Big Blue Huddle

Quote from: Jclayton92 on December 26, 2022, 08:21:10 PMI've been keeping up with the next Gen stats all season and he's been right at 2.9 or right over 3.0 all season which for the most part was 30th or worse in the NFL. Recently he's done better and because of such he sits around 2.92 which probably 20th maybe 23rd. What it hasn't been is 5 seconds ever this season to my knowledge if that helps in your discussion.

Yeah, I know, but that didn't stop some folks from throwing around the 5 seconds number.  And please clarify, if you will, is that 2.9 figure time to throw or time in the pocket?

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on December 26, 2022, 04:06:49 PMNo disrespect taken at all. I appreciate the discussion and all of the points you are making.

I agree with you in spirit about not being willing to ignore data, but I do not think that just looking at sack numbers by themselves tells you all you need to know about how a line is doing in pass pro. If that were the case, then we would also be ignoring the data about how long Jones holds the ball. We would also be ignoring the fact that Jones is playing in a new scheme that may result in more sacks, as a price to pay for a benefit seen elsewhere. As a possible example of said benefit, Jones' INT rate is down significantly year-on-year. Could it be possible that Daboll and co have instructed him to try to avoid turnovers at all costs, even if it means taking more sacks? Do you know for sure that that is not the case?

To be clear, I am not saying I am definitely right and you are definitely wrong. I just don't think evaluating an O line's pass pro is as cut and dry down to sack rate as you do.

I did look at time to throw when folks were throwing 5 seconds around.  And saw that his time in the pocket was more like 2.5 seconds and the 5 seconds was due to how often he was running for his life. 

Obviously I don't 'know for sure' what he is being coached to do, - none of us do - but I think if Daboll was coaching him to avoid turnovers he would emphasize throwing the ball away, rather than taking sacks.  But that's just a surmise.

IAC that is all speculation, while the 40% increase in sacks is a hard number.  And I'm an empirical guy. 

I think Thomas is an excellent tackle but besides him I don't see anyone on our OL who is above average or, in most cases, even average when to comes to pass pro.  Neal has so far been a disappointment in that regard, particularly since his pass pro was supposed to be his strength, but he's just a rookie and can (hopefully) improve.  But the interior line is still a mess.

I'm copying this whole post and pasting it as a reply in the DJ thread to honor the mods wishes, plus it is a little off the topic of the thread

Quote from: TrueBlueFan on December 26, 2022, 12:59:14 PMAfter 4 years, with some of the same WRs that he should have chemistry with, and the best OL he has had, I would expect games like this a bit more often.

The only receivers who were even on the team last year are Barkley and Slayton.  And that "best OL he has had" has given up 3.1 sacks per game compared to last year's 2.2 sacks per game.  So I reject the premise.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/ol-power-rankings-2022/

Quote from: Jclayton92 on December 25, 2022, 03:15:05 PMI agree they're similar, even though I believe 2019 had better weapons, I think this staff is better.

I agree the staff is better than 2019, and a lot better than the 2020-2021 staff.  But the offensive roster is no better, and probably worse, IMO.

Quote from: Jclayton92 on December 25, 2022, 02:57:45 PMWhere would you rate the offense in 2019? The Barkley, Tete, Shep, Slayton, EE Offense with a line that was ranked like 19th. Do you think the production his rookie year is his ceiling, minus the fumbles, or could be his average yearly production with a stabilized offense?

The ranking of the 2019 offense is right about the same as this one.

2019: pts per game 18 - yards per game 23

2022: pts per game 20 - yards per game 20

Quote from: DaveBrown74 on December 25, 2022, 01:43:35 PMI think it is fair to say that there is no precise, widely-agreed upon definition of "franchise QB." Everyone has their own take on the phrase, which is fine. It's not a phrase with a precise definition.

To me, and this is just my personal opinion, I think it's hard to firmly declare any QB a "franchise QB" if he's not clearly top 10. If you start extending it beyond the top 10, you're getting to a point where you're close to saying that half or nearly half of the league's starters are "franchise QBs." I don't personally feel that way myself. I think the "franchise QB" label has a more exclusive scope than that. I think 10 is probably the most. Again, this is my personal opinion of the definition of the phrase, and I'm not saying those who disagree are wrong.

I do not see Jones as a top 10 QB this year, and I don't think many objective people do. I have felt and said for a while now that he is a middle of the road starter, which is hardly an insult or even being a "detractor." If someone says you're the 14th-17th best QB in the world, that's not exactly an insult in my book. But to me that's not a "franchise QB."

Yeah, these terms are horribly imprecise.  To me a franchise QB is a guy whose team doesn't think of replacing him.  Eli was rarely in the top ten of QBs but the Giants never thought seriously of replacing him until the end.  And, IMO he was elite for 2 playoff runs and the 2011 season.  But he was clearly a franchise QB, IMO.

The conundrum with DJ is that he is ranked 17 playing on an offense that is far below 17th.  And some blame him for not elevating the other players.  An elite QB can elevate a good offense to very good, and an average offense to a good offense, but I don't think the QB has been born who can elevate a bad offense to a very good offense.  I think DJ has elevated a bad offense to a slightly below offense.  And the question is, what could he elevate an average or good offense to.  And how would playing on such offenses change his ranking, because rankings are dynamic, not static.  He wouldn't be Mahomes in the KC offense, but I doubt he'd rank 17th.

Quote from: Rambo89 on December 25, 2022, 12:56:01 PMIf Jones feels that way let him walk.  While the Giants didn't provide him the perfect situation Jones didn't do everything he could to elevate those around him.

There is a vast gulf between a "perfect" situation and the garbage they saddled him with, up to and including this year, although the coaching HAS improved this year.  But the offensive roster hasn't.

Quote from: TDToomer on December 25, 2022, 12:42:15 PMI have no doubt that Jones will want to resign with the stable coaching staff he has now.

Time will tell.

Quote from: Slugsy-Narrows on December 25, 2022, 09:57:27 AMI mentioned this in another post!

Great minds, and all that.

Quote from: TDToomer on December 25, 2022, 10:29:21 AMI though Jones was fantastic yesterday outside of a rare interception. I was watching the game with my dad who was a big Jones critic and we both expect him to be resigned. 

But, it takes 2 to tango and he might not be all that interested in re-signing with a team that hasn't been stable coaching wise and that has failed, in 4 years, to put more than a couple of decent pieces around him.  And if he looks back and sees how they essentially wasted half of Eli's career with the same problems . . .  I guess it depends on whether he has faith that the new regime can reverse the failures of the last 10 years.

Given the expectation that the Jets are supposedly going to move on from Wilson, I wonder if they will be one of the team's that goes after DJ?

Daniel Jones needs to be able to throw over 300 yards and lead a 4th qtr drive with his passing.

Daniel Jones throws over 300 yards and leads a 4th qtr drive with his passing.

Not good enough.

Good game for DJ, but I like it better when he throws for 170 yards and the Giants win.

And I've made it no secret that I consider the first 2 wins of the season as flukes.  Well in my book, losing to a 61 yard walk-off cancels out one of the early flukes.

Quote from: Slugsy-Narrows on December 24, 2022, 08:40:22 AMJust proves Christmas miracles do happen   

Awww, c'mon, we agree about a lot of things.      

Quote from: Rambo89 on December 24, 2022, 09:02:32 AMJones has great command of an offense that is 22nd in total yards, 28th in passing yards and at the top of the league in fewest turnovers.  Put it all together and it says that Daniel Jones is a highly efficient game manager.

He could be elite if you gave him the 90's Cowboys offensive line, the 98 Vikings WR's, Marshall Faulk as his RB and Tony Gonzalez as his tight end. 

Fine, so long as you understand that is you saying that, not me.  I've never claimed he needs elites at every position, just a reasonable amount of quality on the ofense, something he has never had here.

Quote from: kingm56 on December 24, 2022, 12:30:55 AMI actually believe 90%+ agrees on DJs potential future. The fringes (he stinks or he'll be elite with a top-tier Wr) are minor.

I'm in a different 'fringe', apparently.  I think he could become elite on a team that has an offense with a reasonable amount of NFL-level quality.  And as I said before I'm not talking about the hyperbolic distortion some have read into this and claimed I want an elite guy at every position.

Alas, I think circumstances have made this impossible to occur for the Giants, because they needed to get to that point of a reasonable amount of quality on the offense while he was on his rookie contract and they didn't.  So now he is more valuable to a team that has this, but no QB, than he is to the Giants, who don't have this yet and need to build it out over the next year or two.  Letting DJ and Barkley walk would accelerate the build out.  IMO, needless to say.