Passing Production: Chicken or the Egg?

[Rambo89]

Hoping this doesn't evolve into another "you know who" thread but going to give it a shot. 

Think we all agree that for a passing offense to be productive multiple components of the offense need to be in synch.  My question for you all to discuss what is the most important component to have a productive passing offense?  What position does it begin with? Is it having the QB, Offensive Lineman or the play making WR? (Chicken or the Egg)

[DaveBrown74]

Hoping this doesn't evolve into another "you know who" thread but going to give it a shot. 

Think we all agree that for a passing offense to be productive multiple components of the offense need to be in synch.  My question for you all to discuss what is the most important component to have a productive passing offense?  What position does it begin with? Is it having the QB, Offensive Lineman or the play making WR? (Chicken or the Egg)

Personally I am of the view that no single position exceeds quarterback in terms of singular importance. I think it's fair to say that that is a pretty widely held view, and no doubt front offices around the league agree with it as the compensation numbers clearly reflect it. The best QBs make well more than anyone else in the league, and average QBs still make noticeably more than average players at other positions.

So I guess the harder question, and I think this is what you're asking, is what "unit" of the offense is most important. For me, I would still say passing. I might not have said that 25 years ago, but the rules are so skewed to favor the passing game that I really don't see how it can be anything else.

I'm sure many will respond with O line, and I have plenty of sympathy for that point of view because there is no question that it matters greatly. But if I have to pick one versus the other I have to pick the actual passing itself.

[MightyGiants]

I did a casual analytics study on this issue (I didn't do all the paperwork, but rather looked at the rankings for various categories.  I looked at the top 10 passing offenses in terms of yards per game.  I used PFF to rank pass blocking (I dropped Football Outsiders for pass blocking because I don't think the Eagles have a poor pass-blocking line as suggested by FO).  I used PFF to look at receiving grades of all receivers (WR, TE, and RB).  I looked at QB, QBR, and PFF grades for QBs.

Looking at all of this it appears that to have a top 10 passing offense you need to have 2 of the following 3

1)  A top 10 pass-blocking unit

2) A top 10 quarterback

3) One or more receiving targets in the top 25

All of the top ten passing units met at least 2 of the 3 and many had all 3

For reference here are the top 10 passing offenses



Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals
Minnesota Vikings
Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars

[Bill Brown]

I believe the same way Shoen believes. It doesn't do you any good to have a good QB if you can't keep him standing up in the pocket. Then you need the wr that the qb can tell "just go straight as fast as you can" and tell the online "keep those mother fuckers off me for 3 seconds so I can step up."

Bill

[T200]

I'll put them in order of importance, to me:

1 - offensive line
2 - QB
3 - WR
4 - running game
5 - play calling

[Rambo89]

I believe the same way Shoen believes. It doesn't do you any good to have a good QB if you can't keep him standing up in the pocket. Then you need the wr that the qb can tell "just go straight as fast as you can" and tell the online "keep those mother fuckers off me for 3 seconds so I can step up."

Bill

So which does it start with?  Having the QB or the Offensive Line?

[Bill Brown]

So which does it start with?  Having the QB or the Offensive Line?

1. Online
2. QB
3. WR

Bill

[DaveBrown74]

So which does it start with?  Having the QB or the Offensive Line?

I don't disagree with what PS is saying in principle, although as we have discussed here multiple times we have plenty of empirical evidence in the past decade plus that top notch QB play can transcend terrible O line play. See Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson (up until a year or so ago), Ben Roethlisberger earlier in his career and Rodgers earlier in his career.

How many offenses can you name in the last 10-15 years that had a bad QB but were top 10 offenses due to having a great O line?

[Painter]

Personally, I have trouble separating QB and Oline in order of importance as despite the well-off exceptions (e.g. Nick Foles), you can't expect to "win" without a very capable if not elite QB. And as important as is the Oline, the very best QBs seem able to win with something less. NFL football involves a measure of unpredictability and unconformity which makes any such rankings seem a bit simplistic.

Cheers!

[jgrangers2]

If anything, the last few years have probably shown that the importance of the QB isn't what it used to be. If you watch the Dolphins, their MVP (despite the numbers) isn't Tua, it's Tyreek Hill. He has completely changed that offense. If you look at what Diggs has done for Allen and AJ Brown for Hurts, it's not ridiculous to think that the things around the QB are more important than the QB himself.

Heck, the 49ers are winning with the guy that was Mr. Irrelevant in this year's draft. I said this in another thread, but there probably isn't much of a gap between the 4th or 5th best QB and the 15th best QB.

[AP44]

What we have seen in the playoffs recently is that if you have a good to great defensive line going up against a below average OL, it doesn't matter who the QB is...

[T200]

Personally, I have trouble separating QB and Oline in order of importance as despite the well-off exceptions (e.g. Nick Foles), you can't expect to "win" without a very capable if not elite QB. And as important as is the Oline, the very best QBs seem able to win with something less. NFL football involves a measure of unpredictability and unconformity which makes any such rankings seem a bit simplistic.

Cheers!

Exactly this. There are many ways to assemble a championship team and any of them can work given the right circumstances.

I care more about the adaptability of the coaching staff to put the players he has, regardless of talent level, in the best position to win.

[GMenRF]

I did a casual analytics study on this issue (I didn't do all the paperwork, but rather looked at the rankings for various categories.  I looked at the top 10 passing offenses in terms of yards per game.  I used PFF to rank pass blocking (I dropped Football Outsiders for pass blocking because I don't think the Eagles have a poor pass-blocking line as suggested by FO).  I used PFF to look at receiving grades of all receivers (WR, TE, and RB).  I looked at QB, QBR, and PFF grades for QBs.

Looking at all of this it appears that to have a top 10 passing offense you need to have 2 of the following 3

1)  A top 10 pass-blocking unit

2) A top 10 quarterback

3) One or more receiving targets in the top 25

All of the top ten passing units met at least 2 of the 3 and many had all 3

For reference here are the top 10 passing offenses



Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals
Minnesota Vikings
Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars

The oline need not be a top 10 unit but it sure does help.  Even like around 15-16.
Just be decent. Carl Banks elaborates on it in their segment here
https://youtu.be/Syxb8dUxhPQ
It's around the 11 min mark

He points out that for them to take more shots down the field, the oline has to hold up better.  They see it on tape.  Slayton has the talent to beat corners week in and week out deep.  The line just has to hold up.

[Ed Vette]

I would have to say, the Chicken.

"As a University of Chicago graduate student in 1952, Stanley Miller performed a famous experiment with Harold Urey, a Nobel laureate in chemistry. Their results explored the idea that life formed in a primordial soup.

Miller and Urey injected ammonia, methane and water vapor into an enclosed glass container to simulate what were then believed to be the conditions of Earth's early atmosphere. Then they passed electrical sparks through the container to simulate lightning. Amino acids, the building blocks of proteins, soon formed. Miller and Urey realized that this process could have paved the way for the molecules needed to produce life.

Scientists now believe that Earth's early atmosphere had a different chemical makeup from Miller and Urey's recipe. Even so, the experiment gave rise to a new scientific field called prebiotic or abiotic chemistry, the chemistry that preceded the origin of life. This is the opposite of biogenesis, the idea that only a living organism can beget another living organism."

https://news.uchicago.edu/explainer/origin-life-earth-explained

[Rambo89]

If anything, the last few years have probably shown that the importance of the QB isn't what it used to be. If you watch the Dolphins, their MVP (despite the numbers) isn't Tua, it's Tyreek Hill. He has completely changed that offense. If you look at what Diggs has done for Allen and AJ Brown for Hurts, it's not ridiculous to think that the things around the QB are more important than the QB himself.

Heck, the 49ers are winning with the guy that was Mr. Irrelevant in this year's draft. I said this in another thread, but there probably isn't much of a gap between the 4th or 5th best QB and the 15th best QB.

These are great points which makes me wonder whether you can make the argument that it doesn't make sense to have a QB with a big cap hit or invest a premium draft pick on a QB.  Has it gotten to the point where QB's are interchangeable?