PFF does not think much of the 2023 NY Giants

[MightyGiants]

The rank their roster 20th overall and are taking the under with a 7.5 over and under win total proposition.   I think this is some pretty poor work by PFF.  From their overreliance on "regression to the mean" (what "mean" are they actually referring to?!?) to their belief that the Giants offense (despite all the evidence in terms of roster building to the contrary) will be a strong run team (they also failed to notice the shift from run first to pass first as the 2022 season wore on).  I can't ding them on the X-factor but I do think the back 7 is likey (but not guaranteed) to be better than PFF thinks.


Biggest strength in 2023: Rushing Attack

Brian Daboll leaned on the running game in his first year at the helm. Led by a healthy Saquon Barkley and the surprise emergence of Daniel Jones' legs as a weapon, the Giants bullied their way into the playoffs. Their running game could be even better if their other young offensive linemen (Evan Neal, John Michael Schmitz) develop on the same track as stud left tackle Andrew Thomas.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Back seven on defense

The Giants have a talented defensive line, but their back seven leaves a lot to be desired. Their linebackers were the fourth-lowest graded group in the NFL while their safeties were second-worst. The corners were a little better at 22nd, Adoree' Jackson being a bright spot. Their end results masked the low-grading profile of this unit, and they will need to be better on the back end to avoid regression to the mean in close games.

X-Factor for 2023: TE Darren Waller

The Giants sent a third-round pick to Las Vegas for Waller. He brings needed athleticism and versatility to their tight end room. Giants tight ends ranked bottom 10 in receiving grade, receptions and receiving yards during the 2022 regular season. Waller should be an excellent scheme fit working across the field in Daboll's system. Health is the key for Waller, as he's missed 14 games over the last two years after two terrific seasons in 2019 and 2020. A healthy Waller would be huge for an offense searching for big plays through the air.

Rookie to watch: CBs Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins III

Banks was the third-ranked corner on PFF's big board. He is an athletic freak with the potential to be a CB1 if he's developed properly. Hawkins III is a 6-foot-3 sixth-round pick who New York is hoping brings a Tariq Woolen-like impact. He's impressed in camp so far as well, and the Giants could very well start rookies at both outside cornerback spots to start the season.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Under

The Giants are due for some regression to the mean. They finished 9-7-1 despite being the fourth-lowest graded team in the NFL overall. They're heavily reliant on the running game and their back seven on defense has major question marks. A last-place finish in the east wouldn't be that shocking.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-roster-rankings-strengths-weaknesses-x-factors-rookies-to-watch#PHI

[DaveBrown74]

Haha. This thread will bring out some serious vitriol directed at PFF. Many here already don't like them as it is.

[Slugsy-Narrows]

Haha. This thread will bring out some serious vitriol directed at PFF. Many here already don't like them as it is.

We all know their system has MAJOR FLAWS!

Take it with a grain of salt

[MightyGiants]

Haha. This thread will bring out some serious vitriol directed at PFF. Many here already don't like them as it is.

I can only speak for myself but I don't pair vitriol with disagreement.  I don't agree with what PFF is saying, but that doesn't mean I dislike them or will dismiss future comments.  I just don't think that PFF got their assessment right. 

[DaveBrown74]

The reality is the PFF take on this Giants' season is pretty much in line with even many people believed prior to the start of camp. There were many here who had the view that the 2023 team could be superior to the 2022 team but might still end up with a slightly worse record, like 8-9 or even 7-10. The rational was that they had gotten fairly lucky in a number of close games last year in what was a significantly easier schedule than this year's appears to be, and that they could see some mean reversion. This is a team that finished 3-6-1 after a 6-1 start against (mostly) bad teams like the Bears, Texans, Panthers, and Titans, etc. A number of the wins were close and saw some fortuitous things go our way.

While I am more optimistic than PFF is based on the roster upgrades and what I have seen in camp clips and preseason games, I don't think their view is that far out of line with what many were saying as recently as six weeks ago. Should opinions change that much based on some camp clips and preseason games? Perhaps they should, but I'm not sure it's right to say that the Giants are some mortal lock to win 10-plus games. Anyone who feels 100% sure of that can make some nice money for themselves by betting the season over/under of 7.5.

[MightyGiants]

The reality is the PFF take on this Giants' season is pretty much in line with even many people believed prior to the start of camp. There were many here who had the view that the 2023 team could be superior to the 2022 team but might still end up with a slightly worse record, like 8-9 or even 7-10. The rational was that they had gotten fairly lucky in a number of close games last year in what was a significantly easier schedule than this year's appears to be, and that they could see some mean reversion. This is a team that finished 3-6-1 after a 6-1 start against (mostly) bad teams like the Bears, Texans, Panthers, and Titans, etc. A number of the wins were close and saw some fortuitous things go our way.

While I am more optimistic than PFF is based on the roster upgrades and what I have seen in camp clips and preseason games, I don't think their view is that far out of line with what many were saying as recently as six weeks ago. Should opinions change that much based on some camp clips and preseason games? Perhaps they should, but I'm not sure it's right to say that the Giants are some mortal lock to win 10-plus games. Anyone who feels 100% sure of that can make some nice money for themselves by betting the season over/under of 7.5.

Jeff,

A lot can change in 6 weeks.  Here were some of the questions/concerns 6 weeks ago

1)  who would be CB number 3?   You had Banks and Adoree, but Hawkins was a complete surprise

2) Would Evan Neal take a step up?   All indications are he has improved over last season

3)  How much would Hyatt contribute?  Many considered him raw and the product of a gimmick offense. Indications are that is not the case

4)  Would Jones take another step up?   All indications are he has

5) Not a question but 6 weeks ago Simmons and Basham were not on the roster

6) Who would replace Love?   That was a big concern that has been eased by the emergence of Pinnock


Collectively these are some major and significant developments that would understandably have people looking at the Giants in a more positive light than 6 weeks ago.

[Jolly Blue Giant]

PFF creates mathematical algorithms that can be valuable for analysis - more so for individual players than for groups of players. However, no math model can measure heart, coaching, and sheer luck

The game has to be played to know the outcome. Every game is affected by injuries, dumb mistakes, out-scheming (or bad scheming), wind and other unfavorable environmental conditions...not to mention, funny bounces from an oblong ball that has a mind of its own

[madbadger]

It's a good thing the games are played on the field and not on paper. Pre-season predictions never hold up through the season regardless of predictor.

There are always a small handful of teams that grossly underperform expectation and several more that exceed them. We'll know how accurate PFF Giants prediction is by mid November. Till then I'm not going to give it a second thought.

[DaveBrown74]

Jeff,

A lot can change in 6 weeks.  Here were some of the questions/concerns 6 weeks ago

1)  who would be CB number 3?   You had Banks and Adoree, but Hawkins was a complete surprise

2) Would Evan Neal take a step up?   All indications are he has improved over last season

3)  How much would Hyatt contribute?  Many considered him raw and the product of a gimmick offense. Indications are that is not the case

4)  Would Jones take another step up?   All indications are he has

5) Not a question but 6 weeks ago Simmons and Basham were not on the roster

6) Who would replace Love?   That was a big concern that has been eased by the emergence of Pinnock


Collectively these are some major and significant developments that would understandably have people looking at the Giants in a more positive light than 6 weeks ago.

All valid and strong points. To be clear, I don't agree with the PFF take. I feel like it is stale at this point. Had I read that take in late June I doubt I would have reacted as strongly.

One question regarding point number 2: Are there really enough data points to suggest that Neal is going to improve materially this year? I know just about all of us believe he will, but has he exhibited that throughout camp and in a material number of preseason snaps? I feel like between the concussion and the occasional report that the defense had its way with the offense in practice, the data on him is a bit murky. That said I'm just asking, as I know you have attended practices. I'm not making any statement to the contrary.

[MightyGiants]

All valid and strong points. To be clear, I don't agree with the PFF take. I feel like it is stale at this point. Had I read that take in late June I doubt I would have reacted as strongly.

One question regarding point number 2: Are there really enough data points to suggest that Neal is going to improve materially this year? I know just about all of us believe he will, but has he exhibited that throughout camp and in a material number of preseason snaps? I feel like between the concussion and the occasional report that the defense had its way with the offense in practice, the data on him is a bit murky. That said I'm just asking, as I know you have attended practices. I'm not making any statement to the contrary.

Jeff,

From what I saw in camp and his time in PS games, I think Evans has improved.  I don't think he will be the liability that hampered the offense as he was last season.  Will he be as good as his draft status would indicate?  That is still to be determined.

[beaugestus]

I think we have to keep in mind that with all their numbers it's all in the past. Not to taking into account the experience it takes to learn how to play in the NFL. Along with the physical maturation these players in their early 20s will go through. As we have seen sometimes it's about how much they want it.

[RelaxTension]

Jeff,

From what I saw in camp and his time in PS games, I think Evans has improved.  I don't think he will be the liability that hampered the offense as he was last season.  Will he be as good as his draft status would indicate?  That is still to be determined.

I really hope you are correct with this..
As for the ranking I never take any stock in these type things especially before the season has started.

[GMenRF]

The rank their roster 20th overall and are taking the under with a 7.5 over and under win total proposition.  I think this is some pretty poor work by PFF.  From their overreliance on "regression to the mean" (what "mean" are they actually referring to?!?) to their belief that the Giants offense (despite all the evidence in terms of roster building to the contrary) will be a strong run team (they also failed to notice the shift from run first to pass first as the 2022 season wore on).  I can't ding them on the X-factor but I do think the back 7 is likey (but not guaranteed) to be better than PFF thinks.


Biggest strength in 2023: Rushing Attack

Brian Daboll leaned on the running game in his first year at the helm. Led by a healthy Saquon Barkley and the surprise emergence of Daniel Jones' legs as a weapon, the Giants bullied their way into the playoffs. Their running game could be even better if their other young offensive linemen (Evan Neal, John Michael Schmitz) develop on the same track as stud left tackle Andrew Thomas.

Biggest weakness in 2023: Back seven on defense

The Giants have a talented defensive line, but their back seven leaves a lot to be desired. Their linebackers were the fourth-lowest graded group in the NFL while their safeties were second-worst. The corners were a little better at 22nd, Adoree' Jackson being a bright spot. Their end results masked the low-grading profile of this unit, and they will need to be better on the back end to avoid regression to the mean in close games.

X-Factor for 2023: TE Darren Waller

The Giants sent a third-round pick to Las Vegas for Waller. He brings needed athleticism and versatility to their tight end room. Giants tight ends ranked bottom 10 in receiving grade, receptions and receiving yards during the 2022 regular season. Waller should be an excellent scheme fit working across the field in Daboll's system. Health is the key for Waller, as he's missed 14 games over the last two years after two terrific seasons in 2019 and 2020. A healthy Waller would be huge for an offense searching for big plays through the air.

Rookie to watch: CBs Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins III

Banks was the third-ranked corner on PFF's big board. He is an athletic freak with the potential to be a CB1 if he's developed properly. Hawkins III is a 6-foot-3 sixth-round pick who New York is hoping brings a Tariq Woolen-like impact. He's impressed in camp so far as well, and the Giants could very well start rookies at both outside cornerback spots to start the season.

Over/Under 7.5 win total: Under

The Giants are due for some regression to the mean. They finished 9-7-1 despite being the fourth-lowest graded team in the NFL overall. They're heavily reliant on the running game and their back seven on defense has major question marks. A last-place finish in the east wouldn't be that shocking.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-roster-rankings-strengths-weaknesses-x-factors-rookies-to-watch#PHI

You know its a bad take when they are forecasting this team to be a rush heavy offense.

The lone single drive with the starters should have told everyone loud and clear that we will be airing it out more.  Almost all of the upgrades and additions with the exception of Gray, has been on the pass offense.

Some Bills fans have complained of Daboll relying on the pass more than the run.  You know it killed this staff not to be able to air it out last year.

[True Blue]

This article/assessment and the discussion within this thread, is a good explanation as to why I think PFF is a bunch of nonsense on its own. Even if they end up being right they are an absolute joke

[AZGiantFan]

While I've always appreciated their excellent collection of objective stats I've always felt that for a variety of reasons their subjective player grading methodology is deeply flawed.  But this analysis points up a different issue, namely that their understanding of the team is necessarily shallow as compared to the collective understanding of people who follow a team closely.