Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Jolly Blue Giant on April 02, 2024, 01:54:04 PMGood info...thanks for posting. After going through a dozen of them, I still find Bowers intriguing as a possible pick at 6

"Bowers is one of the best prospects in the draft. He has high-level playmaking ability and the versatility to line up in multiple locations within the formation, including being featured as a motion receiver. Bowers is an offensive weapon more than a traditional tight end, with the open field balance, strength, elusiveness, burst and long speed to take it to the house almost any time he catches the ball with room to run.

His route running/hands/balance/toughness/vision/speed profile is special; few have that combination of high-level traits. The bottom line with Bowers is that he has the high-level athletic traits and elite ball skills to develop into one of the NFL's best receiving weapons. He can line up in multiple locations within the formation and present matchup issues for the defense.

Bowers lined up in multiple locations in the Georgia offense, including snaps at boundary X on the back side of trips; he was featured on jet sweeps to take advantage of his speed and run-after-catch."

From another site: "He can be utilized as a receiver split wide, in the slot, or in a traditional tight end role, offering flexibility in offensive schemes. Yards After Catch (YAC): His ability to gain yards after the catch is notable..."

Just overall, an offensive juggernaut and future All Pro. He's basically a bigger/stronger WR with elite skills to get open and has great character and work ethic

The history of drafting highly touted TEs is not a good one (at least for the teams drafting them). 

It soured me that Bowers refused to work out at the Combine and then didn't at his Pro Day, claiming a hamstring injury.

Finally, I like TEs who can also block and this is what Greg said about his blocking ability- "There were questions re: ability to run block as attached TE but effort was there, and that is the starting point."

Here is an excellent article on accuracy of the 2024 QB class


https://www.the33rdteam.com/what-does-accuracy-tell-us-about-the-2024-quarterback-draft-class/

Giants known top 30 visits
Adisa Isaac, edge, Penn State [Ryan Fowler]
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina [Art Stapleton, confirmed by Big Blue View]
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State [Dan Duggan]
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU [Duggan]
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington [Duggan]
Tyrice Knight, LB, UTEP [Melo]
Chau Smith-Wade, CB, Wash. State [Melo]
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan [Schultz]
Khristian Boyd, DL, Northern Iowa [Ryan Fowler]
Karsen Barnhart, OL, Michigan [Melo]

Pro Days
Marshall Kneeland, edge, Western Michigan [Tony Pauline]

Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina .... Large contingent at Pro Day [Pauline] ... NYG offensive coaches [Nagy]

Marcellas Dial, CB, South Carolina .. NYG worked him out after Pro Day [Pauline]

Georgia Pro Day [Nagy]

Oklahoma Pro Day .. Tyler Guyton ... Carmen Bricillo in attendance [Nagy]

Georgia Pro Day — NYG DB coaches [Nagy]

C.J. Hanson, IOL, Holy Cross [Melo]

Texas Pro Day — NYG WR, LB, DL coaches (Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, T'Vondre Sweat) [Nagy]

Combine
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Jaylan Ford, edge, Texas
Brenden Rice, WR, USC
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Local Day
Javontae Jean-Baptiste, edge, Notre Dame [Melo]

https://www.bigblueview.com/2024/3/22/24108799/new-york-giants-pre-draft-visits-tracker-who-have-the-giants-met-with-watched

Quote from: Philosophers on April 02, 2024, 11:03:56 AMGood point.  No you did not see plays designed with him to be a pass catcher.  For those, Michigan used Donovan Edwards who was really good at catching the ball as a RB plus has more speed than Corum.

I think it was Pat Shurmur who said in today's NFL, if a RB can't be a good receiver, he doesn't want him.  I really think that in the NFL this is a common mindset, but much less so outside the NFL. 

Christian McCaffery is the highest paid RB because of his receiving ability, not his running ability (although you still need to run the ball)

Quote from: Sem on April 02, 2024, 11:02:37 AMSo did I. Should be required reading for all.

I feel old in the sense that the title described the future when I first read it.  Now young people in HS will think it's some sort of ancient history story.

I read the novel 1984 while in high school.  It had a great impact on my worldview.

I had to research this to learn what Ric was talking about:

Digital kiosks are large touchscreens where diners can order and pay in-restaurant instead of ordering from a staff member at a counter.


Here are a couple of good articles on the topic

https://www.businessinsider.com/burger-king-digital-order-kiosks-sales-restaurant-brands-international-food-2023-11?r=US&IR=T

https://www.businessinsider.com/fast-food-chains-investing-heavily-in-ordering-kiosks-2024-3#:~:text=Customers%20ordering%20at%20kiosks%20tend,portions%2C%20or%20add%20costly%20customizations.

You can access them here.   Greg is one of my favorite listens, and he is one of the few pundits who actually who never worked in the NFL that I have complete faith in.   



https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-greg-cosells-latest-scouting-reports/

Lance Zierlein has his QB grades up and I thought it would be interesting (and in keeping with the theme of this thread) how the QB prospects compare to previous years.



Caleb Williams
USC
6.74   QB   Junior

Jayden Daniels
LSU
6.73   QB   Senior

Drake Maye
NORTH CAROLINA
6.50   QB   R-Sophomore

J.J. McCarthy
MICHIGAN
6.40   QB   Junior

Bo Nix
OREGON
6.39   QB   Senior

Michael Penix Jr.
WASHINGTON
6.25   QB   Senior


2023



Bryce Young
ALABAMA
Rnd 1, Pick 1   QB   Carolina Panthers   Junior   6.82

C.J. Stroud
OHIO STATE
Rnd 1, Pick 2   QB   Houston Texans   R-Sophomore   6.70

Anthony Richardson
FLORIDA
Rnd 1, Pick 4   QB   Indianapolis Colts   R-Sophomore   6.40

Will Levis
KENTUCKY
Rnd 2, Pick 2   QB   Tennessee Titans   2023   6.34

Hendon Hooker
TENNESSEE
Rnd 3, Pick 5   QB   Detroit Lions   R-Senior   6.23

2022


Malik Willis
LIBERTY
Rnd 3, Pick 22   QB   Tennessee Titans   R-Senior   6.41

Matt Corral
MISSISSIPPI
Rnd 3, Pick 30   QB   Carolina Panthers   R-Junior   6.40

Kenny Pickett
PITTSBURGH
Rnd 1, Pick 20   QB   Pittsburgh Steelers   R-Senior   6.40

Desmond Ridder
CINCINNATI
Rnd 3, Pick 10   QB   Atlanta Falcons   R-Senior   6.36

Sam Howell
NORTH CAROLINA
Rnd 5, Pick 1   QB   Washington Commanders   Junior   6.22

2021

Trevor Lawrence
CLEMSON
Rnd 1, Pick 1   QB   Jacksonville Jaguars   Junior   7.40

Zach Wilson
BYU
Rnd 1, Pick 2   QB   New York Jets   Junior   6.50

Trey Lance
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Rnd 1, Pick 3   QB   San Francisco 49ers   r-Sophomore   6.47

Justin Fields
OHIO STATE
Rnd 1, Pick 11   QB   Chicago Bears   Junior   6.45

Mac Jones
ALABAMA
Rnd 1, Pick 15   QB   New England Patriots   r-Junior   6.33

2020


Joe Burrow
LSU
Rnd 1, Pick 1   QB   Cincinnati Bengals   r-Senior   7.07

Tua Tagovailoa
ALABAMA
Rnd 1, Pick 5   QB   Miami Dolphins   Junior   6.77

Justin Herbert
OREGON
Rnd 1, Pick 6   QB   Los Angeles Chargers   Senior   6.45

Jordan Love
UTAH STATE
Rnd 1, Pick 26   QB   Green Bay Packers   Junior   6.36

Bobby and Justin do their breakdown of the QB draft class.

https://x.com/NBCSBoston/status/1774953794943492537?s=20

Quote from: Ed Vette on April 02, 2024, 08:10:43 AMAnyone agree with these  comparisons?

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/boston/news/espn-data-driven-comparisons-drake-maye-jayden-daniels-nfl-draft/

I went to the original ESPN article that is much more than just a comparison.   Here are a few of the QBs we have been discussing.

Drake Maye, North Carolina Tar Heels
Ranking from Kiper: No. 7 overall


Maye is a far less unique prospect than Daniels, for all reasons better and worse. He stays in the pocket more, and his career stats have very few extremes: His 64.9% completion rate ranks 60th out of the 331 QBR eligible college quarterbacks dating back to 2016, his 7.5 yards per dropback ranks 62nd, and his 3.9 TD-to-INT ratio ranks 38th. That isn't necessarily elite, and his highs weren't nearly as high as Daniels', but if you're a scout or offensive coach, you're looking at the combination of stats and stature -- 6-foot-4, 223 pounds, two years of starting experience (not too many, not too few), built to star in a "prospect's pro day" environment -- and you're seeing one hell of a lump of clay to mold.

Most unique traits: Maye's overall stats grow more impressive when you consider that opponents blitzed him 32% of the time (44th-highest), and he was pressured on 34% of dropbacks (75th highest). That's far more than most other top prospects, and it forced him to prove his mobility at times. He scrambled on 11% of dropbacks (22nd) and averaged a solid 7.5 yards per scramble (97th), and unlike other prospects who trust their legs a little too much, his 20.6% sacks-to-pressures ratio was solid (145th). His mobility helps him buy time and avoid contact in a very helpful way.

His other unique trait, one that might not help him all that much in the pros: He is far more effective against zone defenses than against man. His career raw QBR against zone was 86.9 (11th overall), but his QBR against man was just 63.1 (107th). He wasn't blessed with USC's or LSU's receiving corps -- and obviously you need man-beating receivers to beat man coverage -- but with players like Josh Downs (in 2022) and Tez Walker (in 2023) he wasn't exactly lacking options either.


Among 126 QBR-eligible quarterbacks in 2023, Maye ranked 10th against zone and 105th against man. That is a unique and, considering he'll face more man coverage in the pros, not entirely encouraging combination.

Best prospect comps: Jake Browning and Jordan Ta'amu. As a prospect, he obviously grades out better than both of these players -- he is far more athletic than Browning, and Ta'amu was far more of a statue in the pocket -- but from a purely statistical standpoint, these are the guys who most closely match Maye's combination of efficiency, pressure avoidance and zone over man preferences. This is discouraging in one way -- if you're drafting a guy with a top-five pick, you'd like a higher ceiling than this. However, Browning was successful filling in for Joe Burrow with the Bengals in 2023, and Ta'amu has seen success in both the XFL and USFL. If Maye is a much more high-ceilinged version of that QB profile, there are worse comps in the world.

Best pro comps: Russell Wilson and Jalen Hurts. That's what you get when you filter for (a) a scramble rate of 7% or higher, (b) a pressure rate of 25% or higher, (c) a completion rate of 60% or higher, (d) 11.5 yards per completion or higher and (e) a better QBR against zone than man. If "Browning and Ta'amu" threw you off the scent, I'd say "Wilson and Hurts" should put you right back on it.


J.J. McCarthy, Michigan Wolverines
Ranking from Kiper: No. 14 overall


McCarthy is the Rorschach test of the 2024 draft. When you look at him, do you see a QB with absurd efficiency levels (68% career completion rate, the 15th-best career Total QBR dating back to 2016) and elite decision-making (4.5 TD-to-INT ratio, 23rd)? Or do you see a game manager who was barely asked to do anything for a team with an elite defense and brilliant run game? Whatever you see, you might be right.

Most unique traits: McCarthy was outstanding at virtually everything he was asked to do, and he had one of the easiest jobs in college football. His completion rate ranks 24th in this 331-QB sample, his Total QBR was indeed elite, and he proved extremely mobile when asked to do so (9.0 yards per scramble, 7.3 yards per non-sack carry and a well-above-average 16.6% sacks-to-pressures ratio). But he also averaged a paltry 25.8 dropbacks per start, 312th among 331 QBs.


McCarthy ran only about three times per game, and his blocking was so good that it took opponents an average of 2.95 seconds to generate pressure, just about the lowest you'll ever see for a pro prospect. None of this has to be damning, mind you -- it just results in an incomplete picture. He finished his career with 791 career dropbacks; Bo Nix had 2,115.


Best prospect comps: Stetson Bennett and Tua Tagovailoa. I wasn't looking specifically for players with great defenses (and big leads) at their disposal, but Tagovailoa and Bennett are excellent versions of guys who produced massive efficiency numbers (they're second and eighth out of 331, respectively, in Total QBR in this sample) from fewer than 29 dropbacks per game. McCarthy was basically a lower-risk version of these two, averaging fewer yards per completion but with lower interception rates and better rushing averages. His physical traits (6-foot-2, 219 pounds) are much closer to Tagovailoa's than Bennett's, and he'll be a first-round pick because of it, though the lower-risk stats perhaps suggest a higher floor and lower ceiling than what Tagovailoa brought to the table.

Best pro comps: Indeed, we'll see if higher risk and higher pressure look good on McCarthy, but a safe profile can work in the pros. What happens when you filter for (a) a 2.5 TD-to-INT ratio or higher, (b) a scramble rate under 5% and (c) a completion rate over 65%, all from (d) fewer than 35 dropbacks per game? You get Brock Purdy and a late-career Tony Romo. You can obviously win games with such a QB, at least as long as you surround him with the type of quality he had at Michigan. What happens if McCarthy lands on a bad team that asks him to throw 40-plus times per game? We have absolutely no idea.


Bo Nix, Oregon Ducks
Ranking from Kiper: No. 5 QB


From a prospect with an incomplete sample, we now move to two of the prospects with the largest samples imaginable. Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr., threw 3,621 combined passes for 29,093 yards and 209 touchdowns in college, each changing their career trajectories with instant-impact transfers out west.

Nix played almost two completely different careers. In three years at Auburn, Nix was a bit of a YOLO-ball specialist, throwing 23% of his passes outside the pocket, averaging a relatively aggressive 8.2 air yards per pass attempt and 2.8 seconds to throw. He completed only 59% of his passes with a decent-not-great 69.1 Total QBR. He was capable of pretty moribund droughts. He was also capable of, well, this.

In two years at Oregon, everything was different. In an efficiency-heavy system (with a great run game at his disposal), Nix became the best nibbler in college football.



Nix averaged just 6.4 air yards per attempt and 2.6 seconds per pass in 2022-23, and he completed 75% of his passes with an outstanding 87.3 Total QBR. The combination of a new offensive system and further maturation made him a completely different quarterback. Nix's career numbers, then, will only tell so much of a tale.

Most unique traits: Nix's Oregon numbers were extreme enough that, in terms of career averages, he ended up with particularly low figures in terms of average air yardage (7.4, 300th out of 331) and downfield pass attempts (12.4% thrown 20 or more yards downfield, 269th), average pressure (24.0%, 69th) and sack rates (3.0%, 25th), and especially average interception rate (1.3%, 10th). The hero ball side never goes away, but this is most likely what you're going to get at the pro level, too.

Best prospect comps: Bailey Zappe and Trevor Lawrence. Heh, I would say that describes Nix's range pretty appropriately. Both threw at least 29% of their passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (Nix was at 31%), both got the ball out of their hands quickly (like Nix at Oregon), both escaped pressure with quick passing, and both were safe from an interceptions perspective. The difference between those two, of course, is upside. Nix's measurables aren't Lawrence's (6-2 vs. 6-6), but they're better than Zappe's, so we'll see if there's a high ceiling to match the likely high floor.

Best pro comps: Mike White and Tyson Bagent. Yeah, you need upside to survive in the pros -- you can't just nibble -- so in looking for players with Nix's profile, we don't find much. White and Bagent were the two players who came up when looking for QBs with (a) under 7.0 air yards per attempt, (b) a 62% completion rate or higher, (c) a 4.0% interception rate or lower and (d) solid escapability numbers in the form of a 20% sacks-to-pressures ratio. Again, it will come down to whether Nix can be safe and steady most of the time but deliver raw upside on occasion.



https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/39838352/2024-nfl-draft-qb-stat-comps-caleb-williams-patrick-mahomes-jayden-daniels-drake-maye

Quote from: AZGiantFan on April 01, 2024, 03:41:32 PMThat's the same list I looked at.  For my money the correlation between quality QB play and Woonderlic score is pretty weak.

That isn't the correlation in question.  The question is, could a QB who needs things dumbed down for him have a very high Wonderlic score?

https://x.com/art_stapleton/status/1774883288319996020?s=20

Quote from: babywhales on April 01, 2024, 03:35:21 PMAgreed, but Jones makes mistakes without the pressure, before the play even starts. Can not blame that on the line or anyone else.

Now imagine a football smart QB who doesn't process information correctly in the face of pressure as well as the absence of pressure, stop imagining because that is Daniel Jones.

Once you are getting smacked with a two-by-four that frequently (and not knowing which questions you are going to get smacked), even when you aren't smacked, you will not be able to concentrate.