Using stats

[MightyGiants]

I found this Twitter exchange between Pat Leonard and Dan Schien rather interesting, because Dan did an excellent breakdown on how the use of stats can be misleading at times.


https://x.com/PLeonardNYDN/status/1705612098452021630?s=20


Dan Schneier
@DanSchneierNFL
*Not sure exactly the point or intention of this stat pull, so won't say anything on that, but Daboll gives the offense an obvious edge and there's a much larger sample size of this from 2022 than the three games in 2023 referenced here.*
Also: We're all guilty of doing this sometimes but this stat feels cherry picked and minuscule in scale. Does the "200 yard" landmark chosen here have any relevance? Are there trends for teams who acrue < 200?
Also, there's the context of these two games to account for:
Vs DAL: Two offenses have played DAL & both were dominated. NYG forced to go one dimensional for 80% of snaps. DL getting literal untouched pressures in the C and B gaps.
Vs SF, they had a guard playing LT for second time in his career, a LG who hadn't played since Covid & had some of the worst pass pro you'll see when he did, a rookie center making second career start, a Day 3 draft pick right RG who missed rookie year w torn ACL making second career start, a RT struggling ..Not even a magician could move the ball v SF with that OL + non Tier 1 QB.
From my seat: Daboll is so obviously the guy for the job to turn this offense into the best it's been since 2011 and possibly better. It probably won't reach anywhere near its ceiling with this current OLine. It may never with this group of WRs, RBs, TE or even QB. But Daboll will maximize his personnel every time.

[T200]

Everyone uses stats to support an argument, whether the argument is weak or strong. They add a little more weight but do very little to sway a person's position.

[MightyGiants]

Everyone uses stats to support an argument, whether the argument is weak or strong. They add a little more weight but do very little to sway a person's position.

That first comment strikes at the heart of the issue.   Stats shouldn't be used to support an argument.  They should be used to learn and gain insights.  Stats can be great tools when they are used carefully to gain knowledge and insights.  Assumptions are correctly made, and measures are carefully selected and justified.  Proper sample sizes are ensured, and other variables are either accounted for or eliminated.   

It's really just how one uses stats.   I will, from time to time, play with stats.  I will consider an aspect of football.  I will then study the stats to see what the stats reveal in terms of what I think about a situation.   I will make the assumptions, crunch the numbers, and see what results.  That is how stats should be used.   Unfortunately, far too many people will hold a position.  They will then seek out stats that they believe support that position.   That is the wrong way to use stats.

[JT39]

Pat Leonard sucks. He's mad that his Jets team is done for the year so he has to troll the Giants. Been that for a long time.

[DaveBrown74]

Everyone hates Leonard but the Giants have been terrible for a decade save for a couple years where we won with mirrors and were pretenders. So if he has been negative he hasn't been wrong. I think he's snarky, but at least he is willing to ask tough questions in press conferences. Some of these beat reporters tiptoe around elephant-in-the-room issues because they're scared of pissing off Pat Hanlon and Mara and potentially getting blackballed. I feel like Leonard at least isn't scared of his own shadow that way and takes the team to task. Fans who just want fluff piece type reporting about their team will definitely hate him though - no doubt about that.

[MightyGiants]

Everyone hates Leonard but the Giants have been terrible for a decade save for a couple years where we won with mirrors and were pretenders. So if he has been negative he hasn't been wrong. I think he's snarky, but at least he is willing to ask tough questions in press conferences. Some of these beat reporters tiptoe around elephant-in-the-room issues because they're scared of pissing off Pat Hanlon and Mara and potentially getting blackballed. I feel like Leonard at least isn't scared of his own shadow that way and takes the team to task. Fans who just want fluff piece type reporting about their team will definitely hate him though - no doubt about that.

Jeff,

I am curious, you are clearly defending Pat Leonard and seem to suggest he is better (or at least more honest than other beat writers).  What are your thoughts on his use of stats to create a message that suggests the offense has been worse under Daboll than it was under Shurmur or Judge/Garrett?

[T200]

That first comment strikes at the heart of the issue.   Stats shouldn't be used to support an argument.  They should be used to learn and gain insights.  Stats can be great tools when they are used carefully to gain knowledge and insights.  Assumptions are correctly made, and measures are carefully selected and justified.  Proper sample sizes are ensured, and other variables are either accounted for or eliminated.   

It's really just how one uses stats.   I will, from time to time, play with stats.  I will consider an aspect of football.  I will then study the stats to see what the stats reveal in terms of what I think about a situation.   I will make the assumptions, crunch the numbers, and see what results.  That is how stats should be used.   Unfortunately, far too many people will hold a position.  They will then seek out stats that they believe support that position.   That is the wrong way to use stats.

I take stats with a grain of salt. I trust my eyes.

Micah McFadden immediately comes to mind. What I saw from him against San Fran does not jibe with his PFF grade and 'goat' category. If he's going to produce like that all season, I couldn't care less what the stats say about him... I want him on the field.

[DaveBrown74]

Jeff,

I am curious, you are clearly defending Pat Leonard and seem to suggest he is better (or at least more honest than other beat writers).  What are your thoughts on his use of stats to create a message that suggests the offense has been worse under Daboll than it was under Shurmur or Judge/Garrett?

I just take it that he's simply pointing out how bad the offense has been so far this year. This statement:

"The Giants' offensive futility under Brian Daboll to start Year 2 is jarring"

is not false and certainly not unfair, and I don't in any way think he is making a big macro statement that Daboll is inferior to Schurmur or Judge/Garrett. I am pretty certain he doesn't think that. I take the tweet as him just simply commenting on the first three games of this season.

It's a given that the offense was terrible under Daboll's predecessors. That the Giant offense's start (which is only three games) is that bad or worse so far is fair to note, due to the extremity of it. I don't see a problem there. The guy is a reporter. Since when is it is his job to only report good things?

[DragonSoul]

Like most things if not all. Context matters, those who don't use it or like it tend to know their argument(s) are weak.

[Trench]

Far be it from me to agree with PFF, but what I saw from McFadden against San Fran was the same as them. I was not overly impressed as he lacked consistency.

Beat writers have left a lot to be desired since the years of Parcells. Gone are days where they truly pushed coaches and players hard. To me, they are like establishment media personalities looking for likes and retweets.

[sooners56]

I mean the Giants scored 0 points in game one and 12 points in game 3. Daboll has t done anything positive with the offense. It's the same old song and dance as the previous 12 years or so, Offense stinks!!!

[Rambo89]

I mean the Giants scored 0 points in game one and 12 points in game 3. Daboll has t done anything positive with the offense. It's the same old song and dance as the previous 12 years or so, Offense stinks!!!

They were a Top 10 offense in 2014-2015 but haven't been close to it since.

[aBladeOfBlue]

I found this Twitter exchange between Pat Leonard and Dan Schien rather interesting, because Dan did an excellent breakdown on how the use of stats can be misleading at times.


https://x.com/PLeonardNYDN/status/1705612098452021630?s=20

Daboll : Ball Security
Shurmur/Judge : Try to stay in the pocket till you are smashed or heave it so a WR can make a play on it. This mentality lead to more yardage, but more fumbles and more INTs. Sorry mister Leonard, I prefer Daboll. Even if the start of the year is not what we were hoping.

This Oline needs AT back and more snaps so it could finally gel somehow. There's no way around in my view.