Daniel Jones' latest ranking by NFL coaches and executives

[AZGiantFan]

Every coach from high school to the pros can break down film but it does not mean they can find or predict talent as that gets into intangible qualities as well which many coaches have outright failed at.

Example head coaches who thought they he can turn around Jeff George or Jay Cutler who have been dumpster fires every previous place they had been.

The whole "experience in NFL or football" matters argument is flawed.  I'd argue a Navy SEAL instructor at Coronado would have a higher success rate not selecting busts in the NFL than 95% of coaches and GMs.  Why?  Because they pay more attention to intangible qualities that would be kikely to create a bust and would pay less attention to and overvalue physical attributes.

Just curious, but have you watched much JT?  Because to my untutored eye he does much more than just break down film.  But maybe it is just me.

[Philosophers]

This exercise isn't about rating incoming prospects though. It's about evaluating current NFL QBs, most of whom have put years of play on tape at this level. While I have all the respect in the world for Navy SEALs, I highly doubt a randomly picked Navy SEAL instructor would have a better ability to rate established NFL players than people like Brian Daboll, Andy Reid, Howie Roseman, Joe Schoen, or any number of other currently active NFL head coaches, coordinators, GMs, or other front office execs and QB-specific analytics people.

And I certainly think people who have spent their lives in football and have climbed up to the top of the ladder, beating out the competition every step of the way to land these top positions are better at this than random pundits, writers, YouTubers, bloggers, and clickbait-seeking talking head types, many of whose rankings get posted here throughout the summer and frequently discussed in considerable detail.

Isn't it really about hitting high success rate of which evaluating talent is only part of it.

NFL people fail all the time.  Bellichick is the best of all time and look at all his failureS.  Roseman picked Jalin Reagor who was a major bust.  Where they fail is their inability to evaluate intangibles.  I mean how did the Giants miss so badly on Kadarius Toney?  All the talent in the world which anyone could see watching his college career but he was a very immature player.  How'd they miss that?  Never played his way out of a coach's doghouse.  A SEAL instructor is trained to find the mental makeup of candidates.  I'd take them anyday to pick my team.

[DaveBrown74]

Isn't it really about hitting high success rate of which evaluating talent is only part of it.

NFL people fail all the time.  Bellichick is the best of all time and look at all his failureS.  Roseman picked Jalin Reagor who was a major bust.  Where they fail is their inability to evaluate intangibles.  I mean how did the Giants miss so badly on Kadarius Toney?  All the talent in the world which anyone could see watching his college career but he was a very immature player.  How'd they miss that?  Never played his way out of a coach's doghouse.  A SEAL instructor is trained to find the mental makeup of candidates.  I'd take them anyday to pick my team.

Obviously every person in the NFL responsible for picking players has multiple failures. Nobody gets everything right, including in a given year. That goes without saying. If you're saying a SEAL with no professional background in football whatsoever is going to be right about incoming NFL prospects at a higher rate over a meaningful time sample than a seasoned, respected NFL scout or GM, then I'd disagree with that pretty strongly. And that's not because I disagree at all with your point that SEALs are experts at sussing out intangible strengths and weaknesses. On the contrary, I have no doubt that that's true. I just think that is only one aspect of evaluating a prospect. There is a huge technical football side of it too, and the gap between the guy who spent his life excelling in football acumen and the guy with no professional background is going to be way better at the football aspect of it.

With that said,  would bringing in retired SEAL instructors as consultants to help with interviews be a good idea? Sure - I'd be all for that. I'm sure they could add significant value to the process. I just don't buy that, by themselves, they'd be better at picking players than someone like Joe Schoen or Howie Roseman.

[AZGiantFan]

Isn't it really about hitting high success rate of which evaluating talent is only part of it.

NFL people fail all the time.  Bellichick is the best of all time and look at all his failureS.  Roseman picked Jalin Reagor who was a major bust.  Where they fail is their inability to evaluate intangibles.  I mean how did the Giants miss so badly on Kadarius Toney?  All the talent in the world which anyone could see watching his college career but he was a very immature player.  How'd they miss that?  Never played his way out of a coach's doghouse.  A SEAL instructor is trained to find the mental makeup of candidates.  I'd take them anyday to pick my team.

This seems like an apples to carburetors comparison.  Even if everything you say is true, a team of Seal instructors have 24 weeks of intensity over which to make that judgement.  And even with all of that, and with drop-outs along the way, only 25% survive Hell Week and become Seals.  Ultimately it is the process that makes the judgement.  A Seal instructor couldn't possibly assess the determination and desire, which are at the heart of Seal training and ultimate qualification, with the level of player contact afforded scouts and GMs.

The Seal training and assessment has nothing in common with the NFL scouting and drafting process. 

[Philosophers]

This seems like an apples to carburetors comparison.  Even if everything you say is true, a team of Seal instructors have 24 weeks of intensity over which to make that judgement.  And even with all of that, and with drop-outs along the way, only 25% survive Hell Week and become Seals.  Ultimately it is the process that makes the judgement.  A Seal instructor couldn't possibly assess the determination and desire, which are at the heart of Seal training and ultimate qualification, with the level of player contact afforded scouts and GMs.

The Seal training and assessment has nothing in common with the NFL scouting and drafting process. 

The instructors identify the weaker candidates by being trained to look for personality flaws then dial up the intensity specific to that candidate which washes them out as part of the process.  I spent time with them in Coronado discussing this very point.

Identifying talent crosses silos whether they be sports, different industries, etc.  It is about observational awareness.

We can agree to disagree.

[AZGiantFan]

We can agree to disagree.

 

[todge]

David Carr was benched for poor play. Murray was terrible pretty much the entire year. When
I see those two ranked higher than DJ, I refuse to put any credibility in this list.


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[Philosophers]

Truly believe DJ will be top 12 this year.  With new additions and year 2 familiarity with coaches and a new contract, think it will come together for him especially since his camp is going so well.

[Jclayton92]

Truly believe DJ will be top 12 this year.  With new additions and year 2 familiarity with coaches and a new contract, think it will come together for him especially since his camp is going so well.

either that or our defense is going to be trash.