Submarine disaster in North Atlantic

[DaveBrown74]

I am sure you have all seen lots of headlines and stories about this submarine that has failed to return to the surface following an expedition to view the Titanic wreckage off the coast of Newfoundland. Needless to say my heart goes out to those inside, and I hope very much that there will be a miraculous rescue.

Given how quiet the NFL is, I thought I'd post a thread on this to get updates/thoughts on this event.

A couple of things I've read that are of interest:

(1) The oxygen supply is deemed to be 70 to 96 hours. However I'm not sure exactly when that clock started. If it started right when they submerged then it's pretty dire. I don't know if that refers to some additional supply or not that they have. The article below (which came out one hour ago) suggests it might be about 50 hours.

(2) Most (if not all) submersibles have a feature known as "drop weight." The idea being that if the vehicle completely malfunctions, it can drop weight that causes it to rise to the surface on nothing but its own buoyance. The fact that that has not happened with this particular submarine suggests it might be trapped or caught, possibly in the wreckage itself.


Overall a nerve-wracking story. I am hoping for good news here but I'm preparing myself for it not to be.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/submarine-titantic-missing-submersible-tourists-latest-b2360568.html

[Ed Vette]

My questions would be why hasn't the "paperwork" been cleared up? Is there a homing device beacon on that ship that can send out a distress signal? Or a distress beacon that can be released to the surface? What other obstacles would they encounter besides the wreckage? Are there no other ships that can submerge that deep?

[DaveBrown74]

My questions would be why hasn't the "paperwork" been cleared up? Is there a homing device beacon on that ship that can send out a distress signal? Or a distress beacon that can be released to the surface? What other obstacles would they encounter besides the wreckage? Are there no other ships that can submerge that deep?

The only question above that I have read a clear answer to is the last one.

There are other vessels that can go that deep and potentially pull this one up, but they are extremely few in number.


Here is a quote from the below article:

"If it has gone down to the seabed and can't get back up under its own power, options are very limited," Greig said. "While the submersible might still be intact, if it is beyond the continental shelf, there are very few vessels that can get that deep, and certainly not divers."


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/06/20/titanic-tourist-submarine-missing-live-updates/70336871007/

[MightyGiants]

My money is on the failure of the acrylic viewport.   They claim they would see cracking before it failed, but I have heard of many large acrylic aquariums failing without warning.

[DaveBrown74]

I just read an article starting that there are currently 40-41 hours worth of oxygen left. That is as of approximately 1pm EST. As of now there are no reports that they have even located the sub.

I really hope a miracle can be pulled off here but I'd be being less than fully honest if I said I was very optimistic.

I have read a lot of comments on NYT articles and other sites, and there is clearly a lot of resentment out there for the people who had the means to embark on this trip purely for thrill-seeking reasons. I understand why people may feel that way, but on a human level all that stuff needs to go out the window right now, in my opinion at least. All of that can certainly be discussed and explored if these people are rescued. Right now all I care about is these people's survival, personally.

[MightyGiants]

I just read an article starting that there are currently 40-41 hours worth of oxygen left. That is as of approximately 1pm EST. As of now there are no reports that they have even located the sub.

I really hope a miracle can be pulled off here but I'd be being less than fully honest if I said I was very optimistic.

I have read a lot of comments on NYT articles and other sites, and there is clearly a lot of resentment out there for the people who had the means to embark on this trip purely for thrill-seeking reasons. I understand why people may feel that way, but on a human level all that stuff needs to go out the window right now, in my opinion at least. All of that can certainly be discussed and explored if these people are rescued. Right now all I care about is these people's survival, personally.

The amount of air matters if they have some sort of emergency and have to float back to the surface untethered. I understand the passengers are bolted in, so it is conceivable they can't get out without outside assistance.  So best case, they are bobbing around on the surface awaiting rescue.

They lost contact with the submersible about halfway down.  So I find it unlikely (but not impossible) that something happened (maybe complete loss of power) that would cause the vessel to sink to the bottom, unable to surface.  Nothing can dive that deep (at least an asset that can get there in time) to rescue the crew.

For me, the most likely scenario was a structural failure that allowed the high-pressure water to fill the vessel and kill everyone on board quickly.  The vessel was unregulated and unlicensed by any sort of regulatory authority.  The technology is pretty cutting-edge.  Cutting-edge technology often runs the risk of unforeseen failures.  You had a carbon fiber pressure vessel mated to titanium endcaps and the acrylic viewport.   That design is under immense pressure at the bottom of dives, and the entire pressure vessel undergoes dramatic pressure changes in the 2-mile dives. 

This is all extreme engineering without much prior history/lessons learned to fall back on.

[DaveBrown74]

The amount of air matters if they have some sort of emergency and have to float back to the surface untethered. I understand the passengers are bolted in, so it is conceivable they can't get out without outside assistance.  So best case, they are bobbing around on the surface awaiting rescue.

They lost contact with the submersible about halfway down.  So I find it unlikely (but not impossible) that something happened (maybe complete loss of power) that would cause the vessel to sink to the bottom, unable to surface.  Nothing can dive that deep (at least an asset that can get there in time) to rescue the crew.

For me, the most likely scenario was a structural failure that allowed the high-pressure water to fill the vessel and kill everyone on board quickly.  The vessel was unregulated and unlicensed by any sort of regulatory authority.  The technology is pretty cutting-edge.  Cutting-edge technology often runs the risk of unforeseen failures.  You had a carbon fiber pressure vessel mated to titanium endcaps and the acrylic viewport.   That design is under immense pressure at the bottom of dives, and the entire pressure vessel undergoes dramatic pressure changes in the 2-mile dives. 

This is all extreme engineering without much prior history/lessons learned to fall back on.

These theories all make sense. Clearly it is very possible they have all perished already. If that is indeed the case, I suspect your theory is probably what happened.

The other thing I keep reading is that they may have become entangled in the Titanic wreckage itself. If that's the case, finding them will not be that difficult, although an actual successful rescue seems highly improbable.

Although this is highly different, the last rescue mission I can recall that got this level of global attention was one those young boys in Thailand were trapped deep inside a cave with their soccer coach. Although that was deeply worrying at the time, the boys had at least been located, and rescue people were able to bring them food and water while they figured out to get them out. This one seems much less hopeful, unfortunately.

[MightyGiants]

These theories all make sense. Clearly it is very possible they have all perished already. If that is indeed the case, I suspect your theory is probably what happened.

The other thing I keep reading is that they may have become entangled in the Titanic wreckage itself. If that's the case, finding them will not be that difficult, although an actual successful rescue seems highly improbable.

Although this is highly different, the last rescue mission I can recall that got this level of global attention was one those young boys in Thailand were trapped deep inside a cave with their soccer coach. Although that was deeply worrying at the time, the boys had at least been located, and rescue people were able to bring them food and water while they figured out to get them out. This one seems much less hopeful, unfortunately.

Jeff,

I understand the tender ship lost contact with the submersible halfway down.   I am not sure what the company's procedure is when that happens.  Normally the loss of such a function would scrub the mission and require an immediate return to the surface.  Since this is a company operating for profit and without regulatory oversight, I can't say they didn't continue with the mission minus communications with the tender vessel.  In my research, I read the submersible was supposed to check in every 15 minutes.  So the loss of communications would be known pretty quickly.

[DaveBrown74]

Jeff,

I understand the tender ship lost contact with the submersible halfway down.   I am not sure what the company's procedure is when that happens.  Normally the loss of such a function would scrub the mission and require an immediate return to the surface.  Since this is a company operating for profit and without regulatory oversight, I can't say they didn't continue with the mission minus communications with the tender vessel.  In my research, I read the submersible was supposed to check in every 15 minutes.  So the loss of communications would be known pretty quickly.

I read that too. Exactly as you said, the every 15 minutes "ping" stopped pretty quickly. So whatever went wrong seemingly happened quite a while ago.

One question - if there was an implosion/collapse of the sub, leading to near-instant death of those onboard, would there not have been various debris and other objects that are buoyant and floated to the surface, easily viewable by drones, helicopters, etc? I have no idea if that would have happened - I am just asking. I mean there are/were items on board and perhaps part of the structure itself that are buoyant, no? If the whole thing broke up under the immense atmospheric pressure of the water, wouldn't some of the parts have maybe floated all the way up?

[MightyGiants]

I read that too. Exactly as you said, the every 15 minutes "ping" stopped pretty quickly. So whatever went wrong seemingly happened quite a while ago.

One question - if there was an implosion/collapse of the sub, leading to near-instant death of those onboard, would there not have been various debris and other objects that are buoyant and floated to the surface, easily viewable by drones, helicopters, etc? I have no idea if that would have happened - I am just asking. I mean there are/were items on board and perhaps part of the structure itself that are buoyant, no? If the whole thing broke up under the immense atmospheric pressure of the water, wouldn't some of the parts have maybe floated all the way up?

If there was a catastrophic implosion, it's possible some debris surfaced.  Although the pieces would be small and the ocean is quite big.  Remember they were a mile down from the support vessel so where it surfaced may have been nowhere near the ship.

I tend to think of the sort of failure where the vessel quickly flooded with water, which would have created a negative buoyancy situation (the air pocket that added to the buoyancy would have been lost) and the ship would have just sunk to the bottom.

[DaveBrown74]

If there was a catastrophic implosion, it's possible some debris surfaced.  Although the pieces would be small and the ocean is quite big.  Remember they were a mile down from the support vessel so where it surfaced may have been nowhere near the ship.

I tend to think of the sort of failure where the vessel quickly flooded with water, which would have created a negative buoyancy situation (the air pocket that added to the buoyancy would have been lost) and the ship would have just sunk to the bottom.

All makes sense, thanks. Good point about the likely vastness of the area where any (relatively small) debris might have surfaced, given the distance to the bottom (or wherever they were when the malfunction occurred).

My understanding is there are no known vehicles in the area capable of a rescue in this situation. Nor is there any such vehicle in existence that can be manned. It will have to be a remotely controlled device somehow, and I don't know where the closest one even is.

Even if some or all of these 5 individuals are still alive, and even if the sub is located (say in the next 8 or so hours), an actual successful rescue of them in time seems extremely improbable, bordering on impossible. I hope I'm wrong about that but it's just hard to envision based on what I have read.

[DaveBrown74]

Just read this comment in the comments section of the latest WSJ article. It is written by someone claiming to have worked on submarines (presumably ex-military):


"As someone who served on submarines, traveling under the surface of the ocean is a life filled with risks (fire and flooding being at the top of the list). If they have been catastrophically lost, the best case would be an implosion due to atmospheric pressure as that would be instantaneous. But, as this submersible ( I don't equate it to a submarine) was rated for extremely deep depths, I'm not sure it was caused by an implosion and lean towards either a fire or flooding. Regardless of their levels of wealth, I'm saddened by their situation. "

[Jclayton92]

Man bootleg submarine controlled by a Nintendo controller.

I saw the document they have to sign. It basically says this sub is made by duct tape and not certified by anyone and if you die its your fault for getting in the rickety sub.

[DaveBrown74]

Man bootleg submarine controlled by a Nintendo controller.

I saw the document they have to sign. It basically says this sub is made by duct tape and not certified by anyone and if you die its your fault for getting in the rickety sub.

I will say, the pictures of the $30 Nintendo X-Box controller used to control the sub made me shudder a little when I saw them.

[MightyGiants]

They are reporting noises in the ocean in the search area.  Not sure what that means