Ranking the QB prospects since 2020

[MightyGiants]

My first question (an ode to the late great JimV) was "who is Ian Valentino?"   I wasn't going to post this if he was just some guy.  So here is his bio:

Ian Valentino is currently the NFL Scouting Director for PFN. He has covered all aspects for the NFL since 2013. He's previously provided scouting services to the NFL, XFL, and CFL in addition to writing for Bleacher Report, Complex Sports, and Sports Illustrated.

[Philosophers]

I have a hard time believing he'd rank Bryce Young 12th prior to his rookie NFL season.  That feels like hindsight more.

[PSUBeirut]

Yeah I'd have to see when he ranked them the years they were each drafted in order to give this any kind of attention. 

[MightyGiants]

I have a hard time believing he'd rank Bryce Young 12th prior to his rookie NFL season.  That feels like hindsight more.

I couldn't find a draft ranking from him.  I did see him do a much draft where Young fell to the Raiders and was the 3rd QB drafted

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-3-round-nfl-mock-draft-bryce-young-falls-while-c-j-stroud-and-anthony-richardson-surge/

@PSUBeirut

[uconnjack8]

So he has Maye as the 2nd best QB this year.  Feels like most of what I see now is William, Daniels and then a debate of Maye vs McCarthy. 

[Ed Vette]

Is this a ranking pre-draft?

[Painter]

I do understand that this is how we may choose to occupy ourselves, but until I see one of them and his team win their Conference, i.e. play for a Lombardi, the term "prospect" will continue to be not just be a matter of someone's opinion but will also mean little or nothing to me.

Let me know if you feel that I am being too cynical.

Cheers!

[uconnjack8]

I have a hard time believing he'd rank Bryce Young 12th prior to his rookie NFL season.  That feels like hindsight more.

Why do you feel that he wouldn't have had higher grades on the 11 in front of young? 

I could definitely see scouts considering his ceiling lower than the rest.  And my understanding is that they tend to place potential above production when evaluating

[MightyGiants]

Is this a ranking pre-draft?

Here is his explanation as well as details on each ranking

I've created an integrated listing of the 18 first-round quarterback prospects since 2020, using my own grades and actual draft position. Some players haven't quite worked out as well as the league and I hoped, but that's the risk the NFL draft brings. There's rarely a sure thing.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-where-would-top-qbs-rank-among-recent-top-prospects/

[MightyGiants]

I have a hard time believing he'd rank Bryce Young 12th prior to his rookie NFL season.  That feels like hindsight more.

12. BRYCE YOUNG, CAROLINA PANTHERS
I promise this isn't an overcorrection based on Bryce Young's rookie season. Despite the impressive collegiate production and highlight reel, I wasn't high on him.

Young's issues ranged from pre-snap defensive identifications to middling arm strength and late passing attempts.

Those problems were exacerbated by a terrible surrounding cast in Carolina last season. Young should improve as his situation does, and his playmaking outside of structure pushes him above his peers despite the bad start to his career.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-where-would-top-qbs-rank-among-recent-top-prospects/

[Bob In PA]

Rich: To elaborate upon the question posed by @PSUBeirut ...

He seems to be ranking veterans where he believes they fall (best to worst) among themselves, then inserting this year's group in where he believes they will fall in the future.

OK, but IMO the chart is only useful for showing us HIS speculation of how good each rookie will be, compared to HIS view of how good each veteran has been during his career. 

Having two variables like that is unnecessary (and certainly contentious in the case of the veterans, as can be seen by the reactions of some of our members).  The variable ranking how good each vet is relative to the others adds nothing.

It's the same as saying (using his rankings, not mine), "I rank this year's QB's as follows: Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix and Penix."  He could have then added something like this: "I think my favorite (Williams) will turn out better than Stroud but not as well as Lawrence."

Bob

[MightyGiants]

I do understand that this is how we may choose to occupy ourselves, but until I see one of them and his team win their Conference, i.e. play for a Lombardi, the term "prospect" will continue to be not just be a matter of someone's opinion but will also mean little or nothing to me.

Let me know if you feel that I am being too cynical.

Cheers!

Larry,

Former GM Mike Lombardi is big on these sorts of comparisons.    If a draft class is evaluated in a vacuum, there is a tendency to overinflate the QB prospects.  It helps one to get a better feel of the worth of QB prospects in this year's class.

That said, no one can say with certainty what any drafted prospect will end up doing in the NFL.

[MightyGiants]

Rich: To elaborate upon the question posed by @PSUBeirut ...

He seems to be ranking veterans where he believes they fall (best to worst) among themselves, then inserting this year's group in where he believes they will fall in the future.

OK, but IMO the chart is only useful for showing us HIS speculation of how good each rookie will be, compared to HIS view of how good each veteran has been during his career. 

Having two variables like that is unnecessary (and certainly contentious in the case of the veterans, as can be seen by the reactions of some of our members).  The variable ranking how good each vet is relative to the others adds nothing.

It's the same as saying (using his rankings, not mine), "I rank this year's QB's as follows: Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Nix and Penix."  He could have then added something like this: "I think my favorite (Williams) will turn out better than Stroud but not as well as Lawrence."

Bob

The author's own words

The 2024 quarterback class looks as strong as we've seen in several years due to the depth of talent available.

The sextet of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. have earned their flowers with stellar play at the collegiate level. But where would these top quarterbacks rank compared to the first-round passers in the past five classes?

I've created an integrated listing of the 18 first-round quarterback prospects since 2020, using my own grades and actual draft position. Some players haven't quite worked out as well as the league and I hoped, but that's the risk the NFL draft brings. There's rarely a sure thing.

From best to worst, here's how the 2024 NFL Draft's top six quarterback prospects stack up to the most recent draft classes since 2020.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-where-would-top-qbs-rank-among-recent-top-prospects/

[Bob In PA]

I've created an integrated listing of the 18 first-round quarterback prospects since 2020, using my own grades and actual draft position.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-where-would-top-qbs-rank-among-recent-top-prospects/

Rich: Was Joe Burrows ranked higher than Trevor Lawrence? I think not. Lawrence was a consensus top-rated QB in his draft, so I suppose it's fair to compare Lawrence to Williams (this year's consensus top-rated QB), but there is no value in a chart that shows Burrows ranked ahead of Lawrence when talking about the draft. Bob

[uconnjack8]

Rich: Was Joe Burrows ranked higher than Trevor Lawrence? I think not. Lawrence was a consensus top-rated QB in his draft, so I suppose it's fair to compare Lawrence to Williams (this year's consensus top-rated QB), but there is no value in a chart that shows Burrows ranked ahead of Lawrence when talking about the draft. Bob

I was surprised about that too, especially given Burrows limited success compared to Lawrence.  But I think these are pre-draft grades.  I am guessing its splitting hairs in terms of the grade difference.