Giants and the Alex Smith model

[MightyGiants]

I will add a couple of other thoughts:

1) I am not sure it's wise to rush to judgment and declare after three games the Giants need to draft a new QB

2) History has proven over and over again, it's a lot easier to say, "Just draft an elite QB", than actually drafting an elite QB.   There are plenty of elite QB prospects who are backups, on the practice squad or out of the game; the league is littered with them.

[Dgoodmantrublu]

You don't win Super Bowls by being timid at the position. Kerry Collins was a decent QB. We still sought to upgrade to Eli and that is why we won two more Super Bowls. We cannot be afraid of taking a shot at greatness.

I will add a couple of other thoughts:

1) I am not sure it's wise to rush to judgment and declare after three games the Giants need to draft a new QB

2) History has proven over and over again, it's a lot easier to say, "Just draft an elite QB", than actually drafting an elite QB.   There are plenty of elite QB prospects who are backups, on the practice squad or out of the game; the league is littered with them.

[MightyGiants]

You don't win Super Bowls by being timid at the position. Kerry Collins was a decent QB. We still sought to upgrade to Eli and that is why we won two more Super Bowls. We cannot be afraid of taking a shot at greatness.

You can extend that example further to where the Giants stuck with Eli despite the many doubters.

[Dgoodmantrublu]

Sure. But I need to see a daring QB. The checkdown charlie routine is getting very old. You just can't win big this way.

You can extend that example further to where the Giants stuck with Eli despite the many doubters.

[DaveBrown74]

You don't win Super Bowls by being timid at the position. Kerry Collins was a decent QB. We still sought to upgrade to Eli and that is why we won two more Super Bowls. We cannot be afraid of taking a shot at greatness.

I agree.

Also think about it from a purely economical point of view:

If $40mm/year is the current going price for a QB who has proven he's good but has not yet proven he is great, and that is roughly double the price of an elite or near-elite player at virtually all the other premium positions, why wouldn't you take a shot on a QB in the draft that you have a very strong view on? I understand roster building is important, but if you end up with two excellent QBs on the same roster, why is that a problem? Will it really be difficult to move on for a lions share of draft capital or another star player PLUS draft capital?

People thought the Eagles were foolish when they drafted Hurts in the second round despite already having Wentz. What are those people saying now?

[Rambo89]

I will add a couple of other thoughts:

1) I am not sure it's wise to rush to judgment and declare after three games the Giants need to draft a new QB

2) History has proven over and over again, it's a lot easier to say, "Just draft an elite QB", than actually drafting an elite QB.   There are plenty of elite QB prospects who are backups, on the practice squad or out of the game; the league is littered with them.

1) I believe that in the near future (3 seasons) the Giants will be in the market for a new QB.  I don't think it will be after this season unless the rest of the season goes completely in the tank.

2) This is definitely true.  It is easier said than done.  I don't think anyone would deny that.  But that doesn't mean you hold onto an average QB because of the fear that the next guy you target flops.  Unless you're a team that is satisfied with your average QB and the results they help you produce.

[MightyGiants]

Brian Daboll today


Q: Do you think too much pressure can cause a quarterback to see it when it's not there because it's just so often happening that they have to get sped up in the process.

A: In the pocket?

Q: Yeah.

A: I think there is always an element to that. When you can affect the quarterback, I think it speeds up things. Again, there is always when you are game planning, shorter routes, get it out quicker, less of the protection. You want to run deep routes, you have some more protection in. So, definitely an area that we've got to improve is making sure that we give our quarterback a clean pocket and it's not just always the line. There is backs involved, there is timing in the passing the game, there is receivers getting open, so it's really a collective thing when it comes to that.

[Philosophers]

When projecting the Draft I love how "deep" seems to mean automatically success in the NFL.  See Zach Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen.... as so-called depth in the position from college.

[Jclayton92]

When projecting the Draft I love how "deep" seems to mean automatically success in the NFL.  See Zach Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen.... as so-called depth in the position from college.

I would absolutely agree most years but because of the transfer portal/graduate rule and the covid year, this coming draft is pretty stacked.

1. Caleb Williams USC
2. Drake Maye N. Carolina
3. JJ Mccarthy Michigan
4. Quinn Ewers Texas
5. Micheal Penix Jr Washington
6. Sheddur Sanders Colorado
7. Jordan Travis FSU
8. Riley Leonard Duke
9. Bo Nix Oregon
10. Micheal Pratt Tulane
11. Tyler Van Dyke Miami
12. Sam Hartman ND

And that's leaving some guys off the list of draftable qbs. Yes they won't all be superstars but some teams are going to hit on this draft and find a Purdy because there are just too many available.

[kartanoman]

I will add a couple of other thoughts:

1) I am not sure it's wise to rush to judgment and declare after three games the Giants need to draft a new QB

2) History has proven over and over again, it's a lot easier to say, "Just draft an elite QB", than actually drafting an elite QB.  There are plenty of elite QB prospects who are backups, on the practice squad or out of the game; the league is littered with them.

I like your list, Rich @MightyGiants , and I wouldn't be so fast to compare Jones to Smith either since the latter had  to deal with injuries early in his career that would compare closer to Phil Simms. His gallantry, toughness and on-field leadership were evident as he was a clear choice as team captain for the 49ers and, although he wasn't Pro Bowl material in those early years, USA Today made him a clear-cut choice for their "All Joe Team" for two consecutive seasons (2011-12).

As for his first six seasons (i.e. 2005-10), Smith does align with Jones in that he had a new offensive system to learn every year, had incompetent head coaches (i.e. starting with Mike Nolan, who was fired midway through the 2008 season for coach Mike Singletary taking over the rest of the season and was offered the job full-time. Singletary lasted two full seasons before he was fired in 2010 and replaced by Jim Harbaugh in 2011) yet showed glimpses of promise which appeared to justify his #1 overall picking in the 2005 NFL draft.

Yet falling short in the 2011 NFC Championship, and getting off to a 6-2 start in 2012, Smith was knocked out in a game against the Rams and left concussed. Kaepernick took over and the teams ended the game in a draw. Kaepernick started the following week, played well and won. Harbaugh stuck with him, Smith never started another game for the 49ers, and we know how that all played out in the Super Bowl. There is no comparing Jones to Smith there. Smith was traded to the Chiefs and had five productive seasons under Andy Reid. But none of those went any further than the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The 2018 move to Washington is well documented, with his nasty injury, and near-miraculous comeback, and playing until he retired in 2020.

Alex Smith never won the big one. He came within an overtime period of getting to the big dance; however, fate was shining on the Giants' side that evening. The following season, he suffered a fate worse than Phil Simms experienced in 1990 when he returned from his concussion only to realize he lost his job for good. For what ... a 6-2 start? Well, even though it took a couple of years, at least Phil got his starting job back in 1993 and, although it ended two steps short of a dream season, to have that one final hurrah in Giant Big Blue makes that season one I will cherish for the rest of my life.

Right now the Giants and Daniel Jones are about where the 2007-08 49ers were at in their development and that includes both quarterbacks. There are more growing pains to be had and instant gratification turnarounds are very rare in this league. They take time and Schoen and Daboll are only at Phase II of the rebuild process. It doesn't always go perfectly and playing against two of the best defenses in the NFL have made that pretty obvious.

Finally, a model, or as we call it a "simulation," is an analysis of a product's (NOTE: in this case, a quarterback) functional performance over time taking into account a number of variables (NOTE: let's call them "environmental constraints"). There are no absolutes for a Daniel Jones at this stage of his career and, especially so, given the state of rebuild the team is in. So, the simulation needs to play out a bit and the variables the head coach programs into the product's (i.e. QB's) memory may alter the result as the season progresses.

I, for one, am expecting to see something completely different this coming weekend. I say so because it HAS to be different in order to yield an improved expected outcome.

Peace!

[Jclayton92]

I said it this past season, we shouldn't have resigned Jones or Barkley. Not because I don't like them, but because we havent had a full rebuild since before Coughlin. Just half way measures because a season ie 2016, 20222 gave us false hope. Every elite team that is elite right now built up from scratch besides KC but even they drafted a QB like the Eagles did while they had a QB. If you don't have a top 5-7 Qb then you need to keep drafting one until you do, while you build up the team around you.

You cannot win in the modern NFL without an elite QB. Yes you can possibly go on a run, but you can't have sustained success without a "Guy" and I'm sorry but Jones isn't a "Guy". There's nothing in 5 seasons to say he is one. At least the Carr's, and Goff's are putting up 4,000 30 and 10, we haven't had a QB come close to that in more than half a decade and yet we are supposed to be eternally optimistic?

I'll always root for the Giants and whoever is at QB but any other player on this team or any team not named Daniel Jones that had 1 good year and 3 1/4 bad years and we as a fan base would be looking for his replacement. The fan base already wants to run Neal out of town, and KT after less than a full year bc they both had injuries but are more than ok going on year 5 of below average QB play.

Just a thought.

[Dgoodmantrublu]

Smith had an unreal defense that carried him. He was not the reason for the success of those teams. And that is the model for Jones to succeed. But that is a problem because you can't maintain that talent level once a QB is paid.

I like your list, Rich @MightyGiants , and I wouldn't be so fast to compare Jones to Smith either since the latter had  to deal with injuries early in his career that would compare closer to Phil Simms. His gallantry, toughness and on-field leadership were evident as he was a clear choice as team captain for the 49ers and, although he wasn't Pro Bowl material in those early years, USA Today made him a clear-cut choice for their "All Joe Team" for two consecutive seasons (2011-12).

As for his first six seasons (i.e. 2005-10), Smith does align with Jones in that he had a new offensive system to learn every year, had incompetent head coaches (i.e. starting with Mike Nolan, who was fired midway through the 2008 season for coach Mike Singletary taking over the rest of the season and was offered the job full-time. Singletary lasted two full seasons before he was fired in 2010 and replaced by Jim Harbaugh in 2011) yet showed glimpses of promise which appeared to justify his #1 overall picking in the 2005 NFL draft.

Yet falling short in the 2011 NFC Championship, and getting off to a 6-2 start in 2012, Smith was knocked out in a game against the Rams and left concussed. Kaepernick took over and the teams ended the game in a draw. Kaepernick started the following week, played well and won. Harbaugh stuck with him, Smith never started another game for the 49ers, and we know how that all played out in the Super Bowl. There is no comparing Jones to Smith there. Smith was traded to the Chiefs and had five productive seasons under Andy Reid. But none of those went any further than the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The 2018 move to Washington is well documented, with his nasty injury, and near-miraculous comeback, and playing until he retired in 2020.

Alex Smith never won the big one. He came within an overtime period of getting to the big dance; however, fate was shining on the Giants' side that evening. The following season, he suffered a fate worse than Phil Simms experienced in 1990 when he returned from his concussion only to realize he lost his job for good. For what ... a 6-2 start? Well, even though it took a couple of years, at least Phil got his starting job back in 1993 and, although it ended two steps short of a dream season, to have that one final hurrah in Giant Big Blue makes that season one I will cherish for the rest of my life.

Right now the Giants and Daniel Jones are about where the 2007-08 49ers were at in their development and that includes both quarterbacks. There are more growing pains to be had and instant gratification turnarounds are very rare in this league. They take time and Schoen and Daboll are only at Phase II of the rebuild process. It doesn't always go perfectly and playing against two of the best defenses in the NFL have made that pretty obvious.

Finally, a model, or as we call it a "simulation," is an analysis of a product's (NOTE: in this case, a quarterback) functional performance over time taking into account a number of variables (NOTE: let's call them "environmental constraints"). There are no absolutes for a Daniel Jones at this stage of his career and, especially so, given the state of rebuild the team is in. So, the simulation needs to play out a bit and the variables the head coach programs into the product's (i.e. QB's) memory may alter the result as the season progresses.

I, for one, am expecting to see something completely different this coming weekend. I say so because it HAS to be different in order to yield an improved expected outcome.

Peace!

[Rambo89]

I would absolutely agree most years but because of the transfer portal/graduate rule and the covid year, this coming draft is pretty stacked.

1. Caleb Williams USC
2. Drake Maye N. Carolina
3. JJ Mccarthy Michigan
4. Quinn Ewers Texas
5. Micheal Penix Jr Washington
6. Sheddur Sanders Colorado
7. Jordan Travis FSU
8. Riley Leonard Duke
9. Bo Nix Oregon
10. Micheal Pratt Tulane
11. Tyler Van Dyke Miami
12. Sam Hartman ND

And that's leaving some guys off the list of draftable qbs. Yes they won't all be superstars but some teams are going to hit on this draft and find a Purdy because there are just too many available.

I know people are high on Caleb Williams and I'll admit I don't watch College football but I am skeptical about QBs from USC as I am QBs from Duke.  Certain schools have a history of having hyped QBs who end up flopping in the NFL. 

[DaveBrown74]

I know people are high on Caleb Williams and I'll admit I don't watch College football but I am skeptical about QBs from USC as I am QBs from Duke.  Certain schools have a history of having hyped QBs who end up flopping in the NFL. 

Very fair to be skeptical of USC QBs. OSU QBs have the same type of track record. At least USC produced Carson Palmer though, so it's not like they've never had anyone good.

Williams looks pretty legit to me. He has the ability to make Mahomes type throws across his body and on the run, and he's very athletic though he doesn't depend on his athleticism (ie he can stand in the pocket and deliver crisp, accurate, strong throws downfield).

Of some concern is that he's 6'1", which is not tiny, but it's hardly tall for a QB. He's about the same size as Jalen Hurts. Generally speaking I prefer QBs to be at least 6'2". And that is not to say that a sub 6'2" QB cannot be successful; obviously we all know the examples of QBs who are less than that height and have been good or in some cases elite, but the reality is it's a disadvantage all things being equal.

Predicting how good college QBs will be in the NFL is very difficult, as GMs and professional scouts get it wrong all the time, so for the average fan to think he has an edge is a bit silly. So with that disclaimer, I do think Williams will be good based on what I have seen, but you're right to flag the overall track record of QBs from that school. It is definitely not good.

[Dgoodmantrublu]

I think it is silly to scout colleges and not the player. He's not playing in the same system of years ago. He's playing for the same coach Jalen Hurts did. Guy has ridiculous arm talent and processes the field very well.