JJ McCarthy (could he be the Giants target in round one)?

[brownelvis54]

I was really high on McCarthy, but I have concerns about his mental health. In the NFL the pressure is at an all time high...especially QB



https://www.si.com/college/michigan/football/michigan-football-wolverines-jj-mccarthy-mental-health-big-ten-meditation-depression

[DaveBrown74]

Yeah but the prognosticators are dopes like us.

See the second part of the my post.

[MightyGiants]

I was really high on McCarthy, but I have concerns about his mental health. In the NFL the pressure is at an all time high...especially QB



https://www.si.com/college/michigan/football/michigan-football-wolverines-jj-mccarthy-mental-health-big-ten-meditation-depression

That was an interesting article, thanks for sharing.  Having read it, I have no worries about his mental health.  He has his head on straight and meditation is a powerful tool.

[nb587]

Let me ask a real stupid question here from a non fan of the college game.  I have not read about Michigan WRs talked about as being especially good.  If true, and JJ is just a game manager, how is it that none of the quality opponents, Ohio St, Alabama, Washington etc couldnt stop the run- put 8-9 guys on the line of scrimmage and make JJ beat them with his arm.  To my knowledge, it never happened.

[StompYouOT]

I could be into JJ, but with our 2nd pick. I did a little internet searching last week and he's a 2-3 Rounder.  But there's always a rush on QBs and someone flies up the board.  He seems like a likely candidate, just NOT at 6.

Wait or trade back into the first I guess.  I wouldn't feel bad about him being on the roster, not like it can be much worse.  He has more evidence on his side than Jones, so to me it's not the same thing at all.  Not saying he will be a better pro than DJ, but I like the idea more.

[MightyGiants]

Let me ask a real stupid question here from a non fan of the college game.  I have not read about Michigan WRs talked about as being especially good.  If true, and JJ is just a game manager, how is it that none of the quality opponents, Ohio St, Alabama, Washington etc couldnt stop the run- put 8-9 guys on the line of scrimmage and make JJ beat them with his arm.  To my knowledge, it never happened.

According to PFF

Here are Michigan's rankings by offensive metric

total offense- 5th
passing- 11th
pass blocking- 50th
receiving- 6th
running- 50th
run blocking- 9th

[uconnjack8]

Should pin this thread and see how opinions evolve over the next 11 weeks or so.

[Jclayton92]

Another thing to add to the equation:

JJ had basically 3000 yds 22 Tds 4 Int and an 88 QBR. Which are good stats for not having the best wrs and a great RB room.

However, they sat him in the 2nd, and 3rd quarter because they were so far ahead in like 70% of their games. Had he played the full 4 quarters in every game he'd be pushing 30+ Tds and 4500 yards. So take that into consideration when you look at the Jayden Daniels and Nix Stata because they played the whole game for almost all their games.

[Philosophers]

Another thing to add to the equation:

JJ had basically 3000 yds 22 Tds 4 Int and an 88 QBR. Which are good stats for not having the best wrs and a great RB room.

However, they sat him in the 2nd, and 3rd quarter because they were so far ahead in like 70% of their games. Had he played the full 4 quarters in every game he'd be pushing 30+ Tds and 4500 yards. So take that into consideration when you look at the Jayden Daniels and Nix Stata because they played the whole game for almost all their games.

You nailed it.  JJ didnt play generally in half the third and all of 4th quarters in probably 75% of his games.

[MightyGiants]

Should pin this thread and see how opinions evolve over the next 11 weeks or so.

If I were a betting man, I would say JJ's draft stock will continue to rise.  Because he didn't declare until January, nowhere near the amount of work was done on him.  As more people (particularly NFL people, and their thoughts leak) dig in, I think he will be pushed higher and higher on people's draft boards.

I think these comments by former GM Randy Mueller support what I am saying:

That information is very tricky to gather on players who might be returning for another year, like McCarthy, especially at a place like Michigan, which has been known to not always be open with its information to visiting scouts. Gathering character and background information on McCarthy is a much different process for scouts than it was for Penix.

Off-field information is a big part of the evaluation process. Those of us on the outside are not as plugged in as scouts and NFL executives, and for quarterbacks, this part of their file might be even more important than their arm strength. If these things check out, I could see either of these guys being top-10 picks, maybe even higher, in April.

[DaveBrown74]

If I were a betting man, I would say JJ's draft stock will continue to rise.  Because he didn't declare until January, nowhere near the amount of work was done on him.  As more people (particularly NFL people, and their thoughts leak) dig in, I think he will be pushed higher and higher on people's draft boards.

I would agree with that. JJ does have tools, and he seems likely to interview well and do pretty well at the combine. He's also considerably younger than the other two.

If you told me the Giants were taking a QB in the first couple of rounds and it wasn't going to be Williams, Maye, or Daniels, I'd want it to be McCarthy. 

[Philosophers]

Best way to describe Michigan WRs.  Good WRs who really understood the offensive scheme and played well in that scheme but they are not the 5 star athletes of say a Harrison, Odunze, Eguba, etc.

Michigan's TEs were relied on heavily.  They were good.  Colston Loveland was IMHO the 2nd best TE after Bowers.

JJ's stats were not low because of his pass catchers.  They were lower because he did not play for a quarter and a half in most games and he did not olay from behind in which he had to throw.  Simple as that.  Count the number of times he threw 30 times in a game.  What twice during regular season in 2023?

[MightyGiants]

Another thing to add to the equation:

JJ had basically 3000 yds 22 Tds 4 Int and an 88 QBR. Which are good stats for not having the best wrs and a great RB room.

However, they sat him in the 2nd, and 3rd quarter because they were so far ahead in like 70% of their games. Had he played the full 4 quarters in every game he'd be pushing 30+ Tds and 4500 yards. So take that into consideration when you look at the Jayden Daniels and Nix Stata because they played the whole game for almost all their games.

PFF allows me to find the snap counts per QB (if only one count no post-season)


JJ McCarthy-  826 (650 regular season)
C. Williams- 761
D. Maye-  909
J. Daniels- 702
M. Penix- 984 (757 regular season)
B Nix-  870 (752 regular season)


So McCarthy did take significantly less snaps than the other leading QBs

[Jclayton92]

PFF allows me to find the snap counts per QB (if only one count no post-season)


JJ McCarthy-  826 (650 regular season)
C. Williams- 761
D. Maye-  909
J. Daniels- 702
M. Penix- 984 (757 regular season)
B Nix-  870 (752 regular season)


So McCarthy did take significantly less snaps than the other leading QBs

Yeah I knew there was a big difference. I think sometimes people over think things. The kid has the highest winning percentage of any Qb in college the past decade. Think of all the great qbs, and he has a better percentage than them all. The kid went 27-1 in college and 36-2 in high school. Meaning he's a total of 63-3 in the last 7 years of football. Guys like that just win, he's a culture builder/tone setter. He reminds me a lot of Jalen Hurts when he came out, a lot of people doubted him a ton, but all the guy did was win whether in high school, at Alabama, or at Oklahoma he just won games and figured it out. I don't think Mccarthys game us anything like hurts, but just that winning mindset over a sustained period of time makes me think the kid just figures it out. I think his game is very similar to Joe Burrow, though I've seen Andrew Luck and Cousins comps for him.

The kid has a howitzer for an arm, and you can see him read the entire field, go through progressions, and lead that Michigan team. I also believe him learning from Harbaugh and being in a Pro style offense for those years sets him up to be the most ready to step in and immediately contribute.

I would be happy with the pick assuming we get him a number 1 receiver at 6, and then use the 1 2nd round pick and some others to move up and get him at the end of the 1st.

[MightyGiants]

Yeah I knew there was a big difference. I think sometimes people over think things. The kid has the highest winning percentage of any Qb in college the past decade. Think of all the great qbs, and he has a better percentage than them all. The kid went 27-1 in college and 36-2 in high school. Meaning he's a total of 63-3 in the last 7 years of football. Guys like that just win, he's a culture builder/tone setter. He reminds me a lot of Jalen Hurts when he came out, a lot of people doubted him a ton, but all the guy did was win whether in high school, at Alabama, or at Oklahoma he just won games and figured it out. I don't think Mccarthys game us anything like hurts, but just that winning mindset over a sustained period of time makes me think the kid just figures it out. I think his game is very similar to Joe Burrow, though I've seen Andrew Luck and Cousins comps for him.

The kid has a howitzer for an arm, and you can see him read the entire field, go through progressions, and lead that Michigan team. I also believe him learning from Harbaugh and being in a Pro style offense for those years sets him up to be the most ready to step in and immediately contribute.

I would be happy with the pick assuming we get him a number 1 receiver at 6, and then use the 1 2nd round pick and some others to move up and get him at the end of the 1st.

Great summation!   I am hearing a lot of chatter of McCarthy going to the Vikings, Raiders, and Falcons.  I am beginning to doubt he McCarthy will make it past 20