PFF ranks Giants' roster in bottom third of NFL

[Painter]

Regression, sure. But not from what PFF seems to view as last year's roster. "Improved to a great degree but still lacking" sounds like a whole lot of double talk to me

Cheers!

[MightyGiants]

23. NEW YORK GIANTS
Biggest strength in 2023: Rushing Attack

Head coach Brian Daboll leaned on the running game in his first year at the helm. The Giants shortened games and made clutch plays when needed. Led by a healthy Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones' legs, the Giants bullied their way into the playoffs. Their running game could be even better if their other young offensive linemen (Evan Neal and John Michael Schmitz) develop on the same track as stud left tackle Andrew Thomas.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Back seven on defense

The Giants have a talented defensive line, but their back seven leaves a lot to be desired. Their linebackers finished as the fourth-lowest-graded group in the NFL, while their safeties were second worst. The cornerbacks were a little better at 22nd, with Adoree' Jackson being a bright spot. New York's end result masked the low-grading profile of this unit, so the team will need to be better on the back end to avoid regression to the mean in close games.

X-Factor for 2023: TE Darren Waller

The Giants sent a third-round pick to Las Vegas for Waller. He brings needed athleticism and versatility to their tight end room. Giants tight ends ranked in the bottom 10 in receiving grade, receptions and receiving yards during the 2022 regular season. Waller should be an excellent scheme fit working across the field in Daboll's system. Health is the key for Waller, as he's missed 14 games over the past two years after terrific seasons in 2019 and 2020. A healthy Waller would be huge for an offense searching for big plays through the air.

Rookie to watch: CB Deonte Banks

Banks was the third-ranked cornerback on PFF's big board. He is an athletic freak with the potential to be a CB1 if he's developed properly. Adoree' Jackson was the Giants' only cornerback in 2022 to play 100 snaps and grade out with at least a 70.0 mark. Banks fulfilling that potential soon would make a huge impact on a unit that plays more man coverage than any other team.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Under

The Giants are due for some regression to the mean. They finished 9-7-1 despite being the fourth-lowest-graded team in the NFL overall. They're heavily reliant on the running game, and their back seven on defense has major question marks. A last-place finish in the NFC East wouldn't be that shocking.

Projected 2023 starting lineup
OFFENSE   DEFENSE
QB Daniel Jones (75.8)   DI Dexter Lawrence (91.6)
RB Saquon Barkley (80.3)   DI Leonard Williams (74.2)
RB Matt Breida (69.5)   Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux (72.5)
WR Darius Slayton (66.0)   Edge Azeez Ojulari (59.6)
WR Isaiah Hodgins (76.1)   Edge Oshane Ximines (56.6)
WR Wan'Dale Robinson (72.0)   LB Bobby Okereke (73.3)
TE Darren Waller (72.4)   LB Jarrad Davis (57.5)
LT Andrew Thomas (90.3)   CB Adoree' Jackson (70.8)
LG Ben Bredeson (57.5)   CB Deonte Banks (72.0*)
C John Michael Schmitz (92.3*)   CB Darnay Holmes (44.3)
RG Mark Glowinski (65.6)   S Xavier McKinney (61.1)
RT Evan Neal (41.8)   S Jason Pinnock (61.8)
*2022 NCAA grade; **2021 NFL grade; ***2021 NCAA grade

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-roster-rankings-strengths-weaknesses-x-factors-rookies-to-watch

[DaveBrown74]

I think this is maybe a tad harsh, and there is probably an element of them being annoyed that their own grading system last year belied the Giants' actual record, but I am definitely in the camp that we could see some record regression this year given the tougher schedule and the likelihood of some of the luck we had last year to normalize.

Our roster is better than last year's though, so I don't see the collapse scenario that these guys seem to be hinting at (eg the last place comment).

[MightyGiants]

Pat Traina wrote a counter point to this article that Joe Banner seemed to take exception to

https://twitter.com/JoeBanner13/status/1657564831191375878

[DaveBrown74]

Pat Traina wrote a counter point to this article that Joe Banner seemed to take exception to

https://twitter.com/JoeBanner13/status/1657564831191375878

I agree with the point about rookies. Generally speaking, any projection of a team that counts on high level play from a rookie is frequently misguided. The exception to that (for me at least) would be running backs, who if they're good at all are usually good as rookies, but with every other position it's a shaky platform from which to make a bullish projection.

[MightyGiants]

I have considered this to a degree.  Banner is right and last season, the Giants had to count on many rookies such as

Starter Evan Neal
Part-time starter Ezeudu
Starter- Bellinger
Won'Dale Robinson
Flott

Now all of those players are no longer rookies

This year the top 3 are expected to play roles.

Starter-  Banks and JMS  JMS is a very experienced college player so he should be okay, Banks could be an issue

Hyatt doesn't have to be a starter


The other thing that struck me is there is no projection, just reflection.  In other words, they are considering the players through their last year of production.  There is no accounting for the development or improvement.

Last year the Giants were heavily handicapped by injuries.  Hopefully this season will be better (perhaps the new turf will help)


Last year I told people I had no idea what the Giants would do.  I could see them in the running for a QB by being a bottom 5 time and I could see them vying for a playoff spot (if things went right)

This year that range is middle of the pack missing the playoffs to contenders

[DaveBrown74]

I think it's a fair point to say that the vast majority of Giant regulars are either comfortably in their primes or young enough that they're still likely to get better than they were the previous year. Some young players simply don't get better though, like Will Hernandez, but most who have any sort of ability do. It is only rational to expect more this year than in 2022 from guys like Neal, Wan'Dale, Ezeudu, Thibodeaux, etc, or even still young players like McKinney and Azeez. The Giants have plenty of players in this younger age bucket and not many who are in the decline phases of their careers.

One big exception to the above might be Barkley though. While he did have a very good year last year, he exhibited less explosiveness than what we saw from him as a rookie. Moreover, he's approaching the age where RBs begin to top out. While 4.4 YPC isn't bad by any means, it's a far cry from what he did in 2018, and that 2018 O line stunk, so I'm not going to chalk the difference up to that.

Assuming Barkley plays on the Giants this year, I expect him to still be very good, but I certainly don't think he's a player "on the rise" anymore, and I think he may begin to show signs of topping out either in 2023 or 2024. Again, I think you can even argue that this already happened a little bit in 2022.

[Ed Vette]

I think many of us expected a possible worse record this season. Still, McKinley who was poised for a breakout season took two steps back due to off field injury and that hurt the unit. Love is gone so there may not be improvement there. There should be improvement in the ILB Position in Run Defense and coverage. I expect Neal to be a better version and Schmitty will at least be a better Run Blocker. Bellinger should be even better and a second season Robinson with more speed at the Receiver and TE position should open up the passing game. I don't see bottom third but I also don't see top ten. Although if healthy enough, I can see a team in December most won't want to face. We will have a good idea of what the potential is after the season opener, even if they lose as long as it's competitive.

[DaveBrown74]

I think many of us expected a possible worse record this season. Still, McKinley who was poised for a breakout season took two steps back due to off field injury and that hurt the unit. Love is gone so there may not be improvement there. There should be improvement in the ILB Position in Run Defense and coverage. I expect Neal to be a better version and Schmitty will at least be a better Run Blocker. Bellinger should be even better and a second season Robinson with more speed at the Receiver and TE position should open up the passing game. I don't see bottom third but I also don't see top ten. Although if healthy enough, I can see a team in December most won't want to face. We will have a good idea of what the potential is after the season opener, even if they lose as long as it's competitive.

Good points.

The O line is definitely a wildcard, and an important one. Neal was terrible last year (right up to the end), so if he can go from terrible to just "ok", that would be a nice improvement. Schmitty to me is going to be an upgrade to Feliciano (he's 24 and has played a ton of snaps in the power 5); the question is really just how much. I would expect our guard and left tackle play overall to be at least the same and very possibly better. So overall I see the O line being better; I just don't know yet by how much. The big risk to this in my mind is that Neal is just a pure bust and doesn't get better at all. I don't think that's base case by any means, but I think we have to admit that it's nonzero. His lack of even mild improvement between September and January was a little troubling. Injuries were part of that, I know, but it still bugged me.

On the receiver side (including Waller) we should see dramatic improvement, leading to the same from the QB.

Defensively, adding a good to very good ILB is a big deal. I also like our D-line additions of Robinson and Nacho. Those guys will help take some of the burden off of our two main guys. It will be nice to have a third DT who isn't awful - something we haven't had in a few years.

The secondary is the big issue for me. The idea that Banks will slide in to a starting role as a rookie and excel is not one I'm on board with as this seldom happens with rookie corners. Meanwhile, we lost a quality starter in Love, and none of our other young d-backs (Flott, Belton) are guys I have tons of confidence in.

I also wish we had added some edge rushing help.

Overall I think our D will be be a bit better but will still be an iffy D. We just don't have enough depth and we still have some holes or inexperience at some key positions.

[Bob In PA]

Starter Evan Neal
Part-time starter Ezeudu
Starter- Bellinger
Won'Dale Robinson
Flott

Now all of those players are no longer rookies

Yes, that's the major flaw in PFF's argument.

They assume the worst when possible and directly contradict their own method of analysis. 

Count the rookies.  How many played last year vs. how many are expected to start this year.

They're wrong... not to mention unfair.  The problem this year IMO will be higher competition level over all.

We'll be ok if we just follow the coaches' instructions.

Bob

PS. Also, there will be fewer draftees and non-drafted rookies who make the team this year compared to last.  If not, then maybe their somewhat dire projection will turn out to be more accurate than mine. As Larry seemed to suggest, the key will likely be going 5-5 in the first ten games (if possible) to give the team a shot at the playoffs.

[Painter]

I realize that it may stimulate discussion, but do we really give a flying f*** to what PFF or any of these pompous rarely accurate constructs have to say?

Given the reaction and amount of commentary, the answer appears to be leaning towards a yes.

Cheers!

[Sem]

One way to judge the quality of a team is to judge the quality of the players that can't make it.

[Painter]

One way to judge the quality of a team is to judge the quality of the players that can't make it.

There is some truth in that but what also of necessity must be considered in trying to estimate roster performance before a single snap is taken is the difference between ability and capability.

Cheers!

[Jclayton92]

23. NEW YORK GIANTS
Biggest strength in 2023: Rushing Attack

Head coach Brian Daboll leaned on the running game in his first year at the helm. The Giants shortened games and made clutch plays when needed. Led by a healthy Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones' legs, the Giants bullied their way into the playoffs. Their running game could be even better if their other young offensive linemen (Evan Neal and John Michael Schmitz) develop on the same track as stud left tackle Andrew Thomas.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Back seven on defense

The Giants have a talented defensive line, but their back seven leaves a lot to be desired. Their linebackers finished as the fourth-lowest-graded group in the NFL, while their safeties were second worst. The cornerbacks were a little better at 22nd, with Adoree' Jackson being a bright spot. New York's end result masked the low-grading profile of this unit, so the team will need to be better on the back end to avoid regression to the mean in close games.

X-Factor for 2023: TE Darren Waller

The Giants sent a third-round pick to Las Vegas for Waller. He brings needed athleticism and versatility to their tight end room. Giants tight ends ranked in the bottom 10 in receiving grade, receptions and receiving yards during the 2022 regular season. Waller should be an excellent scheme fit working across the field in Daboll's system. Health is the key for Waller, as he's missed 14 games over the past two years after terrific seasons in 2019 and 2020. A healthy Waller would be huge for an offense searching for big plays through the air.

Rookie to watch: CB Deonte Banks

Banks was the third-ranked cornerback on PFF's big board. He is an athletic freak with the potential to be a CB1 if he's developed properly. Adoree' Jackson was the Giants' only cornerback in 2022 to play 100 snaps and grade out with at least a 70.0 mark. Banks fulfilling that potential soon would make a huge impact on a unit that plays more man coverage than any other team.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Under

The Giants are due for some regression to the mean. They finished 9-7-1 despite being the fourth-lowest-graded team in the NFL overall. They're heavily reliant on the running game, and their back seven on defense has major question marks. A last-place finish in the NFC East wouldn't be that shocking.

Projected 2023 starting lineup
OFFENSE   DEFENSE
QB Daniel Jones (75.8)   DI Dexter Lawrence (91.6)
RB Saquon Barkley (80.3)   DI Leonard Williams (74.2)
RB Matt Breida (69.5)   Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux (72.5)
WR Darius Slayton (66.0)   Edge Azeez Ojulari (59.6)
WR Isaiah Hodgins (76.1)   Edge Oshane Ximines (56.6)
WR Wan'Dale Robinson (72.0)   LB Bobby Okereke (73.3)
TE Darren Waller (72.4)   LB Jarrad Davis (57.5)
LT Andrew Thomas (90.3)   CB Adoree' Jackson (70.8)
LG Ben Bredeson (57.5)   CB Deonte Banks (72.0*)
C John Michael Schmitz (92.3*)   CB Darnay Holmes (44.3)
RG Mark Glowinski (65.6)   S Xavier McKinney (61.1)
RT Evan Neal (41.8)   S Jason Pinnock (61.8)
*2022 NCAA grade; **2021 NFL grade; ***2021 NCAA grade

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-roster-rankings-strengths-weaknesses-x-factors-rookies-to-watch

I think they got a ton of our starting lineup completely wrong on defense and a few on offense to fit their narrative.

[MightyGiants]

I think they got a ton of our starting lineup completely wrong on defense and a few on offense to fit their narrative.

That they did