When can we expect Nabers to emerge?

[kingm56]

The short answer is quickly, or never. 

A few years ago, I ran a statistical analysis of every skilled position; my intent was to determine when you could expect a player, at a given position, to emerge.  My thesis was the notion it takes 3-to-5 years to judge a player is outdated and inaccurate.  During that effort, I realized WRs, more than any other skilled position, emerge quickly and have a fairly predictable output..  The data suggest Nabers will adapt quickly, or not at all.  Below is list of all the 1st rd WR(s) drafted between 2016 and 2021; as I'm sure you'll note, they produce quickly and remain statistically consistent, unless impacted by injuries and/or suspension. In lieu of a boring analysis, here are two general observations.

1.   The preponderance of 1st Round WRs show their abilities in their rookie seasons
2.   100% of 1st Round WRs showcase their abilities by year 2, or not at all.
a.   At this point, they're production is fairly steady 

Ja'Marr Chase (Pick 5):   
2021*   CIN   17   81   1455   18   13   AP ORoY-1, AP2, PB
2022*   CIN   12   87   1046   12   9   PB
2023*   CIN   16   100   1216   12.2   7   PB
                     
Jaylen Waddle (Pick 6):                     
2021   MIA   16   104   1015   9.8   6   
2022   MIA   17   75   1356   18.1   8   
2023   MIA   14   72   1014   14.1   4   
                     
DeVonta Smith (Pick 10):                  
2021   PHI   17   64   916   14.3   5   
2022   PHI   17   95   1196   12.6   7   
2023   PHI   16   81   1066   13.2   7   
                  
Kadarius Toney (Pick 20):            
2021   NYG   10   39   420   10.8   0   
2022   2TM   9   16   171   10.7   2   
   KAN   7   14   171   12.2   2   
   NYG   2   2   0   0   0   
2023   KAN   13   27   169   6.3   1   
                     
                     
Rashod Bateman  (Pick 27):                     
21   BAL   12   46   515   11.2   1   
2022   BAL   6   15   285   19   2   
2023   BAL   16   32   367   11.5   1   
                     
                     
Henry Ruggs (Pick 12):                  
20   LVR   13   26   452   17.4   2   
2021   LVR   7   24   469   19.5   2   
                     
Jerry Jeudy: (Pick 15)                     
20   DEN   16   52   856   16.5   3   
2021   DEN   10   38   467   12.3   0   
2022   DEN   15   67   972   14.5   6   
2023   DEN   16   54   758   14   2   
                     
CeeDee Lamb (Pick 17):                     
2020   DAL   16   74   935   12.6   5   
2021*   DAL   16   79   1102   13.9   6   PB
2022*   DAL   17   107   1359   12.7   9   AP2, PB
2023*+   DAL   17   135   1749   13   12   
                     
Jalen Reagor (Pick 21):               
2020   PHI   11   31   396   12.8   1   
2021   PHI   17   33   299   9.1   2   
2022   MIN   17   8   104   13   1   
2023   NWE   11   7   138   19.7   0   
                     
Justin Jefferson (Pick 22):               
2020*   MIN   16   88   1400   15.9   7   AP ORoY-2, AP2, PB
2021*   MIN   17   108   1616   15   10   AP2, PB
2022*+   MIN   17   128   1809   14.1   8   AP MVP-5, AP OPoY-1, AP1, PB
2023   MIN   10   68   1074   15.8   5   
                     
Brandon Aiyuk (Pick 25):                     
2020   SFO   12   60   748   12.5   5   
2021   SFO   17   56   826   14.8   5   
2022   SFO   17   78   1015   13   8   
2023   SFO   16   75   1342   17.9   7   
                     
Marquise Brown (Pick 25):      
2019   BAL   14   46   584   12.7   7   
2020   BAL   16   58   769   13.3   8   
2021   BAL   16   91   1008   11.1   6   
2022   ARI   12   67   709   10.6   3   
2023   ARI   14   51   574   11.3   4   
                     
N'Keal Harry (Pick 32):   
2019   NWE   7   12   105   8.8   2   
2020   NWE   14   33   309   9.4   2   
2021   NWE   12   12   184   15.3   0   
2022   CHI   7   7   116   16.6   1   
2023   MIN   9            0   
                     
D.J. Moore (Pick 24):
2018   CAR   16   55   788   14.3   2   
2019   CAR   15   87   1175   13.5   4   
2020   CAR   15   66   1193   18.1   4   
2021   CAR   17   93   1157   12.4   4   
2022   CAR   17   63   888   14.1   7   
2023   CHI   17   96   1364   14.2   8   
                     
Calvin Ridley (Pick 26):                  
2018   ATL   16   64   821   12.8   10   
2019   ATL   13   63   866   13.7   7   
2020   ATL   15   90   1374   15.3   9   AP2
2021   ATL   5   31   281   9.1   2   
2023   JAX   17   76   1016   13.4   8   
                     
Corey Davis (Pick 5):                  
2017   TEN   11   34   375   11   0   
2018   TEN   16   65   891   13.7   4   
2019   TEN   15   43   601   14   2   
2020   TEN   14   65   984   15.1   5   
2021   NYJ   9   34   492   14.5   4   
2022   NYJ   13   32   536   16.8   2   
                     
John Ross (Pick 9):                  
2017   CIN   3   0   0      0   
2018   CIN   13   21   210   10   7   
2019   CIN   8   28   506   18.1   3   
2020   CIN   3   2   17   8.5   0   
2021   NYG   10   11   224   20.4   1   
                     
Corey Coleman (Pick 15):                  
2016   CLE   10   33   413   12.5   3   
2017   CLE   9   23   305   13.3   2   
2018   NYG   8   5   71   14.2   0   
                     
Will Fuller (Pick 21):                  
2016   HOU   14   47   635   13.5   2   
2017   HOU   10   28   423   15.1   7   
2018   HOU   7   32   503   15.7   4   
2019   HOU   11   49   670   13.7   3   
2020   HOU   11   53   879   16.6   8   
2021   MIA   2   4   26   6.5   0   
                     
Josh Doctson (Pick 22):                  
2016   WAS   2   2   66   33   0   
2017   WAS   16   35   502   14.3   6   
2018   WAS   15   44   532   12.1   2   
2019   MIN   1            0   
                     
Laquon Treadwell (Pick 23):                  
2016   MIN   9   1   15   15   0   
2017   MIN   16   20   200   10   0   
2018   MIN   15   35   302   8.6   1   
2019   MIN   13   9   184   20.4   1   
2020   ATL   5   6   49   8.2   2   
2021   JAX   12   33   434   13.2   1   
2022   SEA   6   6   42   7   0   
2023   BAL   5   1   16   16   0

[Bob In PA]

king: Sadly I agree. That's the main reason why the "bust" rate for drafting 1st-round WR's is so darn high.

It's more dangerous to take a shot at a WR in the draft than QB... and taking a 1st-round QB is very dangerous.

Here's hoping it works out for Schoen and Daboll.

Bob

[kingm56]

Well said, Bob.  I have high hopes for this pick!  I hope you're well. 

[MightyGiants]

Well said, Bob.  I have high hopes for this pick!  I hope you're well. 

I was intrigued by Brook's and Jeremiah's small study suggesting top 10 WRs have a superior hit rate to the rest of round one.  Matt, any chance you can add when each prospect was drafted to your data? 

[Bob In PA]

I was intrigued by Brook's and Jeremiah's small study suggesting top 10 WRs have a superior hit rate to the rest of round one.  Matt, any chance you can add when each prospect was drafted to your data? 

Rich: Yes, I should have at least mentioned that high 1st-rounders have a better success rate. Bob

[kingm56]

I was intrigued by Brook's and Jeremiah's small study suggesting top 10 WRs have a superior hit rate to the rest of round one.  Matt, any chance you can add when each prospect was drafted to your data? 

Rich,

If you include 2022 and 2023 drafts, WR(s) picked in the top 10 have been 100% productive; all have at least 900+ yards in their rookie seasons.

Drake London
Garrett Wilson
Ja'Marr Chase
Jaylen Waddle
DeVonta Smith

You have to go all the way back to 2017 to find a WR drafted in the top 10 who's production failed to live up to their draft position; regardless, Corey Davis had a productive career with Tenn and NYJ.  Of the WRs draft in the Top 10 over the last decade, only John Ross could be considered an outright bust.

I suspect this entered into the Giants calculus; they simply couldn't afford to miss on another top 10 pick...Nabers may have been the safest pick in the draft.

BTW, Chris Olave drafted #11, is also a highly productive season.  In short, that's 6/6 for top 11 Wrs draft since 2017 (8 years), suggesting study is accurate.

[sxdxca38]

Just off the top of my head Amani Toomer didn't emerge until his 3rd year in the league, however that was twenty years ago.

I personally think Nabers should blossom right out of the gate, or within the first six weeks of the season.

[Bob In PA]

Just off the top of my head Amani Toomer didn't emerge until his 3rd year in the league, however that was twenty years ago.

I personally think Nabers should blossom right out of the gate, or within the first six weeks of the season.

sdx: A great point. It's actually IMO the difference between taking Nabers over Odunze. The former (as stated in another thread by someone) is likely to hit the ground running if he's ever going to hit at all. Odunze IMO is a lot like Toomer and it wouldn't surprise me if it takes him a while to grow into the NFL or if it takes his QB a while to learn that he really CAN be trusted (as his QB did in college). He doesn't get "wide open" often. You just have to throw him the damn ball and let him fight for it. I think his bust likelihood is the lowest of all three top WR's this year, but his ceiling is significantly lower than Nabers' and Harrison's. Bob

[Painter]

Just as quickly as OBJ, Jefferson and Chase.

Cheers!

[bamagiantfan]

I invite you to look at the best receiver in the SEC over the last 10 years and look at his track to production and success in the NFL. It is pretty close to "can't miss." You may also notice something interesting if you look at the top 3 lines on each list.

Yards

Player    Yds    Year    School
1    Malik Nabers*1569    2023    Louisiana State
1    Jalin Hyatt*    1267    2022    Tennessee
1    Jameson Williams*    1572    2021    Alabama
1    DeVonta Smith*    1856    2020    Alabama
1    Ja'Marr Chase*    1780    2019    Louisiana State
1    A.J. Brown    1320    2018    Mississippi
1    A.J. Brown    1252    2017    Mississippi
1    Josh Reynolds*    1039    2016    Texas A&M
1    Laquon Treadwell*    1153    2015    Mississippi
1    Amari Cooper*    1727    2014    Alabama

Receptions
Rk    Player    Rec    Year    School
1    Malik Nabers*    89    2023    Louisiana State
1    Malik Nabers*    72    2022    Louisiana State
1    Makai Polk*    105    2021    Mississippi State (Wan'dale Robinson finished with 104)
1    DeVonta Smith*    117    2020    Alabama
1    Justin Jefferson*    111    2019    Louisiana State
1    Kalija Lipscomb*    87    2018    Vanderbilt
1    Ryan Davis*    84    2017    Auburn
1    Christian Kirk*    83    2016    Texas A&M
1    Calvin Ridley*    89    2015    Alabama
1    Amari Cooper*    124    2014    Alabama

[kingm56]

I invite you to look at the best receiver in the SEC over the last 10 years and look at his track to production and success in the NFL. It is pretty close to "can't miss." You may also notice something interesting if you look at the top 3 lines on each list.

Yards

Player    Yds    Year    School
1    Malik Nabers*1569    2023    Louisiana State
1    Jalin Hyatt*    1267    2022    Tennessee
1    Jameson Williams*    1572    2021    Alabama
1    DeVonta Smith*    1856    2020    Alabama
1    Ja'Marr Chase*    1780    2019    Louisiana State
1    A.J. Brown    1320    2018    Mississippi
1    A.J. Brown    1252    2017    Mississippi
1    Josh Reynolds*    1039    2016    Texas A&M
1    Laquon Treadwell*    1153    2015    Mississippi
1    Amari Cooper*    1727    2014    Alabama

Receptions
Rk    Player    Rec    Year    School
1    Malik Nabers*    89    2023    Louisiana State
1    Malik Nabers*    72    2022    Louisiana State
1    Makai Polk*    105    2021    Mississippi State (Wan'dale Robinson finished with 104)
1    DeVonta Smith*    117    2020    Alabama
1    Justin Jefferson*    111    2019    Louisiana State
1    Kalija Lipscomb*    87    2018    Vanderbilt
1    Ryan Davis*    84    2017    Auburn
1    Christian Kirk*    83    2016    Texas A&M
1    Calvin Ridley*    89    2015    Alabama
1    Amari Cooper*    124    2014    Alabama

Really great input! 

[Bob In PA]

Really great input! 

king: I never fail to read his posts and highly recommend them. They are IMO too few and far between. Bob

[kingm56]

king: I never fail to read his posts and highly recommend them. They are IMO too few and far between. Bob

I agree, Bob. I also don't get enough of dumpster Dan.

[Bob In PA]

I agree, Bob. I also don't get enough of dumpster Dan.

king: Thanks for reminding me. Haven't heard from him recently. @LennG or @T200 or anyone else... have you? Bob

[T200]

king: Thanks for reminding me. Haven't heard from him recently. @LennG or @T200 or anyone else... have you? Bob

I have not. He hasn't been on since early March.