NGT - Let’s talk 2023 fantasy football

[DaveBrown74]

Same with me though I draft both WRs and RBs.  A good RB consistently gets you 20 points nearly every week. 

I used to try to be sure to get two RBs in the first three rounds, as I felt like RB thinned out quickly and by the third or fourth round you were left with only committee backs. I won my league one year with that strategy, but more often than not I was dealing with injured RBs and then having to decide a flex guy each week among middling, so-so receivers.

In recent years I have pivoted my strategy to focusing more on WRs early, and it has paid off for the most part. I just feel like in PPR, a team that is built around not just two top WRs but actually three (flex) is always going to be in the mix. I like to make sure my fourth WR is good too, as I don't like having some stiff in there on bye weeks or if someone gets banged up.

Obviously, if I do the above, it means I'm going to be thin at RB, but I feel like RBs can be juggled a bit and if you draft a couple handcuff types to oft-injured starters (like Mattison) you are often in a decent position later in the season.

What I have also done though is draft a RB in the first round, and then not worry about that position again until much later. If you have one top RB, it's much easier to field an aggregate "good" two starters than it is if you don't even have one.

Unless I'm picking in the top two or three this year, that may be what I do as I really like Chubb.

BTW, anyone who thinks Garrett Wilson is going to be available much past the mid second round or so (or the equivalent in auction formats) is going to be in for a surprise when they do their drafts. I actually did a couple of mock drafts the last couple of days just to see where guys are going, and Wilson was gone in the top 17 or so both times.

If I am picking late in the first round like 11th or 12th, I could see just starting with St Brown and Wilson and going from there. I think both will have electrifying seasons.

[Philosophers]

I used to try to be sure to get two RBs in the first three rounds, as I felt like RB thinned out quickly and by the third or fourth round you were left with only committee backs. I won my league one year with that strategy, but more often than not I was dealing with injured RBs and then having to decide a flex guy each week among middling, so-so receivers.

In recent years I have pivoted my strategy to focusing more on WRs early, and it has paid off for the most part. I just feel like in PPR, a team that is built around not just two top WRs but actually three (flex) is always going to be in the mix. I like to make sure my fourth WR is good too, as I don't like having some stiff in there on bye weeks or if someone gets banged up.

Obviously, if I do the above, it means I'm going to be thin at RB, but I feel like RBs can be juggled a bit and if you draft a couple handcuff types to oft-injured starters (like Mattison) you are often in a decent position later in the season.

What I have also done though is draft a RB in the first round, and then not worry about that position again until much later. If you have one top RB, it's much easier to field an aggregate "good" two starters than it is if you don't even have one.

Unless I'm picking in the top two or three this year, that may be what I do as I really like Chubb.

BTW, anyone who thinks Garrett Wilson is going to be available much past the mid second round or so (or the equivalent in auction formats) is going to be in for a surprise when they do their drafts. I actually did a couple of mock drafts the last couple of days just to see where guys are going, and Wilson was gone in the top 17 or so both times.

If I am picking late in the first round like 11th or 12th, I could see just starting with St Brown and Wilson and going from there. I think both will have electrifying seasons.

I hear you on all that.  Makes sense.  Frankly, it's like the NFL Draft.  You have to go where it flows.  If there's a run of WRs, then maybe you have to pick a RB or vice versa. 

[DaveBrown74]

I hear you on all that.  Makes sense.  Frankly, it's like the NFL Draft.  You have to go where it flows.  If there's a run of WRs, then maybe you have to pick a RB or vice versa. 

Excellent point Phil. I agree. The worst thing you can do is be so married to one strategy that you execute it no matter what and rob yourself of a clear opportunity that emerges based on the way the draft unfolds. You are 100% right about that. I always try to be prepared for my fantasy draft by being mindful of ADP and doing some mocks, but there are always surprises in my real draft. I fully agree that a sharp fantasy owner has to be nimble and take advantage of these opportunities as they unfold, and it's impossible to anticipate all of them before draft night.

At the end of the day, in the early rounds I'm trying to lock in points. You want guys with high floors AND high ceilings. In the middle rounds I draft for upside and make sure I sufficiently address needs. I do have my base strategy that I try to stick to if I can, but if there is a long run on a position before it gets to me and another position I wouldn't have normally taken there is now loaded with premium quality, you have to take advantage of that. If you don't you're putting yourself behind the 8 ball before week one. Simple as that. You're absolutely right.

[True Blue]

I don't typically draft QBs high. This years I will likely change that, I'll wait for 2 of Mahomes, Allen and Hurts to go, and target Burrow & Herbert, both playing for new deals, I expect big things yet again from them both. Not alot of great options thi syear.

RB I am all in on Chubb and Sanders. With Hunt gone, Chubb who is as consistently good as they come should have another great year. Sanders is in an ideal situation where there are few mouths to feed all around.

WR: Lots of value with Amon Ra, Olave, and others, and I am taking a flier on Ridley any chance I get.

[DaveBrown74]

I don't typically draft QBs high. This years I will likely change that, I'll wait for 2 of Mahomes, Allen and Hurts to go, and target Burrow & Herbert, both playing for new deals, I expect big things yet again from them both. Not alot of great options thi syear.

RB I am all in on Chubb and Sanders. With Hunt gone, Chubb who is as consistently good as they come should have another great year. Sanders is in an ideal situation where there are few mouths to feed all around.

WR: Lots of value with Amon Ra, Olave, and others, and I am taking a flier on Ridley any chance I get.

Good stuff. I mostly agree. The two QBs you mentioned are two that I am targeting as well. I could see a crazy season from Burrow.

I have mixed feelings about Ridley. I could see his story going either way, honestly. On the one hand Lawrence seems to be helping new receivers immensely (see Engram and Kirk), so that could be great for Ridley, but on the other hand I'm not sure what Ridley's deal is exactly. He obviously missed a year, but prior to his getting suspended, if you recall, he went on some sort of leave for "personal reasons." I don't think that leave had anything to do with gambling; the chatter was that it was some sort of mental health issue. I'm not saying I don't like picking him - I just think he's a wildcard, and I would be fairly round-sensitive with that pick. He's not a guy I want to reach for personally.

[True Blue]

Good stuff. I mostly agree. The two QBs you mentioned are two that I am targeting as well. I could see a crazy season from Burrow.

I have mixed feelings about Ridley. I could see his story going either way, honestly. On the one hand Lawrence seems to be helping new receivers immensely (see Engram and Kirk), so that could be great for Ridley, but on the other hand I'm not sure what Ridley's deal is exactly. He obviously missed a year, but prior to his getting suspended, if you recall, he went on some sort of leave for "personal reasons." I don't think that leave had anything to do with gambling; the chatter was that it was some sort of mental health issue. I'm not saying I don't like picking him - I just think he's a wildcard, and I would be fairly round-sensitive with that pick. He's not a guy I want to reach for personally.

He is absolutely a wild card. I'm kinda banking with his time away he drops to a point where he would be my WR3 or 4, where the risk is worth the shot. It may be a pipe dream for me, but I am hoping he is draftable in the same realm D Hop was a year ago with his suspension. I drafted him as a WR4 on both my leagues and before Murray went down I felt like a genius lol.

If he can be had in a round I like, if he flames out it shouldn't hurt me all that much.

[DaveBrown74]

He is absolutely a wild card. I'm kinda banking with his time away he drops to a point where he would be my WR3 or 4, where the risk is worth the shot. It may be a pipe dream for me, but I am hoping he is draftable in the same realm D Hop was a year ago with his suspension. I drafted him as a WR4 on both my leagues and before Murray went down I felt like a genius lol.

If he can be had in a round I like, if he flames out it shouldn't hurt me all that much.

I agree. I think for me he'd be a WR4, or not on my team, because I almost always start a WR in the flex in PPR, so I wouldn't want to feel dependent on him in case he's a bust. Right now on one mock site I look at (fantasy football calculator) his ADP in 12 team PPR is 8.11. (see below)

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr/12-team/wide-receiver

For me personally I think I'd have a hard time paying a great deal higher than that for him. I think that is probably about fair, although I definitely agree that he has a pretty good ceiling. He was sick in 2020, and I think Lawrence right now is better than what Matty Ice has been in the twilight of his career. So maybe you're onto something here.

[True Blue]

I agree. I think for me he'd be a WR4, or not on my team, because I almost always start a WR in the flex in PPR, so I wouldn't want to feel dependent on him in case he's a bust. Right now on one mock site I look at (fantasy football calculator) his ADP in 12 team PPR is 8.11. (see below)

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr/12-team/wide-receiver

For me personally I think I'd have a hard time paying a great deal higher than that for him. I think that is probably about fair, although I definitely agree that he has a pretty good ceiling. He was sick in 2020, and I think Lawrence right now is better than what Matty Ice has been in the twilight of his career. So maybe you're onto something here.

sounds aout right, I'd like him more in R9 myself

[DaveBrown74]

sounds aout right, I'd like him more in R9 myself

What are your thoughts on Toney in fantasy? I know we all hate him here, and rightfully so, but Mahomes just spoke very highly of him publicly (see below):

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/patrick-mahomes-kadarius-toney-can-be-one-of-the-best-receivers-in-this-league

I wouldn't say I'm targeting him aggressively, but he's on my list for sure. We can hate him all we want, but my league is full of sharks and I can't afford to make fantasy football a popularity contest. So he's for sure a guy I'm looking at who should be available in the mid rounds.

[True Blue]

sounds aout right, I'd like him more in R9 myself

My league runs 3 Starting WRs, so if I have a QB, 2RB, 3WR, my TE and a flex option (preferably a RB3 at this point), then that is when I start to consider Ridley, when I am not reliant on him in any way. Then I either strike gold, or nothing comes of it and I am fine

[DaveBrown74]

My league runs 3 Starting WRs, so if I have a QB, 2RB, 3WR, my TE and a flex option (preferably a RB3 at this point), then that is when I start to consider Ridley, when I am not reliant on him in any way. Then I either strike gold, or nothing comes of it and I am fine

Got it. My league is 2 WR, 2 RB, a TE, and a Flex. So unless there is some extreme situation with my lineup with byes and injuries, I am generally always putting a wideout in the flex.

[True Blue]

What are your thoughts on Toney in fantasy? I know we all hate him here, and rightfully so, but Mahomes just spoke very highly of him publicly (see below):

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/patrick-mahomes-kadarius-toney-can-be-one-of-the-best-receivers-in-this-league

I wouldn't say I'm targeting him aggressively, but he's on my list for sure. We can hate him all we want, but my league is full of sharks and I can't afford to make fantasy football a popularity contest. So he's for sure a guy I'm looking at who should be available in the mid rounds.

Idk, it depends how much of a factor Rashee Rice, their 2nd rd pick is I guess. I personally think he is too inconsistent in any circumstance and completely unreliable and undraftable until he gives anyone a reason to think otherwise. Too many red flags and hardly any consistent production. Not a player I like to target.

I am largely all about volume and consistency, he has neither of those things. I like taking swings and shooting for the moon, I just feel there are better options to go for in that regard personally.

I can be wrong, just too much there telling me to avoid though, so I'll be happy for the guy that takes a chance on him and succeeds

[DaveBrown74]

Idk, it depends how much of a factor Rashee Rice, their 2nd rd pick is I guess. I personally think he is too inconsistent in any circumstance and completely unreliable and undraftable until he gives anyone a reason to think otherwise. Too many red flags and hardly any consistent production. Not a player I like to target.

I am largely all about volume and consistency, he has neither of those things. I like taking swings and shooting for the moon, I just feel there are better options to go for in that regard personally.

I can be wrong, just too much there telling me to avoid though, so I'll be happy for the guy that takes a chance on him and succeeds

Fair enough, can't argue with any of that.

[Philosophers]

Fair enough, can't argue with any of that.

I think if I am going to take a gamble on a rookie WR, it is going to be Zay Flowers.  Rashad Bateman has been only average.  OBJ is on the old side.  Lamar Jackson will look for a new WR and I like Flowers aggressiveness.  Think he starts Day 1.

[DaveBrown74]

I think if I am going to take a gamble on a rookie WR, it is going to be Zay Flowers.  Rashad Bateman has been only average.  OBJ is on the old side.  Lamar Jackson will look for a new WR and I like Flowers aggressiveness.  Think he starts Day 1.

I like that call. He's on my watch list too.

As of right now Quentin Johnston is still my number one pick for rookie WRs, simply because I like the situation he is in and could see him developing a quick rapport with Herbert (who is in a contract year). Flowers is not far behind for me though, mainly for the reasons you said. Part of me was kind of hoping we'd get him. I think he'll be really good.