The Analytical Case Against Paying Daniel Jones

[Rambo89]

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/is-daniel-jones-worth-a-huge-financial-committment-analytics-say

Interesting article that gives a lot of credit to the coaching staff for getting the most out of Jones.

[MightyGiants]

The numbers the author used do not match up with what I saw last night


https://twitter.com/JustinPenik/status/1628183071521484801

[Jclayton92]

The numbers the author used do not match up with what I saw last night


https://twitter.com/JustinPenik/status/1628183071521484801

His wording is really weird on some things.

For example:

"Jones completed passes at an identical rate in 2022 despite his target depth decreasing from 7.6 air yards in 2021 to 6.7 air yards in 2022." I thought he was using Air yards which is a next gen stat but instead of using Jones' actual air yard of 4.9, or using intended air yards which is 6.3 hes using some other metric that im not aware of which is weird.

[MightyGiants]

His wording is really weird on some things.

For example:

"Jones completed passes at an identical rate in 2022 despite his target depth decreasing from 7.6 air yards in 2021 to 6.7 air yards in 2022." I though he was using Air yards which is a next gen stat but instead of using Jones' actual air yard of 4.9, or using intended air yards which is 6.3 hes using some other metric that im not aware of which is weird.

I am familiar with the author Warren Sharp; he is an analytics guy.  That said, I found the article lacking.  Here is the thing about stats and analytics.  If you are going to cite a stat or analytic, you need to explain and justify why you selected what you did.   For example, he talked quite a bit about non-red zone stats.  Yet he didn't explain why he felt those were the important stats, nor why he left out Jones' 2nd down stats (I noticed he did first and third down stats only).

I really get a sense the author was driving the data to a desired conclusion rather than letting the data drive him to the conclusion.   

I mean, one oddity in Sharp's argument is that Jones played worse this season than the prior one (under Judge).  Such a claim fails all normally accepted measures and the eyeball test.

[Blue Fire]

Further context:

DJ's pass yards from his last 8 games (after adding Hodgins) projected over 17 games: 3838

I can only imagine what that would look like if they gave him talent anywhere in the range of what most playoff teams had this year.

[MightyGiants]

https://twitter.com/JustinPenik/status/1628482074427490305

[Painter]

Let's not forget that is the same DJ-improving/COTY-including staff who will decide Daniel Jones's value and worth to the team and its future. If we feel compelled to second-guess, it should begin and end right there as a matter of their judgment compared to ours-period.

Cheers!