NGT - Let’s talk 2023 fantasy football

[Philosophers]

In 2022, I won my ESPN PPR League.  I loved my team.  Drafted well and made some very good in season pick ups.

Now it's 2023 and time to start thinking about players on our lists to keep an eye on or avoid.  We draft with a $200 budget so production per dollar is important.

QB

I am struggling this year to find an undervalued QB who may be on the rise.  One criteria I must have is that he must be able to run.  To win in a fantasy league you need a top 5 QB.  Jalen Hurts is on everyone's radar.  I had Justin Fields last year and he rewarded me late season.  He did it witht his feet more than his arm.  Will addition of DJ Moore really elevate his passing game?

RB - last year I finally drafted Austin Ekeler along with Miles Sanders.  I got great production out of my RBs.  I believe Bijan Robinson will get over drafted as Atlanta is much too dependent on a rushing game.  Does Saquon have enough left to be a RB1 with top 5 production (assuming he does not holdnout)?  Devin Achane is someone I am eyeing as a breakout player as I think Miami's passing game will open up opps for their rushing and nobody else on their roster impresses me enough as a RB.  Late season I picked up Isaiah Pacheco from the Chiefs and he was solid.  Tempted to keep an eye on him.

WR - I did not fall prey to spending a ton on Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase and instead got nice value with CeeDee Lamb and some up/down with Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson but scored huge with Christian Watson in season signing.  My prediction this season is that Garrett Wilson will be under drafted but will explode now that he has Rodgers throwing to him.

Who are you watching closely for 2023 fantasy season?

[DaveBrown74]

Great idea for a thread Phil, and a good time of year to be talking about it with Giants news-flow so light outside of the Barkley negotiations.

I'll address your subjects individually and then make a couple points at the bottom.

For clarity's sake, my league is PPR, it's 12 teams, and we use a snake draft format. I have been pushing for an auction for a while now, but only two or three other guys want to do it, so we don't have a majority.

Anyway:

QB: I agree that you need a premium QB to win a league, but I hate picking a QB in the first few rounds. For this year, in the 4th-6th round range I'm looking at Burrow and Herbert. Burrow to me is an MVP candidate who might be a touch undervalued because he got off to kind of a slow start last year and then he was missing Chase for a number of games. I could see him putting it all together and being right in the MVP discussion. Herbert I like too because he's talented and that offense throws so much, but his receivers worry me. If Quentin Johnston performs as a rookie, Herbert could be top 5. In the later rounds, the guy I'm most intrigued by is DeShaun Watson. While people are down on him, as a 9th or 10th round pick I think the value is enormous. Cleveland has a very good O line and an elite RB who can help set up great down and distances for Watson. Unless you think he's never going to be the same QB because of the massage thing (I don't think that), I think he's going to offer great risk-reward at his price.

RB: I had Pacheco last year and loved him. He is a talent, and he should have a big second season. Obviously with any KC RB, you worry about the way Andy Reid forgets about his RBs, but given how good Pacheco was in the SB I think that will have a lasting impact. Another guy I like is James Cook. With Singletary gone, his workload will increase, and he was very good when he had the ball last year. Yes, they did pick up Damian Harris, and he'll get some early down and possibly goalline work, but Cook is going to have a big role and has the talent to really be the primary guy in that backfield. In terms of premiere guys, I think Chubb is probably my favorite. With Hunt gone he has no competition in that backfield, and the Cleveland O line is great. I could see 1500 yards and 15 TDs from him. In terms of later round picks, I like Achane too, but I also love Charbonnet. I know Kenneth Walker makes it tough for Charbonnet as a rookie, but Walker isn't really a pass catcher so at the very least Charbonnet should pick up points in PPR. If Walker gets hurt then Charbonnet could really shine. I wouldn't use anything other than a pretty late round pick on him, but I've been impressed with him for the past two years now and think he could be a stud.

WR: I'm in full agreement about Garrett Wilson. I think others will agree though, so it will probably take a 2nd round pick to get him (at least in my league). I think he's a no-brainer. I could see him easily being a top 5 fantasy receiver and if he were top three it wouldn't shock me. Moving further down, I love George Pickens and could see him busting out this year. Granted, Pickett isn't a dynamic QB, but Pickens is a stud talent, and I think he'll be a good mid rounds WR who should be starter material in fantasy. Another mid-later round guy I like is Elijah Moore. He was a bust on the Jets, but playing with Zack Wilson and an ancient Joe Flacco isn't the easiest thing in the world. I could see him turning it around in Cleveland with Watson. As mentioned in the QB section I also think Quentin Johnston is worth a look this year. Keenan Allen is old, and Mike Williams is always getting hurt. If Herbert builds an early rapport with Johnston that could be a home run fantasy pick.

TE: I like having an elite TE if I can. Andrews and Kittle are the two I'm hoping to get. Andrews for me is a 2nd round pick and Kittle is more of a 4th. Kittle is actually amazing and puts up monster numbers when he plays. Injuries are always the concern though. In the later rounds, the one I like a lot is Greg Dulcich. He looked good when he did get a chance to play last year and was productive. He is now the TE1 in Denver, and with Sean Payton there and a full offseason for Russ to get his mojo back, I could see Dulcich breaking out. I plan on trying to draft him as my TE2.


As a general strategy point, the way I approached last year was I waited on RBs and focused on WR and TE early. I didn't win my league, but when everyone was healthy on my team I genuinely believe I had the best or 2nd best team. In PPR, having three elite receivers and a top TE is invaluable. I agree you also need a very good QB, although that can be done outside of the first three rounds IMO. With RBs, I draft them in the 5th-9th round range. I know that that's kind of a wasteland for RBs, but I think generally speaking between the waiver wire, injuries, and rookie or 2nd year backs who are undervalued you can generally find your way to having two solid RBs in your starting lineup most weeks. The problem with going with high-end RBs early is (1) they constantly get hurt and (2) in PPR it's really brutal if you're starting just ok but not great wide receivers like Mike Williams and Diontae Johnson. I would much rather have a start like Chase/Waddle/Garrett Wilson/Kittle and then try to draft the Pachecos and James Cooks of the world later. Just my personal opinion, but it worked well for me last year (apart from some injuries which hurt).

[Jclayton92]

Both Atlanta RBs had great year so stands to reason the rookie would.

Been thinking Travis Etienne as RB1 and Andre Dillon as RB2 since the pack don't have a QB really. I think 2 years after injury etienne really explodes and getting those two would allow me to get a top tier WR1 with my first pick likely.

[DaveBrown74]

Both Atlanta RBs had great year so stands to reason the rookie would.

Been thinking Travis Etienne as RB1 and Andre Dillon as RB2 since the pack don't have a QB really. I think 2 years after injury etienne really explodes and getting those two would allow me to get a top tier WR1 with my first pick likely.

I like Etienne too...  think two years removed from the injury he should break out.

I had AJ Dillon last year. He's a solid RB, and I think the workshare split between him and Jones should get closer to 50/50 over the next year or two as Jones is aging (albeit still very good).

Another receiver I want for this year is Olave. I like him a lot, and I think the upgrade to Carr will help him plenty. Plus second year receivers in general (who have talent) are a good play more often than hot.


Some guys that I am staying away from this year:

Keenan Allen: Has had a nice last 5-6 years but he's 31 now which to me is an age where almost every receiver starts to show real signs of decline.

Joe Mixon: Looked awful last year. I'm not sure what the reason was but I'll let someone else draft him. I don't feel like he's being discounted enough this year for how slow and sluggish he looked all last year.

David Montgomery: I like the Detroit offense a lot, but this guy is a JAG, and I think Jamyr Gibbs will be the man there by mid-season if not right away.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans: I'm staying away from Tampa offensive guys this year in general.

[Philosophers]

Etienne just never seems to bust out.  I have loved him since Clemson and thought he'd be a great back immediately.  Injuries hurt obviously.

The team I may look hard at for players is Baltimore. A new OC should put some fuel in it and with the addition of Zay Flowers and OBJ, I've got to think Lamar lifts up with more prolific WRs.

Nick Chubb is a good call.  He certainly has the makings.  Are you worried about any wear and tear on him as he has been featured a fair bit?

What about Jonathan Taylor?  Such a stud yet Indy's passing game was so horrible defenses could focus in him.  Will Richardson have a good year as that will drive Taylor's success IMHO?

[DaveBrown74]

Etienne just never seems to bust out.  I have loved him since Clemson and thought he'd be a great back immediately.  Injuries hurt obviously.

The team I may look hard at for players is Baltimore. A new OC should put some fuel in it and with the addition of Zay Flowers and OBJ, I've got to think Lamar lifts up with more prolific WRs.

Nick Chubb is a good call.  He certainly has the makings.  Are you worried about any wear and tear on him as he has been featured a fair bit?

What about Jonathan Taylor?  Such a stud yet Indy's passing game was so horrible defenses could focus in him.  Will Richardson have a good year as that will drive Taylor's success IMHO?

Chubb I think is getting close to the age where you start to worry but he showed absolutely no signs of letting up last year. I think he has at least one more year and possibly two more years of elite level performance, and his circumstances have never been better.

I think anything is possible but I think it's probably a bit optimistic to think Richardson will have a good year this year, assuming he plays. I see growing pains and turnovers for him in year one. I love his upside but I don't know about 2023. Taylor is a first round back still for sure, but I significantly prefer Chubb this year personally.

[Jclayton92]

I like Etienne too...  think two years removed from the injury he should break out.

I had AJ Dillon last year. He's a solid RB, and I think the workshare split between him and Jones should get closer to 50/50 over the next year or two as Jones is aging (albeit still very good).

Another receiver I want for this year is Olave. I like him a lot, and I think the upgrade to Carr will help him plenty. Plus second year receivers in general (who have talent) are a good play more often than hot.


Some guys that I am staying away from this year:

Keenan Allen: Has had a nice last 5-6 years but he's 31 now which to me is an age where almost every receiver starts to show real signs of decline.

Joe Mixon: Looked awful last year. I'm not sure what the reason was but I'll let someone else draft him. I don't feel like he's being discounted enough this year for how slow and sluggish he looked all last year.

David Montgomery: I like the Detroit offense a lot, but this guy is a JAG, and I think Jamyr Gibbs will be the man there by mid-season if not right away.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans: I'm staying away from Tampa offensive guys this year in general.

St Brown in Detroit may be a legit #1 this year and miles sanders may get even more yards this year with a rookie in Carolina.

Also I am absolutely drafting Mingo the stud Wr that got drafted by Carolina as its really just him and Sanders in Carolina with Bryce Young so I think Mingo won't win ROTY but could be the reason Young does.

[Philosophers]

St Brown in Detroit may be a legit #1 this year and miles sanders may get even more yards this year with a rookie in Carolina.

Also I am absolutely drafting Mingo the stud Wr that got drafted by Carolina as its really just him and Sanders in Carolina with Bryce Young so I think Mingo won't win ROTY but could be the reason Young does.

If Mingo is a day 1 starter that's a nice pick up as he'll slide through the draft.

[DaveBrown74]

St. Brown is a stud... reminds me a lot of Victor Cruz. I wonder what the impact of the return of Jameson Williams will be on him though.

Waddle and Hill will be highly drafted. Both are studs, but you worry about the QB situation there. Tua seems one big hit away from being done for good, and they have no backup.

Which receiver in KC do you guys like? Toney and Skyy Moore are the main options. I know everyone hates Toney but he might put up some numbers there this year if he stays healthy. Skyy Moore didn't exactly blow me away last year.

I love Christian Watson but I don't know about Jordan Love. I'll probably stay away from him unless he falls.

[PSUBeirut]

Love me some Fantasy football talk- have been playing for many many years and am in one of the best leagues I've ever seen for the past 7!  Great thread.

I am an auction guy- have done snake drafts many years but ever since going auction I'll never go back.  The amount of fun analytics you can do to get an edge is awesome.  I highly recommend the switch if you ever get the chance (and if you do, let me know I've got plenty of good pointers to share that I don't mind sharing with you since it'll never get back to my leaguemates lol).  First two years in this league we went auction I won back to back championships but now they've wised up considerably so it's been a bit since I've won it all.  We're a 12 team half-pt PPR and dynasty league.

Anyway- just a few random thoughts to piggy back- Definitely agree with the running QB idea- any cheap points at that position you can grab, the better.  I've got Trevor Lawrence for $1 to replace my Josh Allen $1 dynasty play (we can only use em for 2 years then they go back in the pool).  I think Lawrence has a high upside in Jax and may end up top 5.  He doesn't get nearly as many running pts as Allen but I think he'll improve in that area this year.  Ridley coming back certainly won't hurt. 

You mentioned Amon-Ra- he's my other $1 keeper.  Loved him ever since USC.  I think J Williams will actually help his numbers out as they are able to keep defenses occupied more.  Plus I think Jameson may be a year out yet from blossoming...I could be totally wrong on that, but it's just a gut feeling. 

TEs- I'm going to try and swoop up Isiah Likely if I can as an upside play.  That guy is a stud and I could easily see him being a good dynasty guy moving forward (we also allow trades for auction dollars so if I don't use him someone might pay me for him).  I hate TEs in fantasy lately.  Just seems like it's Kelce and then a bunch of crapshoot week to week. 

I need to do more research on RBs to make any kind of decent opinion.  They are getting more and more devalued in fantasy but I think that pendulum has swung too far.  It's all about touches for RBs and if you can get 2-3 that consistently get touches week to week that gives your team a hell of a solid floor.  The WRs I kinda see as the game changers / week to week upside plays whereas your RBS give you a chance to win every week. 

Will be following this thread for sure and would love to bounce ideas back and forth here on what you're hearing, etc.  The league I play in is TOUGH and they do all the research, listen to all the podcasts, etc., so it's more about strategy than IDing players that others haven't ID'd yet...

[Philosophers]

Welcome to the talk PSU.  More the merrier.

Surprised none of us are banging on Waller of the Giants.  He may really become a security blanket for DJ.

St. Brown is so much better than I ever thought he'd be out of USC.  I had Jameson Williams last season and I will do it again.  He will be in his 2nd season following his ACL surgery.  Once his gambling penalty is iver, I expect him to dominate.  One Lions player already said he cant be covered by anyone on the team.

Trevor Lawrence is popular these days but I doubt he will generate 5 TDs from the run again and I dont think he runs as naturally as other QBs.  Plus his WRs dont wow me but his HC sure does.

Gibbs is going to be the feature back in Detroit replacing Swift.  With their passing game, I expect him to find holes

[ralphpal1]

It's scary no one is mentioning Giants
But ok course
Barkley
Probably Waller
Any Wr ?
Robinson
Or
Hyatt
Especially in dynasty which I don't do
But I think people are mentioning
D Jones are a lower end QB that you can draft and maybe with his legs might not be bad
For those that don't remember
During some Eli years
You did have wrs that went high
Hopefully this year also
What do you think of the defense
Would you draft them

[DaveBrown74]

It's scary no one is mentioning Giants
But ok course
Barkley
Probably Waller
Any Wr ?
Robinson
Or
Hyatt
Especially in dynasty which I don't do
But I think people are mentioning
D Jones are a lower end QB that you can draft and maybe with his legs might not be bad
For those that don't remember
During some Eli years
You did have wrs that went high
Hopefully this year also
What do you think of the defense
Would you draft them

I am very careful in fantasy not to draft Giants just because I'm a fan. That's not to say I don't ever draft them, because I do, but I try to be objective about it.

I won't draft Barkley because I like getting receivers early, and if I take an early RB it will be Chubb.

I'm not drafting the Giants' D. Our pass rush is unproven and we have issues at ILB and the secondary.

[Jclayton92]

I am very careful in fantasy not to draft Giants just because I'm a fan. That's not to say I don't ever draft them, because I do, but I try to be objective about it.

I won't draft Barkley because I like getting receivers early, and if I take an early RB it will be Chubb.

I'm not drafting the Giants' D. Our pass rush is unproven and we have issues at ILB and the secondary.

I went back and watched the last 20 minutes of every game last season and there was some wild ones, Tennessee, Baltimore, Green Bay, Jacksonville etc but it's the one thing you can tell is blatantly bad specifically the ILB, Nickel coverage and OLB pass rush. Hopefully we take huge strides this season with a full year of Thibs, Ojulari, Lawrence, Williams, and co.

[Philosophers]

I am very careful in fantasy not to draft Giants just because I'm a fan. That's not to say I don't ever draft them, because I do, but I try to be objective about it.

I won't draft Barkley because I like getting receivers early, and if I take an early RB it will be Chubb.

I'm not drafting the Giants' D. Our pass rush is unproven and we have issues at ILB and the secondary.

Same with me though I draft both WRs and RBs.  A good RB consistently gets you 20 points nearly every week.