The most important draft for the NY Giants in 20 years. It will determine the fate of this team for the next decade.
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 20, 2024, 07:12:23 PMThe most important draft for the NY Giants in 20 years. It will determine the fate of this team for the next decade.
Ed: I don't believe that.
They have six picks. Unless you see them getting a world-beating WR in the first round and pulling a rabbit out of their hat by trading up to the very-high-2nd or low-1st for one of the QB "leftovers" (who then turns out to stun the football world by becoming a phenomenal star), there is no pivot point to make such a statement. All drafts are important, but IMO this one is no more important than any other.
It sounds like you think the decision to go QB or WR in round one (accompanied by the decision to trade up or not trade up for a QB) are pivotal. I think the odds are very long for that scenario. I might see it differently if they ALREADY HAD Pick Three, but the fact is that they lack the draft capital to trade up without giving up one of their few star (or near-star) players in addition to future picks (and they just can't afford to do that right now, IMO).
Bob
I think it could be the most important draft in 20 years if they land a franchise QB who can lead this franchise for the next 15-plus years. If they don't, it could still be an impactful draft, but I'm not sure it will be the most important in two decades.
You could argue the 2018 draft was the most important in the sense that the Giants drafted Barkley instead of Josh Allen. Of course, we don't know what sort of QB Allen would have become if he had developed in the environment the Giants provided.
In terms of impactful drafts, most involved hits throughout the draft at much higher hit rates. Rarely have such historic drafts been identified at the time they were made.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/04/06/2023-nfl-draft-greatest-classes-for-every-team
Quote from: DaveBrown74 on April 21, 2024, 05:47:48 AMI think it could be the most important draft in 20 years if they land a franchise QB who can lead this franchise for the next 15-plus years. If they don't, it could still be an impactful draft, but I'm not sure it will be the most important in two decades.
If they draft the wrong QB that could set them back another five years and impact the coaching staff. Then how do they replace that QB. If he is the right QB, it could be a decision that carries them to a championship. If they don't draft a QB, or one later in the draft, they will be tied to Jones for a year or even the length of his contract. Jones and Lock might be a picture definition of QB hell. The 2025 QB class may be just poor enough to let them hang on to Jones if he somehow wins 8-9 games this year. Then it might get into their heads that he's the guy.
The drafting of Eli while they had a good QB in Collins was a decision that impacted them for the life of his career.
All this may seem like a may this or could be that, however the scenarios are not outside the realm of actual possibilities.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 07:15:06 AMYou could argue the 2018 draft was the most important in the sense that the Giants drafted Barkley instead of Josh Allen.
Rich: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're NOT saying it has become known that the Giants' choice that year was between Barkley & Josh Allen. In conjunction with the original post by
@Ed Vette you are giving an example of how one key decision in a draft (espeically if it involves a QB as one of the options) could theoretically have made a huge difference to the Giants' fortunes (and in their overall performance since the year that decision was made). Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 21, 2024, 09:48:31 AMRich: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're NOT saying it has become known that the Giants' choice that year was between Barkley & Josh Allen. In conjunction with the original post by @Ed Vette you are giving an example of how one key decision in a draft (espeically if it involves a QB as one of the options) could theoretically have made a huge difference to the Giants' fortunes (and in their overall performance since the year that decision was made). Bob
Bob, I made my declaration with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. I appreciate at the time the choice I illustrated was not the one being debated.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 07:15:06 AMIn terms of impactful drafts, most involved hits throughout the draft at much higher hit rates. Rarely have such historic drafts been identified at the time they were made.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/04/06/2023-nfl-draft-greatest-classes-for-every-team
Sadly, and I mean sadly, here's the conclusion about the Giants for those who don't want to look it up:
Despite their illustrious history, the Giants are without a signature draft class. Still, in 1956, New York found a Hall of Famer who inspired a documentary in linebacker Sam Huff. Huff, who earned enshrinement into the Hall of Fame, was arguably the most iconic defensive player of his era. Alongside Huff, the Giants also selected defensive end Jim Katcavage in the fourth round, who made two first-team All-Pro appearances and is credited with 92.5 unofficial sacks.
At least we have a handful of Super Bowl wins, but how sad is it that our favorite team has never nailed a draft in 100 YEARS of drafting? Does anyone here want to be next-in-line after Schoen? lol
Bob
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 21, 2024, 10:16:18 AMBob, I made my declaration with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. I appreciate at the time the choice I illustrated was not the one being debated.
Rich: To my recollection, it indeed WAS for one of our members... the guy who started this thread!!! Bob
T minus 4.
I can't believe you guys don't feel the significance and the excite level of this draft. Not since the 2018 draft. The impact? In 2018 the Giants still had Eli. In 2024, they are riding on Daniel Jones.
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 21, 2024, 04:03:48 PMT minus 4.
I can't believe you guys don't feel the significance and the excite level of this draft. Not since the 2018 draft. The impact? In 2018 the Giants still had Eli. In 2024, they are riding on Daniel Jones.
Ed: I get it but IMO too many of us here view this year's draft in a QB-centric manner, while I personally tend to think the Giants will draft no QB at all. With only six picks (barring some move that lands us one or two extra) IMO it's at least highly doubtful they will even take one on day three. In summation, rather than getting excited, I'm "steeling" myself for the aftermath here if my prediction is correct. ~X( Bob
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 21, 2024, 04:22:57 PMEd: I get it but IMO too many of us here view this year's draft in a QB-centric manner, while I personally tend to think the Giants will draft no QB at all. With only six picks (barring some move that lands us one or two extra) IMO it's at least highly doubtful they will even take one on day three. In summation, rather than getting excited, I'm "steeling" myself for the aftermath here if my prediction is correct. ~X( Bob
That's the point, the overall dynamic is something we haven't seen in quite some time. It parallels 2004 and 2018 but the importance mirrors 2004.
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 21, 2024, 04:03:48 PMT minus 4.
I can't believe you guys don't feel the significance and the excite level of this draft. Not since the 2018 draft. The impact? In 2018 the Giants still had Eli. In 2024, they are riding on Daniel Jones.
It's significance won't be felt for at least two years. Whatever direction they take won't effect next season. They will struggle either way. If they pick a QB or trade up and that QB fails, it will hurt beyond 2025. If they pass on a QB and one who they could have gambled to get, someone past the first two, and that someone turns out to be a star, while the Giants languish in QB hell for years, this draft also will be looked at as an abysmal failure. Picking or not picking one of the three WR prospects will not effect the team nearly as much as the QB decision. Receivers just don't have close to the impact a QB has. But time will tell starting in 2025.
Quote from: Bob In PA on April 21, 2024, 10:16:42 AMSadly, and I mean sadly, here's the conclusion about the Giants for those who don't want to look it up:
Despite their illustrious history, the Giants are without a signature draft class. Still, in 1956, New York found a Hall of Famer who inspired a documentary in linebacker Sam Huff. Huff, who earned enshrinement into the Hall of Fame, was arguably the most iconic defensive player of his era. Alongside Huff, the Giants also selected defensive end Jim Katcavage in the fourth round, who made two first-team All-Pro appearances and is credited with 92.5 unofficial sacks.
At least we have a handful of Super Bowl wins, but how sad is it that our favorite team has never nailed a draft in 100 YEARS of drafting? Does anyone here want to be next-in-line after Schoen? lol
Bob
I don't know if I agree with this. The 2007 draft directly caused the team to win the Superbowl as every single player heavily contributed.
Going back a couple of years, the 2005 draft was light on picks but gave us Brandon Jacobs, Corey Webster, and Justin Tuck. That was a monster draft too.
Quote from: AYM on April 21, 2024, 06:42:40 PMI don't know if I agree with this. The 2007 draft directly caused the team to win the Superbowl as every single player heavily contributed.
Going back a couple of years, the 2005 draft was light on picks but gave us Brandon Jacobs, Corey Webster, and Justin Tuck. That was a monster draft too.
AY: Great observation. I can agree that that draft was pivotal in producing a championship. But before that draft IMO Giants were already 'over the hump' and just needed to make solid selections (which they did) without trying to his any home runs, in order to finish the job of putting a Super-Bowl-capable squad around Eli. Bob
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 21, 2024, 04:33:32 PMThat's the point, the overall dynamic is something we haven't seen in quite some time. It parallels 2004 and 2018 but the importance mirrors 2004.
I think the dynamic of this draft is twofold: 1) we need to fill about 8 holes with only 6 picks, and 2) Schoen has played the pre-draft period like a world-class poker player. No one has a hint of a clue what he's planning to do. That fosters anxiety and hope for us. One thing for certain, he doesn't think along the same wavelength as fans
Quote from: AYM on April 21, 2024, 06:42:40 PMI don't know if I agree with this. The 2007 draft directly caused the team to win the Superbowl as every single player heavily contributed.
Going back a couple of years, the 2005 draft was light on picks but gave us Brandon Jacobs, Corey Webster, and Justin Tuck. That was a monster draft too.
The funny thing with the 2007 draft is it gave a great bump during their rookie season, but there wasn't much sustained success
1 CB Aaron Ross
2 WR Steve Smith
3 DT Jay Alford
4 LS Zak DeOssie
5 TE Kevin Boss
6 OL Adam Koets
7 DB Michael Johnson
7 RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Pick for pick I think the 2005 draft class was impressive (they were missing picks due to the Eli Manning trade. When you look at this draft and the Rams draft classes, I wonder if teams spend too much time focusing on their first pick. It seems like teams that don't have a first-pick draft are better in the other rounds.
2 Corey Webster 43 DB
3 Justin Tuck 74 DE
4 Brandon Jacobs 110 RB
6 Eric Moore 186 DE
While I understand Ed's point, I have a different take. I think this is a case where the first batter is walking up to the plate in the bottom of the ninth with their team down 3 runs (and no one on base). A good draft could be the start of a game-winning rally, but it just as easily could be the beginning of the end.
The reality is the team's talent level at the start of year three of Schoen's tenure doesn't seem all that different from the talent level he inherited. While picking 6th is nice, only 6 picks is less than ideal, in light of all the teams remaining needs.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 22, 2024, 08:27:50 AMThe funny thing with the 2007 draft is it gave a great bump during their rookie season, but there wasn't much sustained success
1 CB Aaron Ross
2 WR Steve Smith
3 DT Jay Alford
4 LS Zak DeOssie
5 TE Kevin Boss
6 OL Adam Koets
7 DB Michael Johnson
7 RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Pick for pick I think the 2005 draft class was impressive (they were missing picks due to the Eli Manning trade. When you look at this draft and the Rams draft classes, I wonder if teams spend too much time focusing on their first pick. It seems like teams that don't have a first-pick draft are better in the other rounds.
2 Corey Webster 43 DB
3 Justin Tuck 74 DE
4 Brandon Jacobs 110 RB
6 Eric Moore 186 DE
Rich, your pound-for-pound analysis as suggested by
@AYM got me thinking that by not having a first-round pick, the Scouts and Accorsi were able to concentrate their efforts more on players later in the draft. An enormous amount of time and effort is spent on scouting the first round, visiting schools, attending games, and interviews, and bringing them in for a visit. Even having a late first-round pick requires scouting more than half that class in the event they drop. What do you both think?
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 22, 2024, 09:20:00 AMRich, your pound-for-pound analysis as suggested by @AYM got me thinking that by not having a first-round pick, the Scouts and Accorsi were able to concentrate their efforts more on players later in the draft. An enormous amount of time and effort is spent on scouting the first round, visiting schools, attending games, and interviews, and bringing them in for a visit. Even having a late first-round pick requires scouting more than half that class in the event they drop. What do you both think?
I am beginning to move toward that position. It does seem that there is talent to be had in the later rounds, but teams are far too focused on round one. When you look at the top 30 visits, as reported, roughly half the prospects brought in are projected to go round one. There are 7 rounds in the draft (in the Giants case 6) so half the visits are devoted to round one and half the remaining visits are left for the next five picks.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 22, 2024, 09:15:48 AMWhile I understand Ed's point, I have a different take. I think this is a case where the first batter is walking up to the plate in the bottom of the ninth with their team down 3 runs (and no one on base). A good draft could be the start of a game-winning rally, but it just as easily could be the beginning of the end.
The reality is the team's talent level at the start of year three of Schoen's tenure doesn't seem all that different from the talent level he inherited. While picking 6th is nice, only 6 picks is less than ideal, in light of all the teams remaining needs.
Rich, my point really centers around whether they pick a QB or not and how that molds the future in the near term and long term. Think of the multi-Universe or Dimension theory, where there are many choices taking action and each action creates a reality and that reality can branch off into other realities or Dimensions. This is the year because of the timing with Jones' status and the deep QB Draft Class where one decision can have profound consequences both favorable and unfavorable. For example, those six picks can go down to 4 or five and impact the 2025 Draft if they move up. If they stay and pick a QB, if they stay and pick another position, if they trade back once or twice and the players they choose, QB included or not.
This is a pivotal Draft Year.
Quote from: MightyGiants on April 22, 2024, 09:24:01 AMI am beginning to move toward that position. It does seem that there is talent to be had in the later rounds, but teams are far too focused on round one. When you look at the top 30 visits, as reported, roughly half the prospects brought in are projected to go round one. There are 7 rounds in the draft (in the Giants case 6) so half the visits are devoted to round one and half the remaining visits are left for the next five picks.
I think it's done more as a smokescreen and it's a waste of time. They should only be bringing in those players they need to learn more about. If they don't know this QB Draft Class by now, they never will. Now Nabors would be a productive visit because of the character concerns.
T minus 3...
Quote from: Ed Vette on April 22, 2024, 09:29:59 AMRich, my point really centers around whether they pick a QB or not and how that molds the future in the near term and long term. Think of the multi-Universe or Dimension theory, where there are many choices taking action and each action creates a reality and that reality can branch off into other realities or Dimensions. This is the year because of the timing with Jones' status and the deep QB Draft Class where one decision can have profound consequences both favorable and unfavorable. For example, those six picks can go down to 4 or five and impact the 2025 Draft if they move up. If they stay and pick a QB, if they stay and pick another position, if they trade back once or twice and the players they choose, QB included or not.
This is a pivotal Draft Year.
Ed,
I guess I just see the strong draft class as functionally an illusion owing to three QB needy teams drafting 1-3.
The draft class of
Williams
Maye
Daniels
JJ
Penix
Nix
Sounds pretty impressive
The functional draft class (assuming the 3 QB needy teams draft 3 QBs) of
JJ
Penix
Nix
Seems a bit less impressive with the Giants drafting 3rd
I appreciate that the QB is far and away the most important position and drafting or not drafting players at that position are most impactful to teams, but I am just not that sure the QB talent that will be available to the Giants will be all that impactful, regardless of the move the Giants make or don't make. Admittedly, from this vantage point in time, our vision is less than clear. After all, no one was celebrating the Texans for drafting CJ Stroud. Few people appreciated the Chiefs drafting Mahommes. Even the Bills drafting the 3rd QB on the board or the Ravens sneaking back into round one to draft Lamar Jackson was met with much fanfare.
I guess while the draft is impactful, our witnessing it reminds me of bio-weapon attacks. Bio-weapons have the potential to cause a great deal of death, suffering, and fear, yet the odd thing is that such an attack really isn't "witnessed"; rather it's the impact that is identified, as the deployment of such weapons usually is quite stealthy. To some degree, that's what the draft is like. Watching players being selected makes for great TV, as witnessed by the ratings, but the relatively unknown impact is what really matters.