Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: MightyGiants on March 14, 2017, 01:39:46 PM
I think they tend to be more accurate (in terms of roughly where players are taken).  Anyway what I have noticed is that players that seemed out of reach prior to the draft often seem to be mocked as available on 23.  Depending on the draft one of these three players are being projected as being available at 23

TE David Njoku
OT Garett Bolles
OT Ryan Ramczyk

Rich: I did the same exercise and came up four names: Njoku, Bolles, Peppers and Watson

I believe the probability that at least three of them will be there is about 90 percent.

Now for the difficult part: I also figure two of them are likely to be busts..... so......   LOL   Bob

Quote from: Vette on March 11, 2017, 10:51:47 AM
Unfortunately, the position the Giants are in is that they need O-Line help in my my opinion. If they agree and the rest of the teams in the draft believe so too then they tipped their hand. The first round pick really needs to be BPA. Not BPA at two positions. Two because if Hankins walks they need two. Before Newhouse was lost the #1 was DT. Now, it looks like a tie to me. 

Ed: Just guessing (from the circumstantial evidence) but I now believe the Giants intend to "compete" strongly to retain Big Hank.

If they felt he was a goner (due to other teams overpaying) they probably would have signed at least one free-agent OL they lost (to the Raiders/Broncos) or allowed to walk (Newhouse).

Bob

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on March 11, 2017, 10:22:49 AM

Bottom Line

Elflein is a smart, tireless worker with a winning background and experience at all three interior offensive line spots. While his feet are just average, his core strength and wrestling background could make him a favorite of teams looking for more strength at the center position. Elflein will have occasional issues in pass protection, but his strength as a run blocker and ability to play with excellent hands and plus body control should make him one of the first interior linemen to come off the draft board.

Jolly:  Great post.  You make an outstanding case for Elflein.  Now I'm going to feel bad if the Giants take McCaffrey. LOL

Before I got to your final paragraph (reproduced above), I did note your earlier remark about his wrestling experience and was already on-board. 

Wrestling experience is an outstanding quality to possess for good interior offensive line play, because the officials now uniformly allow holding by interior linemen.

Bob

Rich: Nice report; the ideal move would be trade down a few spots then take him, but we both know that's not likely to happen.

Nevertheless, the Giants should not pass up Christian McCaffrey if he is there at pick 23. 

I really don't care who else is available.

Passing on McCaffrey IMO would be equivalent to the teams who passed on Zeke Elliott last year.

Bob

Now that the combines are over, here are the players some "experts" are projecting to the Giants, either at pick 23 or (in the case of Casserly) after a trade up to pick 18:

Charley Casserly, NFL.com - Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin (Projected trade up with Titans to No. 18 pick)
Dane Brugler, NFLDraftScout.com - Garett Bolles, OT, Utah
Rob Rang, The Sports Xchange - Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
Emily Kaplan, MMQB - O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
Peter Prisco, CBS Sports - Haason Reddick, OLB, Temple
Will Brinson, CBS Sports - Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State
Bucky Brooks, NFL.com - Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

(1) Assuming all of the above players are available at pick 23, who is your first choice?
(2) Assuming the Giants don't trade up and Ramczyk is gone, now who is your first choice?
(3) Which player do you think THE GIANTS will actually take? (could be anyone one, whether or not he's on the list)
(4) Which player, if taken by the Giants, would cause you to throw the remote at your TV set?

Bob

PS. My answers: (1) Ramczyk; (2) McCaffrey (sorry, he's too perfect a fit to pass up); (3) McCaffrey (the Giants love "legacy" picks; his dad was a Giant); (4) none would bother me, assuming they can't re-sign Hankins.

It would be an easy choice for me; IMO, Howard is more ready to contribute now and solid in more areas.

He blocks for the run better than about half of all current NFL offensive linemen (and about three-fourths of all NFL tight ends).

Bob

Quote from: todge on February 26, 2017, 10:33:55 PM
Great article Rich. In looking at the numbers - it looks like the 10% success rate is probably more from the 5th to 7th Rounds.

Irrespective of the numbers - I don't think we as fans should criticize the Giants for their 3rd day picks not making it. There is plenty of valid criticism to be levied to Ross and his Scouts for their first and second day selections!

Ted: Sad, but true. Bob

Quote from: Vette on February 26, 2017, 10:36:03 AM
In that group, what would be bad luck, Bob?

Ed: I'm referring to the fact that the draft is a crap-shoot to start with, so long runs of bad results in the later rounds are not a great surprise to me.

MOST draft picks after round three are already more likely than not to fail, so there are bound to be runs of what I term "bad luck" (meaning that the long-shots just never seem to come in).

I wonder how the data you cited compares to the first six years under George Young or Ernie Accorsi - or - how it compares to the same sixyear period for the Patriots (for example), but I'm too lazy to do the work, so I'm just going to go and look it up, hopefully for my own edification.  For the record, I believe I will find that they fared no better.

Bob

PS. A comparison to the Seahawks' past six drafts might be even more interesting.

PPS. I was too lazy to look up anything except the Seahawks, and I discovered an almost unheard-of run of great drafts, BUT all or virtually all of the successful picks were above round 4.  In fact, IMO, they picked more crap in rounds 4-7 during the past six years than the Giants.  Of course, my knowledge of their roster is a lot less "in-depth" than my knowledge of the Giants' roster.

Quote from: Shoelessjoe on February 26, 2017, 11:35:43 AM
You have to let the draft come to you especially if you are picking at 23.

Quote from: Philosophers on February 26, 2017, 12:11:41 PM
Shoeless - that is 100% correct.  All the "I want this player" means little when the draft moves away from you.  A team has to have a diverse strategy that encompasses various draft scenarios.  One thing we forget is that they are on the clock and when all of a sudden something that seems unfathomable happens such as the 1996 draft when they thought they thought with the 5th pick, they'd get either Simeon Rice or Jonathan Ogden as they thought for sure Lawrence Phillips would be drafted before their pick.  Well, that didn't happen and they had to adjust on the fly and took Cedric Jones.  They didn't have a plan.

Phil and Joe:  I think you just line up the players on your paper and cross off the players picked, then when it's your turn you evaluate the POSITIONS that have been taken with an eye toward what is likely to be left on your NEXT pick, then you make your CURRENT pick.  This system allows you to adjust in two ways: first, if the top remaining player on your list plays a position that has already been "popular" in the picks before you, you can just take that player; second, if the position of the next player has so far been ignored, you also have the option of skipping over that guy if, for example, the next guy below him on your list plays a position where the draft is weak or where there's greater need.

I believe this is what the Giants already do.

IMO, the problem for us "observers" is not the systematic approach the Giants use, but rather that we often disagree with the order in which they've placed the players on their list.  Since they spend more time assembling their list than I do, I usually tend to give them the benefit of the doubt, figuring they know a whole lot more than I do.

Bob

Ed:  Do you believe your study allows us to rule out simple "bad luck" or is that still one of the options?  Bob

Quote from: Jaime on February 25, 2017, 04:50:48 PM
From what I've been able to glean thus far, the Draft is deep, really deep at Corner, Running Back & DT. The hype regarding DE and TE I believe, should be tempered with the availability of the specific skill-set u r seeking. Too many of the DE's are essentially 3-4 Rush Backers. Check out How many of the  TE's are oversized wide receivers?  Both positions have a lot of talent, but lack the size to give us a good fit for our respective Schemes.

With the 23rd overall selection, if the best player there on the board is a Corner, we should take him and run! Can't have too many Corners, damn straight! Four WR sets aside, Think of it this way guys. A twisted knee and your Slot becomes a starter. Two Twisted knees, and your Dime becomes a starter. U can have a good front seven, but if your Corners can't cover, you got major problems in today's NFL

Jaime: This is also my attitude toward the situation. Well said. Bob

Quote from: todge on February 25, 2017, 11:21:02 AM
Sorry Bob but I disagree. Even though the Giants claim they use the BPA philosophy, history tells us that it is "best player at a position of need".  After drafting Apple last year, I would say it is very unlikely they would use another 1st Round pick on a nickel/dime CB.  That type of player might be selected in the latter Rounds. They have too many other needs to fill on this team right now than CB.

Ted: I'm just playing the odds, because IMO the "strength" of free-agency does not match well with the Giants' needs; similarly, although this draft is deep in talent, the depth is also not a great match.

Top-notch free-agents (and 1st- and 2nd-round players) will be available to the Giants, but not at the positions of greatest need.

I believe they will (wisely IMO) flow with the strength of the draft and free-agency and not "force" anything; desperation usually produces bad results.

For these reasons, this off-season should be EXTRA interesting for us arm-chair GM's to watch.

Bob

Quote from: sooners56 on February 25, 2017, 09:59:27 AM
Any chance the best player and value on the board is a CB who the Giants just have to select?

sooner: There is a high likelihood that the best player will be a CB; it's possible they could hope to trade down if that happens.

Generally, it will be interesting to see whether they stick to best-player-available strategy throughout this draft, because it is so deep.

If it does turn out to be a cornerback, I think they will take him IF they think he can cover the slot.

Bob

Slim pickin's.

Everyone:

As I just messaged weeze privately, I'm not going down for spring training this year, so his tickets are up for grabs.

In case you have never been down and are considering it, spring training baseball in Florida is one of the most fun things a sports fan can do.

Bob