Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on April 29, 2024, 10:09:28 AMThe attempt here is at a realistic view of what this team could be next year or two. Let me know if you agree or it's overly optimistic 

So I'd like to touch on each unit and see if we of Big Blue Folk Lore can come to a consensus:


OFFENSE

QB: Big unknown for many and rightly so. Flashes of brilliance but supporting cast (WR, OL and OL coaching) has been undoubtedly one of the worst combinations in the league his entire tenure as Giants QB. Does this change, mercifully and finally? See below.

WR: Stark reality stat: The last giants receiver to break 1,000 was Odell in 2018 with 1,052 yards. In fact, no receiver has gotten more than 751 yards in that time span (Darius Slayton 2020). In the modern passing era those are ridiculously low numbers. But now another much ballyhooed LSU WR has been added to the fold.  The recent history has been fantastic: OBJ, J'Marr, Justin Jefferson. Now Malik Nabers. These guys come in and are often day 1 starters who also are 1100+ yard WRs year 1. We have a 3rd year Wan'Dale who did more than flash last year and a 2nd year Hyatt who last year proved at minimum his speed has to be seriously accounted for and requires safety help over the top. Slayton the vet of the group is steady if unspectacular and Hodgins is a nice possession guy and red zone threat.

TE: Waller is probably retiring, big hit here. However under Wellman hopefully Bellinger slims back down a bit and regains some of his lost agilty/speed. He was not as agile last year. There is a thing as too much muscle. Also Theo seems to be a super intriguing option who has some serious upside in the passing game and as a blocker.

OL: Always the million dollar question. Personally I think coaching had just as much to do with it as poor talent the last few years. However Bracillo could be the best guy we've had in here in like ages. Schoen signed a couple guys who are very good pass blockers. JMS was supposedly the best Center in last year's draft and super smart. I think he develops under Carmen. Neal I have no idea. But you hope he can be at least either a half decent RT or half decent RT and Eluemenor can play the other position next to him. No first year players on the line either this year which is a good thing too.

RB: Yes we lost Barkley to the dreaded Eagles. Let's move on. Daboll's offense, is more a passing offense. Singletary is a low key effective Running Back. We got two stabs with Dante Miller and Tracy for an electric one that can be used in an RBBC. Still early, but Gray to me didn't show me much.




DEFENSE


D-Line/Edge: Dexter Lawrence , one of best in business. No more Wink weird DL responsibilities . More traditional DL approach under Bowen. We don't know if Bowen is a product of Vrabel or also an effective DC but in theory his philosophies sound well sound. Burns was a monstrous addition to add to Thibs on other side. Ojulari also is a plus pass rusher but just can't stay on the field. Depth on DL is questionable with Riley and Davidson showing flashes but still very much unknowns. Losing Robinson here hurts a bit but the top end talent could be ferocious. Patterson is a good DL coach who will get to work them in more traditional pass rush and run responsibilities under Bowen (in theory).

LB: Not as premium an impact position but we have a keeper in Okereke now. A heady , smart 3 down sideline to sideline guy who is a still good fit in Bowen's defense. McFadden had some bad missed tackles/reads last year but in the new more straight forward traditional defense of Bowen he should be better this year. Beaver who flashed bigtime might be healthy again. Not a terrible group and with all the sub-packages it will really come down to having one good one which we do and maybe a 2nd one like Beavers or McFadden.

CB: Love Banks and while he may be better in man think he can play some zone too. He will be a 2nd year player now. Problem is there is little veteran presence and not much after Banks. McCloud is down low a decent player but we need more especially when teams base is often 3 and sometimes 4 WR sets. Andru Phillips is interesting but just a rookie. Robinson can't stay healthy. Flott is still kinda an unknown. I thnk if one unit is crying out for a veteran post draft addition it's this one. There are a few options still out there like Gillmore, Peterson and Weatherspoon. One of those options potentially would stabilize the backend.

S: Tyler Nubin if he is everything this front office and scouting department think he is could be the steal of the draft. 13 INTs don't happen by accident in college football. He seems like a perfect fit for a split zone scheme. Extrmely smart and instinctual. Has good size. Pinnock and Belton aren't great but aren't terrible either. Adding Nubin to this mix could make this unit quite dynamic.



Conclusion: Bowen is an unknown. Is he a product of Vrabel only? Is he the Eric Bienemy of DCs? DJ is an unknown too but if healthy, the missing ingredients that QBs normally need to convert talent to actual on field production is apparently there this year.  OL coaching #1, a WR group that could have a true WR1 even though he is a rookie and a half decent cast along the offensive line. Defense has some nice pieces but is still quite young in some areas. Needs a vet presence or two especially at Safety and probably DT.

When you add all this one could argue this team has quite a bit more overall collective talent than the Daboll team in 2022. That team was coached extremely well and miximized it's abilities despite poor OL coaching and talent. That team also won 9 games and a playoff game!  If this team is coached up well offensively and defensively and DJ is a QB that can play well with better parts around him, I could see it surprise a bit.  Daboll in my mind  proved he is capable of coaching up an offense. If he can do more with less and adjust to the parts around him like 2022, I think now with a better OL that won't short circuit what he is trying to do on offense and the #1 WR potentially in the fold this team could be better than it's 2022 predecessor.




Realistic or overly optimistic? 

THANK YOU for taking the time, and investing much effort, into synthesizing your analysis which all of us, including me, greatly appreciate.

Everyone here offers fair opinions but commends your body of work.

My only feedback would be to "fully" complete your analysis by including the special teams. An All-Pro Kicker will be returning from knee surgery and, as one who had total knee replacement on the same knee as Gano's surgically repaired knee, it is far from automatic that he will return to his amazing self. In fact, I'm concerned he might go the way of Brad Daluiso following his knee surgery in 1999. Time will tell. But one of the more pleasing stories of 2023 was the overall improvement of the Scottish Hammer, Jamie Gillen. Every aspect of his game improved from his first year with the club and the hope is that he will continue to improve. Adding Gunner Olszewski to the team was the best in-season signing the Giants have made since Ottis Anderson in 1986. Think about that.

You have transformed our space here in a positive way in just a short period of time. Consider yourself a friend with all of us and certainly with me.

I've thoroughly enjoyed reading your posts; please keep posting with confidence!

Peace!

I hope Phil still does podcasting, as I think he still has things of value to say


https://x.com/PhilSimmsQB/status/1784943898923524327

Quote from: Trench on April 29, 2024, 07:14:31 PMThis is a very interesting point you raise. It will be fascinating to see what our defense is (or isn't).

I have been real hard on Thibs and I hope a new coach and scheme will release him into beast mode. I also like the signing of Carter Coughlin, a role player but is developing. Add to the strong play of Pinnock and Belton it will be interesting to watch

With Burns rushing from the other end, OCs are going to be challenged in terms of giving help (in terms of double teams and slanting) to both OTs.  That should help both pass rushers.

Quote from: katkavage on Today at 07:10:23 AMI don't know about Joe Alt, but I'm pretty sure, picking 6, they never were serious about a QB despite the blather of Mara and Schoen. If they were picking number 1 they would haven't had a choice and would have had to take Williams. Anything other than that, I think they would have traded out. It's all about saving face over the contract for Jones.

It's amazing how, in some fans' eyes, John Mara has become this cartoon villain.  It's sort of like what we see league-wide with Rodger Goodell.   The reality is that Goodell suffers the wrath of much of the NFL fanbase, but in reality, he is just the face of the decision made by the owners.

If you want to hold Mara accountable for Gettleman and Joe Judge, that's reasonable.  However, the amount of wild conspiracy theories that are created around Mara and what he does as co-owner of the Giants is truly remarkable.

SOme may not agree but I think this draft will have 4 maybe more who become positive to strong contributors to the team and a few day 1 starters. I think we bring in a vet CB and this team will hinge on DJ. If he is the real deal then this team will surprise.

Quote from: B1GBLUE on Today at 08:50:52 AMInteresting draft. seems like we got at least 2 day 1 starters in nabers and nubin. phillips seems to be a well regarded player who can instantly be the lead slot guy, and probably can move into the #2 spot across from banks.

I think the team will be pushing Flott out to the boundary to compete with McCloud and Hawkins for CB 2 with Phillips being the team's new slot CB.

The Eagles did their usual excellent job with plenty of accolades (although they didn't really address the loss of some key veterans)

The Cowboys seemed to have gotten worse, with RB being a big question mark

The Commanders are better on paper, but it remains to be seen on the field.  The team is likely going to need a season or two to become competitive.

@Ed Vette that was some turnaround.  Prior to the draft you were talking about how excited you were, how this was the most important draft, and even threw in a reference to the multiverse.  Now you seem absolutely crestfallen.


As to the question, I think this team is moving in the right direction.  I appreciate the team lost Barkley and McKinney, but in my mind, it's not about adding good players; it's about adding impact players.  While it's not unreasonable to label both Barkley and McKinney as good, neither really made an impact on the team nor its fortunes.

Now, with the qualifier that this is a speculative thread and question, so we are projecting the play of players, I see the following:

On offense, the Giants added Nabers, who I feel will have a significant positive impact. He will do that by not only giving the quarterback an open target but also adding significant YAC, something this offense hasn't had in quite some time.

I also see players making bigger positive impacts this year than last, including JMS, Hyatt, Robinson, and Daniel Jones (if he stays healthy).

I wouldn't be surprised if Theo Johnson and Tyrone Tracy are year-one contributors.

I don't believe there will be a drop off at RB

At QB, I am concerned about DJ's ability to stay healthy, but I am intrigued as to what Drew Lock can bring to the table.  He always had talent, but from what I hear, he finally "gets it" in terms of what it take to be an NFL QB.

Still, the biggest problem with the offense was the offensive line. I hope that when we look back on next season, we will say the biggest addition to the team was O-line coach Carmen Bricillo.  Adding a bunch of proven veterans to pair with the younger players seems to be a wise move at this point.

On Defense, I don't have any reason to believe that Shane Bowen isn't a competent DC.  The addition of Burns and the day two DBs were nice additions.  There were already some solid contributors with Dex, Thibs, and Okereka.  There is no reason to think the Giants can't field at least a middle-of-the-pack defense with some potential upside.


Coaching is an interesting issue.  I have gone on record that I didn't like how the Giants handled the situation.  Still, if one wants to take the optimistic view, Daboll's staff should at least all be on the same page and follow Daboll's vision for how the team should be run.  That has the potential to make things much better for the team.

So all-in-all I am cautiously optimistic

the direction is headed the right way. stacking up the defense, which is always a good thing. good young pass rushers, elite dt, solid MLB, secondary gaining depth- gotta hope a couple of the young guys turn out to be something.

Receiver core is looking good the next few years

o line has a lot of young guys, you gotta figure at least a couple of them will shake out. we got thomas and JMS penciled in for the next half decade. gotta find some permanent solutions on the rest of the line.

qb is still a HUGE question mark. can jones finally turn the corner with better supporting cast? until this question is answered, the "direction" looks to be exactly the same.

Three of the four teams in the division at least have a plan.

I think the Eagles' roster has gotten better, especially turning the defensive backfield from liability into arguably a strength.

I like that the Giants didn't panic after a lost season, and continued to build a promising young roster. 

I much prefer what Washington did in the draft to what they did in free agency, which looked like the football equivalent of a nostalgia tour.

It seems obvious that Dallas simply does not know how to manage the salary cap.  They've demonstrated stunning ineptitude since the end of the season.  How do you end up capped out with arguably your three least replaceable players in line for new contracts?  Even a normal rash of injuries, which every team has to some extent, will doom them this year.