I have been bouncing this around in my mind. From Daboll and Schoen's perspective, the QB situation is one of chance/odds.
Say the goal is to get top-10 production from the QB position in the next few seasons (if they don't, Daboll and possibly Schoen will likely be out of work).
Your options at this point:
1) Draft an elite WR at 6, do your best to fix the O-line, and ride with Jones. Now, I give the chances of this working (getting the top-10 production) at 10% to 20%. Now they could draft a quarterback in round 2 (or trade for one), which might bump these odds up by another 5% (because the 2nd rounder or traded guy plays well). So, depending on how the Giants view DJ's potential on the field and his ability to stay on the field, you are looking at 15% to 25%
2) Last year, a Colts fan (they were picking 4) ran the numbers on success for drafting a QB 2-6, and that came out to 20%. I would push these odds down a bit (say 5%) because the Giants will not get their true number 1 receiver, and the line is still in question. There is still a chance that DJ stays healthy and returns or betters his 2022 numbers, but without the WR, these odds may be closer to 5%. So, the boost and the drag cancel each other out, and leaves this at about 20%
I have been operating to some degree on the belief the Giants would go QB with pick 6, but when you run the numbers, maybe they take a flyer with a lower-picked QB and see what happens with Jones with proper support. I am not saying that's the way to go, but I could see how the team could believe it's the way to go.
Here is the drafting QB success breakdown
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2023/04/18/colts-what-are-the-odds-colts-get-starting-qb-in-the-2023-nfl-draft/70123423007/#:~:text=So%2C%20by%20my%20count%2C%20roughly,Mayfield)%20%E2%80%93%20is%20far%20lower.
But if they pass on a QB they could have taken and that QB goes on to be a success, it's end of any legacy Schoen could ever hope on having. They will get at least a year's pass from people if they do pick a QB knowing a QB won't turn it around in one year. If they don't take a QB, stick with the already mediocre status quo and nothing changes. Sayonara.
Quote from: katkavage on February 27, 2024, 01:27:43 PMBut if they pass on a QB they could have taken and that QB goes on to be a success, it's end of any legacy Schoen could ever hope on having. They will get at least a year's pass from people if they do pick a QB knowing a QB won't turn it around in one year. If they don't take a QB, stick with the already mediocre status quo and nothing changes. Sayonara.
To your point, if there is a QB prospect that Schoen and Daboll believe he can't miss and he is within reach, I think the odds argument I laid out goes out the window. Most of what I wrote was based on the assumption that while there are nice QB prospects, all of them come with foreseeable paths to failure or mediocrity.
Quote from: katkavage on February 27, 2024, 01:27:43 PMBut if they pass on a QB they could have taken and that QB goes on to be a success, it's end of any legacy Schoen could ever hope on having. They will get at least a year's pass from people if they do pick a QB knowing a QB won't turn it around in one year. If they don't take a QB, stick with the already mediocre status quo and nothing changes. Sayonara.
kat: OK, but failing to draft a QB who turns out well is not nearly as damaging to a GM's legacy as missing on a QB for whom you use a top-ten first-round pick.
Also, passing up a really good QB has no bad effect on the odds that your existing starter might succeed.
In fact, it can help the current QB's chances if they instead draft a difference-maker on offense.
In addition, even the vast majority of 1st round QB's take over a year to make a measurable impact.
I think it's smart to NOT draft a QB unless you seriously believe none of your current QB's stand a good chance of success -or- you see a QB you believe in without a doubt. So if they do take a QB then I assume at least one of the those possibilities is correct.
Applying that approach to the Giants, if Schoen does take a QB, either he thinks our current QB's have no shot at NFL success, or he thinks he has found a can't-miss player, or both.
Bob
PS. Apparently, while I was typing all this, Rich posted mostly the same thing. Sorry for the duplication.
Quote from: Bob In PA on February 27, 2024, 02:14:17 PMkat: OK, but failing to draft a QB who turns out well is not nearly as damaging to a GM's legacy as missing on a QB for whom you use a top-ten first-round pick.
Also, passing up a really good QB has no bad effect on the odds that your existing starter might succeed.
In fact, it can help the current QB's chances if they instead draft a difference-maker on offense.
In addition, even the vast majority of 1st round QB's take over a year to make a measurable impact.
I think it's smart to NOT draft a QB unless you seriously believe none of your current QB's stand a good chance of success -or- you see a QB you believe in without a doubt. So if they do take a QB then I assume at least one of the those possibilities is correct.
Applying that approach to the Giants, if Schoen does take a QB, either he thinks our current QB's have no shot at NFL success, or he thinks he has found a can't-miss player, or both.
Bob
PS. Apparently, while I was typing all this, Rich posted mostly the same thing. Sorry for the duplication.
Well of course they shouldn't draft a QB unless they do feel that. His career is on the line either way. It's a high risk business. Schoen is young and has no track record really. What he does here will either elevate him or not. The one thing he has to do is think independently. I know there are powerful presences in the Giants organization. He has to shut all that out and be his own man.
Quote from: katkavage on February 27, 2024, 02:26:48 PMWell of course they shouldn't draft a QB unless they do feel that. His career is on the line either way. It's a high risk business. Schoen is young and has no track record really. What he does here will either elevate him or not. The one thing he has to do is think independently. I know there are powerful presences in the Giants organization. He has to shut all that out and be his own man.
kat: Agree with all of that 100 percent. Bob
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 27, 2024, 01:05:00 PM1) Draft an elite WR at 6, do your best to fix the O-line, and ride with Jones. Now, I give the chances of this working (getting the top-10 production) at 10% to 20%. Now they could draft a quarterback in round 2 (or trade for one), which might bump these odds up by another 5% (because the 2nd rounder or traded guy plays well). So, depending on how the Giants view DJ's potential on the field and his ability to stay on the field, you are looking at 15% to 25%.
I think the framing of this exercise is wrong in that I think top 10 QB play in the next 1-2 years is borderline impossible. The only scenario by which I see the Giants getting top 10 QB play is drafting one at #6 and having him be Stroud-level right out of the gate, which will be extremely difficult without a #1 WR.
The bottom of the top 10 are guys like Herbert, Tua, Goff. Do you honestly see any chance in hell of the Giants being at that level next year? Because I don't.
I also disagree with the notion that a 2nd round pick in this draft has a 5% better chance than DJ to succeed with a #1 WR and improved OL. I'd say it'd be more like a 5-10% chance for DJ to be Goff-level with a #1 WR and improved OL. And I think there's a 1% chance a 2nd round pick would perform at that level. Nix and Penix are just not that good.
Quote from: Stringer Bell on February 27, 2024, 03:20:41 PMI think the framing of this exercise is wrong in that I think top 10 QB play in the next 1-2 years is borderline impossible. The only scenario by which I see the Giants getting top 10 QB play is drafting one at #6 and having him be Stroud-level right out of the gate, which will be extremely difficult without a #1 WR.
The bottom of the top 10 are guys like Herbert, Tua, Goff. Do you honestly see any chance in hell of the Giants being at that level next year? Because I don't.
I also disagree with the notion that a 2nd round pick in this draft has a 5% better chance than DJ to succeed with a #1 WR and improved OL. I'd say it'd be more like a 5-10% chance for DJ to be Goff-level with a #1 WR and improved OL. And I think there's a 1% chance a 2nd round pick would perform at that level. Nix and Penix are just not that good.
No matter who they draft, who they acquire, they will not be at that next level next year. The point will be beyond next year. Will who they draft help make the team a winner in 2025 and beyond? Next year is gone no matter what. Let's just look at who has potential and can make the team a winner after next year.
Quote from: katkavage on February 27, 2024, 03:25:26 PMNo matter who they draft, who they acquire, they will not be at that next level next year. The point will be beyond next year. Will who they draft help make the team a winner in 2025 and beyond? Next year is gone no matter what. Let's just look at who has potential and can make the team a winner after next year.
Then it's an impossible exercise that further requires projection of next year's draft in addition to this year's.
They have no chance of top 10 QB play in 2025 and beyond by drafting a QB in 2024 in 2nd round or later.
They have 5-10% chance by sticking with DJ, drafting a #1 WR and improving the OL in 2024.
I can't give a percentage for drafting a QB at #6 in 2024, because that QB still won't have a #1 WR. Will we be in a position to draft one in 2025? No idea. Will we have cap space to sign one? Highly unlikely given their price tag.
And I can't give a percentage for a QB in the 2025 draft without knowing how high we'll pick.
So it's a fruitless exercise with too many variables.
CJ Stroud produced with a mediocre line outside LT, a mediocre running game, a 5th rd wr, and a couple #2 wrs, and a good TE.
A great Qb changes everything. Draft a great Qb, with 2 guards in FA, a weapon either in the draft or FA and a couple mud level signings on d and this is a borderline playoff team immediately, then build the next 2-3 years with a cheap rookie QB contract and then start competing for titles.
Better odds that DJ doesn't throw the ball beyond 20 yards for the first half of the season, than DJ does playing at a top 10 level.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on February 27, 2024, 08:13:27 PMCJ Stroud produced with a mediocre line outside LT, a mediocre running game, a 5th rd wr, and a couple #2 wrs, and a good TE.
A great Qb changes everything. Draft a great Qb, with 2 guards in FA, a weapon either in the draft or FA and a couple mud level signings on d and this is a borderline playoff team immediately, then build the next 2-3 years with a cheap rookie QB contract and then start competing for titles.
Better odds that DJ doesn't throw the ball beyond 20 yards for the first half of the season, than DJ does playing at a top 10 level.
Jess,
CJ had a much better support system than you think. Look at this PFF lineup.
(https://i.imgur.com/gsevK52.png)
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 27, 2024, 08:24:49 PMJess,
CJ had a much better support system than you think. Look at this PFF lineup.
(https://i.imgur.com/gsevK52.png)
That's how they played with the benefit of CJ Stroud, Noah Brown and Nico Collins had done nothing the years before this past year, Tank Dell was a 5th rd rookie. All of them greatly benefited from CJ Stroud in the same way the Giants would if we drafted the guy.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on February 28, 2024, 08:09:43 AMThat's how they played with the benefit of CJ Stroud, Noah Brown and Nico Collins had done nothing the years before this past year, Tank Dell was a 5th rd rookie. All of them greatly benefited from CJ Stroud in the same way the Giants would if we drafted the guy.
How did you determine what percentage of the improved play was natural player improvement versus the new coaching staff versus the new rookie QB?
There's a clip going around twitter of Beane (Schoen's former boss) discussing trading so much to get Josh Allen and his reasoning boiled down to "Either he works out and nobody gives a sh*t how much it cost to get him, or he doesn't work out and I won't be around here anyway". Which is refreshingly honest.
That's relevant to this situation because Daboll/Schoen are in a similar situation now, though not exactly the same because every team at the top of this draft needs a QB so they can't really trade up there to get one. They could potentially take McCarthy at 6 though and similarly if he works out nobody will care that he was picked higher than most thought he should and if he fails they'll all be fired anyway.
When you look at it through the prism of what's the most reasonable thing to do for the team I still don't think taking McCarthy at 6 is the right thing to do. I don't feel strongly enough that he's going to turn into a real stud, although I do see some potential there. (I have him ranked over Maye at this point). But when you look at it through the prism of a GM that's given a mixed bag of results after 2 years you can see why he might say screw it either we get our QB for the next decade and I've got job security forever or he sucks and I'm fired anyway so I don't have to sit around and try to fix it.
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 27, 2024, 01:05:00 PMI have been bouncing this around in my mind. From Daboll and Schoen's perspective, the QB situation is one of chance/odds.
Say the goal is to get top-10 production from the QB position in the next few seasons (if they don't, Daboll and possibly Schoen will likely be out of work).
Your options at this point:
1) Draft an elite WR at 6, do your best to fix the O-line, and ride with Jones. Now, I give the chances of this working (getting the top-10 production) at 10% to 20%. Now they could draft a quarterback in round 2 (or trade for one), which might bump these odds up by another 5% (because the 2nd rounder or traded guy plays well). So, depending on how the Giants view DJ's potential on the field and his ability to stay on the field, you are looking at 15% to 25%
2) Last year, a Colts fan (they were picking 4) ran the numbers on success for drafting a QB 2-6, and that came out to 20%. I would push these odds down a bit (say 5%) because the Giants will not get their true number 1 receiver, and the line is still in question. There is still a chance that DJ stays healthy and returns or betters his 2022 numbers, but without the WR, these odds may be closer to 5%. So, the boost and the drag cancel each other out, and leaves this at about 20%
I have been operating to some degree on the belief the Giants would go QB with pick 6, but when you run the numbers, maybe they take a flyer with a lower-picked QB and see what happens with Jones with proper support. I am not saying that's the way to go, but I could see how the team could believe it's the way to go.
Here is the drafting QB success breakdown
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2023/04/18/colts-what-are-the-odds-colts-get-starting-qb-in-the-2023-nfl-draft/70123423007/#:~:text=So%2C%20by%20my%20count%2C%20roughly,Mayfield)%20%E2%80%93%20is%20far%20lower.
Maybe an elite WR won't be there in the second round , but he could be . Fixing the OL has to be the priority and that is why if Joe Alt is there at 6 you take him.. I know, I know, that he was a LT at Notre Dame and Neal so far has not worked out , but Alt came to Notre Dame as a blocking tight end and developed to All American status. With a very good OL and with the receivers we have plus anyone we add in FA or in the second round , Daniel Jones can be a good to very good QB. There are not many QBs in the league who can run like Jones can and give him OL protection and a running game , let's see the results .
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 27, 2024, 08:24:49 PMJess,
CJ had a much better support system than you think. Look at this PFF lineup.
(https://i.imgur.com/gsevK52.png)
Who is the great QB you want to draft ? Are you saying trade up ? If so forget about having any second round picks because they would be gone in any trade up scenario
Quote from: Brooklyn Dave on February 28, 2024, 09:45:23 AMMaybe an elite WR won't be there in the second round , but he could be . Fixing the OL has to be the priority and that is why if Joe Alt is there at 6 you take him.. I know, I know, that he was a LT at Notre Dame and Neal so far has not worked out , but Alt came to Notre Dame as a blocking tight end and developed to All American status. With a very good OL and with the receivers we have plus anyone we add in FA or in the second round , Daniel Jones can be a good to very good QB. There are not many QBs in the league who can run like Jones can and give him OL protection and a running game , let's see the results .
I am a strong believer in a good offensive line. That said, once a team has their LT, I am leary of spending more high-round picks on the line. The difference in the contribution between an NFL-adequate O-linemen and an elite one is minimal compared to the difference in contribution between an NFL-adequate WR and an elite one.
Quote from: Brooklyn Dave on February 28, 2024, 09:49:00 AMWho is the great QB you want to draft ? Are you saying trade up ? If so forget about having any second round picks because they would be gone in any trade up scenario
I am not an advocate of trading up. The Giants lack talent all over their roster. The last thing they need to do is reduce that talent level moving forward by spending all the draft capital on a QB.
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 28, 2024, 08:18:38 AMHow did you determine what percentage of the improved play was natural player improvement versus the new coaching staff versus the new rookie QB?
Nico collins had 400 yards his first 2 years and then a 1000 with stroud, Noah Brown beat his career high of 555 with Dallas by 12 yards this past year in Houston. Dell had 700 as a rookie before Injury. We have better skill players than the Texans, the only difference being the Qb position.
Jones has never been a great Qb his first 5 years but he will be in year 6? Is that not the definition of madness, every offseason its the same exact thing with the fan base, just a ton of ifs and buts surrounding him, when no other qb needs 87 excuses to produce.
Quote from: Gmo11 on February 28, 2024, 09:40:10 AMThere's a clip going around twitter of Beane (Schoen's former boss) discussing trading so much to get Josh Allen and his reasoning boiled down to "Either he works out and nobody gives a sh*t how much it cost to get him, or he doesn't work out and I won't be around here anyway". Which is refreshingly honest.
That's relevant to this situation because Daboll/Schoen are in a similar situation now, though not exactly the same because every team at the top of this draft needs a QB so they can't really trade up there to get one. They could potentially take McCarthy at 6 though and similarly if he works out nobody will care that he was picked higher than most thought he should and if he fails they'll all be fired anyway.
When you look at it through the prism of what's the most reasonable thing to do for the team I still don't think taking McCarthy at 6 is the right thing to do. I don't feel strongly enough that he's going to turn into a real stud, although I do see some potential there. (I have him ranked over Maye at this point). But when you look at it through the prism of a GM that's given a mixed bag of results after 2 years you can see why he might say screw it either we get our QB for the next decade and I've got job security forever or he sucks and I'm fired anyway so I don't have to sit around and try to fix it.
There is a real difference in he situations. The Bills were talented enough a team to make the playoffs the season before they drafted Josh Allen. The Giants were so lacking in talent they were out of the playoffs by Halloween.
Quote from: Gmo11 on February 28, 2024, 09:40:10 AMThere's a clip going around twitter of Beane (Schoen's former boss) discussing trading so much to get Josh Allen and his reasoning boiled down to "Either he works out and nobody gives a sh*t how much it cost to get him, or he doesn't work out and I won't be around here anyway". Which is refreshingly honest.
That's relevant to this situation because Daboll/Schoen are in a similar situation now, though not exactly the same because every team at the top of this draft needs a QB so they can't really trade up there to get one. They could potentially take McCarthy at 6 though and similarly if he works out nobody will care that he was picked higher than most thought he should and if he fails they'll all be fired anyway.
When you look at it through the prism of what's the most reasonable thing to do for the team I still don't think taking McCarthy at 6 is the right thing to do. I don't feel strongly enough that he's going to turn into a real stud, although I do see some potential there. (I have him ranked over Maye at this point). But when you look at it through the prism of a GM that's given a mixed bag of results after 2 years you can see why he might say screw it either we get our QB for the next decade and I've got job security forever or he sucks and I'm fired anyway so I don't have to sit around and try to fix it.
In the scenario that the top three QB's are gone at 6 and a team traded up to get the third QB ahead of the Giants, the success of that QB could reflect on Schoen. If they then don't pick McCarthy if he's there at 6 and Jones' 2024 performance forces Schoen not to retain Jones, that will reflect on Schoen.
Drafting a QB in the second round is a risk too. Especially if that QB can't start and play well in late '24 or in '25.
The safest thing for Schoen to do is pick one of the top four that falls to him at six. So I agree.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on February 28, 2024, 09:51:38 AMNico collins had 400 yards his first 2 years and then a 1000 with stroud, Noah Brown beat his career high of 555 with Dallas by 12 yards this past year in Houston. Dell had 700 as a rookie before Injury. We have better skill players than the Texans, the only difference being the Qb position.
What about the new coaches, scheme, and sizeable roster turnover?
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 28, 2024, 09:55:40 AMWhat about the new coaches, scheme, and sizeable roster turnover?
You and I both know that nothing has a bigger effect on a team than having the guy, vs having some dude. The Texans won last year because Stroud played out of his mind, yes scheme like played some role as did the new coaches but when you look at the Texans as a whole, Stroud was the catalyst for all of that.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on February 28, 2024, 09:59:43 AMYou and I both know that nothing has a bigger effect on a team than having the guy, vs having some dude. The Texans won last year because Stroud played out of his mind, yes scheme like played some role as did the new coaches but when you look at the Texans as a whole, Stroud was the catalyst for all of that.
Over 4200 all purpose yards, 26 TD's and only 5 interceptions. 15 games for a Rookie QB. That's a year most QBs never come close to after 5 years or a career.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on February 28, 2024, 09:59:43 AMYou and I both know that nothing has a bigger effect on a team than having the guy, vs having some dude. The Texans won last year because Stroud played out of his mind, yes scheme like played some role as did the new coaches but when you look at the Texans as a whole, Stroud was the catalyst for all of that.
Jess,
That's where we differ. I have seen many a QB drafted who had the ability to be "the guy" only to see their careers crash and burn because the team that drafted him failed to support him (with protection and receivers and general talent levels, along with good coaching) and develop him (again good coaching and a good learning environment). We are discussing CJ Stroud. PFF stats show that NFL QBs faced pressure on 25% to 49% of their passing dropbacks. Consider the two top QBs drafted. Bryce Young faced pressure 40% of his dropbacks compared to 35.9% of his dropbacks. CJ Stroud had 62.8 pass blocking grade and a 81.3 receiving grade. Compare that to Bryce Young's 53.6 pass blocking grade and a 63.3 receiving grade. Young's coach was also fired in a season, which speaks to the difference in coaching quality. Is it any wonder why Young's rookie season was disappointing but Stroud's was impressive? I am not saying that CJ Stroud will not ultimately prove more successful, but when you look the support and development the 1st and 2nd picks received it shouldn't be surprising that Stroud had a good year and Young a poor season.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on February 28, 2024, 09:51:38 AMWe have better skill players than the Texans, the only difference being the Qb position.
This is so wildly off-base. The only position we have the advantage is RB, and Saquon barely put up better numbers than Singletary, so the advantage there is minimal and will be gone if Saquon leaves.
Collins is better than any WR on our roster, as is Dell. Brown is far better than our #3. And Schultz is better than Waller.
Stroud is excellent, no doubt. But he benefited from a far more talented group of skill players, as well as a better OL.
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 28, 2024, 10:09:30 AMJess,
That's where we differ. I have seen many a QB drafted who had the ability to be "the guy" only to see their careers crash and burn because the team that drafted him failed to support him (with protection and receivers and general talent levels, along with good coaching) and develop him (again good coaching and a good learning environment). We are discussing CJ Stroud. PFF stats show that NFL QBs faced pressure on 25% to 49% of their passing dropbacks. Consider the two top QBs drafted. Bryce Young faced pressure 40% of his dropbacks compared to 35.9% of his dropbacks. CJ Stroud had 62.8 pass blocking grade and a 81.3 receiving grade. Compare that to Bryce Young's 53.6 pass blocking grade and a 63.3 receiving grade. Young's coach was also fired in a season, which speaks to the difference in coaching quality. Is it any wonder why Young's rookie season was disappointing but Stroud's was impressive? I am not saying that CJ Stroud will not ultimately prove more successful, but when you look the support and development the 1st and 2nd picks received it shouldn't be surprising that Stroud had a good year and Young a poor season.
Not surprising that Stroud had a good year? Sorry, but given what we have seen other OSU QBs do, which is being unable to call plays in the huddle, the recent history of the Texans and the overwhelming evidence of rookie QBs struggling, I am shocked Stroud was that good. Shocked.
I don't know how they derive all those stats but I find it interesting that Stroud saw pressure on only 4% less dropbacks but the blocking grades were almost 10 points higher.
Quote from: uconnjack8 on February 28, 2024, 10:26:47 AMNot surprising that Stroud had a good year? Sorry, but given what we have seen other OSU QBs do, which is being unable to call plays in the huddle, the recent history of the Texans and the overwhelming evidence of rookie QBs struggling, I am shocked Stroud was that good. Shocked.
I don't know how they derive all those stats but I find it interesting that Stroud saw pressure on only 4% less dropbacks but the blocking grades were almost 10 points higher.
I think you have to look at pressures owned (at least on part) by the QB.
Stroud- 16.0%
Young- 14.7%
Quote from: Stringer Bell on February 28, 2024, 10:25:26 AMThis is so wildly off-base. The only position we have the advantage is RB, and Saquon barely put up better numbers than Singletary, so the advantage there is minimal and will be gone if Saquon leaves.
Collins is better than any WR on our roster, as is Dell. Brown is far better than our #3. And Schultz is better than Waller.
Stroud is excellent, no doubt. But he benefited from a far more talented group of skill players, as well as a better OL.
Collins barely produced 400 yards a season his first couple if seasons in the NFL. If Slayton had a good quarterback he would put up similar numbers, Hyatt with a good qb would offset with brown, and tank dell is Wandale with a better qb. So yes the Texans have a better te because Waller busted, but that's it. Stroud elevated those guys, you don't think Stroud would do the same for Slayton, hodgins, Hyatt, and Robinson?? He would have.
Quote from: Ed Vette on February 28, 2024, 10:08:21 AMOver 4200 all purpose yards, 26 TD's and only 5 interceptions. 15 games for a Rookie QB. That's a year most QBs never come close to after 5 years or a career.
No I agree completely, I'm just saying the Texans don't have better talent than the Giants, they just had a Qb play out of his mind that elevated everyone around him.
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 28, 2024, 09:54:57 AMThere is a real difference in he situations. The Bills were talented enough a team to make the playoffs the season before they drafted Josh Allen. The Giants were so lacking in talent they were out of the playoffs by Halloween.
They did make the playoffs the year before though.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on February 28, 2024, 11:26:08 AMNo I agree completely, I'm just saying the Texans don't have better talent than the Giants, they just had a Qb play out of his mind that elevated everyone around him.
How would you compare the Offensive Lines?
Quote from: Ed Vette on February 28, 2024, 12:13:05 PMHow would you compare the Offensive Lines?
Keep in mind the Giants were without their starting LT (and only good linemen) for half the season
(https://i.imgur.com/gsevK52.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/gJhRtHn.png)
Quote from: Ed Vette on February 28, 2024, 12:13:05 PMHow would you compare the Offensive Lines?
They had the same thing happen to their line that happened to ours catastrophic injury. The way they overcame it was with phenomenal qb play. Being able to stress the back end of defenses does wonders for the offensive line. Look at every single one of their olinemen besides tunsil and I almost guarantee that this was hands down their best season and they were pedestrian before.
Quote from: Jclayton92 on February 28, 2024, 12:34:28 PMThey had the same thing happen to their line that happened to ours catastrophic injury. The way they overcame it was with phenomenal qb play. Being able to stress the back end of defenses does wonders for the offensive line. Look at every single one of their olinemen besides tunsil and I almost guarantee that this was hands down their best season and they were pedestrian before.
It also helped the Texans that even their backups played better than the Giants starters
Quote from: Jclayton92 on February 28, 2024, 11:24:11 AMStroud elevated those guys, you don't think Stroud would do the same for Slayton, hodgins, Hyatt, and Robinson?? He would have.
The question wasn't "would Stroud elevate our guys?" Sure he would. The question was "are our guys better than theirs?" Absolutely not!
You're saying Slayton would have put up 30 more catches, 500 more yards, and doubled his TD output with Stroud? Don't think so.
Dell outproduced Wan'dale and did it in 4 less games. You're saying Wan'dale suddenly becomes a TD machine with Stroud? Don't think so.
The only one that's close is Brown vs. Hyatt, and even then I don't think Stroud is what makes a difference. Hyatt needs to mature as a WR, improve his technique and route-running, and become a more compete player. Stroud would elevate his stats a bit, but he's not going to help with any of those things Hyatt needs to do to improve.
Quote from: MightyGiants on February 28, 2024, 08:18:38 AMHow did you determine what percentage of the improved play was natural player improvement versus the new coaching staff versus the new rookie QB?
I think that's a great point. The offense clearly got better with Stroud but to say he made everyone better when they likely clearly developed on their own seems a stretch. My conclusion ia the offense got better because of a better QB as well as development of other players.
Quote from: Stringer Bell on February 28, 2024, 12:48:08 PMThe question wasn't "would Stroud elevate our guys?" Sure he would. The question was "are our guys better than theirs?" Absolutely not!
You're saying Slayton would have put up 30 more catches, 500 more yards, and doubled his TD output with Stroud? Don't think so.
Dell outproduced Wan'dale and did it in 4 less games. You're saying Wan'dale suddenly becomes a TD machine with Stroud? Don't think so.
The only one that's close is Brown vs. Hyatt, and even then I don't think Stroud is what makes a difference. Hyatt needs to mature as a WR, improve his technique and route-running, and become a more compete player. Stroud would elevate his stats a bit, but he's not going to help with any of those things Hyatt needs to do to improve.
Slayton has had multiple 700 yard seasons with Daniel Jones, so with an actual qb it would be easy to see at minimum a 1,000 yard wr. I'm not saying Slayton is all that but he's not horrible and obviously would benefit a ton from a competent Qb
Wandale had Jones, Devito, and Tyrod and still had 500+ and would easily have been significantly better, at minimum the yardage that Dell had with an actual qb.
Just look at the numbers from our Wrs in the Tyrod games, if he had played all season getting the bare minimum qb play our wrs would have comparable stats.
I'm not saying we have superstars because obviously we don't but the talent level between the two teams isn't that much.
When it comes to Odds, the chance that the QB you choose will be successful, by whatever definition, is no better than 50/50 on average. And that is why it is a daunting challenge for any GM to decide when, where, and for whom, to choose as and when needed.
Perhaps, that's why I have always been reluctant to assume the role of GM. It's funny but I sometimes recall the time when I struck the wrong note in a very important chord which caused my piano teacher to remark in his very German accent: "You zee, it is not zo eazy, the piano playing."
But then it is a lot easier when you get a Do-Over.
Cheers!
Quote from: Painter on February 28, 2024, 02:36:30 PMWhen it comes to Odds, the chance that the QB you choose will be successful, by whatever definition, is no better than 50/50 on average. And that is why it is a daunting challenge for any GM to decide when, where, and for whom, to choose as and when needed.
Perhaps, that's why I have always been reluctant to assume the role of GM. It's funny but I sometimes recall the time when I struck the wrong note in a very important chord which caused my piano teacher to remark in his very German accent: "You zee, it is not zo eazy, the piano playing."
But then it is a lot easier when you get a Do-Over.
Larry: After many years (too many for both of us!) of living through the draft, I have concluded that a GM should only draft a QB when he's willing to take the risk of losing his job to the outcome. These days, picking the wrong QB can almost inevitably result in a financial (and on-field) death sentence for at least five years unless the rest of the team is super-solid (and that is very hard to accomplish in the salary-cap/free-agency era. Bob
What you've said is undeniable, Bob. Indeed, it's reflected in their current situation which I view as a consequence of misfortune as much as it is of misadventure.
It began with the need to draft a successor to the "retiring" Eli Manning which almost certainly would have resulted in misadventure had they taken a QB, Sam Darnold in 2018. Only Ed Vette gets to complain that it wasn't Josh Allen, some 5 picks earlier.
Whether or not they were expecting to add Justin Herbert with their No. 6 pick the following year, his decision to return and not enter could be seen as a miscalculation for which the extent of its misfortune isn't yet fully determined.
Moreover, no matter how negative our view of Daniel Jones may be, we cannot ignore the reality that throughout his time at Duke and ever since with the Giants, he has had to play behind what have been from poor to worse Olines and with no more than middling Receiver groups as a result of mostly failed attempts to gain improvement through FA and the Draft. And very little has yet to change in that regard.
In no way is that intended to justify or excuse the Giants performance with DJ, once described as being a bad stats/good tools QB. Rather, it's meant to draw attention to the fact that he will again be the Giants starting QB with the question: Has his future beyond this year already been decided for economic reasons, or is that not the case at all? Of course, either way that does assume that they won't repeat 2022's, all bets off, playoff game-winning season. Which, btw, some folks here might think of as having been a misfortune.
In any case, my only interest at present relates to the odds, the likelihood of the Giants swapping their 6 along with three 2nds, this year and next, for the Pats current No 3 overall in an effort to get either Maye or Daniels. It is my view that no matter who would be their QB, they have too many of the same enduring needs on Offense to justify such investment and the always accompanying risk.
Cheers!