Realistic view of what team could become in next year or two

[Trench]

Was Wink an increasing cancer last year? That was a very strange dynamic to say the least and the defense did not seem like it had a really sound plan many games.

This is a very interesting point you raise. It will be fascinating to see what our defense is (or isn't).

I have been real hard on Thibs and I hope a new coach and scheme will release him into beast mode. I also like the signing of Carter Coughlin, a role player but is developing. Add to the strong play of Pinnock and Belton it will be interesting to watch

[LennG]

If I may be so bold as to ask, where was I when these 'flashes of brilliance' occurred? Did I run off to get a snack, visit the WC, or nodded off because of our exciting offense?

I welcome new opinions of our team, but let's be a bit realistic.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

Was Wink an increasing cancer last year? That was a very strange dynamic to say the least and the defense did not seem like it had a really sound plan many games.

I think so, but more in the front office and coaching staff then the players. There was a cancer in the Eagles' last year, who started out the season 10-1, followed up by 1-6 to finish the season. That doesn't happen because of a talent void. So the front office made a lot of coaching changes. All was not well in the Eagles' camp last year

Disharmony and unhealthy relationships, whether between players or coaches/staff...it destroys moral, and takes its toll on a team. You have to believe in the system and live for it...from top to bottom. It's why you check character and locker room atmosphere and cut bait with certain individuals before things get worse

[AZGiantFan]

Was Wink an increasing cancer last year? That was a very strange dynamic to say the least and the defense did not seem like it had a really sound plan many games.

Wink put up a horrific run defense and for all the talk of aggressiveness the Giants were in the bottom 5 of the league in sacks.

[Trench]

Wink put up a horrific run defense and for all the talk of aggressiveness the Giants were in the bottom 5 of the league in sacks.

It is pretty amazing when ya look at it that way

[AZGiantFan]

It is pretty amazing when ya look at it that way

That is why the "eye test" as to be subject to the discipline of stats.  Stats don't tell the whole story but they are the fact checkers for eye tests.

[Uncle Mickey]

SOme may not agree but I think this draft will have 4 maybe more who become positive to strong contributors to the team and a few day 1 starters. I think we bring in a vet CB and this team will hinge on DJ. If he is the real deal then this team will surprise.

[MightyGiants]

This is a very interesting point you raise. It will be fascinating to see what our defense is (or isn't).

I have been real hard on Thibs and I hope a new coach and scheme will release him into beast mode. I also like the signing of Carter Coughlin, a role player but is developing. Add to the strong play of Pinnock and Belton it will be interesting to watch

With Burns rushing from the other end, OCs are going to be challenged in terms of giving help (in terms of double teams and slanting) to both OTs.  That should help both pass rushers.

[kartanoman]

The attempt here is at a realistic view of what this team could be next year or two. Let me know if you agree or it's overly optimistic 

So I'd like to touch on each unit and see if we of Big Blue Folk Lore can come to a consensus:


OFFENSE

QB: Big unknown for many and rightly so. Flashes of brilliance but supporting cast (WR, OL and OL coaching) has been undoubtedly one of the worst combinations in the league his entire tenure as Giants QB. Does this change, mercifully and finally? See below.

WR: Stark reality stat: The last giants receiver to break 1,000 was Odell in 2018 with 1,052 yards. In fact, no receiver has gotten more than 751 yards in that time span (Darius Slayton 2020). In the modern passing era those are ridiculously low numbers. But now another much ballyhooed LSU WR has been added to the fold.  The recent history has been fantastic: OBJ, J'Marr, Justin Jefferson. Now Malik Nabers. These guys come in and are often day 1 starters who also are 1100+ yard WRs year 1. We have a 3rd year Wan'Dale who did more than flash last year and a 2nd year Hyatt who last year proved at minimum his speed has to be seriously accounted for and requires safety help over the top. Slayton the vet of the group is steady if unspectacular and Hodgins is a nice possession guy and red zone threat.

TE: Waller is probably retiring, big hit here. However under Wellman hopefully Bellinger slims back down a bit and regains some of his lost agilty/speed. He was not as agile last year. There is a thing as too much muscle. Also Theo seems to be a super intriguing option who has some serious upside in the passing game and as a blocker.

OL: Always the million dollar question. Personally I think coaching had just as much to do with it as poor talent the last few years. However Bracillo could be the best guy we've had in here in like ages. Schoen signed a couple guys who are very good pass blockers. JMS was supposedly the best Center in last year's draft and super smart. I think he develops under Carmen. Neal I have no idea. But you hope he can be at least either a half decent RT or half decent RT and Eluemenor can play the other position next to him. No first year players on the line either this year which is a good thing too.

RB: Yes we lost Barkley to the dreaded Eagles. Let's move on. Daboll's offense, is more a passing offense. Singletary is a low key effective Running Back. We got two stabs with Dante Miller and Tracy for an electric one that can be used in an RBBC. Still early, but Gray to me didn't show me much.




DEFENSE


D-Line/Edge: Dexter Lawrence , one of best in business. No more Wink weird DL responsibilities . More traditional DL approach under Bowen. We don't know if Bowen is a product of Vrabel or also an effective DC but in theory his philosophies sound well sound. Burns was a monstrous addition to add to Thibs on other side. Ojulari also is a plus pass rusher but just can't stay on the field. Depth on DL is questionable with Riley and Davidson showing flashes but still very much unknowns. Losing Robinson here hurts a bit but the top end talent could be ferocious. Patterson is a good DL coach who will get to work them in more traditional pass rush and run responsibilities under Bowen (in theory).

LB: Not as premium an impact position but we have a keeper in Okereke now. A heady , smart 3 down sideline to sideline guy who is a still good fit in Bowen's defense. McFadden had some bad missed tackles/reads last year but in the new more straight forward traditional defense of Bowen he should be better this year. Beaver who flashed bigtime might be healthy again. Not a terrible group and with all the sub-packages it will really come down to having one good one which we do and maybe a 2nd one like Beavers or McFadden.

CB: Love Banks and while he may be better in man think he can play some zone too. He will be a 2nd year player now. Problem is there is little veteran presence and not much after Banks. McCloud is down low a decent player but we need more especially when teams base is often 3 and sometimes 4 WR sets. Andru Phillips is interesting but just a rookie. Robinson can't stay healthy. Flott is still kinda an unknown. I thnk if one unit is crying out for a veteran post draft addition it's this one. There are a few options still out there like Gillmore, Peterson and Weatherspoon. One of those options potentially would stabilize the backend.

S: Tyler Nubin if he is everything this front office and scouting department think he is could be the steal of the draft. 13 INTs don't happen by accident in college football. He seems like a perfect fit for a split zone scheme. Extrmely smart and instinctual. Has good size. Pinnock and Belton aren't great but aren't terrible either. Adding Nubin to this mix could make this unit quite dynamic.



Conclusion: Bowen is an unknown. Is he a product of Vrabel only? Is he the Eric Bienemy of DCs? DJ is an unknown too but if healthy, the missing ingredients that QBs normally need to convert talent to actual on field production is apparently there this year.  OL coaching #1, a WR group that could have a true WR1 even though he is a rookie and a half decent cast along the offensive line. Defense has some nice pieces but is still quite young in some areas. Needs a vet presence or two especially at Safety and probably DT.

When you add all this one could argue this team has quite a bit more overall collective talent than the Daboll team in 2022. That team was coached extremely well and miximized it's abilities despite poor OL coaching and talent. That team also won 9 games and a playoff game!  If this team is coached up well offensively and defensively and DJ is a QB that can play well with better parts around him, I could see it surprise a bit.  Daboll in my mind  proved he is capable of coaching up an offense. If he can do more with less and adjust to the parts around him like 2022, I think now with a better OL that won't short circuit what he is trying to do on offense and the #1 WR potentially in the fold this team could be better than it's 2022 predecessor.




Realistic or overly optimistic? 

THANK YOU for taking the time, and investing much effort, into synthesizing your analysis which all of us, including me, greatly appreciate.

Everyone here offers fair opinions but commends your body of work.

My only feedback would be to "fully" complete your analysis by including the special teams. An All-Pro Kicker will be returning from knee surgery and, as one who had total knee replacement on the same knee as Gano's surgically repaired knee, it is far from automatic that he will return to his amazing self. In fact, I'm concerned he might go the way of Brad Daluiso following his knee surgery in 1999. Time will tell. But one of the more pleasing stories of 2023 was the overall improvement of the Scottish Hammer, Jamie Gillen. Every aspect of his game improved from his first year with the club and the hope is that he will continue to improve. Adding Gunner Olszewski to the team was the best in-season signing the Giants have made since Ottis Anderson in 1986. Think about that.

You have transformed our space here in a positive way in just a short period of time. Consider yourself a friend with all of us and certainly with me.

I've thoroughly enjoyed reading your posts; please keep posting with confidence!

Peace!

[londonblue]

We have more 'red and blue chip' players than we have had for quite a while but we also have big questions at key starting roles. Like most rosters it is in the balance as to whether the strengths elevate us or the weaknesses deflate us.

If the new coaches and veteran OL do their jobs professionally the roster should be league average, subject to QB play. I can see a path if enough goes right to give us sound enough foundations to compete 2025 and beyond assuming solid QB play but I will believe it when I see it.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

SOme may not agree but I think this draft will have 4 maybe more who become positive to strong contributors to the team and a few day 1 starters. I think we bring in a vet CB and this team will hinge on DJ. If he is the real deal then this team will surprise.

I've spent a lot of time (too much actually) thinking about how many of this year's draftees will become starters out of the gate, which from all I've heard and read over the years (and I'm old), is the true measure of a successful draft

Without a doubt, Nabors is a day 1 starter;  I think Nubin is a day 1 starter as well; and I think there's an above average chance that Philips starts at Nickel. I think Theo Johnson will see quite a few snaps this season, but not necessarily as a starter, but he will be eventually and become to the Giants, what Witten was to Dallas (had to throw that in). Tracy will probably start as a STs player and, like Theo as TE, will eventually become a regular starter as a RB and gadget player. I have no clue about Muasau, unless he's a superb STs player...and to be honest, I'm still scratching my head over that pick; although, it makes sense if our new ST coach, Michael Ghobrial wanted him and thus, had a lot of impact on the pick, as he was a STs demon at Hawaii when Ghobrial was there  I think that's the same reason we picked up Eluemunor in free agency, as he was one of Bricillo's star students/players at the Raiders. It's nice that Schoen respects his coaches enough to allow them a chance to reunite with a player that is special to them...but I digress

So, if I'm right, three of the draft picks will be starters on day one, and two will become starters soon (within two years). If I'm right, that makes this a very successful draft

[MightyGiants]

I've spent a lot of time (too much actually) thinking about how many of this year's draftees will become starters out of the gate, which from all I've heard and read over the years (and I'm old), is the true measure of a successful draft

Without a doubt, Nabors is a day 1 starter;  I think Nubin is a day 1 starter as well; and I think there's an above average chance that Philips starts at Nickel. I think Theo Johnson will see quite a few snaps this season, but not necessarily as a starter, but he will be eventually and become to the Giants, what Witten was to Dallas (had to throw that in). Tracy will probably start as a STs player and, like Theo as TE, will eventually become a regular starter as a RB and gadget player. I have no clue about Muasau, unless he's a superb STs player...and to be honest, I'm still scratching my head over that pick; although, it makes sense if our new ST coach, Michael Ghobrial wanted him and thus, had a lot of impact on the pick, as he was a STs demon at Hawaii when Ghobrial was there  I think that's the same reason we picked up Eluemunor in free agency, as he was one of Bricillo's star students/players at the Raiders. It's nice that Schoen respects his coaches enough to allow them a chance to reunite with a player that is special to them...but I digress

So, if I'm right, three of the draft picks will be starters on day one, and two will become starters soon (within two years). If I'm right, that makes this a very successful draft

Ric,

I agree in terms of how you see players contributing this year. Muasau is a special teams ace.  He is likely going to push Carter Coughlin off the roster.   So his role will be ST ace who won't be a huge liability if he is forced to take some snaps at ILB. 

[AZGiantFan]

Ric,

I agree in terms of how you see players contributing this year. Muasau is a special teams ace.  He is likely going to push Carter Coughlin off the roster.   So his role will be ST ace who won't be a huge liability if he is forced to take some snaps at ILB. 

He was a tackling machine in college, and Lord knows our run defense can use all the help it can get.  I hope that he emerges as that guy.

[Uncle Mickey]

I've spent a lot of time (too much actually) thinking about how many of this year's draftees will become starters out of the gate, which from all I've heard and read over the years (and I'm old), is the true measure of a successful draft

Without a doubt, Nabors is a day 1 starter;  I think Nubin is a day 1 starter as well; and I think there's an above average chance that Philips starts at Nickel. I think Theo Johnson will see quite a few snaps this season, but not necessarily as a starter, but he will be eventually and become to the Giants, what Witten was to Dallas (had to throw that in). Tracy will probably start as a STs player and, like Theo as TE, will eventually become a regular starter as a RB and gadget player. I have no clue about Muasau, unless he's a superb STs player...and to be honest, I'm still scratching my head over that pick; although, it makes sense if our new ST coach, Michael Ghobrial wanted him and thus, had a lot of impact on the pick, as he was a STs demon at Hawaii when Ghobrial was there  I think that's the same reason we picked up Eluemunor in free agency, as he was one of Bricillo's star students/players at the Raiders. It's nice that Schoen respects his coaches enough to allow them a chance to reunite with a player that is special to them...but I digress

So, if I'm right, three of the draft picks will be starters on day one, and two will become starters soon (within two years). If I'm right, that makes this a very successful draft

Post draft, Secondary especially corner is the biggest concern right now, I would think. They addressed WR1 with a top 6 pick who carries a legitimate blue-chip grade that is higher than most WR1's in most 'normal' draft classes. They addressed safety with an extremely instinctual split zone ready type safety in Nubin and have two OK guys in Pinnock and possibly Belton. They added 5 vet OL , FIVE, and most importantly an OL ball coach who really seems to be a 'good one'. CB got Banks maybe McCloud and a bunch of very young ,injury prone or just unproven guys after that. In these 3-4 WR sets that are run more frequently , that's a dangerous recipe. They lost Adoree, the main veteran presence back there.

I think they are going after one post draft.

Akella Witherspoon, Gillmore, Nelson, Peterson. All still out there. Akella is 29 and steady. He'd be my choice. Followed by Gillmore who is older but was still half decent last year.

[Uncle Mickey]

THANK YOU for taking the time, and investing much effort, into synthesizing your analysis which all of us, including me, greatly appreciate.

Everyone here offers fair opinions but commends your body of work.

My only feedback would be to "fully" complete your analysis by including the special teams. An All-Pro Kicker will be returning from knee surgery and, as one who had total knee replacement on the same knee as Gano's surgically repaired knee, it is far from automatic that he will return to his amazing self. In fact, I'm concerned he might go the way of Brad Daluiso following his knee surgery in 1999. Time will tell. But one of the more pleasing stories of 2023 was the overall improvement of the Scottish Hammer, Jamie Gillen. Every aspect of his game improved from his first year with the club and the hope is that he will continue to improve. Adding Gunner Olszewski to the team was the best in-season signing the Giants have made since Ottis Anderson in 1986. Think about that.

You have transformed our space here in a positive way in just a short period of time. Consider yourself a friend with all of us and certainly with me.

I've thoroughly enjoyed reading your posts; please keep posting with confidence!

Peace!

I appreciate your supplementary analysis on specials Kart. It was an ommision of impatience.   

I agree with everything you said. I'll add two things:

We have brought in numerous guys who can play specials and a couple intriguing options for KR/PR including Tracy, Phillips and maybe Dante '4.27' Miller.

I worry about the unknown of Ghobriel as a ST guy and lament we missed on getting Larry Izzo (we were blocked and then he was released like a week or two later)