Could QB Penix be the last minute dark horse?

[MightyGiants]

https://x.com/PLeonardNYDN/status/1783110887147975156




Pat Leonard
@PLeonardNYDN
What I can tell you about Michael Penix Jr. & #Giants:

1. Giants sent every critical person to Washington's pro day where they also had dinner with the Huskies QB

2. QB coach Shea Tierney worked with Penix Jr. on the field at both Senior Bowl AND NFL Combine, as well

3. Joe Schoen seemed to intimate last week that Giants were comfortable with Penix Jr.'s medical, indirectly noting that when a player responds well to surgeries and issues, that's a good indicator

4. Penix Jr. ultimately did NOT take a top 30 visit to the Giants. This could mean something, or nothing. Meeting ownership in some form a key component, though
8:33 AM · Apr 24, 2024
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488
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https://x.com/PLeonardNYDN/status/1783112049830064269

[MightyGiants]

https://x.com/SICscore/status/1782952651832865038

[WheresDayne]

If the Giants staff has done all their homework and still like Penix, I'm on board with one caveat, Ronnie Barnes.  Not sure I trust his sign off on anything, even what to order for lunch   

[MightyGiants]

If the Giants staff has done all their homework and still like Penix, I'm on board with one caveat, Ronnie Barnes.  Not sure I trust his sign off on anything, even what to order for lunch   

I remember hearing HOF GM Bill Polian talk about how they developed an injury grade where various injuries were given scores and all those injuries (during their career before being drafted) were added up to develop a score.   Joe Schoen's rather detailed answer on this issue suggests Ronnie Barnes and his crew take a very different approach.


Q. Has Michael Penix Jr. acquitted all concerns or possible concerns about his injury history in your mind? Then kind of a follow-up to that would be are you more reticent sent now than maybe a year ago to take a chance on a guy who has an injury history, or is it the same as it ever was?

JOE SCHOEN: I think we always take that into account. We have to listen to our medical professionals. We've unfortunately had some issues with injuries the last couple years since I've been here. You want to stray away from injury risks the best you can. I am not going to get into specifics on Michael, it's well documented the injuries he had while he was at Indiana, but he has been healthy at Washington and played two full seasons there.

A lot of times those are indicators. Even if it's not — again, we'll go back to John Smith. He had an ACL his sophomore year, but it hasn't swelled up and he hasn't missed any games or had to aspirate it or anything like that. You usually lean on how the patient responds to those surgeries and how they perform.

We had our medical meeting Monday night. We didn't lose too many people. That's always a scary meeting for us because which one of these players that we love are going to be disqualified because of medical or they advise that we don't take them. We didn't lose a lot of players this year luckily.

[Philosophers]

I remember hearing HOF GM Bill Polian talk about how they developed an injury grade where various injuries were given scores and all those injuries (during their career before being drafted) were added up to develop a score.   Joe Schoen's rather detailed answer on this issue suggests Ronnie Barnes and his crew take a very different approach.


Q. Has Michael Penix Jr. acquitted all concerns or possible concerns about his injury history in your mind? Then kind of a follow-up to that would be are you more reticent sent now than maybe a year ago to take a chance on a guy who has an injury history, or is it the same as it ever was?

JOE SCHOEN: I think we always take that into account. We have to listen to our medical professionals. We've unfortunately had some issues with injuries the last couple years since I've been here. You want to stray away from injury risks the best you can. I am not going to get into specifics on Michael, it's well documented the injuries he had while he was at Indiana, but he has been healthy at Washington and played two full seasons there.

A lot of times those are indicators. Even if it's not — again, we'll go back to John Smith. He had an ACL his sophomore year, but it hasn't swelled up and he hasn't missed any games or had to aspirate it or anything like that. You usually lean on how the patient responds to those surgeries and how they perform.

We had our medical meeting Monday night. We didn't lose too many people. That's always a scary meeting for us because which one of these players that we love are going to be disqualified because of medical or they advise that we don't take them. We didn't lose a lot of players this year luckily.

My concern is not swelling this soon after his surgery but say a bit further out.  That is when the effects of being injured may rear their ugly head.

[MightyGiants]

My concern is not swelling this soon after his surgery but say a bit further out.  That is when the effects of being injured may rear their ugly head.

I think some players are just injury-prone.  It could be how they are built, how they play, or just their luck, but some players just can't seem to escape the injury bug (or they are not good at recovering from injuries, so they miss excessive time).

It does not seem like the Ronnie Barnes believes this is real.

[WheresDayne]

Yet Ronnie will be in the Ring of honor....the Suffering

[kartanoman]

I remember hearing HOF GM Bill Polian talk about how they developed an injury grade where various injuries were given scores and all those injuries (during their career before being drafted) were added up to develop a score.  Joe Schoen's rather detailed answer on this issue suggests Ronnie Barnes and his crew take a very different approach.


Q. Has Michael Penix Jr. acquitted all concerns or possible concerns about his injury history in your mind? Then kind of a follow-up to that would be are you more reticent sent now than maybe a year ago to take a chance on a guy who has an injury history, or is it the same as it ever was?

JOE SCHOEN: I think we always take that into account. We have to listen to our medical professionals. We've unfortunately had some issues with injuries the last couple years since I've been here. You want to stray away from injury risks the best you can. I am not going to get into specifics on Michael, it's well documented the injuries he had while he was at Indiana, but he has been healthy at Washington and played two full seasons there.

A lot of times those are indicators. Even if it's not — again, we'll go back to John Smith. He had an ACL his sophomore year, but it hasn't swelled up and he hasn't missed any games or had to aspirate it or anything like that. You usually lean on how the patient responds to those surgeries and how they perform.

We had our medical meeting Monday night. We didn't lose too many people. That's always a scary meeting for us because which one of these players that we love are going to be disqualified because of medical or they advise that we don't take them. We didn't lose a lot of players this year luckily.

To be a fly on the wall in the "medical meeting," who is in attendance and what are the criteria they are discussing to determine who gets voted off the island?

If I were to guess, it probably isn't significantly different than what Bill Polian was referring to (i.e. injury score/risk rating).

However, since the staff is headed by the infamous Dr. Ronnie Barnes, as far as this board is concerned, we'd have better results having Dr. Daffy Duck running proceedings.

What Polian has offered up is consistent with what some teams do. The article you linked here, Rich @@MightyGiants,  about the Rams assigning each of their players a "health index rating," which enabled their medical staff to deep dive each individual player's mechanics and evaluated them for potential risk for both contact and non-contact injuries, seemed ahead of its time. The Rams boasted of being a top 10 most injury-free team until, after that article was published, and immediately became one of the most injured NFL teams the following year.

So, this past injury analysis is a standard practice by all NFL teams. How it is executed may vary, but they achieve the same purpose for all: assign a future injury risk index to a player who has incurred a serious injury in the past.

Now, whether they CORRECTLY assign the right index to the right player, and depending on the organization's risk tolerance, the results of their draft strategy will certainly vary.

Peace!

[MightyGiants]

However, since the staff is headed by the infamous Dr. Ronnie Barnes, as far as this board is concerned, we'd have better results having Dr. Daffy Duck running proceedings.

In fairness, the Giants have been a perennial leader in injury time lost for over a decade, so it's hard to see how Dr. Daffy Duck could do worse.     

[Gmo11]

I actually like Penix a lot when just looking at the play on the field and would be totally fine with him as a top 10 pick if not for the injuries.  But you just can't ignore that no matter how much you'd like to.  He's one ACL tear away from having his career ended before it really even starts. 

It's incredibly risky to take a guy like that so early in the draft when they could presumably get a bonafide stud at WR instead.  A WR without those injury concerns.  If they do love Penix I imagine they could move down in the draft given how good those WRs are and still get him later while also acquiring another high pick or two in the process. 

I don't think the Giants would seriously take Penix at 6.  That seems wildly unreasonable to me.  But the part about them being desperate to come away with one of the QBs doesn't seem unreasonable at all.  I just don't know if they'll be able to do it.

For what it's worth, again based strictly on the play on the field and nothing else, I like Penix a lot more than Maye. Maye just has all his original ACLs.

[kartanoman]

My concern is not swelling this soon after his surgery but say a bit further out.  That is when the effects of being injured may rear their ugly head.

This is a valid concern and it really depends on the type of injury, the severity of it and how well the surgeon repaired it.

When I was in my early 20s, I fractured my ankle at the base of my tibia and fibula but continued to play on in competitive sport. I never had it looked at and just let it heal on its own. Pain went away and I was fine throughout my 20s to mid 30s. Getting into my late 30s, the ankle started swelling up after I ran my six to eight miles every morning. Figured I was carrying a few extra pounds, so I bought an ankle brace for support, lost the weight, and I was fine the rest of my 30s and into my early 40s. By my mid 40s, my Achilles tendon was ripe with tendinitis and the bone spurs from the fracture now became an issue as they were tearing up my Achilles as I ran.

I can go on but you see my point. No, I wasn't playing football where I'd be wearing out my joints faster, but gradually over time. Modern medicine and surgical practices can buy back many years for these NFL players. They'll pay for it later, as I did, but have a good chance to complete the majority of a full career.

Peace!

[kingm56]

I hope not; Penix reminds me too much of Brandon Weeden.  At the college level, both are/were big-arm QBs with good accuracy who entered the draft much older than their peers; speaking of age, their numbers may have been inflated as a result of playing against 'kids' 4-to-5 years younger.  To be fair, I think Penix will prove to be a much better player than Weeden, but will be 24 years old at the start of next season.  For comparison sake, DJ is 26 years old, Patrick Maohmes is 28, and CJ Stroud will be 22 at the start of the season.  I'm not a fan of drafting a QB already 4 years older than his contempories. 

Very similar college numbers:
 
Weeden:
342   511   66.9   4277   8.4   8.6   34   13   154.1
409   565   72.4   4727   8.4   8.6   37   13   159.7

Penix:
362   554   65.3   4641   8.4   8.8   31   8   151.3
363   555   65.4   4903   8.8   9.2   36   11   157.1

[sooners56]

Pass. Don't do it Giants!

[Rosehill Jimmy]

I have my doubts as to whether it is Barnes who is personally evaluating the shoulder/knee films of Penix.  I would suspect and hope that the orthopedics on staff are the people opining on his injuries

[Puffy]

I'd be fine with Penix IF the Giants trade down or trade back up into the first round after taking a receiver at #6.