Thoughts on J.J. McCarthy ? Michigan Football Player QB

[brownelvis54]

Anyone watch Michigan? J.J. McCarthy has been on my radar lately. Seeing that we will not be in position to draft Williams or Maye...perhaps J.J. McCarthy is a guy that The Giants could draft? His stock is rising. The games I have seen, the kid looks good. McCarthy, as of recent weeks, has been listed as a top-10 pick and he's been mocked as high as the sixth pick in the draft. And as low as 20th.


"J.J. (McCarthy)," Harbaugh, now in his ninth year at Michigan, told reporters unprompted this week in Ann Arbor, "is a once-in-a-generation quarterback. J.J. has shown to be on a path to be the best quarterback in Michigan history."



McCarthy, a 6-foot-3, 202-pound junior who'll lead No. 2 Michigan at Michigan State on Saturday night, currently rates No. 1 in the FBS (minimum 100 attempts) in the following passing metrics: Expected points added (EPA) per dropback (.58), EPA per dropback plus runs (.64) and percentage of touchdowns or first downs per play (50 percent). He's No. 2 in completion rate (78.2 percent) and No. 3 in yards per attempt (10.6). He is on pace to set a number of Michigan passing records, including TD passes, completion rate, yards per attempt, passer efficiency and — if Michigan wins the Big Ten and plays extra football — yards in a single season.




https://theathletic.com/4978944/2023/10/20/jj-mccarthy-scouting-report-jim-harbaugh/

[Philosophers]

Anyone watch Michigan? J.J. McCarthy has been on my radar lately. Seeing that we will not be in position to draft Williams or Maye...perhaps J.J. McCarthy is a guy that The Giants could draft? His stock is rising. The games I have seen, the kid looks good. McCarthy, as of recent weeks, has been listed as a top-10 pick and he's been mocked as high as the sixth pick in the draft. And as low as 20th.


"J.J. (McCarthy)," Harbaugh, now in his ninth year at Michigan, told reporters unprompted this week in Ann Arbor, "is a once-in-a-generation quarterback. J.J. has shown to be on a path to be the best quarterback in Michigan history."



McCarthy, a 6-foot-3, 202-pound junior who'll lead No. 2 Michigan at Michigan State on Saturday night, currently rates No. 1 in the FBS (minimum 100 attempts) in the following passing metrics: Expected points added (EPA) per dropback (.58), EPA per dropback plus runs (.64) and percentage of touchdowns or first downs per play (50 percent). He's No. 2 in completion rate (78.2 percent) and No. 3 in yards per attempt (10.6). He is on pace to set a number of Michigan passing records, including TD passes, completion rate, yards per attempt, passer efficiency and — if Michigan wins the Big Ten and plays extra football — yards in a single season.




https://theathletic.com/4978944/2023/10/20/jj-mccarthy-scouting-report-jim-harbaugh/

As a Michigan fan, I have watched every game that JJ McCarthy has played QB at Michigan over the past several years.  I think I have a very good perspective on him.  He grew up in Illinois in an upper middle class family.  His dad owns his printing/logistics business.  His mom was a competitive figure skater so she got him in skates early and he played hockey throughout his youth.  He attended high school in Illinois and played football before transferring to IMG Academy in Florida for further development.  At IMG, he was a 4 star recruit.

He's 6'3" and plays between 195 - 200 pounds.  As a comparison, Tom Brady was 6'4" and 193 pounds at Michigan.  Brady was very skinny.  JJ is thicker.  I am sure as an NFLer, he will add some muscle, but you will not look at him now and think he needs to.  From playing hockey, I think it developed his athleticism as he runs very well for a QB.

Mechanics - He's a right handed throwing quarterback with beautiful throwing mechanics.  You see really good rotation in his hips/butt/lower leg where he generates a lot of torque.  His footwork has improved a lot since he started at Michigan in 2021.  When forced out of the pocket, his feet did not set properly so although his upper body mechanics were good, his lower body was not so good.  In 2023, he has drastically improved that to where his feet/legs set up properly running to his left or right.  His arm is really live.  Because of his throwing mechanics, he throws ropes for passes with very tight spirals.  Earlier in his career, he tended to not put as much air under his throws which generated less accuracy than if he adjusted his throws with more of an arc.  Now he has a better command of the touch he needs to put on intermediate/deep throws.  I still want him to improve more on that.

Decisionmaking - You can't say enough about how much he looks downfield to make deeper throws.  I would say the biggest development now is how well he sees the field.  He does not lock into his receivers the way he did last year.  He scans everyone.  When he has to run, he runs with his eyes toward making throws.  He is not a run first QB but on design run plays, he runs very effectively.  I'd say he runs like Daniel Jones in terms of athleticism and willingness, however JJ is always looking to throw.  Even when he runs with his head down he will look up, focus quickly downfield and sling it.

Stats - In 2023, JJ is putting up good stats especially completion percentage, but I would not call them prolific stats say in yards or TDs.  The reason is that Jim Harbaugh is taking him out in the late 3rd Quarter to play backups but he is also doing that across all positions because he wants experienced depth.  Harbaugh is even playing into his 4th string QB.  Michigan's offense is not designed like Lincoln Riley's USC's offense in which it is built around his QB, Caleb Williams.  Michigan's offense is built behind a very complicated running scheme.  It's been described as the most complex running system in college football and exactly akin to NFL level running and blocking schemes.  Their passing game compliments their running game.  JJ is not a game manager, but it is Harbaugh's goal to get to a 50-50 run/pass ratio in each game.  Last year, Ohio State played up in the box and dared JJ to beat them deep and he made them pay.

WR Playmakers - If Ohio State has produced A to A+ WRs, I would describe Michigan's WRs as B.  Michigan has not had a Marvin Harrison, Garrett Wilson, Michael Thomas quality WR in 20+ years.  JJ works with what he has.  This year, he has probably his best WR in Roman Wilson, a very fast deep threat out of Hawaii.  After that, his WRs are Bs but they are developing.

TE Playmakers - McCarthy has been blessed with very good TEs though his 2023 group is far and away the best.  Colston Loveland is the closest TE to Brock Bowers from UGA.  AJ Barner is another very good TE.  Harbaugh really values the TE position and the mismatches a larger, faster TE can create.

Earlier this year, JJ was concentrating many of his throws to Roman Wilson which concerned me as NFL QBs need to distribute more, however recently, he has really improved his passing distribution to other WRs and his TEs as well his running backs like Donovan Edwards.

Meditation - one thing JJ does before every game is he sits against a goal post with headphones on and meditates.  He does it for maybe 15 minutes, to quiet his thinking and any hyper-energy he has and just relaxes.  He says it really helps him to remain calm during games.

Conclusion - You can tell I really like JJ, but I am still not 100% sold on him as a Giant.  In 2022, against Penn State's vaunted CBs, he was 17-24 for only 145 yards 0 TDs and 1 INT as they played him tough as they had Joey Porter, Jr and Kaleb King who were stud CBs.  Against OSU in 2022, he was 12-24 for 263 yeards 3 TDs 0 INTs.  In the loss against TCU in the playoffs, he was 20-34 for 343 yards 2 TDs, 2 INTs.  He threw 2 early pick sixes, but then settled down and played really well.  Even though they lost, his play, especially in the second half was really good.  It showed that he can get his head back in the game.

I want to see him finish this season against PSU's CBs like King as well as Ohio State's defense.  Those two games will really matter to me in terms of my final conclusion about JJ because for example, OSU plays a 1 deep safety now under their new DC, Jim Knowles which is designed to take big plays away.  I want to see how well he stays within himself to take what the defense will give him and not force bad throws.

Given his great trajectory in development and the fact he runs an NFL style offense, I think if he finishes strong against Purdue, Penn State, Maryland and Ohio State, he will win the Heisman.  If he has a good playoff games (assuming they make the playoffs) and win the national championship, I would not be surprised if he is the number 1 QB off the board.   

This kid comes from a great family and is very humble.  He is completely different than Daniel Jones that he is very vocal to talk to his teammates and motivate them.  When he takes a hit, his fellow players immediately go over to protect him and will not hesitate to go after a defensive player who they may feel was overly aggressive.  That tells me a lot about how much they like JJ.

Last year in the Spring, I put together a post asking folks to make bold predictions about college players.  I said that JJ would be a top 20 pick.  I still feel good about that selection.

Hope this helps.

[Jclayton92]

He's slowly becoming QB 3. I love his ball placement and how he moves in the pocket. With a strong close to the season could push maye and Williams for the qb 1 honors.


It's why getting a qb this offseason is so huge, there are at least 5 guys that could be a guy.

[brownelvis54]

Thanks Joseph. Great post. When he takes a hit, his fellow players immediately go over to protect him and will not hesitate to go after a defensive player who they may feel was overly aggressive.  That tells me a lot about how much they like JJ. This says a lot about him to me. I know everyone like Calib Williams, I do have questions about him. I live in Los angeles and see a lot of UCLA and USC. Williams can look really good and at times ( against the top 25) look very poor.

Where we pick I could see J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr and Quinn Ewers being there. These 3 I am watching the most.



I am not sold on Shedeur Sanders, Bo Nix and Riley Leonard who should be there when we pick as well. Deep QB draft. Giants cant get it wrong.

[Philosophers]

Thanks Joseph. Great post. When he takes a hit, his fellow players immediately go over to protect him and will not hesitate to go after a defensive player who they may feel was overly aggressive.  That tells me a lot about how much they like JJ. This says a lot about him to me. I know everyone like Calib Williams, I do have questions about him. I live in Los angeles and see a lot of UCLA and USC. Williams can look really good and at times ( against the top 25) look very poor.

Where we pick I could see J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr and Quinn Ewers being there. These 3 I am watching the most.



I am not sold on Shedeur Sanders, Bo Nix and Riley Leonard who should be there when we pick as well. Deep QB draft. Giants cant get it wrong.

Penix has had three major surgeries including two ACL knee reconstructions.  He is accurate but I think his arm is average.

Ewers committed to Texas then went to Ohio St then when his NIL said he would not get paid unless he played certain amount of snaps, he figured he would not beat CJ Stroud so he transferred from Ohio St to Texas.  I just dont love that fact pattern.

Sanders already owns a Rolls Royce.  I think he wants to be famous more than he wants to be great.

Caleb is tough for me.  When I watch college football he is in it seems like every commercial.  When he played Oregon and was not playing great, he seemed to brood rather than grab his teammates and rally folks.

Drake Maye is not someone I have seen enough to have a real view.  He is intriguing.

Again to finish his college development, JJ has to finish strong otherwise I am not 100% sold.  Love the kid though.

[Jclayton92]

Yeah I'm high on other guys, Ewers who has a cannon but hasn't developed much since last year, and penix who is to old and injured are sliding down quickly. Sanders is a wild card for me but I am also a Dart fan, despite him playing for the school I root for I wasn't high on him last season but he's transformed in his 2nd year in the system and taken those next steps that you love to see good Qbs actually take and would be and 2nd/3rd round guy you could take and turn into something. Maye is also sliding a little bit for me as I don't know that he's taken those next steps from last year to this year.

[Philosophers]

Yeah I'm high on other guys, Ewers who has a cannon but hasn't developed much since last year, and penix who is to old and injured are sliding down quickly. Sanders is a wild card for me but I am also a Dart fan, despite him playing for the school I root for I wasn't high on him last season but he's transformed in his 2nd year in the system and taken those next steps that you love to see good Qbs actually take and would be and 2nd/3rd round guy you could take and turn into something. Maye is also sliding a little bit for me as I don't know that he's taken those next steps from last year to this year.

I'm with you.  Year over year development is key.