Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Ed Vette on May 04, 2024, 07:36:07 PMNo Receivers.

Interesting observation, Ed.  As a byproduct of 'recent' rule changes, I have to believe this will change in the near future.  If Justin J can remain healthy, I suspect he'll have the best chance.  It's also possible that if Jerry Rice wasn't a victim of the '87 player strike, he would have been the MVP.  His 23 TDs in 10 games garnered him 30 votes; Elway nudged him out with 36 votes.  I could be wrong, but I believe that was the closest any WR came to MVP honors.

Quote from: sxdxca38 on Today at 12:49:13 AMIf you want to say that Brady playing behind a top five offensive line, for the majority of his career had absolutely no impact on his performance, well then be my guest.

And then after doing so provide only one year, that is right, just one year (2011) of Eli Mannings fifteen-year career (2004-2018) to make your point, and then build an entire world view around it.

So let us begin to expose the faulty line of reasoning.

In 2011, the only year that you shared, what you failed to bring out, was that he had three elite WR's to help him out, in Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham.

"If you want to say that Brady playing behind a top five offensive line, for the majority of his career had absolutely no impact on his performance, well then be my guest."

REBUTTAL:  Where did I, or anyone, state Brady and Manning did not benefit from playing behind top tier OLs?  You're reframing your own premise for reasons only you know.  What I stated, and objectively proved is both QBs were ALSO successful playing behind poor-to-terrible OLs. Thus, they did NOT always benefit from "elite level line play to give them time to dissect a defense."  Yes, Eli and Brady played behind some very good OLs, and benefited as all QBs do; however, that doesn't invalidate thier numerous successes playing behind bottom 10 OLs; in fact, both had AP/MVP-type seasons playing with the NFLs' literal worst Olines.. 

"And then after doing so provide only one year, that is right, just one year (2011) of Eli Mannings fifteen-year career (2004-2018) to make your point, and then build an entire world view around it."

REBUTTAL:  As I accurately predicted, and stated, your mind is already made up and no amount of objective data will sway you. So, why waste time providing a cogent, time-consuming response? I also reject the notion I only provided one years worth of data; in response to Rich, I provided 9 years worth of data to support my supposition, in addition to providing 3 years worth of Patriot data.  However, since you brought it up, I will do so again, this time with aggregate PFF OL rankings."

"So let us begin to expose the faulty line of reasoning."

REBUTTAL:   You remind me of Blue Fire; any opposing views and/or rebuttals were classified as "faulty." Do you automatically assume anyone who disagrees with you is wrong and/or employs fault logic? I knew from past research that your statement was factually inaccurate and did my best provide a response predicated on facts.

"In 2011, the only year that you shared, what you failed to bring out, was that he had three elite WR's to help him out, in Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham."

REBUTTAL:   This is factually incorrect; in response to Tonka, I explicitly stated "Cruz was as integral to the Giants' 2011 success as JPP."  Besides, you're moving the goal post, presumably because you were unaware of the Giants' 2011 OL ranking. You explicitly stated "Go and look up the offensive line rankings Tom Brady and Eli Manning both played with in the prime of their career" and "It is no coincidence that both had elite level line play to give them time to dissect a defensee.""  BTW, I suspect the majority of fans would avoid classifying Manningham (good) or Nicks(stints as very good) as 'elite', especially the former.  How did both do without Manning?  You're also torpedoing your own assertion: "What is more important to the QB than the WR is the offensive line."; to explain the 2011 season, you're suggesting it was byproduct of WRs talent.  What about Mannings other 3 Pro Bowl seasons when you played with bottom 10 Olines?  In fact, his two best seasons were 2011 and 2015, when he was paired with bottom 3 pass-protection.  As you highlighted, he did enjoy a solid WR trio in 2011 and superstar WR in 2015 (OBJ).  So, based on your input, it appears the reverse is true (i.e. wrs are more important than the OL).  At a minimum, we should discuss this assertion as it appears it has some merit.  I digress though as WR(s) weren't our focus; you introduced them after learning about the Giants' 2011 OL rankings

BL: Your premise that Manning and Brady's successes were predicated on "elite OLs" during "thier prime" is objectively false. 

Eli's aggregate Oline Rankings:

2008    11  (Unk) * Made the Pro Bowl
2009    6  (12 Pass Blocking)
2010    13 (17 Pass Blocking)
2011    31 (31 Pass Blocking) * Made the Pro Bowl/MVP and AP votes
2012   11 (21 Pass Blocking) *Made the Pro Bowl
2013    28 (31 Pass Blocking)
2014    20 (28 Pass Blocking)
2015    20 (28 Pass Blocking) *Made the Pro Bowl
2016   20 (24 Pass Blocking)

2008*   27   16   289   479   60.3   3238   21   10   86.4   66.9   PB
2009    28    16   317   509   62.3   4021   27   14   93.1   71.7   
2010    29    16   339   539   62.9   4002   31   25   85.3   57.7   
2011*   30   16   359   589   61   4933   29   16   92.9   64.2   AP CPoY-6, PB
2012*   31   16   321   536   59.9   3948   26   15   87.2   67   PB
2013    32    16   317   551   57.5   3818   18   27   69.4   38.6   
2014    33    16   379   601   63.1   4410   30   14   92.1   61   
2015*   34   16   387   618   62.6   4432   35   14   93.6   57.9   PB
2016    35   16   377   598   63.0   4027   26   16 86.0   45.7
   
Note – I did not include 2017 through 2019 as the OP explicitly stated "in the prime of their careers."  On average, QBs not named Brady start to regress around their mid-30s; this was true for all of Manning's 2004 draft contemporaries (e.g. Big Ben and Rivers).

Key Takeaways:
1. With the exception of 2013, Eli's output remained consistent
2. Eli's statistical best two seasons (2011 and 2015) occurred when paired with bottom 3 Pass Blocking lines; he did have Cruz, Nix and OBJ
3. Eli's best season was 2011, playing behind the NFL's worst OL
4. Eli's worst season was 2013, playing behind the NFL's 28th OL
5. Eli's 4 PB seasons occurred playing behind the 11, 31, 11 and 20 rated lines.
6. 3 of 4 of his PB seasons were accomplished playing with bottom 10 pass blocking line; 2 of 4 were bottom 3 (31, 21, and  28)
7. During his Prime, Eli's aggregate OL ranking was #18
8. During his Prime, Eli's average pass protection ranking was #24
9. On average, Eli did NOT benefit from "elite level line play to give them time to dissect a defense"; in his prime, the exact opposite was true....he had a bottom 7 pass blocking oline
10 The same is true for Tom Brady; in his prime, he remained consistent, independent of his OL rankings.  His 2015 MVP season was accomplished behind the NFL's worst pass-blocking line.

The data is remarkably clear; Brady and Manning outputs were NOT wholly predicated on thier OL performances.  Both literally prove the opposite of the premise introduced; each remained consistent during MULTIPLE seasons with poor Olines in thier prime. In short, it's possible for QBs to be HIGHLY successful (e.g. MVPs/APs) playing behind terrible olines.   Looking at the data, can we at least agree on that point?  Can we agree Eli and Brady enjoyed MULTPLE Pro Bowl/SB seasons playing behind bottom 10 olines? If true, can we also agree that it's possible for Top-Tier QBs to be successful without elite, or even good OLs?   I will agree with the notion that 36 through 38 year old Manning needed a plus offensive line to be successful, as the data supports that conclusion; however, Prime Eli did not.

IMO, it's a disservice to Eli's greatness to perpetuate a false-narrative that his success was predicted on an elite (or even good) Oline; the fact is, for the majority of his prime, his Oline stunk.  From a more macro perspective, it's unnecessary to perpetuate these false claims to support the notion that QB failures are a byproduct of poor oline play.  Prime Eli quite literally proves the opposite. 

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on May 04, 2024, 11:52:32 AMThe ironic thing is there was quite a ground-swell brewing amongst the fanbase to nix both Simms and Eli because both of them took longer than expected to really flourish within the Giants offense. Part was maturation, part was getting talent around them. DJ is in a similar boat. I really don't see Dave Brown here. He is not beyond hope in my humblest of opinions, gentleman.

The Simms and Eli example are now 25 and 40 years old; plus, Eli didn't take 6 years to mature. He was a SB MVP by year 3...it's an overused and poor example. 

Today, the game is fundamentally different and QB maturation reflects that reality.  Kids have access to professional camps from age 8 on, colleges are no longer running wishbones and student body left/right; today college offenses are as sophisticated as the NFL. College nutrition and strength program are also on par with NFL clubs. It no longer takes 3+ years for NFL QBs to emerge. Just look at every QB to enter the NFL in the past decade; you'll notice an obvious and fundamental trend. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 04, 2024, 10:44:51 AMI think you are overstating things when you claim that Kafka "led the league's best passing game."   Kafka wasn't the OC; he was the quarterback's coach & passing game coordinator.  To make matters worse, Andy Reid, rather than the OC, calls the plays for the Chiefs.

Again, you're obfuscating.  Can you please answer the question. Putting everything aside, why did both the OC and HC have immense success in KC and Buff, but considered a hindrance to DJ now? Why weren't they hinderances in 2022? 

Isn't it more likely DJ is a hindrance to the HC, than the latter is to the former?

Do I think the Giants have a good offense? Heck No!  In the modern NFL you need a plus QB to compete with the offensive juggernauts.

Do I think we're #31?  I don't know as I'd have to analyze the other teams.  I do think we're #4 in our own conference though. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 04, 2024, 10:35:56 AMIf you believe Kafka didn't have issues, how do you explain Daboll seeking to take away (and he did take away multiple times last season) play-calling duties?

You answered a question with a question. Again, can anyone explain why Kafka was a hot OC, led the leagues best passing game in KC, was considered a Genius here in 2022, but is now a reason for DJs failures?  I'd also like to hear more about how a hot OC in Buff and NFL CoY is also part of DJs problem.

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on May 04, 2024, 10:24:23 AMThe most unbelievable part in this equation hasn't been DJ's production as much as it has been an organization's abject failure to provide him with anywhere near a functional supports system.

I think some are looking for something to blame and have trouble seeing that the support system when you try and best apply metrics to it and it's overall ineptitude that it would rank among the league worst if not the league worst over the last five years when you account for both the coaching side and the talent side of the main things needed for a successful passing game.

This requires further explanation. Are you claiming the HC and OC are part of the problem?  If so, can you explain their successes in KC and Buff?  I also believe the Giants have some talent that's being hindered by the QB. Is it a coincidence that Robinson started to emerge with the backup QB?  Can we also agree that DJ enjoyed playing with a top 3 LT and RB? 

His support system was indeed below average; however, you lost me on the coaching aspect.  I also think it's a bit of stretch to say his Kitchen was completely bare.

Quote from: Uncle Mickey on May 04, 2024, 10:14:12 AMDJ was 29-34 that preseason. And some of those balls he threw were absolute dots. It also translated to the season as well. His issue as a rookie was ball security and understanding how to run without getting annihilated by NFL defenders.

He has since cleaned that part up. Now if we get him a better coached OL (possibly checked off now) and an actual half decent WR group (possibly ALSO checked off now) with a viable offensive system (that too may be checked off under Daboll/Kafka)

I think we all whatever we think of DJ all (mostly) agree that DJ has had a very subpar support system of those 3 items for his career.

I don't think it's an impossibility that he looks more like the player we have seen have some very high level games now that those things could finally be in place.

Some may disagree that is a reasonable view. Fine. Well either way there is a good chance it's going to happen this year health withstanding, him being the starting QB that is. So why not just hope for the positive outcome. Otherwise why even bother watching this season?

Brother, the pre season is rarely in indicator on future success; id caution you from trying to glean anything from those pointless exhibitions.

Regardless, I appreciate the conversation and how you carry yourself.  Again, I look forward to future discussions.

Btw, I hope the Giants aren't relying on hope, as hope is not a viable course of action 😝

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 04, 2024, 09:20:35 AMMatt,

I am confused.  The expectation for the Eagles (and this seemed to be a strong consensus) was that they would be returning to the Super Bowl.  How does putting up 11 wins (and making the playoffs) while suffering an embarrassing end-of-season loss to the Giants and immediately getting booted from the playoffs in a butt-kicking by the Bucs suggest the Eagles met expectations?

Expectations by whom?

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 04, 2024, 09:15:46 AMThis comment sort of reflects the issue with discussing Jones.  Uncle Mickey had "showed flashes of brilliance" as a part of an argument.  The Jones critics focused on that part of the argument and first claimed Jones never showed brilliance.  Then, when you show historic accomplishments that any reasonable person would say was a flash of brilliance, the goalposts were moved, and it was claimed failed QBs had shown flashes of brilliance (not sure what that even means in context to UM's original point).  Finally, we have an entire point Uncle Mickey made thrown out, and it's declared the point that Jones has shown flashes of brilliance is now the entire argument, and clearly, that argument is a "bad one."

How can there be quality conversation in conditions like that?

The better question: How can you have a quality conversation when the opposing viewpoint reframes aggregate responses to benefit thier position?  Pray Tell, show me where the "Jones Critics" dismissed his 'brilliance.' Indeed, DJ's had some wonderful games/movements.  Nobody dismises that point; some, put them into context, like @Jess who noted most occurred during his rookie campaign.   However, that's not the majority point.  The point was, and still is, a lot of professional QBs have moments of brilliance, especially QBs with 60 starts.  However, you chose to completely ignore that point, presumably because you don't have a good response; thus, you simply reframed the oppositions' position to give yourself the moral and intellectual high-ground.         

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 04, 2024, 08:54:51 AM@DaveBrown74 and @kingm56

Remember last year when everyone ignored the Eagles' losing both their OC and DC and predicted a repeated trip to the Super Bowl? The Cowboys lost their very talented DC this past offseason (along with a number of veteran starters). Those sorts of losses tend to go under the radar but are often the most impactful.

Yet, they still won 11 games and made the playoffs.   This place went crazy when we won 9 games; so, I don't see 11 wins as a failure, despite how they finished.

If OC/DC were the primary issue, they would have struggled out the gate as players were learning the new systems; however, the reverse happened.  Even good teams go through spells; it happens all the time.  Regardless, I suspect they'll win double-digit games again this season, but will wait until Aug to make any real predictions. 

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on May 04, 2024, 07:54:58 AMI won't disagree that Dallas might take a step back this year. I still think their floor is pretty high though. A step back for them might mean just 10 wins instead of their typical 12 or 13. Is our absolute best case scenario ceiling higher than that? Never say never I guess, but I highly doubt it. We did add some nice players, but we also lost some, and we have deeper holes in our roster than they do.

Let's not forget Dal also has an AP returning to thier secondary this season; they still have AP/PB level talent on both sides of the ball. 

Quote from: B1GBLUE on May 03, 2024, 03:24:55 PMfor sure...but he also had a good to great oline most of his career, and the perfect system for him to work in. think about how many guys they were able to swap out like edelman and welker over the years basically seamlessly. the system you are in can be just as important as the people executing it. save for the randy moss years, tom was never exactly airing it out. he was hitting guys underneath that could pick up YAC.

What evidence do you have to support that statement?  Concerning Brady, he had a completely new system in TB and enjoyed career years; conversely, the system you claim was culpable for his success has been abysmal since his departure.  The architect of said system, now has a record of 82-98 without Tom Brady. QBs like Brady and Manning are successful wherever they go, while their OCs like McDaniels and Adam Case are duds.  It should be clear as day the QB is more important to the system, than the system is to the QB.  In short, good QBs are going to be good, regardless of the system. 

"save for the randy moss years, tom was never exactly airing it out. he was hitting guys underneath that could pick up YAC"

This statement is just false.   

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/tom-brady-passes-over-20-yards-by-year

Brady is probably not the guy you want to use to prove that QB needs elite WRs to be successful, or an Oline for that matter. 

Quote from: MightyGiants on May 04, 2024, 07:13:10 AM2011 was a bit of an anomaly.   The Giants were just 9-7 during the regular season.  Frankly, they didn't even look as good as their record most of the time.  However, health and the playoffs inspired much better play from the offensive line, which helped propel the Giants to their 4th Super Bowl trophy.

I'll grant you that point; however, that's not the point being discussed here. The point was made that high-performing Oline(s) were the most critical component to Eli's and Brady's success, during thier primes. Clearly, that statement is factually false. 

BTW, Eli was fairly consistent between 2008 and 15, regardless of his oline rankings:

2008*   27   NYG   QB   16   289   479   60.3   3238   21   10   86.4   66.9   PB
2009   28   NYG   QB   16   317   509   62.3   4021   27   14   93.1   71.7   
2010   29   NYG   QB   16   339   539   62.9   4002   31   25   85.3   57.7   
2011*   30   NYG   QB   16   359   589   61   4933   29   16   92.9   64.2   AP CPoY-6, PB
2012*   31   NYG   QB   16   321   536   59.9   3948   26   15   87.2   67   PB
2013   32   NYG   QB   16   317   551   57.5   3818   18   27   69.4   38.6   
2014   33   NYG   QB   16   379   601   63.1   4410   30   14   92.1   61   
2015*   34   NYG   QB   16   387   618   62.6   4432   35   14   93.6   57.9   PB

Age clearly caught up with him during the 2016+ seasons...

Quote from: TONKA56 on May 04, 2024, 06:50:21 AMDon't forget also that in 2011 Victor Cruz exploded onto the scene from nowhere. Defenses had no answer for Cruz, Nicks, and Manningham and had to pick thier poison. Meanwhile Jake Ballard developed a penchant for the amazing clutch catch. 

So I'd say Manning, JPP, and Cruz carried the Giants to the playoffs. 

No doubt, Tonka.  I was merely responding to false-narrative that Brady and Manning required high-performing Olines to be successful.  Cruz was as integral to the Giants' success as JPP, but no player was as important as Eli...what a great year he had!