Daniel Jones' latest ranking by NFL coaches and executives

[DaveBrown74]

The Athletic has put out their rankings of starting QBs, which are taken from the aggregate of active NFL coaches and front office executives.

Jones has been ranked 19th this year, a solid improvement from last year's ranking of 30th.



Here is the explanation of the methodology by The Athletic:


The 2023 Quarterback Tiers results are here, complete with commentary from the 50 NFL coaches and executives who were granted anonymity to share unvarnished evaluations. This year, the 50 league insiders who placed 30 veteran quarterbacks into tiers included eight general managers, 10 head coaches, 15 coordinators, 10 executives, four quarterbacks coaches and three involved in coaching/analytics.

Voters put 30 veteran quarterbacks into five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks were then ranked by average vote and placed into tiers based on vote distribution, beginning with Mahomes, whose 1.00 average vote reflected his status as a unanimous Tier 1 selection. No QBs landed in Tier 5 this year, although some received Tier 5 votes. The survey excludes rookies because voters have not seen them play in the NFL.

The tiers are defined below. Generally speaking, the better equipped a quarterback is to win with less help around him, especially in situations when running the ball is not feasible, the better he will fare in Quarterback Tiers.


Jones was in the 3rd tier, ranked 19th.

Here is the write-up on Jones specifically:


Only Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence improved their Quarterback Tiers standing more than Jones from last year. A coaching change would seem to be the key variable.

"I love the way he took care of the ball," a head coach said. "That was the No. 1 thing he improved. I don't know if his arm will ever elevate those around him, but when you are a big man that has athleticism and takes care of the ball, you are going to give yourself a chance."

The Giants are banking on improved weaponry, notably the addition of tight end Darren Waller, to expand a conservative pass offense. The team ranked 30th in air yards per attempt last season. Jones' athleticism helped the Giants rank third in EPA on scrambles, worth about 2.4 points per game, according to TruMedia.

"He's a function of the offense," a defensive coordinator said. "I don't think from an arm standpoint he does a whole lot that is going to scare you, but his speed does. And I do think Brian Daboll protects his quarterbacks, even Josh Allen, by giving them very predictable throws, successful throws, easy throws to skill players who can go make a play. And then he takes his shots."

This coordinator thought Jones could become what Ryan Tannehill was at his peak in Tennessee, once the Giants' offensive talent fills in.

"He played really well last year, and I think with the added weapons, we are going to find out what he can do," an exec said of Jones. "I don't know if he can carry the team yet. That is what keeps him a 3 for now."



For those who have access, here is a link to the whole article:


https://theathletic.com/4723809/2023/07/31/nfl-quarterback-tiers-rankings-2023/?source=twitterhq

[True Blue]

I think putting him in the third tier, and the jump of as many slots as he has, are both fairly accurate.

He did better last year, did what he was asked, so I think it is appropriate. It isn't like he set the league on fire or anything. (hopefully yet rather than not)

Tier 1 is your Mahomes, Burrow, Allen and co, Tier 2 would be the next wave of franchise guys like Lawrence, Hurts, and co

Being is the tier after those types of guys seems about right to me, and obviously with his new cast and continutuity, and make another big leap up the rankings this year as well.

[DaveBrown74]

I think putting him in the third tier, and the jump of as many slots as he has, are both fairly accurate.

He did better last year, did what he was asked, so I think it is appropriate. It isn't like he set the league on fire or anything. (hopefully yet rather than not)

Tier 1 is your Mahomes, Burrow, Allen and co, Tier 2 would be the next wave of franchise guys like Lawrence, Hurts, and co

Being is the tier after those types of guys seems about right to me, and obviously with his new cast and continutuity, and make another big leap up the rankings this year as well.

Here is the way they defined the third tier:

Tier 3
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.


Tier 3 QBs were ranked as follows:

13. Kyler Murray
14. Derek Carr
15. Jared Goff
16. Russell Wilson
17. Tua Tagaviloa
18. Jimmy G
19. Jones
20. Geno Smith
21. Justin Fields
22. Ryan Tannehill
23. Mac Jones

[Dgoodmantrublu]

I view Jones as firmly top 15 right now. Russell Wilson isn't even in my top 20 after last season.

[MightyGiants]

Daniel Jones went from 30 in 2022 to 19 in 2023.   That sort of jump shows me a flawed measure.   Jones improved some, but so did other QBs.  That improvement was not as drastic as his grade improvement. This sort of jump indicates that the graders are being swayed by the support the QB receives rather than just grading a QB's ability.

[Jclayton92]

The real crime is Goff being behind Murray and Carr after the season he had.

As far a Jones most places have him anywhere from 12-19 so I'm not going to say the grade isn't right, NFL coaches and gms know more than me. I think Jones was excellent protecting the ball and running it this past season, and now he needs to add the 3rd element, confident downfield throws consistently. So if he adds that this season he should continue to move up.

[Rambo89]

Daniel Jones went from 30 in 2022 to 19 in 2023.   That sort of jump shows me a flawed measure.   Jones improved some, but so did other QBs.  That improvement was not as drastic as his grade improvement. This sort of jump indicates that the graders are being swayed by the support the QB receives rather than just grading a QB's ability.

Think it shows that 30 was probably too low for him last year.  I think 19 might be a little low for him this season (I'd probably go 15-17).  Bottom line there is a lot of room for improvement with Jones.

[Philosophers]

Make or break year to establish where I think he may settle out.  I am optimistic.

[DaveBrown74]

Think it shows that 30 was probably too low for him last year.  I think 19 might be a little low for him this season (I'd probably go 15-17).  Bottom line there is a lot of room for improvement with Jones.

I thought 30 was low last year (had him around 20/23) and I also agree 19 feels a bit low this year (I have him in the 15-17 type range).

I get tired of these rankings when it's just some yahoo in his parents' basement getting paid $100 for the article by Bleacher Report, but I do think it's very interesting to see how the various QBs are currently viewed by actively employed NFL head coaches, GMs, coordinaors, QB analytics guys, and other front office executives.

[madbadger]

Daniel Jones went from 30 in 2022 to 19 in 2023.   That sort of jump shows me a flawed measure.   Jones improved some, but so did other QBs.  That improvement was not as drastic as his grade improvement. This sort of jump indicates that the graders are being swayed by the support the QB receives rather than just grading a QB's ability.

For the first time in his career he has two years in a system, a great running back, skilled receivers and at least a functional offensive line at the same time. In all honesty this is the first time we can truly judge who he is.

[EDjohnst1981]

Here is the way they defined the third tier:

Tier 3
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.


Tier 3 QBs were ranked as follows:

13. Kyler Murray
14. Derek Carr
15. Jared Goff
16. Russell Wilson
17. Tua Tagaviloa
18. Jimmy G
19. Jones
20. Geno Smith
21. Justin Fields
22. Ryan Tannehill
23. Mac Jones

He's amongst that tier.

As I said at the signing, to much derision, it's a two year deal. He needs to better or he's cut.

They are giving him weapons. I asked last season for "no more excuses"

40 mil per year guarantees that.

Let's go Giants.

[MightyGiants]

Last year Sando's group of experts said the following were better QBs than Daniel Jones (who ranked 30th)

8. Russell Wilson
12. Derek Carr
13. Kyler Murray
14. Matt Ryan
17. Ryan Tannehill
18. Mac Jones
19. Baker Mayfield
T-20. Carson Wentz
24. Jameis Winston
27. Davis Mills
28. Zach Wilson
29. Trey Lance

That is an embarrassingly poor job of ranking QBs by people who should be much better at it.  Either Sando's group isn't very good, or his grading system is flawed, or even many in the NFL can't seem to separate QB performance from the QB support system.

[Jclayton92]

Last year Sando's group of experts said the following were better QBs than Daniel Jones (who ranked 30th)

8. Russell Wilson
12. Derek Carr
13. Kyler Murray
14. Matt Ryan
17. Ryan Tannehill
18. Mac Jones
19. Baker Mayfield
T-20. Carson Wentz
24. Jameis Winston
27. Davis Mills
28. Zach Wilson
29. Trey Lance

That is an embarrassingly poor job of ranking QBs by people who should be much better at it.  Either Sando's group isn't very good, or his grading system is flawed, or even many in the NFL can't seem to separate QB performance from the QB support system.

In all fairness everyone on that list had a better 2021 seasons than Jones besides Trey lance who didnt play and Zach wilson who wasnt far off Jones in 2021. So it's easy to see why coaches ranked those players ahead of Jones. At that point last year Jones was coming off 2,428 yards 10 tds, 7 Int, and an 84 rating, had just had his 5th year option declined and at that point had missed time in 3 straight years to injury, something like 20% of the Giants games. There wasn't much hope or optimism surrounding Jones or the Giants at that point.

[MightyGiants]

In all fairness everyone on that list had a better 2021 seasons than Jones besides Trey lance who didnt play and Zach wilson who wasnt far off Jones in 2021. So it's easy to see why coaches ranked those players ahead of Jones. At that point last year Jones was coming off 2,428 yards 10 tds, 7 Int, and an 84 rating, had just had his 5th year option declined and at that point had missed time in 3 straight years to injury, something like 20% of the Giants games. There wasn't much hope or optimism surrounding Jones or the Giants at that point.

That sort of points to the issue.  The people being polled seem to focus on production with no consideration of the supporting staff a QB receives.   In that sort of poll, they should be ranking QB production by team rather than putting names to the position.

[DaveBrown74]

That sort of points to the issue.  The people being polled seem to focus on production with no consideration of the supporting staff a QB receives. 

I can't agree with this statement. Consider:


(1) Rodgers had very little help in his offense last year (rookie receivers, no particularly good tight ends, all pro left tackle out for a chunk of games, lost his OC to a head coaching opportunity), and he wasn't terribly productive. And yet they have him fourth.

(2) Geno Smith was highly productive last year and has good talent around him. He threw for 4,282 yards and 30 TD passes, and he was fifth in QB rating. If Jones put up those numbers this year everyone here would be doing cartwheels. And yet Geno is ranked behind Jones in this (20th).

(3) Jared Goff was 6th in passing yards, 6th in passing TDs, and top 10 in QB rating, and they only have him 15th here.


Those aren't the only examples either. I don't think the participants' methodology was as simplistic as you are saying.