Running thread chances that Daniel Jones (and Barkley) is back next season

[Rambo89]

SB performance over these 4 games is making it harder and harder to not keep him.

He is the safety net for Jones.

If Jones isn't back next year he will be a HUGE asset to a rookie QB.

IF he stays healthy and keeps on this path or better I agree he gets tagged!  JS couldn't let him go.

Jones injury I think drops him a bit especially if this lingers more then a week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I could see the Giants tagging Barkley so he can be a safety net for the rookie QB next season.  I can't see Schoen committing to a long term contract with Barkley though.

[DaveBrown74]

I could see the Giants tagging Barkley so he can be a safety net for the rookie QB next season.  I can't see Schoen committing to a long term contract with Barkley though.

I have Barkley at 5.5 presently for this exact reason. I think they could easily tag him. I think it's far from a given, but tagging him is pretty easy, especially if they're not keeping Jones (which I think the odds are they won't). I agree that Schoen is unlikely to give him a multi-year contract though, considering (1) his injury history and (2) the poor league-wide long term track record of handing out large 2nd contracts to RBs.

With him playing this well, it seems silly to let him walk. If they're not going to tag him for 2023, then they should trade him at the deadline for whatever draft capital they can get. Just letting him play this out and then letting him walk away for nothing seems a little silly. The only reason to do that is if they don't want to sign/tag him, but they're in the playoff picture and believe they can actually make a run.

[Blue Fire]

If the chances ONLY depended on them playing well then I'd wager the chances to be high.

However as we know there are many other variables involved.

A bit of an oversimplification but an RB only really needs 1 thing to clearly show if he is talented: a half decent run blocking OL (unless the run concepts are total doo-doo he will be able to show talent).

Barkley has an OL that while super inconsistent in pass pro (at the moment- gving up what seems like a record number of pressures) they have been much better in the run blocking department. So right now you don't have to read in between the lines as much with his production but you can clearly see it on the field.

A QB on the other hand needs multiple things.... a system that takes advantage of his best attributes in the passing game, a half decent pass blocking OL , and some half decent options in the receiving game.

[DaveBrown74]

If the chances ONLY depended on them playing well then I'd wager the chances to be high.

However as we know there are many other variables involved.

A bit of an oversimplification but an RB only really needs 1 thing to clearly show if he is talented: a half decent run blocking OL (unless the run concepts are total doo-doo he will be able to show talent).

Barkley has an OL that while super inconsistent in pass pro (at the moment- gving up what seems like a record number of pressures) they have been much better in the run blocking department. So right now you don't have to read in between the lines as much with his production but you can clearly see it on the field.

A QB on the other hand needs multiple things.... a system that takes advantage of his best attributes in the passing game, a half decent pass blocking OL , and some half decent options in the receiving game.

Do you have an actual 0 to 10 probability number for both Jones and Barkley, as explained in the OP?

[Rambo89]

If the chances ONLY depended on them playing well then I'd wager the chances to be high.

However as we know there are many other variables involved.

A bit of an oversimplification but an RB only really needs 1 thing to clearly show if he is talented: a half decent run blocking OL (unless the run concepts are total doo-doo he will be able to show talent).

Barkley has an OL that while super inconsistent in pass pro (at the moment- gving up what seems like a record number of pressures) they have been much better in the run blocking department. So right now you don't have to read in between the lines as much with his production but you can clearly see it on the field.

A QB on the other hand needs multiple things.... a system that takes advantage of his best attributes in the passing game, a half decent pass blocking OL , and some half decent options in the receiving game.

This is simply false and not as black and white as painted in the bolded.  There are other variables that factor into the success of their production.  A RB's success not only depends upon their offensive line but also can be hurt by the lack of threat of a passing game where defenses stack the box to stop the run as been the case for Barkley the last 3 games.  There are things a RB can do to help themselves with their own athletic ability and instincts.  Looking at the whole picture and not just the raw numbers make Barkley's early season production even more impressive.

[MightyGiants]

With Jones coming back the next week, I don't think the ankle will really count against Jones in terms of injury prone

[DaveBrown74]

Since Jones isn't missing a game, the ankle definitely should not count against his odds from an availability perspective. Having said that, it also should not be used as an excuse or crutch if he does not perform well. That would be double-dipping.

[MightyGiants]

I am bumping them both up to 6

[Rambo89]

Not moving off mine.  Need to see this more consistent for it to move up.  We've seen games where Jones has played well before but it's been the lack of consistency that is the issue.

[MightyGiants]

https://twitter.com/DDuggan21/status/1579160469298110465

[gregf]

I agree, surprisingly both are up to 6 for me as well.  Jones had a very efficient day on the big stage with bottom depth receivers.   He has played mistake free ball.  As of now,I'd do a 2 year contract. However, I would still not pass on atop qb in rd 1 if in reach, I just would not sell out hard to move up.

[DaveBrown74]

Jones: 2

Barkley: 5.5

Leaving Jones unchanged and notching Barkley up to 55%. Barkley was excellent. I still think this is going to come down to Schoen's philosophy on the positional value of RB and the track record of handing a big 2nd contract to a RB at age 26, but we'll see.

Thought about notching Jones down slightly for the injury, but I have no idea how serious it is, and if he plays next week then that storyline won't matter. I don't think his performance in the game prior to the injury was a needle move either way. He had some nice runs however was once again not much of a factor in the passing game, nor did the coaches show a great deal of interest/trust in using him that way.

Jones 3.5

Barkley 6


I'm bumping Jones up 1.5 points this week based on his strong performance and also on the fact that the team is 4-1. If they keep winning it will be harder and harder to gut the heart of the roster. There's a lot of football left though.

I've bumped Barkley to a 6 but I probably won't raise it too much after this week unless there is some telling comment from a Schoen or Mara. It's pretty clear that he's fully recovered and back to the player he was before all these injuries. So to me this is more about their philosophy on roster building and positional value than it is a week to week audition for Saquon. He's already proven what he is. Jones is the one who hasn't really done that yet, so his week to week performance matters more in my opinion.

[brownelvis54]

Barkley 6
Jones 6.5....

[Slugsy-Narrows]

DJ - 5
SB - 6

DJ moves up and a song performance v Ravens could jump him a few points

SB stays the same for now   Need to see how he bounces back after this weeks shoulder

It's moving in a direction that is making it VERY hard for JS to not strongly consider keeping this 2 headed dragon that is forming.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LennG]

After yesterday, Barkley---9
                 Jones ----7