NGT - Is Justin Herbert good?

[PSUBeirut]

Saw a stat today that said Herbert has more losses since he entered the league than any other active QB.  Have also noticed that he's been injured a bit as well.  I've not followed the Chargers much so I don't know about their OL other than I know they got a good one in Slater a few years back.  I do know they have some elite weapons in Ekeler and Keenan Allen.

Anyway, for the past few years I've felt he's been overrated- that I hadn't really seen a ton from him even though he's obviously got the arm strength to spare.  He certainly doesn't seem to be winning like he was expected to.  I know quite a few folks on this board really like him and wished we had waited a year to draft our QB in order to get him so I thought it would be interesting to check in with folks and see what they thought of the guy.  I watched a bit of the LA-KC game this past weekend and honestly Herbert left a lot of plays on the field, IMO.

So- thoughts?

[kingm56]

In what's considered an off year for him, he's on pace for 4500 yards, 29 TDs, and 11 int.  Yeah, he's good...

[MightyGiants]

Herbert is an interesting case study.  By QB stats, they have an elite QB on a cheap rookie contract.

On the other hand, their record doesn't reflect that natural advantage.



Not sure what to make of it.

[DaveBrown74]

To me Herbert is an immense talent -- hard to find any QB with more raw physical talent than he has -- but he has not fully put it all together yet. And I can't blame it on a lack of talent around him on offense. His play late in games has been concerning.

With the above said, the Chargers' D has been awful pretty much since he came into the league, so to me that is a huge part of the issue, if not the biggest part. He has definitely been on the losing end of close games more than you'd like to see if you're the one cutting the $50mm check each year, but a lot of these losses are 37-34 type losses.

Short answer though is I think he is an elite talent who is near the top of the league in terms of value.

[B1GBLUE]

Send jones, barkley, and a 1st for herbert straight up. would you do it?

[DaveBrown74]

Send jones, barkley, and a 1st for herbert straight up. would you do it?

It would take much, much more than that to get Herbert in a trade. Multiple first rounders as a starting point.

Jones has zero trade value at this point. Nobody in the league would want that contract on their books. Any package is worth more without him than with him.

[Uni]

Send jones, barkley, and a 1st for herbert straight up. would you do it?

Man, that's like saying trade $5 for $1000. Of course. In a heartbeat.

The Chargers have a dumb HC and a terrible D, which is weird because it used to stocked with studs. All they have left are James and Bosa, both of whom dropped off big time.

And now they can't run the ball or block a pass rush. At all. He's sort of in the same situation as Allen in Buffalo. They're both producing, but the team around them is failing.

[sooners56]

Herbert is very good. The Chargers as a team no so much. Their D is bad.

[Philosophers]

Brandon Staley and predecessor HCs for the Chargers are always on the Hot Seat.  Herbert is good but the team constantly underachieves.  Remember it's a team game.

How many OCs has Herbert had since he entered the NFL?  I think 3.

[PSUBeirut]

Herbert is an interesting case study.  By QB stats, they have an elite QB on a cheap rookie contract.

On the other hand, their record doesn't reflect that natural advantage.



Not sure what to make of it.

hmmm it definitely seems like the defense has been terrible, in terms of PPG against- just some quick math with your stats above it's around 25-27 PPG scored on the Chargers each year.  I do wonder with the talent the guy has and the talent that's around him why he hasn't been able to win more games....just did a quick search and it looks like he's 27-28 as a starter.  I've got a good buddy who's a Chargers fan, I might check in with him and see what insight he might have.  Something definitely seems off.

[MightyGiants]

hmmm it definitely seems like the defense has been terrible, in terms of PPG against- just some quick math with your stats above it's around 25-27 PPG scored on the Chargers each year.  I do wonder with the talent the guy has and the talent that's around him why he hasn't been able to win more games....just did a quick search and it looks like he's 27-28 as a starter.  I've got a good buddy who's a Chargers fan, I might check in with him and see what insight he might have.  Something definitely seems off.

Statistically the defense was in the middle third all 4 seasons

[Bob In PA]

hmmm it definitely seems like the defense has been terrible, in terms of PPG against- just some quick math with your stats above it's around 25-27 PPG scored on the Chargers each year.  I do wonder with the talent the guy has and the talent that's around him why he hasn't been able to win more games....just did a quick search and it looks like he's 27-28 as a starter.  I've got a good buddy who's a Chargers fan, I might check in with him and see what insight he might have.  Something definitely seems off.

PSU: Of note is the fact that they play KC twice each year, which probably skews the stats a bit. Bob

[TDToomer]

Send jones, barkley, and a 1st for herbert straight up. would you do it?

Herbert is an interesting case study.  By QB stats, they have an elite QB on a cheap rookie contract.

He's not cheap. He just signed a massive extension of $262.5 million through 2029 so he is untradable by the Chargers for all cap purposes. $133.7 million guaranteed would accelerate onto the Chargers cap!

[y_so_blu]

He's good enough that it really hurts your team when he screws up. And boy do the Chargers do a lot of that.

[DaveBrown74]

Statistically the defense was in the middle third all 4 seasons

What stat are you looking at? In 2021 they were third worst in the league in points allowed per game.