The short answer is quickly, or never.
A few years ago, I ran a statistical analysis of every skilled position; my intent was to determine when you could expect a player, at a given position, to emerge. My thesis was the notion it takes 3-to-5 years to judge a player is outdated and inaccurate. During that effort, I realized WRs, more than any other skilled position, emerge quickly and have a fairly predictable output.. The data suggest Nabers will adapt quickly, or not at all. Below is list of all the 1st rd WR(s) drafted between 2016 and 2021; as I'm sure you'll note, they produce quickly and remain statistically consistent, unless impacted by injuries and/or suspension. In lieu of a boring analysis, here are two general observations.
1. The preponderance of 1st Round WRs show their abilities in their rookie seasons
2. 100% of 1st Round WRs showcase their abilities by year 2, or not at all.
a. At this point, they're production is fairly steady
Ja'Marr Chase (Pick 5):
2021* CIN 17 81 1455 18 13 AP ORoY-1, AP2, PB
2022* CIN 12 87 1046 12 9 PB
2023* CIN 16 100 1216 12.2 7 PB
Jaylen Waddle (Pick 6):
2021 MIA 16 104 1015 9.8 6
2022 MIA 17 75 1356 18.1 8
2023 MIA 14 72 1014 14.1 4
DeVonta Smith (Pick 10):
2021 PHI 17 64 916 14.3 5
2022 PHI 17 95 1196 12.6 7
2023 PHI 16 81 1066 13.2 7
Kadarius Toney (Pick 20):
2021 NYG 10 39 420 10.8 0
2022 2TM 9 16 171 10.7 2
KAN 7 14 171 12.2 2
NYG 2 2 0 0 0
2023 KAN 13 27 169 6.3 1
Rashod Bateman (Pick 27):
21 BAL 12 46 515 11.2 1
2022 BAL 6 15 285 19 2
2023 BAL 16 32 367 11.5 1
Henry Ruggs (Pick 12):
20 LVR 13 26 452 17.4 2
2021 LVR 7 24 469 19.5 2
Jerry Jeudy: (Pick 15)
20 DEN 16 52 856 16.5 3
2021 DEN 10 38 467 12.3 0
2022 DEN 15 67 972 14.5 6
2023 DEN 16 54 758 14 2
CeeDee Lamb (Pick 17):
2020 DAL 16 74 935 12.6 5
2021* DAL 16 79 1102 13.9 6 PB
2022* DAL 17 107 1359 12.7 9 AP2, PB
2023*+ DAL 17 135 1749 13 12
Jalen Reagor (Pick 21):
2020 PHI 11 31 396 12.8 1
2021 PHI 17 33 299 9.1 2
2022 MIN 17 8 104 13 1
2023 NWE 11 7 138 19.7 0
Justin Jefferson (Pick 22):
2020* MIN 16 88 1400 15.9 7 AP ORoY-2, AP2, PB
2021* MIN 17 108 1616 15 10 AP2, PB
2022*+ MIN 17 128 1809 14.1 8 AP MVP-5, AP OPoY-1, AP1, PB
2023 MIN 10 68 1074 15.8 5
Brandon Aiyuk (Pick 25):
2020 SFO 12 60 748 12.5 5
2021 SFO 17 56 826 14.8 5
2022 SFO 17 78 1015 13 8
2023 SFO 16 75 1342 17.9 7
Marquise Brown (Pick 25):
2019 BAL 14 46 584 12.7 7
2020 BAL 16 58 769 13.3 8
2021 BAL 16 91 1008 11.1 6
2022 ARI 12 67 709 10.6 3
2023 ARI 14 51 574 11.3 4
N'Keal Harry (Pick 32):
2019 NWE 7 12 105 8.8 2
2020 NWE 14 33 309 9.4 2
2021 NWE 12 12 184 15.3 0
2022 CHI 7 7 116 16.6 1
2023 MIN 9 0
D.J. Moore (Pick 24):
2018 CAR 16 55 788 14.3 2
2019 CAR 15 87 1175 13.5 4
2020 CAR 15 66 1193 18.1 4
2021 CAR 17 93 1157 12.4 4
2022 CAR 17 63 888 14.1 7
2023 CHI 17 96 1364 14.2 8
Calvin Ridley (Pick 26):
2018 ATL 16 64 821 12.8 10
2019 ATL 13 63 866 13.7 7
2020 ATL 15 90 1374 15.3 9 AP2
2021 ATL 5 31 281 9.1 2
2023 JAX 17 76 1016 13.4 8
Corey Davis (Pick 5):
2017 TEN 11 34 375 11 0
2018 TEN 16 65 891 13.7 4
2019 TEN 15 43 601 14 2
2020 TEN 14 65 984 15.1 5
2021 NYJ 9 34 492 14.5 4
2022 NYJ 13 32 536 16.8 2
John Ross (Pick 9):
2017 CIN 3 0 0 0
2018 CIN 13 21 210 10 7
2019 CIN 8 28 506 18.1 3
2020 CIN 3 2 17 8.5 0
2021 NYG 10 11 224 20.4 1
Corey Coleman (Pick 15):
2016 CLE 10 33 413 12.5 3
2017 CLE 9 23 305 13.3 2
2018 NYG 8 5 71 14.2 0
Will Fuller (Pick 21):
2016 HOU 14 47 635 13.5 2
2017 HOU 10 28 423 15.1 7
2018 HOU 7 32 503 15.7 4
2019 HOU 11 49 670 13.7 3
2020 HOU 11 53 879 16.6 8
2021 MIA 2 4 26 6.5 0
Josh Doctson (Pick 22):
2016 WAS 2 2 66 33 0
2017 WAS 16 35 502 14.3 6
2018 WAS 15 44 532 12.1 2
2019 MIN 1 0
Laquon Treadwell (Pick 23):
2016 MIN 9 1 15 15 0
2017 MIN 16 20 200 10 0
2018 MIN 15 35 302 8.6 1
2019 MIN 13 9 184 20.4 1
2020 ATL 5 6 49 8.2 2
2021 JAX 12 33 434 13.2 1
2022 SEA 6 6 42 7 0
2023 BAL 5 1 16 16 0
A few years ago, I ran a statistical analysis of every skilled position; my intent was to determine when you could expect a player, at a given position, to emerge. My thesis was the notion it takes 3-to-5 years to judge a player is outdated and inaccurate. During that effort, I realized WRs, more than any other skilled position, emerge quickly and have a fairly predictable output.. The data suggest Nabers will adapt quickly, or not at all. Below is list of all the 1st rd WR(s) drafted between 2016 and 2021; as I'm sure you'll note, they produce quickly and remain statistically consistent, unless impacted by injuries and/or suspension. In lieu of a boring analysis, here are two general observations.
1. The preponderance of 1st Round WRs show their abilities in their rookie seasons
2. 100% of 1st Round WRs showcase their abilities by year 2, or not at all.
a. At this point, they're production is fairly steady
Ja'Marr Chase (Pick 5):
2021* CIN 17 81 1455 18 13 AP ORoY-1, AP2, PB
2022* CIN 12 87 1046 12 9 PB
2023* CIN 16 100 1216 12.2 7 PB
Jaylen Waddle (Pick 6):
2021 MIA 16 104 1015 9.8 6
2022 MIA 17 75 1356 18.1 8
2023 MIA 14 72 1014 14.1 4
DeVonta Smith (Pick 10):
2021 PHI 17 64 916 14.3 5
2022 PHI 17 95 1196 12.6 7
2023 PHI 16 81 1066 13.2 7
Kadarius Toney (Pick 20):
2021 NYG 10 39 420 10.8 0
2022 2TM 9 16 171 10.7 2
KAN 7 14 171 12.2 2
NYG 2 2 0 0 0
2023 KAN 13 27 169 6.3 1
Rashod Bateman (Pick 27):
21 BAL 12 46 515 11.2 1
2022 BAL 6 15 285 19 2
2023 BAL 16 32 367 11.5 1
Henry Ruggs (Pick 12):
20 LVR 13 26 452 17.4 2
2021 LVR 7 24 469 19.5 2
Jerry Jeudy: (Pick 15)
20 DEN 16 52 856 16.5 3
2021 DEN 10 38 467 12.3 0
2022 DEN 15 67 972 14.5 6
2023 DEN 16 54 758 14 2
CeeDee Lamb (Pick 17):
2020 DAL 16 74 935 12.6 5
2021* DAL 16 79 1102 13.9 6 PB
2022* DAL 17 107 1359 12.7 9 AP2, PB
2023*+ DAL 17 135 1749 13 12
Jalen Reagor (Pick 21):
2020 PHI 11 31 396 12.8 1
2021 PHI 17 33 299 9.1 2
2022 MIN 17 8 104 13 1
2023 NWE 11 7 138 19.7 0
Justin Jefferson (Pick 22):
2020* MIN 16 88 1400 15.9 7 AP ORoY-2, AP2, PB
2021* MIN 17 108 1616 15 10 AP2, PB
2022*+ MIN 17 128 1809 14.1 8 AP MVP-5, AP OPoY-1, AP1, PB
2023 MIN 10 68 1074 15.8 5
Brandon Aiyuk (Pick 25):
2020 SFO 12 60 748 12.5 5
2021 SFO 17 56 826 14.8 5
2022 SFO 17 78 1015 13 8
2023 SFO 16 75 1342 17.9 7
Marquise Brown (Pick 25):
2019 BAL 14 46 584 12.7 7
2020 BAL 16 58 769 13.3 8
2021 BAL 16 91 1008 11.1 6
2022 ARI 12 67 709 10.6 3
2023 ARI 14 51 574 11.3 4
N'Keal Harry (Pick 32):
2019 NWE 7 12 105 8.8 2
2020 NWE 14 33 309 9.4 2
2021 NWE 12 12 184 15.3 0
2022 CHI 7 7 116 16.6 1
2023 MIN 9 0
D.J. Moore (Pick 24):
2018 CAR 16 55 788 14.3 2
2019 CAR 15 87 1175 13.5 4
2020 CAR 15 66 1193 18.1 4
2021 CAR 17 93 1157 12.4 4
2022 CAR 17 63 888 14.1 7
2023 CHI 17 96 1364 14.2 8
Calvin Ridley (Pick 26):
2018 ATL 16 64 821 12.8 10
2019 ATL 13 63 866 13.7 7
2020 ATL 15 90 1374 15.3 9 AP2
2021 ATL 5 31 281 9.1 2
2023 JAX 17 76 1016 13.4 8
Corey Davis (Pick 5):
2017 TEN 11 34 375 11 0
2018 TEN 16 65 891 13.7 4
2019 TEN 15 43 601 14 2
2020 TEN 14 65 984 15.1 5
2021 NYJ 9 34 492 14.5 4
2022 NYJ 13 32 536 16.8 2
John Ross (Pick 9):
2017 CIN 3 0 0 0
2018 CIN 13 21 210 10 7
2019 CIN 8 28 506 18.1 3
2020 CIN 3 2 17 8.5 0
2021 NYG 10 11 224 20.4 1
Corey Coleman (Pick 15):
2016 CLE 10 33 413 12.5 3
2017 CLE 9 23 305 13.3 2
2018 NYG 8 5 71 14.2 0
Will Fuller (Pick 21):
2016 HOU 14 47 635 13.5 2
2017 HOU 10 28 423 15.1 7
2018 HOU 7 32 503 15.7 4
2019 HOU 11 49 670 13.7 3
2020 HOU 11 53 879 16.6 8
2021 MIA 2 4 26 6.5 0
Josh Doctson (Pick 22):
2016 WAS 2 2 66 33 0
2017 WAS 16 35 502 14.3 6
2018 WAS 15 44 532 12.1 2
2019 MIN 1 0
Laquon Treadwell (Pick 23):
2016 MIN 9 1 15 15 0
2017 MIN 16 20 200 10 0
2018 MIN 15 35 302 8.6 1
2019 MIN 13 9 184 20.4 1
2020 ATL 5 6 49 8.2 2
2021 JAX 12 33 434 13.2 1
2022 SEA 6 6 42 7 0
2023 BAL 5 1 16 16 0