playoff wins this season, Schoen will be QB shopping again.

[kingm56]

I guess we forgot this is a production for entertainment purposes; moreover, these men aren't dumb, they know the cameras are there and are cognizant of their words. Speaking of words, I focus more on actions than words. Concerning the former, the Giants made concerted efforts to replace Jones via the draft.  That's far more telling of the Giants feelings towards Jones than this tv production.  This will finally be resolved at the conclusion of this season, maybe sooner. 

[MightyGiants]

I'm not concerned about the outsiders, be it media or the fans. We determine nothing. When/if the Giants win consistently with Jones, the majority will be back to support in full force. Some will be reluctant and that will simply be a case of too much pride and not enough humility to admit they were wrong.

I do believe that unless Jones finishes Top 5/Top 10 and has at least 2 playoff wins this season, Schoen will be QB shopping again.

I will never understand the obsession with being right, especially when it involves predicting the future. In the coming attractions, I heard my favorite scouting line repeated: " It's not about being right; it's about getting it right."  Like many here, I have been watching football for many decades (and constantly trying to increase my knowledge of the game as well, through books, videos, and podcasts).  My conclusion is that predicting the future success of players and teams is essentially a crap shoot.  In my opinion, one is best served trying to keep an open mind and being willing to change views as more data is added.  In other words, taking pride in being right is counter to getting it right.  Along those lines, I tend not to make many predictions as I appreciate just how many variables (many unforeseen) that can impact the outcome.  I appreciate that I am in the minority on these views.  Hell, there is a whole billion-dollar gambling industry based on the idea of being able to predict.  I appreciate it's fun to predict and then be able to crow that you were right or eat crow because you were wrong.  It's just not my thing; I prefer to try to get it right about the current state of things rather than trying to predict future outcomes.

[Ed Vette]

There is no doubt that Jones faced more adversity than the other two QB's. Fix the line and he can thrive, however Schoen never touched on Jones' culpability because he was on camera. I also agree that he has a fix the line and let's see if he's our guy attitude. There is also no doubt that he has a vested interest in Jones succeeding. He gave him the contract.

You have to cut through the BS.

That said, when Schoen said that DJ was their QB going into the draft, he was serious. We weren't listening.

In my mind, I'm concerned as I have stated ad nauseam, Jones can help them win 11 games but will choke in big games. That's QB hell but we will have meaningful games in December.

[MightyGiants]

I guess we forgot this is a production for entertainment purposes; moreover, these men aren't dumb, they know the cameras are there and are cognizant of their words. Speaking of words, I focus more on actions than words. Concerning the former, the Giants made concerted efforts to replace Jones via the draft.  That's far more telling of the Giants feelings towards Jones than this tv production.  This will finally be resolved at the conclusion of this season, maybe sooner. 

Sometimes, I wonder how people can see the world so differently than I do.  I know Matt sees things very differently than I do.  I can see in his post why he sees things differently.  First, I didn't just dismiss any evidence gained from the show as "it's just entertainment" if it didn't fit my current views (see my talk about Mara meddling as an example of changing views in light of new evidence).

The other thing I do differently is that I appreciate that there were rumors that "the Giants made concerted efforts to replace Jones," but I am unaware that we can consider that a fact.  I appreciate that it is a fact the Giants did their due diligence on all the top QBs in this past draft class, but I am not sure that could be considered a concerted effort to replace Jones.  Again, I see that as seeing if the team has a chance to replace their $40 million dollar injury-prone QB with a promising rookie.  If a team doesn't have a clearly elite QB, I would consider it GM malpractice not to explore that option if you are picking relatively high in a deep QB class.

[MightyGiants]

There is no doubt that Jones faced more adversity than the other two QB's. Fix the line and he can thrive, however Schoen never touched on Jones' culpability because he was on camera. I also agree that he has a fix the line and let's see if he's our guy attitude. There is also no doubt that he has a vested interest in Jones succeeding. He gave him the contract.

You have to cut through the BS.

That said, when Schoen said that DJ was their QB going into the draft, he was serious. We weren't listening.

In my mind, I'm concerned as I have stated ad nauseam, Jones can help them win 11 games but will choke in big games. That's QB hell but we will have meaningful games in December.

Ed,

In the 2022 playoff run, the team had three must-win games: the last game against the Colts to get into the playoffs, the away game in a hostile Doom against the 13-4 Vikings, and then against the eventual NFC champion Eagles in Philly. Jones was 2-1 in those games, and his play contributed significantly to both victories. As for the Eagles, Jones did poorly, but so did the rest of the team.  I think another significant factor in the Eagles game was the Eagles D had come up with an excellent game plan to stop what the Giants wanted to do, and Daboll and company were unable to counter (at least with the personnel they had at their disposal).

[Ed Vette]

Ed,

In the 2022 playoff run, the team had three must-win games: the last game against the Colts to get into the playoffs, the away game in a hostile Doom against the 13-4 Vikings, and then against the eventual NFC champion Eagles in Philly. Jones was 2-1 in those games, and his play contributed significantly to both victories. As for the Eagles, Jones did poorly, but so did the rest of the team.  I think another significant factor in the Eagles game was the Eagles D had come up with an excellent game plan to stop what the Giants wanted to do, and Daboll and company were unable to counter (at least with the personnel they had at their disposal).

You know the comeback lines for 2002 Rich. I stand by what I believe in Jones until he proves me wrong. He can be a better regular-season QB than Eli, but he lacks the ice in his veins. He gets rattled with pressure. I don't know that it can be fixed. Regardless, agree to disagree. It's all been writ and said.   

[MightyGiants]

You know the comeback lines for 2002 Rich. I stand by what I believe in Jones until he proves me wrong. He can be a better regular-season QB than Eli, but he lacks the ice in his veins. He gets rattled with pressure. I don't know that it can be fixed. Regardless, agree to disagree. It's all been writ and said.   

When it comes to QB pressure, I think there are two types.  There is the pressure a QB may face in a single game (a classic example is Eli's playoff game against the 49ers or any player where either DJ or Eli hung in there and took the big hit to make a completion), and there is chronic pressure.   Chronic pressure will impact QBs more than the pressure in a single play or game.  Eli faced chronic pressure later in his career (thanks to a bad line), and he went into chuck and duck survival mode.   DJ faced chronic pressure last season, and his internal clock got screwed up, and he clearly wasn't comfortable that the line would protect him which seemed to impact how he went through his progressions.

I guess for me the question is if DJ's reaction to chronic pressure will carry over to pressure in a single game or on single plays.

[MightyGiants]

Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Some leftover thoughts on Hard Knocks:

• Odd amount of time discussing a possible Saquon tag-and-trade, especially after Schoen dismissed it as unrealistic.

• Schoen clearly was wary of getting entangled in more contract drama with Saquon. He said last year's negotiations took 10 years off his life.

• Schoen's actions at RB didn't back up his words. He spoke about how data shows 27-year-old RBs fall off a cliff and then signed a RB who turns 27 before the season. He also mentioned the value signings he expected to be available in the second week of FA and then the only RB he signed was Singletary hours after FA opened. Seems like the RB market developed quicker than he expected.

• Schoen referenced CB, pass rushers and No. 1 WR as big needs early in the offseason. Makes the lack of activity at CB even more surprising.

• The Senior Bowl "trade negotiations" between Schoen and Dan Morgan seemed much more like friends busting balls. I don't think Morgan really thought he was getting two 1's.

• Daboll was hardly in the episode, which likely made him happy. Was funny when he pulled Schoen into his office to tell him he was offering the DC job to "Shane" and Schoen confirmed "Shane Bowen?" Then Daboll just read Schoen a bunch of basic Titans stats from the past three seasons. Would think they would have been well aware of those at the time they offered him the job.

• Interesting that Schoen was still referencing Waller as part of the plans to Mara in mid-February.

• Director of pro scouting Chris Rossetti is probably not a super familiar name to fans. But he clearly has a big voice in free agency discussions. He seemed to have the best handle on Saquon's market.

• We don't need to spend much time on Jones' rehab.

https://x.com/DDuggan21/status/1808494679895261463