The OLine will certainly improve QB play, but how and how much exactly?

[babywhales]

What specific impact are you expecting to see a new line associated with DJ the QB?

I will start by listing the skills an elite QB has and relate those to DJ.  I will conclude with which of the ones he does not have have imo and what impact a better O line will have.

The skills and attributes associated with a top level QB are listed below:

1. Superior arm strength and accuracy

2. Anticipation - pocket presence

3. Anticipation - 6th sense connection with receivers, ability to place ball where only the receiver can get it

4. Learns offense and runs it with poise

5.  Studies, is a tiredless student of the game

6. stays calm in the midst of pressure and makes sound wise decisions

7. Quickly scans the whole field finding open receiver

8. Runs 2 minute offense

9. Leadership on the field, making others better

10. Appreciates and supports team and staff

11. Ability to lead team back to victory in 4th quarter

12. Rises to all occasions in all games, more so in big games

13. Wins championships or at least competes in them

14. Confidence

15. Accountability

16. Intelligence

17. Footwork

18. Decision making

19. Physically tuff

I am sure I missed some and or overlapped in the listing process.

Jones has some of these no doubt, I would say he has:
1. Intelligence
2. Accountability
3. ability to lead team back in 4th
4. Studies, is a student of the game
5. Arm strength to an extent.
6. leadership
7. Physically Tuff

I would say he is lacking in:
1. Accuracy
2. Pocket Presence and 6th sense
3. Running offense with poise
4. Stays calm and makes sound decisions
5. Quickly assess full field
6. Rises to all occasions and does not step up in big games
7. Confidence

My problem is a better O line will not fix many of his bigger issues.

1- Accuracy - Accuracy is considered one of the skills most likely to not improve through a career, you have it or you do not. It can be improved a little based on what you are asked to do but history says it is what it is.

2- pocket presence, Jones has below average pocket presence. hearing ghosts and running when no need exist and not running when he should.

3- Stays calm and makes sound decisions - He gets flustered under pressure and continues to fail to identify critical presnap reads (empty coverage and uncovered pass rushers, overhang pass rushers, hot reads, etc).

4- Runs offense with poise - IMO he does not, he is running a very basic offense with very easy reads and checkdowns. This has occurred through multiple coaches too, he runs an offense with training wheels built into it to cover up the line mostly.  That is a scary fact about what different coaching staffs think he is capable of handling.

5-Quickly assesses field- IMO he does not.  He does not do this well presnap or post snap often missing the open receiver.

6- Aside from the Vikings playoff game he typically does not rise up in all games.  To be fair to Jones at times he has been damn near perfect but too few for a 5th year player.

7- Confidence - IMO the way he reverts back to his bad habits when under pressure shows a lack of confidence and poise.


So my question is what skills do you feel Jones is currently not posing or excelling with that will be improved with better line play?  Or will better line play simply allow a better running game and the team will be better, thus buffering against Jones's shortcomings.

I will go first:

I can see the accuracy slightly improving associated with being able to make better reads and setting his body for the throws (not being on the run). But nothing major. He is missing throws now with no pressure.

I do not see his pocket presence increasing for him.  He simply is too smart for his own good and has anxiety and fears failure.

The biggest issue for me right now is the poor mental side to DJ's game.  A better line will ultimately reduce the times he is asked to deal with pressure situations that wear on a QB's mental state and that is a big deal no doubt but only against average competition.  Top defenses are going to bring it and he will need the mental skills to play the chess match.  The skills he has failed to display to date, as we saw last year vs Philli.
Confidence can certainly be increased with more and more successful repetitions.  I see the Oline helping with this, but will it last in games that matter most?

Ultimately, getting to the question, will a better line simply make the team better with DJ being a more functional QB (2022-2023)?
Or will a better line allow DJ to develop into an elite QB?

In short I see Jones's being a better QB behind an average to above average line and ultimately the Giants offense being better and leading to more wins against the lower 2/3rds - 3/4's of the league's teams. But I do not see him excelling with the traits that will help him win against the best defenses in the toughest of games. I simply do not see an improved O line allowing for Jones to start excelling at the critical traits carried in an elite QB.

Correct or not, and I am not implying I am correct, but that is how I am looking at Jones as the QB of the Giants when I give me 2 cents on Jones.

And so we are all clear I think the Oline is embarrassingly horrible, nothing short of a complete disgrace.

I just see both issues existing simultaneously, at this point a correlation and not causation.

[JT39]

Well thought out post. Lot to digest there.

I will say this... QBs are at their best when the following happens.

1. They are comfortable.
2. They get into a rhythm.
3. They have confidence.
4. They trust those surrounding them.

Does this mean Jones has the tools to take us far? Maybe, but probably not. But when those things waver or are lost - it's a lost cause no matter if it's Mike Glennon or Tom Brady.

[MightyGiants]

Chris,

I appreciate all the work you put into this post.  I believe QB play depends on three things: coaching/scheme, protection, and receiving weapons.  If you look at just the pass protection, it's akin to checking your tire pressure for a long trip but not checking that you have fuel.

Now I will use PFF (because they readily have the metrics I seek) for two of the factors and give my opinion on the third.


2019 (Jones' rookie season)-  Pass-blocking 19th, receiving 17th, Pat Shurmur and Shula

It would be fair to say that DJ's rookie season he had at least NFL caliber when it came to protection and weapons and at least that in terms of coaching and scheme (Shurmur wasn't a great HC, but he was an adequate OC).  Jones's rookie performance wasn't bad with the exception of too many turnovers

2020- pass-blocking 32nd, receiving 25th, Judge and Garrett

Jones simply didn't have a single NFL support pillar in his 2nd year in the league and his performance reflected that

2021-  pass blocking 30th, receiving 31st, Judge and Garrett (Garrett fired mid-season and Jones hurt after that)

Another year with Jones struggling to perform without a single support pillar

2022-  Pass-Blocking 24th, receiving 27th, Daboll and Kafka

Jones performed like an average NFL starter this year.  He has solid coaching/scheme, borderline NFL protection, but weak receiving weapons.

2023- pass-blocking 32nd, receiving 31st, Daboll and Kafka

Jones is playing like one would expect a QB to play given the support.  The one solid support pillar now seems to be questionable as opposing teams seem to have figured them out and Daboll and Kafka seem at a loss to figure out a counter.


Now to the question, as I would phrase it-  How would Daniel Jones perform if given just NFL caliber in all three pillars of QB support?

I think, based on last season, Jones could be in the 5 - 10 area of QB rankings (with the proviso that I am not big on QB comparisons, as a general rule).  That's the best-case scenario.  It's also quite possible that this season will serve to "break Daniel Jones" ala David Carr, where Jones' internal clock will be permanently damaged, and Jones will always be dropping his eyes and looking at the rush instead of looking downfield.

Now, it's also possible that last year, Daboll and Kafka figured out a scheme that allowed Jones to thrive, but they don't have another scheme to counter what defenses are doing due to Jones' limitations as a QB.  This is a possibility, but I would like to think if Daboll and Schoen believed there was only one scheme Jones could thrive in, they wouldn't have signed him to the contract they did. 

I guess in the end, I prefer to see it myself (see Jones operate in an NFL-caliber environment) than speculate based on limited data (due to the lack of support).

[babywhales]

Rich
I agree with your sentiments.
I thought about entering into the discussion about the reality of Jones environment permanently altering his developmental ceiling and to what extent. It's a real concern. A beat dog never forgets what a raised hand has done in the past

No matter what the line must be fixed for Jones or for whomever is next.  

JT - I agree and the Giants are light years from providing that. 

[T200]

Now, it's also possible that last year, Daboll and Kafka figured out a scheme that allowed Jones to thrive, but they don't have another scheme to counter what defenses are doing due to Jones' limitations as a QB.  This is a possibility, but I would like to think if Daboll and Schoen believed there was only one scheme Jones could thrive in, they wouldn't have signed him to the contract they did. 

Interesting point.

To add to that, it's also possible that Dab/Ka didn't expect teams to have a plan to counter what the Giants wanted to do offensively and have it be as effective as it has been so far.

[MightyGiants]

I will add one more comment which takes this topic to what I consider its logical conclusion.  If the Giants are so terrible should they draft a QB in the next draft? 

To this question, I would say yes.  The harsh reality is that it's easier to build a team with a QB on a rookie salary.  While next year will not have that benefit, they will see that benefit for the next two or three seasons after that.  This QB draft class is supposedly very strong so it seems like a prime time to grab a QB if one is available. 

On top of the advantage of having a QB on the rookie salary, there would still be a mystery in terms of DJ's ceiling and if he can recover from the challenging situation he was put in.

[MightyGiants]

Interesting point.

To add to that, it's also possible that Dab/Ka didn't expect teams to have a plan to counter what the Giants wanted to do offensively and have it be as effective as it has been so far.

While the point in bold is possible, I would be a bit surprised.   It seemed to me (and I have heard from others with the same view) that the Eagles created the blueprint on how to defend/stop the Giants' offense.  The NFL is a copycat league. If the Eagles figured out how to defend you, it would be unwise to believe others wouldn't follow their formula.

[Rambo89]

In short I see Jones's being a better QB behind an average to above average line and ultimately the Giants offense being better and leading to more wins against the lower 2/3rds - 3/4's of the league's teams. But I do not see him excelling with the traits that will help him win against the best defenses in the toughest of games. I simply do not see an improved O line allowing for Jones to start excelling at the critical traits carried in an elite QB.

This is what it comes down to for me and why IMO if things don't do a 180 the Giants should be (if John Mara allows Schoen) drafting a QB next spring.  We are in year 5 and almost 60 starts into his career.  There is no mystery with him we've seen his ability and his limitations.  This isn't like Geno Smith or Rich Gannon who had half the number of starts Jones has had before they went elsewhere and put up good to great season's.  This is Alex Smith who has shown in the right environment that he was able to be a solid NFL QB.  But like Andy Reid found out in Kansas City that is only going to take a team so far especially when they are taking up a significant chunk of cap space.

Interesting point.

To add to that, it's also possible that Dab/Ka didn't expect teams to have a plan to counter what the Giants wanted to do offensively and have it be as effective as it has been so far.

Think they also expected Jones to take a step forward this season figuring they could put more on his plate and have found out that they can't.

[T200]

Great post, Chris.

I will choose three from your list:

6. stays calm in the midst of pressure and makes sound wise decisions
Once he learns to trust that his protection for 85-90% of his dropbacks, I can see him being more poised and comfortable in the pocket.

8. Runs 2 minute offense
Similar to #6, he will be able to make decisions based on the coverage and not focus so much on the rush.

14. Confidence
I feel like he's second-guessing himself. He has very little confidence in anything going right once the ball is snapped. With improved o-line play, his eyes will be open more to what's available for him in the passing game.

[Ed Vette]

He needs a better QB Coach. McAdoo would do him a world of good because he developed a lot of bad habits. He has wasted motion and steps and he rolls out but can't throw without setting up so those plays unless the Flat is wide open are a waste.

His reads need to start with the deep routes on most plays because once he sees an open under he doesn't look downfield. That window closes and the downfield is dead.

[LennG]

What I took away from Chris's great post is that Jones has been the same QB no matter who is the HC and who is the OC.

What I mean by this-- we all say Jones is a very intelligent man, who should be able to read defenses and know who the 'hot' receiver is, yet he rarely does this.

One of the knocks against Jones is that he has been in many different systems thru his 5 years. Yes, we all know this, but look at what he is asked to do in all those systems, throw short, mid-range passes and run. In each of the different offenses, he is still asked to do basically the same exact thing.

Meaning, maybe all these HCs and OCs know that that is what Jones can do best and ask anything more of him and he gets into trouble.
Is this all he is capable of doing? Why can't he read defenses like most QBs do and find the 'hot' guy? We ask if Jones audibles at the LOS--we don't know, but it seems he doesn't. He runs what they tell him to run so is he on a very short leash, meaning the HC knows what he does best and doesn't ask any more of him. He basically runs the exact same offense thru 3OC now.

[Philosophers]

QB play will improve under DJ but I dont think it will improve enough.  We need a new QB as I think he is shell shocked and indecisive but we need a better OL before we subject a rookie QB to that horror.

[True Blue]

It would improve but not enough, he just doesn't have what it takes to elevate anyone around him, support or not you have to be an elevator to some extent

[Rambo89]

Rather than start a new thread just thought I would share Boomer Esiason's take https://twitter.com/wfan660/status/1711807557528850568?s=61

[DaveBrown74]

Rather than start a new thread just thought I would share Boomer Esiason's take

Interesting commentary from a very credible source. Boomer not only played QB in the NFL for a significant number of years, but he was pretty successful at it. He understands the position in a highly nuanced way and can speak from firsthand experience. I'm always interested to get his take.