Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 08:21:08 PMI know there are some on our forums that frown on debate.  Personally I like debate.  I often find it's a key part of my process.  It helps me test and refine my thoughts.

I agree. Debate is actually healthy...

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 08:03:14 PMMatt,

I believe I addressed this in my previous post to DB.  Let me know if that was enough.

The follow up to Dave explained your position...took a few post to get there tho 

Rich,

I like Jones and have repeatedly stated he ranks between 12 and 18, which I think is high praise. However, when I view the NFL through a modern lens, I realize it's difficult to remain consistently competitive without a top 12 quarterback. A review of teams who pay mid-tier quarterbacks excessive money, have relative success, and can't seem to get past teams with Top 10 QBs.  I simply don't want that for our Giants.


I recommended the transition or franchise tag because it allows them to retain DJ without obligating future funds. To be clear, I want to retain DJ for the same reason the Giants did not replace him this year. They will not be in a position to draft anyone better; to that point, if there was somebody worthy of a top 10 pick last year, I sincerely believe the Giants would've drafted his replacement.

Moreover, the Giants are in great cap situation next year and can absorb the hit. More to the point, the Giants are not one year away from winning a championship. They might need another year and another shot at the draft to get their Guy.  FA QBs are never the answer...

Now, if there's a quarterback they really like, I'm all for expending multiple draft picks to move up to acquire said quarterback.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 07:51:59 PMDB,

Two huge variables are missing to hazard any meaningful guess.  First, because of the issues surrounding Jones regarding talent deficits, the only ones who really can properly evaluate Jones are Daboll and Schoen.  Second, as has been mentioned previously, there is no middle-class salary tier in the NFL.  There are franchise QBs, QBs on rookie deals, and not good enough/backups. 

So you are asking to establish what DJ is worth (which I can't really say) and establish a new middle-class salary tier.  I am certainly not going to begrudge you your speculation, but for me, there isn't enough information to hazard a quality guess.

Rich,

The question has nothing to do with having the available information to glean what the Giants might do. It's actually quite simple. What would you, as a Giants fan, want to happen. We're not front office personnel; so, we can speculate without having the necessary information as there's no repercussions.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 23, 2022, 07:24:19 PMHence why I don't post these kinds of things myself.  But there are a lot of guys who provide meat to get eyeballs, not just pure clickbait that is devoid of content beyond just a throwaway  opinion.  Like the guy who does the detailed film breakdowns under 'Talking Giants' or the guy who did the Thib's breakdown over the last 3 games that I posted - I don't even know the name or credentials ofthe guy who runs 'The football scout's but I know his breakdown deepened my understanding.  I'd love to see him do a similar video on this last, monster, game Thibs had.  Or the guy who does the QB School website who did a nice breakdown after the London game.  Here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj_YlNSwUME&t=9s

For me, things like this provide actual value.

And considering that my position on Jones is pretty unique on this board, I think it's clear that I don't follow any of these guys as gurus, I do my own thinking.  You may not agree with my thinking, but it is my own.

Sounds like where in violent agreement, Rich.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 07:08:34 PMMatt,

I have already explained what I want (and would expect) the Giants to do with DJ is based entirely on what Daboll and Schoen believe DJ's potential is and what they expect from him moving forward.  In my opinion, it's sort of pointless to talk about dollars without knowing that.  You guys are certainly free to speculate, though.

To clarify, the analytics department may play a role, but it's highly unlikely they will be doing what you suggested, which is to set a dollar value based on past production.  The analytics department will more likely set dollar values for various levels of anticipated performance which Joe would use as guidelines in any negotiations. 

That's exactly what analytics does; it will provide a value relative to DJs predictive performance going forward. The number will be computed based on sophisticated algorithms that use literal thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of data points...maybe more. It will be up to the Giants brass do use this data or not; however, I assure you, the Giants analytics department will play a significant role in the decision to retain DJ, and recommend a relative value.  It's literally what they do. 

Also, would you mind providing a link to your thoughts on what the giant should do with DJ. I must have missed it would enjoy reading your musings.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 06:46:20 PMYour commentary makes it sound like you are not familiar with the concept of framing.  DB's question served to frame the issue in a way he (and clearly you) wanted to frame it.  Not accepting the framing isn't "deflecting.", as the wrong framing can often cloud an issue or skew an issue.

As for your promise, I highly doubt they will set his cap number based on his production, no matter how much you wish that to be the case.

Also, the claim about salary cap mattering is a bit of a strawman as I never suggested salary cap wouldn't matter.  Although how much it matters will depend on what Schoen and Daboll consider DJ's future potential to be.

Rich, I can't ask it anymore plainly: what do you want the Giants to do with DJ?  There's no framing or alternative motive. It's a simple question.

So, the Giants million-dollar analytics department doesn't have any culpability in the Giants biggest decision in the last five years? They're not going to provide the Giants decision making any relevant data, projections, or or relative value information? If you believe that, you clearly have never been exposed to Analytics. The analytics department will give the Giants decision makers a number however, it will be up to the Giants decide to go beyond that or not.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 23, 2022, 06:36:47 PMMaybe it's that lots of other professionals have given an opposite argument and included analysis while the guy in question makes his money by providing controversial opinions and just threw out a clickbait tweet without anything behind it.  I have a much higher regard for his brother Sterling, who used to do that show with Baldinger analyzing upcoming match-ups.  I don't see a lot of Shannon, but I can't recall ever seeing him doing any serious analysis.

That's true for everyone whose revenue and/or contacts is predicated by viewership.  It's all about content, regardless of the accuracy of said content. I'd recommend posters do their own critical thinking and analysis, vice consuming multiple podcasts.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 06:05:10 PMYou are correct, which is why I don't think this issue should be framed as how much to pay

I'm seriously interested in why you're deflecting?  Why are you avoiding the Question?  I also completely disagree the aggregate salary doesn't matter in a league with a hard salary cap. I promise you the Giants analytics department will provide a number relative to DJs projected production. In the NFL, salary absolutely matters and should be part of this discussion.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 05:58:02 PMActually, Matt, it's quite the reverse.  You guys are looking at Jones in a vacuum.   Schoen, if he is a good GM is looking at the QB position as just one piece in the team-building puzzle.   As for what I want, I am not so unrealistic to think I know more about Jones than the people who are directly coaching him.  Frankly, the only scenario that I would find disappointing is if Schoen wanted Jones back at a given price, but another team signed him away for more money.

.

None of this has anything to do with expressing what you would like to see happen. I have already expressed my opinion, I would like to see DJ back on a one or two year deal.

Quote from: MightyGiants on December 23, 2022, 05:28:20 PMI am not sure this is the best framing.   Either Joe and Dabs believe DJ is the future so you pay what you have to.  They think he is the answer, at least short term, so you offer what you think he is worth, or the don't want him and let him walk.

To me, it makes little sense to view this strickly as a salary issue.

This notion only makes sense if you choose to look at it in a vacuum. The Giants may wish to go another direction; yet, the relative draft position may not afford them the opportunity to do so. We saw this for multiple years with Washington and cousins.  We'll know if this is accurate if the Giants only offer a minimum contract, or use the franchise or transition tag. If they think he's the answer, they'll offer the multiyear/big money contract. 

Besides, this isn't what Dave is asking. Dave is asking what do YOU want.

Great idea, Dave!

Considering the Giants 2023 relative draft position, I think it's wise to bring him back via franchise or transition tag. I like jess' idea; however, I don't believe DJ will accept that contract offer, nor should he. He's worth more than 1 yr/$8 million deal.  If you consider he's a mid-tier quarterback, he's worth at least 25 million a year.  I am not in favor of a long-term, 100+ million dollar deal.

Quote from: Blue Fire on December 23, 2022, 03:18:31 PMBelieve what you will. I am placing DJs return at like 80-85% (barring some unforeseen circumstance as mentioned above)

This isn't rocket science; the Giants may be forced to offer DJ a limited contract, transition, or franchise tag him. This has little to do with their confidence in him as a player; instead, it's a byproduct of a weak 2022 QB draft class, and their relative 2023 draft position. In short, DJ may be forced upon them for another year or two.  I suspect a transition tag myself.  Yet, I haven't seen a single report that indicates the Giants willingness ti offer a five year, 100+ Million dollar contract. There's a big difference between the two paradigms. You're acting like the media reports indicate the Giants are ready to hand him a franchise type deal, which simply isn't true.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 23, 2022, 12:41:56 AMLast year they averaged giving up 2.2 sacks per game.  This year they have been averaging 3.1 sacks per game, more than a 40% increase.  In the face of these facts I would not give credence to any metric that says their pass pro has even stayed the same, let anyone improved.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/qb-sacked-per-game

So, sacks allowed are purely an offense line stat, which the QB shares no culpability? If the QB holds the ball for 5 seconds, and gets sacked, is it still against the line? It's odd you choose to only use one metric, while simultaneously disregarding all the other data points.

Quote from: AZGiantFan on December 22, 2022, 07:27:32 PMWell, the pass pro DID get a lot worse, so there's that.

By what standard?   The metrics says it's better than last year.  Did you see the post from Ed a few weeks ago?