Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: ozzie on June 04, 2021, 02:20:35 PM
I don't think any other sport allows fans that close. 

In golf you can get extremely close, within a couple of feet. In tennis, when you're watching lower-ranked players, you can get within 10' courtside.  Not as close as courtside basketball.  In any case, the closeness is what makes going to golf and tennis tournaments fun.  Otherwise, you get a better view on your TV.

It does look like there are UFOs.

But upon what evidence does one conclude that these UFOs must be from an alien civilization?  Isn't it far more likely these things are being produced by one of the militaries of US/China/Russia/Israel/India, or perhaps by some private organization like SpaceX?  (I doubt it's actually SpaceX, btw, too much to lose if they're caught.). My bet is it's some super-secret research being done by some part of the US military that no one knows about.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 26, 2021, 11:56:05 AM
I suspect these sort of dangerous work arounds (that prevent the loss of income) are more common than we believe or wish

Looks like you called that one:
"
The cable car at Stresa had been reopened in 2016 after renovation. But managers told the Carabinieri that the emergency brake on one of the cabins had been malfunctioning recently, braking the cabin repeatedly when it shouldn

This is an editorial from David Leonhardt, of the NYTimes, from today.  I think it's a worthwhile read and summarizes many of the points made here on both sides of the debate.  If you didn't already know, Leonhardt most assuredly occupies a left-of-center viewpoint:

"
May 27, 2021   

By David Leonhardt

Good morning. The lab-leak theory is everywhere. We have an explainer.


Suddenly, talk of the Wuhan lab-leak theory seems to be everywhere.

President Biden yesterday called on U.S. intelligence officials to

"My point is and it's pretty much been proven that a long-shot possibility has been overhyped  (to support a right-wing political agenda).  It is not as you and Bob suggest/imply that I don't think all possibilities should be continued to be examed. "

I agree that politicians will overhype long-shot possibilities.  The lab-leak hypothesis may have been over-hyped.  I'm not sure, to be candid.  That's a distinction I don't much care about.  Overhyped or not, I'm interested in where the virus came from.

But...are you saying that "all possibilities should be continued to be examined" including the lab-leak possibility? 

For the record, my guess is that--after hopefully lots of further research--the zoonotic hypothesis will eventually be confirmed as the most likely Covid-origin explanation.

As someone who's done research at the post-graduate level, I think I have a passing knowledge of how the scientific method works.  So I'll make some general comments which I hope can help frame this discussion.

The whole point of most of this thread was the question of whether there was enough evidence to warrant further investigation of the lab-release theory.  I don't think anyone has claimed that there was any proof at all of a lab-release. 

Now, some items I would like to emphasize.  First, facts and true statements exist independent of whoever states them.  I don't care if Einstein says "2+2=4" or if my next neighbor says "2+2=4", it is a true statement.  A lot of discussion on the last 8 pages here centered around who said what and what is their background.  Facts can stand on their own.  If they can't, then they are not facts. 

Next, I agree with Mighty that there are many times when a hypothesis does NOT warrant further investigation.  No geographer is going to start an investigation into whether the Earth is flat.  However, when a hypothesis is obviously wrong, there is an overwhelming lack of dissent among experts in the field.  Put 1000 geographers into a room and not one of them will agree that an investigation into a flat Earth is worthwhile.

Second, when it comes to technical discussions, virology in this case, we undeniably have to rely on the observations of experts in the field.  This thread, if you review it, has listed literally dozens of experts who think the lab-release hypothesis warrants further investigation.  There are many scientists who think it does not warrant further investigation.  If the lab-release hypothesis were as wrong as the-earth-is-flat idea, then there would not be a significant level of dissent.  Experts calling for more investigation include the head of the WHO, 18 scientists from pre-eminent universities including Baric who knows firsthand of the research going on at the WIV, and now Dr. Fauci.  To claim that all of these people have some right-wing axe to grind, or are have been massively misled, is simply ludicrous.

Third, this discussion is technical but there are elements of it which are accessible to non-experts.  SARS and MERS were zoonotic and supposedly Covid is as well.  However, as opposed to SARS and MERS, no intermediate transmission via animals have been found.  Dozens of thousands of bat samples have been tested and Covid has not been found in nature.  This weakens the conclusion of zoonotic origin.  Covid's intermediate mutations, similar to SARS and MERS, are also missing.  Covid appeared on the scene in a super-contagious form.  None of these observations, and many more like them, offer anything but circumstantial evidence.  But the layperson can figure out that the zoonotic theory of origin is not air-tight.

In general, the scientists who I've been around do not hesitate to call into question the fundamental preconceptions of their area.  They view the withstanding of such questioning part of the scientific method.  But they won't do so unless there is at least some indication of fruitful research.  They won't waste their time unless there is at least some possibility of an intellectual payoff.

Understanding the origin of the most calamitous biological event in at least a hundred years warrants a lot of investigation.  Until an airtight conclusion is reached.

 

And now Fauci concurs there is more need for investigation:
"
At a White House briefing Tuesday, Anthony S. Fauci, the government

Looks like Biden has joined the right-wing conspiracy theorists:

"President Biden said Wednesday that he has asked the intelligence community to determine the origin of the coronavirus pandemic, a major departure from the previous White House position that the World Health Organization should lead efforts to uncover the contagion

I think we can discuss this issue without getting into the politics, albeit that is hard.

For example, I do not think investigating this issue is a right-wing publicity stunt.  It could have been a publicity stunt, I agree with you on that.

You made comments on Trump (criminally negligent) and I don't think that is germane to the point under discussion.  (As an aside, I think Trump is an idiot who routinely says stupid stuff, a lot of it seemingly on purpose.). A broken clock can still be right twice a day, and Trump may have been right on this one.  As far as Trump goes, if he does turn out to be correct on this one, it just raises his abysmal speculation-driven batting average a couple of points.  So let's discard Trump...I hope...from the discussion. It's not about him.

What about the head of the WHO? Does he have a right-wing political agenda?  Do the 18 scientists calling for more investigation into lab-leak also have a right-wing political agenda?

Jeez, I've been on a cable car in northern Italy.  You always assume the engineering and maintenance would be top-notch.

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 25, 2021, 07:35:04 PM
A long summary but pretty short on actual scientific fact.  It pretty much confirmed what I have been saying-  The Republicans/right is overhyping the lab escape scenario just as the Chinese government is overhyping the imported via frozen food theory. 


Who would have thought America's right and China's left would find common ground overhyping longshot theories for political gain 

Do you think the head of the WHO has Republican/right-leaning tendencies?   I think you're reading political motivations into the discussion.  The dissent on this issue seems to transcend political affiliations.

Quote from: Woody on May 25, 2021, 10:06:55 PM
The heck with all the Covid talk.      What The Biden administration is doing at the southern border is nothing short of propaganda and unbelievable . By that I mean why is the Biden restricting all free press , Congress people and basically everyone from covering the souther border crisis .  Absolutely disgusting covering up the real story . Not allowing the American people to see what is going on there!
Isn

I don't know Nicholas Wade from a hole-in-the-wall.  His article is extremely well-written and states explicitly that it only offers circumstantial evidence for the lab-release theory.  I think the hallmark of reasonable discussion is to admit that your hypothesis is just that, a hypothesis and not revealed truth.  And his article does just that.

He may be a kook but his article isn't, it can stand on its own.  It's not just Wade arguing for investigation of the lab-release hypothesis.  You also have the head of the WHO and a bunch of other eminent biologists asking for the same further investigation.  Note that it is *investigation* that is warranted.  No one has said we can conclude that the lab-release *hypothesis* is corrrect.

Shutting down an investigation into the root cause of the most significant biological event of the last century is not warranted.   Not when the head of the WHO and a number of eminent biologists are saying it should be investigated.

Quote from: Bob In PA on May 25, 2021, 02:39:09 PM
Rich: Thanks. Another guy well worth listening to. I've also heard others dispute the so-called smoking gun observation. It's a bit over my head, so I figure my best course is to just keep listening to both sides.  Bob

I'm in no-where near a position to judge Dr. Anderson's credentials, I can only assume he is extremely well-versed on the topic.  He did have a hand in establishing the base hypothesis, in this letter of March 17 of last year, that the virus was natural in origin. 

"It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus. "

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Nicholas Wade goes through Anderson's argument in the Nature letter. 

Let's just leave it at there is disagreement among scientists...all of whom I presume to be good people, without axes to grind, who have different opinions on a highly-technical controversial subject.