What kind of math is Saquon using

[CVA14]

AZ: Nice analysis. Illuminating.

[True Blue]

One reason might be that the variance between RB's performance is not that big?  Among RBs with more than 200 carries the top YPC is 5.3 while the lowest is 3.9, with a median of 4.5.  That seems like a lot, but over 20 carries, between the top and bottom it is a difference of only 28 yards.  And between the top and median it is only 16 yards on 20 carries.  When even the worst ranked offense averaged total yards of 280, and the best averaged 413, and the median is about 348.  28 yards doesn't seem like much, in the total picture.  So how much extra should a team pay for that 16 or 28 yards?

The thing is, those 28 yards will matter a whole lot at the goal line and some 3rd and shorts, those extra yards are alot more valuable than you think, plus the median number means about half of the backs in the formula are likely getting more yards as well.

Those 28 yards can win games by extending those drives, or more likely the goal line carries punching it in for points

[Painter]

One reason might be that the variance between RB's performance is not that big?  Among RBs with more than 200 carries the top YPC is 5.3 while the lowest is 3.9, with a median of 4.5.  That seems like a lot, but over 20 carries, between the top and bottom it is a difference of only 28 yards.  And between the top and median it is only 16 yards on 20 carries.  When even the worst ranked offense averaged total yards of 280, and the best averaged 413, and the median is about 348.  28 yards doesn't seem like much, in the total picture.  So how much extra should a team pay for that 16 or 28 yards?

It not about comparing the value/productivity of one RB with another tag-wise, no distinction occurs there re the tag, but rather why is it that only P/K cost less to tag than a RB (almost half that of most positions, and more than half that of a LB- and worse if you have been a Giants fan most of the time- than the other positions on O and D? It is the position for which we are most likely to see a player tagged (or traded) if he's that well-regarded and to then focus on how much will be guaranteed and for how long.

Cheers!

[brownelvis54]

"There's no real movement on a contract yet, but neither side is panicking because they have about a month until that July 17 training camp deadline. Barkley is due to make $10.1 million. He wants more security on a long-term deal. I'm told his asks have been pretty reasonable," Fowler said on "SportsCenter." "He just wants a good structure and a guarantee. He doesn't want flimsy guarantees, and he wants something that will pay him out in the first couple of years as, you know, a well-accomplished back and Pro Bowl-type player. The Giants ownership really values Barkley. They see him as a potential Giant for life, so could step in to try to get something done closer to the deadline."



So what's the holdup?

Barkley reportedly rejected a deal that would have paid him up to $14 million per year with incentives. The Giants pulled the offer after that. Then, after assigning the franchise tag to Barkley in March, the running back market crashed. His value, per Spotrac, is listed at $12.3 million per year.



https://giantswire.usatoday.com/2023/06/20/are-saquon-barkleys-requests-from-new-york-giants-reasonable/

[DaveBrown74]

"There's no real movement on a contract yet, but neither side is panicking because they have about a month until that July 17 training camp deadline. Barkley is due to make $10.1 million. He wants more security on a long-term deal. I'm told his asks have been pretty reasonable," Fowler said on "SportsCenter." "He just wants a good structure and a guarantee. He doesn't want flimsy guarantees, and he wants something that will pay him out in the first couple of years as, you know, a well-accomplished back and Pro Bowl-type player. The Giants ownership really values Barkley. They see him as a potential Giant for life, so could step in to try to get something done closer to the deadline."



So what's the holdup?

Barkley reportedly rejected a deal that would have paid him up to $14 million per year with incentives. The Giants pulled the offer after that. Then, after assigning the franchise tag to Barkley in March, the running back market crashed. His value, per Spotrac, is listed at $12.3 million per year.



https://giantswire.usatoday.com/2023/06/20/are-saquon-barkleys-requests-from-new-york-giants-reasonable/

Need to see what Cook gets paid. If Cook gets something like $8m per, to me Barkley is no longer worth $12m per. He's not 50% better than Cook.

[GloryDays]

This would not be the first time a player or their inept agent makes such a stupid gamble.. Not too long ago, another name player (RB) whose name I can't recall made the same dumb move... he stood out game after game and the whole season and eventually got washed out of NFL.

[DaveBrown74]

This would not be the first time a player or their inept agent makes such a stupid gamble.. Not too long ago, another name player (RB) whose name I can't recall made the same dumb move... he stood out game after game and the whole season and eventually got washed out of NFL.

Unfortunately, Barkley has a history of making less than stellar (or at least not very well timed) decisions around his personal finances.


In summer of 2021, it was reported that he did this:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/giants-saquon-barkley-will-convert-marketing-income-to-bitcoin.html


Which ultimately led to this a year later:

https://gmenhq.com/2022/06/22/saquon-barkley-bitcoin-pepsi-nike-endorsements/

[killarich]

It is not like that is "free" money. He has to play for a team which he feels isn't showing him that he's the best player on the team.

Barkley would probably be back stronger and better than ever. Remember he hardly played his 2nd year and came back too early 3rd year. so he has only really played 2 years. Barkley is holding all the cards here. This team isn't magically going to become a high octane offense overnight via the passing game if they ever become that. 

Silly , you cant use the fact that in your scenario 2 of his seasons dont count

If anything that is something that can be used against him....

1. It's due to INJURIES

2. With your logic is only 2 years of play


I want him here long term but he def. Does not hold the cards

[sxdxca38]

Unfortunately, Barkley has a history of making less than stellar (or at least not very well timed) decisions around his personal finances.


In summer of 2021, it was reported that he did this:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/giants-saquon-barkley-will-convert-marketing-income-to-bitcoin.html


Which ultimately led to this a year later:

https://gmenhq.com/2022/06/22/saquon-barkley-bitcoin-pepsi-nike-endorsements/

Hi Dave,

Yeah, I remember reading those articles a while back as well. He seems to not be content with what his endorsement money and current/potential salary are paying him, he wants more a lot more.

As he put it generational wealth.

Well you can get burned playing with fire, and as the articles brought out he got burned pretty bad by losing over 5 million.

I hope he learns his lesson, but we will see

[brownelvis54]

This would not be the first time a player or their inept agent makes such a stupid gamble.. Not too long ago, another name player (RB) whose name I can't recall made the same dumb move... he stood out game after game and the whole season and eventually got washed out of NFL.

Levon Bell? He was the running back for Pittsburgh Steelers and sat out an entire year and went to the New York Jets never was the same.

[Painter]

Let's get at least 2 things straight: Barkley isn't holding any cards, and there is no gamble involved. He will take whatever is the Giants best offer if it's still available- it won't a penny more- or some slightly lesser number while trying to maximize how much of it they are willing to GUARANTEE, and for how long if it all does go well. It's not about how much more than the $10.1 tag million but- spin it any way you like- how much GUARANTEED money he and Miale end up with come 7/17.

The market-setter, Mr. McCaffrey has a 3-year deal with the 49ers which, unless renegotiated, will pay him $12 million per with not one red-cent of it GUARANTEED. Should he become injured or unproductive, the only cost in saying Bye Bye is that of the draft capital traded, however much that proves to be.

Cheers!

[files58]

Let's get at least 2 things straight: Barkley isn't holding any cards, and there is no gamble involved. He will take whatever is the Giants best offer if it's still available- it won't a penny more- or some slightly lesser number while trying to maximize how much of it they are willing to GUARANTEE, and for how long if it all does go well. It's not about how much more than the $10.1 tag million but- spin it any way you like- how much GUARANTEED money he and Miale end up with come 7/17.

The market-setter, Mr. McCaffrey has a 3-year deal with the 49ers which, unless renegotiated, will pay him $12 million per with not one red-cent of it GUARANTEED. Should he become injured or unproductive, the only cost in saying Bye Bye is that of the draft capital traded, however much that proves to be.

Cheers!

This. Since McCaffrey has no guaranteed money why would any of the other franchises offer any guaranteed money to a RB? Life sucks sometimes if you can consider earning $10MM+ sucking.

[coggs]

The thing is, those 28 yards will matter a whole lot at the goal line and some 3rd and shorts, those extra yards are alot more valuable than you think, plus the median number means about half of the backs in the formula are likely getting more yards as well.

Those 28 yards can win games by extending those drives, or more likely the goal line carries punching it in for points

But that is why you need to look at the big picture.  Being able to pick up 2 yards on 3rd and 1 consistently, is more important than the guy who can pick up 15-20 yards on 1st down twice a game.  Secondly, the short yardage is a combo.  Play call, execution by the OLine at the point of attack, QB selling deception to freeze the LB for an extra 1/4-1/2 second, and RB's willingness to lower his shoulder and just get to the sticks rather than try to make a read to where there might (most likely not) be an opening to bust a big play. 

[jerseyguy]

While not always the best indicator of what may happen, it's useful to look at the past.  I've never seen an RB sit out a year and recognize some kind of financial windfall the following year.  The only real example I can remember is Le'Veon Bell.  He did get his second contract but it was not a blockbuster.  He got cut after 2 years and was a shell of his former self.  History shows that the Steelers probably got that one right. 

There's really nothing for Barkley to gain by sitting out the year.  Teams are showing reluctance across the board so there's a high potential that he won't find whatever it is he thinks he's worth on the open market.  He'd lose a year of salary and let us not forget - the Giants could, in theory, franchise tag him again a second year in a row at a 20% increase. 

What Barkley should do is demand that the Giants do not franchise him 2 years in a row as a compromise to his playing this year, and then bet big on himself to go out and have a monster year and put himself in the best position to hit the market with high value.  Barkley can, and should, do whatever he thinks is best for him and his family.  But a smart man knows the better part of valor is discretion.

Barkley is too old to sit out a year, he is already on the back nine of a RBs career and IMO is getting bad advice from his agent...

[Painter]

This. Since McCaffrey has no guaranteed money why would any of the other franchises offer any guaranteed money to a RB? Life sucks sometimes if you can consider earning $10MM+ sucking.

The answer lies in the math which while the subject of this thread seems beyond most folks who seem more interested in their own theories and judgements than with numbers, or at least those involving actual compensation.

McCaffrey is playing on a four-year, $64.1 million contract with the Carolina Panthers, including a $21,500,000 signing bonus, $38,162,500 guaranteed. Divide by 4 and we get that  $16 million number of which $26.5 is already in his bank thanks to Carolna.

That leaves the 49ers owing McCaffrey $37.6 million for the next 3 years which includes an even $12 million per year as long as they keep him with ZERO of it guaranteed except for little over a million if injured and released before the season.

Thus, in essence McCaffery was guaranteed about $37.6 million of a possible $64 million or as it now stands, 57.3%. of the total contract amount.

The question now with Barkley is whether the Giants are willing to guarantee him $25-27 million over the next 2 years or only the $22 million for which he'd be guaranteed with 2 years of tag money. Or even less in form of guarantees rather than as incentives.

He can do whatever he chooses, dumb, smart, or otherwise but it has nothing to do with so called, leverage.

In any case, there are no best-informed Giants fans on this topic, fer sure.

Cheers!