Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 01, 2024, 07:57:30 AMMatt, 


MVP is reserved for one or two QBs.   You know that.   That is not remotely the same as potentially being in the top ten.  @tonka was right, once DJ enters the conversation, all naunce is lost.

Rich,

When you engage in obfuscation, it's more telling than just answering the question.  H explicitly used the term MVP-caliber; the key work is CALIBER.  Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, etc, etc have never won MVP awards.  Yet, as top 10/5 QBs, they are absolutely considered MVP-caliber QBs and have received MVP votes/consideration.  More than one or two QBs earn MVP votes every year; just like more than one or two player earns Heisman votes.  I can name at least 8 QBs right now who have earned MVP votes and thus are considered MVP-caliber...

I'm shocked I have to define the word caliber to you.... 

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 01, 2024, 07:33:36 AM@H-Town G-Fan

That's quite a damning and harsh attack on my character.  I will confess it angered me, and I was ready to post my usual angry reply.  Only this old dog is learning new tricks.  I took some time to consider what you said and why you said it.  So first I went back to read what you wrote:

I have a few thoughts on your comments:

1)  I believe that everyone here agrees that Jones' "marginal" or "somewhat" improvement will prevent him from continuing to be the dead man walking.

2) I asked you for clarification on that comment, but you declined.

Still, it was the part in bold that really struck me.  As far as I can tell and remember, no one suggested that Jones would have an "MVP-caliber season", not even close.  In fact that seems so far removed from what people were saying, that it reminded me of something I read recently.


What a wildly disingenuous and self-serving statement.

I don't dismiss the possibility I could have missed that quote; perhaps @Trench or one of the other people who liked your post could help you find it.

Rich,

If you're being honest, you will acknowledge several fans predicted DJ was ascending to become a top 10/5 QB; last year, a few even predicted the DJ-led offense was on the verge of 'lethality.' Any QB who ascends into the top 10/5, or leads a lethal offense, is by definition, an MVP caliber QB. I believe that's what H-Town was referring to when he made his statement; at least, that's how I interpreted it. 
 

Quote from: T200 on April 29, 2024, 03:15:42 PMI got one foot in the "Cautiously Optimistic" lane and the other in the "I'll Believe It When I See It" lane.

For me, it all hinges on Bricillo and what he can do with his guys up front. My second area of concern/interest is the running game. I don't picture a drastic fall off in production collectively from previous seasons. I actually think as a group, the production will be significantly better.

Tim, you and @Ed Vette perfectly captured my feelings.  I believe Schoen has drafted well over the last two seasons. However, like every other season, I refuse to view the Giants' roster/progress in a vacuum...it must be evaluated against other teams in our conference.  I'll wait to execute my yearly position-by-position evaluation, but right now I believe the Giants are, at best, the 3rd most talented team in division, and could be on the bottom if Daniels lives up to expectations.  It's also difficult to get excited about another Daniel Jones led offense, which is incredibly boring and frustrating to consume.

Why do said tweets need to be an explicit message from the team?  IMO, they represent nothing more than common sense based on facts. 

It's well known the Giants attempted to trade up for Drake; it's also well known DJs contract has an escape clause after this season. It should also be known DJ hasn't been very good and/or healthy. Thus, do we/Dj need a message from the team that states the obvious?

Quote from: sxdxca38 on April 27, 2024, 08:59:06 PMHi Lenn,

Please see my post to Dave that addresses a lot of your concerns.

To add to my post, I'd like to mention some of the QB's Daniel defeated in 2022, they are the following:

Lamar Jackson
Aaron Rodgers
Trevor Lawrence
Kirk Cousins (should've been twice)

Now he has Nabers, to go along with Wandale and Hyatt.

If they can get the O line to just play average, say ranked 17th-18th, Daniel will have a big year.

Speaking of "from time to time there are some posts that people make that make me say "Did he really just say that?"

You want fans to give credit for DJ, the individual, for beating the QBs/teams you listed, while simultaneously expressing it's unfair to evaluate DJ, the individual, because of a poor supporting cast?  So, he gets individual credit for the wins, but accepts minimal, to no, culpability for the loses? 

Using your logic, Aiden O'Connel is better than Mahomes; after all, the former beat the latter head-to-head this year. 

Surely you can see the fallacy in using Head-to-Head to support your position?  H-Town perfectly captured my reply relating to QBR...

Nobody is stating DJ won't improve with better protection/wrs; however, it's incredibly unlikely he'll develop into the high volume passer required to win NFL championships in the modern era.  I suspect the latter is why the Giants tried to move-up with the Pats; unfortunately, they were desperate for a QB too, which drove the price too high for our Giants.   

Quote from: T200 on April 26, 2024, 01:55:29 PMI have not. He hasn't been on since early March.

Has Slugs/Paul been around?  I hope Dan is well...he's a class act.

Quote from: Bob In PA on April 26, 2024, 01:40:13 PMking: I never fail to read his posts and highly recommend them. They are IMO too few and far between. Bob

I agree, Bob. I also don't get enough of dumpster Dan.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 26, 2024, 12:39:26 PMTo your point in bold, if that is your assertion why don't you ever include rushing yards and touchdowns in your QB stats?

I do, and have. However, this thread was about Patrick Mahomes, and the negative impact of limited WR talent.  I don't believe his 400 yards rushing is relevant to the conversation.  If I included them, he actually jumps from 6 to 4; however, as I stated, it's not relevant to the point I was replying to.

Regardless, in the modern era, it's about passing production. You must be able to throw the football to truly be competitive.  High volume passers are winning championships, not running QBs. 

Quote from: bamagiantfan on April 26, 2024, 01:15:02 PMI invite you to look at the best receiver in the SEC over the last 10 years and look at his track to production and success in the NFL. It is pretty close to "can't miss." You may also notice something interesting if you look at the top 3 lines on each list.

Yards

Player    Yds    Year    School
1    Malik Nabers*1569    2023    Louisiana State
1    Jalin Hyatt*    1267    2022    Tennessee
1    Jameson Williams*    1572    2021    Alabama
1    DeVonta Smith*    1856    2020    Alabama
1    Ja'Marr Chase*    1780    2019    Louisiana State
1    A.J. Brown    1320    2018    Mississippi
1    A.J. Brown    1252    2017    Mississippi
1    Josh Reynolds*    1039    2016    Texas A&M
1    Laquon Treadwell*    1153    2015    Mississippi
1    Amari Cooper*    1727    2014    Alabama

Receptions
Rk    Player    Rec    Year    School
1    Malik Nabers*    89    2023    Louisiana State
1    Malik Nabers*    72    2022    Louisiana State
1    Makai Polk*    105    2021    Mississippi State (Wan'dale Robinson finished with 104)
1    DeVonta Smith*    117    2020    Alabama
1    Justin Jefferson*    111    2019    Louisiana State
1    Kalija Lipscomb*    87    2018    Vanderbilt
1    Ryan Davis*    84    2017    Auburn
1    Christian Kirk*    83    2016    Texas A&M
1    Calvin Ridley*    89    2015    Alabama
1    Amari Cooper*    124    2014    Alabama

Really great input! 

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 26, 2024, 10:20:49 AMAbsolutely, QB rating and QBR are more qualitative stats that show how well a QB takes advantage of the opportunities given versus the raw stats that are most dependant on attempts

Fundamentally, it's about moving the sticks (yards) and scoring points (TDs).  QBs who throw for lots of yards and TDs,  give your team the best chance to win championships, espically in the modern era.  I suspect that's why yards, TDs, and SBs are the focus for determining HoF worthiness, as it relates to QBs.  .

These QBs comprise the NFL(s) Top 10 ALL-TIME QB RATING:

Deshaun Watson
Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garoppolo

It matters; however, not as much as yards and TDs.

Quote from: MightyGiants on April 26, 2024, 10:12:05 AMI was intrigued by Brook's and Jeremiah's small study suggesting top 10 WRs have a superior hit rate to the rest of round one.  Matt, any chance you can add when each prospect was drafted to your data? 

Rich,

If you include 2022 and 2023 drafts, WR(s) picked in the top 10 have been 100% productive; all have at least 900+ yards in their rookie seasons.

Drake London
Garrett Wilson
Ja'Marr Chase
Jaylen Waddle
DeVonta Smith

You have to go all the way back to 2017 to find a WR drafted in the top 10 who's production failed to live up to their draft position; regardless, Corey Davis had a productive career with Tenn and NYJ.  Of the WRs draft in the Top 10 over the last decade, only John Ross could be considered an outright bust.

I suspect this entered into the Giants calculus; they simply couldn't afford to miss on another top 10 pick...Nabers may have been the safest pick in the draft.

BTW, Chris Olave drafted #11, is also a highly productive season.  In short, that's 6/6 for top 11 Wrs draft since 2017 (8 years), suggesting study is accurate.

Well said, Bob.  I have high hopes for this pick!  I hope you're well. 

Quote from: TONKA56 on April 26, 2024, 10:04:24 AMPerhaps we can win just enough games to put drafting a franchise quarterback out of reach?

I believe that's referred to as QB hell, Tonka. 

Quote from: uconnjack8 on April 26, 2024, 09:51:17 AMMatt,

The only thing I could think of to rationalize the pick is that Cousins is 36 and not a long-term solution and now they potentially have that solution when Cousins is gone.  Just seems odd to me for a team to be thinking about 2026 and beyond when they have not had a winning record or playoff appearance since 2017.

Signing a 36 year old QB to that kind of guaranteed money after an Achilles injury is questionable, but was understandable given their situation.  Taking their future QB the same year is nothing short of bizarre IMO. 

If they are worried about Cousins injury to start the season, signing a high end backup seems more reasonable than drafting another QB at #10.

I completely agree, Matt. 

Quote from: Gmo11 on April 26, 2024, 09:17:50 AMIf the goal is to win 8 games instead of the usual 5 or 6 then yes this is a great situation. And Jones can do that with all these playmakers around him carrying the load.

If the goal is to win multiple playoff games and/or a super bowl they're going to need a better QB and they'll need him quick before Nabers becomes very expensive.

Perciesly the point! It should be clear by now DJ is not going to become the high volume passer necessary to win Championships.  Nabers doesn't change that paradigm.