Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Bob In PA on February 20, 2024, 09:00:00 AMRich: Do you view the above as a good thing or a bad thing (regarding McCarthy vs. the other QB's shown)? Bob

Bob,

Since I listed the number grades, I thought simply adding them up would be the easiest way to develop a team support factor.   As you can see, McCarthy had the 2nd least support among the top 6 QB prospects.  Factor in the other stat I posted (how strong the defenses faced), and it's pretty clear that McCarthy's production was not inflated (compared to the other QBs) in terms of support and opposition faced; if anything, he had to work harder.

Maye - 144.5
McCarthy - 156.5
Williams - 159.8
Daniels- 165.1
Penix- 168.1
Nix - 180.7

Quote from: H-Town G-Fan on February 02, 2024, 11:49:47 AM"Second-round grade" (as Brugler notes) taken at #6 overall... recipe for disaster for the kid and the franchise.

In less than 3 weeks, it went from "second-round grade" (from Brugler) to 24th overall prospect and


24 J.J. McCarthy
QB
MICHIGAN
Height:
6-3
Weight:
196
Class:
Jr.

No, the Michigan offense didn't regularly lean on McCarthy to push the ball downfield with his arm. But McCarthy executed when his team needed a play, which often came on third or fourth down. He has the arm and athletic talent that will translate well to the pro game, and his intangibles are off the charts.

Many roll their eyes at win-loss records for quarterbacks, but NFL teams care about that stat, and McCarthy finished 27-1 as a starter at Michigan with a national championship. (He also went 36-2 in high school and won a state title.)

Although McCarthy is far from a polished product, it is easy to see why an NFL team would spend a first-round pick to invest in his future.

https://theathletic.com/5270481/2024/02/13/nfl-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-100/

Quote from: EliWasrobbed on February 19, 2024, 11:09:53 PMSame question to you, given Michigan had THE best defense, run game and Oline in the country, do you believe Drake Maye would have better stats than JJ McCarthy had at Michigan? Daniels too.

No because Jim Harbaugh would have played Drake Maye the same way he played JJ McCarthy.

Michigan had a dominating running game and a lights out defense.  JH said he wanted his goal was a relatively balanced run/pass offense.  With the success he had running the ball, it tipped to the running game.  Harbaugh has repeatedly said during his time at Michigan that northern teams have to run the ball as the weather will worsen.  Unlike many college coaches last season, he did not have to worry about his defense giving up 30+ points per game so he needed to dial up his offense. 

Here are Michigan vs opponent at halftime and at the end of the 3rd quarter:

Game 1 - 23-0, then 30-0
Game 2 - 21-0, then 35-0
Game 3 - 14-6, then 31-6
Game 4 - 14-7, then 24-7
Game 5 - 28-0, then 35-0
Game 6 - 24-10, then 45-10
Game 7 - 21-7, then 38-7
Game 8 - 28-0, then 42-0
Game 9 - 20-6, then 27-6
Game 10 - 14-9, then 17-9
Game 11 - 23-10, then 29-24
Game 12 - 14-10, then 24-17
Game 13 - 10-0, then 20-0;
Game 14 - 13-10, then 13-10;
Game 15 - 17-10, then 20-13;

Look at those scores and tell me if you were a head coach, would you be thinking you need to pass it 45 times and put up 40 points to win?   

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 20, 2024, 09:25:33 AMIn less than 3 weeks, it went from "second-round grade" (from Brugler) to 24th overall prospect and


24 J.J. McCarthy
QB
MICHIGAN
Height:
6-3
Weight:
196
Class:
Jr.

No, the Michigan offense didn't regularly lean on McCarthy to push the ball downfield with his arm. But McCarthy executed when his team needed a play, which often came on third or fourth down. He has the arm and athletic talent that will translate well to the pro game, and his intangibles are off the charts.

Many roll their eyes at win-loss records for quarterbacks, but NFL teams care about that stat, and McCarthy finished 27-1 as a starter at Michigan with a national championship. (He also went 36-2 in high school and won a state title.)

Although McCarthy is far from a polished product, it is easy to see why an NFL team would spend a first-round pick to invest in his future.

https://theathletic.com/5270481/2024/02/13/nfl-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-100/

The thing a lot of posters and fans don't realize is that the media and the beat writers are typically a couple months behind on info. JJ has likely be a top 10-15 pick the last half of this past season but the beat writers didn't start to find out until the season was over and they start asking the right questions and information slowly trickles in. Just because he's shooting up draft boards now doesn't mean he hasn't been there with NFL teams for months.

Couple extra stats for you guys since we love stats around here.

Caleb Williams is supposed to be this big play machine right, he innovates and makes chunk plays on the move.

Caleb Williams big time throw % 6.2
JJ Mccarthy big time throw % 6.0

Cmp% out of scrambles, which not only go to the players eyes and progressions but so much more

JJ cmp% out of scrambles led all draft able qbs with 71.4% cmp

Daniels 46.7%
Maye 36.8%
Williams 41.8%

Redzone passing stats
JJ 63% 9Tds 2Int
Williams 63% 12 tds
Maye 47.3% 12td 1Int

McCarthy was also 24/44 on balls traveling beyond 20 yards in the air with 10tds

His 54.5% cmp% on balls traveling 20 or more air yards is 2nd in this class to Jayden Daniels at 63.6%

Either the bar for mediocre is changing or people's takes on prospects are getting lazy, because all I continue to see is a guy that wins, and statiscally can match any Qb in the country in almost every metric despite not playing a full game until week 9.

Quote from: kingm56 on February 20, 2024, 07:31:39 AMDo you believe QB play/ability impacts the line performance, or is only reverse true?

To some extent it can but it's my belief that a team cannot hope to be good without an adequate line.  Can you run the ball when everyone knows you're going to? Can you protect when everyone knows you're throwing?  The Giants line has come up woefully short in these areas far too long. IMO

Quote from: Rosehill Jimmy on February 20, 2024, 10:34:21 AMTo some extent it can but it's my belief that a team cannot hope to be good without an adequate line.  Can you run the ball when everyone knows you're going to? Can you protect when everyone knows you're throwing?  The Giants line has come up woefully short in these areas far too long. IMO

I agree 100% and glad you used the word adequate for the OL.  The Giants have not had even an adequate line in years.  And, getting an adequate is way more doable than a great especially in the short run.  Put a good QB who can threaten a defense with a good WR who can threaten a defense and a playcaller who can do the same behind an adequate line and we can win

Jeremiah just put out his second mock.   He has no trades.  So he has the Giants drafting Daniels at 6 and JJ going to the Falcons at 8.


https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2024-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-four-quarterbacks-selected-in-first-eight-picks


https://x.com/NFLGameDay/status/1759976409307455756?s=20

https://x.com/FB_FilmAnalysis/status/1759987093282140363?s=20

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 20, 2024, 09:08:25 AMit's pretty clear that McCarthy's production was not inflated (compared to the other QBs) in terms of support and opposition faced; if anything, he had to work harder.

Rich: That was my conclusion. He was peddling uphill, not to the extent Jones did at Duke, but it was still uphill.

If anything, there is a strong possibility he was actually held back a bit by the combination of having had a very strong run-game, combined with having a head coach who values the college run-game as being of the utmost importance, especially in big games against the best teams.

I'm warming to McCarthy a bit. More importantly, I can almost guarantee Mara would love to have an Irishman (if not an actual "Fighting Irish"-man lol) as the QB of his team.

So IMO it's likely there's some truth behind the idea that the Giants are interested in drafting McCarthy.

Beware: if they do take him without first trading down in round one, there will be howls in certain quarters of the media (and probably here too) about how the same thing happened with Jones (most people felt they could have gotten Jones a whole lot lower and should have risked a trade down).

Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on February 20, 2024, 12:39:10 PMRich: That was my conclusion. He was peddling uphill, not to the extent Jones did at Duke, but it was still uphill.

If anything, there is a strong possibility he was actually held back a bit by the combination of having had a very strong run-game, combined with having a head coach who values the college run-game as of the utmost importance, especially in big games against the best teams.

I'm warming to McCarthy a bit. More importantly, I can almost guarantee Mara would love to have an Irishman (if not an actual "Fighting Irish"-man lol) as the QB of his team.

So IMO it's likely there's some truth behind the idea that the Giants are interested in drafting McCarthy.

Beware: if they do take him without first trading down in round one, there will be howls in certain quarters of the media (and probably here too) about how the same thing happened with Jones (most people felt they could have gotten Jones a whole lot lower and should have risked a trade down).

Bob

Bob,

I remember Phil Simms once talked about the challenges of being a "game manager."   Fans seem to think being a game manager is easy.  Phil Simms pointed out that it's actually much harder.  He made two main points on why it's harder:

1)  It's easier for QBs to throw on first and second down compared to 3rd down (or 4th down).   Game managers tend to throw more passes on third downs than other QBs.

2) Game mangers tend not to throw as many passes.  So when they do through, they have less room for error.  When you are passing like the mad bomber if you miss on a throw it's no big deal; you get them next time.  Once your opportunities are limited there isn't a lot of room for error on any given pass.

Quote from: Bob In PA on February 20, 2024, 12:39:10 PMRich: That was my conclusion. He was peddling uphill, not to the extent Jones did at Duke, but it was still uphill.

If anything, there is a strong possibility he was actually held back a bit by the combination of having had a very strong run-game, combined with having a head coach who values the college run-game as being of the utmost importance, especially in big games against the best teams.

I'm warming to McCarthy a bit. More importantly, I can almost guarantee Mara would love to have an Irishman (if not an actual "Fighting Irish"-man lol) as the QB of his team.

So IMO it's likely there's some truth behind the idea that the Giants are interested in drafting McCarthy.

Beware: if they do take him without first trading down in round one, there will be howls in certain quarters of the media (and probably here too) about how the same thing happened with Jones (most people felt they could have gotten Jones a whole lot lower and should have risked a trade down).

Bob

Bob- I hope you are totally wrong about Mara and wanting an Irishman.  Please say that you are joking.  I'm guessing that Schoen will run his choice by Mara but the only part of the draft I want Mara to be involved is having his picture taken and writing a check.

To your point about JJ being held back by his coach, the flip side of that is that being that Harbaugh was a QB, and possibly or probably a QB coach somewhere in his resume, and JJ was taught how to throw correctly and whatever flaws he may have had, were coached out of him. 

As an aside, with 2 months before the draft and the all of the work that goes into the selection, combines, pro days, meetings, etc, the level of specificity that people are showing about the players and where they are taken is way overboard and borderline comical. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 20, 2024, 12:43:03 PMBob,

I remember Phil Simms once talked about the challenges of being a "game manager."  Fans seem to think being a game manager is easy.  Phil Simms pointed out that it's actually much harder.  He made two main points on why it's harder:

1)  It's easier for QBs to throw on first and second down compared to 3rd down (or 4th down).  Game managers tend to throw more passes on third downs than other QBs.

2) Game mangers tend not to throw as many passes.  So when they do through, they have less room for error.  When you are passing like the mad bomber if you miss on a throw it's no big deal; you get them next time.  Once your opportunities are limited there isn't a lot of room for error on any given pass.

Rich: Agree 100 percent again. Some of that is on the coaching staff.  I guy doesn't come to the NFL to be a game manager.  Some coaches (for various reasons, including lack of complete faith in the QB and predisposition to take the conservative approach to winning) are at least partially responsible (if not fully responsible) for a guy being tagged with the game manager role (as opposed to the "gunslinger" style). Bob

Quote from: nb587 on February 20, 2024, 12:52:33 PMBob- I hope you are totally wrong about Mara and wanting an Irishman.  Please say that you are joking.  I'm guessing that Schoen will run his choice by Mara but the only part of the draft I want Mara to be involved is having his picture taken and writing a check.

To your point about JJ being held back by his coach, the flip side of that is that being that Harbaugh was a QB, and possibly or probably a QB coach somewhere in his resume, and JJ was taught how to throw correctly and whatever flaws he may have had, were coached out of him. 

As an aside, with 2 months before the draft and the all of the work that goes into the selection, combines, pro days, meetings, etc, the level of specificity that people are showing about the players and where they are taken is way overboard and borderline comical. 

nb: Although I'm not joking, the majority of the "proof" of my belief is anecdotal and through inference, rather than by means of concrete evidence. Bob

Quote from: Bob In PA on February 20, 2024, 12:55:57 PMRich: Agree 100 percent again. Some of that is on the coaching staff.  I guy doesn't come to the NFL to be a game manager.  Some coaches (for various reasons, including lack of complete faith in the QB and predisposition to take the conservative approach to winning) are at least partially responsible (if not fully responsible) for a guy being tagged with the game manager role (as opposed to the "gunslinger" style). Bob

It's been traced back to the great college FB coach Darrell Royal with the following quote.  "Three Things Can Happen When You Pass, and Two of Them Are Bad."

Now, you could further add that running the ball tends to help the defense because it reduces the amount of time the defense needs to be on the field.

The NFL has become a passing league, owing a great deal to rule changes.  Yet, in these playoffs, many of the games were won by QBs playing a game-manager role rather than this QB putting up big numbers.

Consider the winners in the SB, Conference, and Division games and how often the winning QB put up 300+ yards

Super Bowl- Mahomes 333 yards (but this was done in 5 quarters rather than the usual 4

Conference

AFC- Mahomes 241 yards
NFC- Purdy 267 yards

Division

Balt- Jackson 152 yards
KC- Mahomes 215 yards
49ers- Purdy 252 yards
Lions- Goff 287

So you can see in the playoffs, even with some of the best QBs available, coaches opted to put them in a game manager role.


I say all that to support my assertion that all things being equal, most HCs still favor running over passing.

Quote from: MightyGiants on February 20, 2024, 01:19:50 PMIt's been traced back to the great college FB coach Darrell Royal with the following quote.  "Three Things Can Happen When You Pass, and Two of Them Are Bad."

Now, you could further add that running the ball tends to help the defense because it reduces the amount of time the defense needs to be on the field.

The NFL has become a passing league, owing a great deal to rule changes.  Yet, in these playoffs, many of the games were won by QBs playing a game-manager role rather than this QB putting up big numbers.

Consider the winners in the SB, Conference, and Division games and how often the winning QB put up 300+ yards

Super Bowl- Mahomes 333 yards (but this was done in 5 quarters rather than the usual 4

Conference

AFC- Mahomes 241 yards
NFC- Purdy 267 yards

Division

Balt- Jackson 152 yards
KC- Mahomes 215 yards
49ers- Purdy 252 yards
Lions- Goff 287

So you can see in the playoffs, even with some of the best QBs available, coaches opted to put them in a game manager role.


I say all that to support my assertion that all things being equal, most HCs still favor running over passing.

My counter to that is that this isn't bowling or golf... sports where there is no opposition. The teams on the other side of the field are doing their best to limit what the offense does.

Scoring and offensive production are generally lower in the playoffs than the regular season. Offensive teams typically get a little more conservative while defenses get a little more stout.

The 49ers essentially shut down Pacheco and the Chiefs' running game. Mahomes was definitely looking to throw (46 attempts) but the 9ers defense played great almost the entire game. Mahomes even ran 9 times.